Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win MLS Cup: Eastern Conference
Photo from FC Cincinnati
Throughout the year, I did takeaways of the MLS season.
Then, the season got super muddled up and weird and I just lost focus.
Sue me!
But now, it’s playoff time. And the playoff format is a lot weirder this year!
There is a one game wild card round. The first round is a best of 3 but the rest is still single elimination?
I don’t know. It’s weird.
Still, it’s a wide open playoff format, and every team can or can not win the whole thing.
So let’s go over it all, starting with the Eastern Conference.
1. FC Cincinnati
Why They Will
Cincy are the Supporters Shield winners this year, their first trophy in MLS, and they are the deserving winners.
They were far and away the best team in MLS this year, and with an improved defense, they should be easy favorites to ride that solid defense (and league MVP Lucho Acosta) to a title.
Why They Won’t
Uh.
Shield winners don’t usually win MLS Cup as of late?
Look, this team is stacked offensively and defensively.
The way Cincy doesn’t win it all? One bad game in a single elimination format.
But hey, that’s MLS for you.
2. Orlando City SC
Why They Will
Great manager. Solid roster. Not really bad at any single thing.
That consistency is how you make a run in this tournament.
Why They Won’t
And for the first time this year, I get to use the phrase “match winner.”
If you haven’t read these in the past, “match winners” are players who, in a single elimination tournament, can turn a game on it’s head all by themselves.
If Miami made the playoffs, Messi is that type of player. He can win games single handily.
Orlando City really just doesn’t have those types of players.
Being a solid, consistent team is good. It worked for the Union for years.
But the Union also don’t have any championships to show for it…
3. Columbus Crew
Why They Will
The Crew score goals at will, and they are completely dominant at home.
Being the 3 seed means decent odds that they play many playoff games at home, which is a clear advantage for them.
Why They Won’t
The Crew also let in a lot of goals, and they are extremely average on the road.
Being the 3 seed means a good chance you face either Cincy or Orlando away, and that doesn’t bode too well for them.
4. Philadelphia Union
Why They Will
They are basically the exact same team as Orlando City, but they had a decent CCL run that affected their season heavily and hurt their standings.
This is still the Union team and main core that has won Supporters’ Shields and was mere seconds away from winning MLS Cup.
This is the one lower seed you really do not want to face.
Why They Won’t
Well, they haven’t ever and this team is not as good as the teams in the past.
Why would this year be any different?
5. New England Revolution
Why They Will
Gustavo Bou and Carlos Gil are still huge playmakers that can carry this team the distance.
Why They Won’t
Well, they lost their goalkeeper mid season to a transfer, and then went into horrible form after Bruce Arena was suspended and then resigned for unknown reasons.
That bad form cost them possibly 2nd in the East, and made their mountain that much harder to climb.
Too many things have gone wrong this year for the Revs.
6. Atlanta United
Why They Will
What wins games? Goals win games.
And Atlanta scored the 2nd most goals in the league this season, only one less than Columbus who is in 3rd.
Manager Gonzalo Pineda has this team playing excellent attacking soccer. It’s a joy to watch.
Why They Won’t
What wins championships? Defense wins championships.
And Atlanta’s defense is terrible. They have allowed more goals than any other playoff team, regardless of conference.
You’re not going to be able to simply outscore these teams.
7. Nashville SC
Why They Will
Gary Smith has once again set Nashville up to play stifling defense, and Hany Mukhtar is the reigning league MVP that can take over games by himself.
If he gets hot, Nashville is a crazy good sleeper pick this postseason.
Why They Won’t
Mukhtar is basically all they have offensively, and he’s not as good as he was last year.
Still very good! But it’s not going to be enough to take this team to the top.
8. New York Red Bulls
Why They Will
The underlying stats of the Red Bulls are really good!
Their expected goal difference this year is actually 5th in the league at +12.3. That’s really good!
It shows that they are playing excellent soccer. All they need is the results to match the data.
Why They Won’t
The results haven’t matched the data all year.
The Red Bulls are at 46 total expected goals this year.
They actually scored 36 goals.
The Red Bulls just don’t have the talent that they had in the past.
There’s no reason to expect that to change now.
9. Charlotte FC
Why They Will
Uh. Anybody can, I guess!
Karol Swiderski is really good!
Um.
Yeah.
Why They Won’t
This team just isn’t good.
The defense is bad. Their underlying stats are bad.
They’re a playoff team, and they do deserve to be that!
But it doesn’t mean they’re going to get anywhere near MLS Cup.
Eastern Conference Prediction
This has been an excellent year for Cincy, and it should continue all the way to MLS Cup.
But I’ve watched this game for a while. And I know how chaotic it loves being.
So, how does Columbus beating Cincy in the Hell Is Real Derby to ruin the dream season sound?
Columbus wins the Eastern Conference
