Why Every American Team Will/Will Not Win the World Series
Photo by Chris O’Meara from The Associated Press
It’s finally fall.
The weather is getting colder, football season is in full swing, and it is officially time for playoff baseball.
Last year, the Mariners and the Blue Jays gave us a classic ALCS to go to the World Series.
This year, they won’t be there at all.
So here are the six American League teams, and here’s why they all will, or will not, win the World Series.
Tampa Bay Rays
Why They Will
New year, same old Rays.
Apart from Junior Caminero, this team does not have star power or a big budget.
What they do have, is an insanely deep team, solid pitching from top to bottom, and a great manager in Kevin Cash.
It’s why a team that was expected to finish last in a very tough AL East is actually the top seed in the entire American League.
They also launched throwback away jerseys right before the postseason, hopefully as a soft launch to get back to their Devil Rays style.
Never underestimate the power of aesthetic support.
Why They Won’t
If there is a weak point on the Rays, it’s their bullpen, which has a -2.0 Wins Above Average (WAA) according to Baseball Reference.
A bad bullpen can tank a postseason run, and despite the Rays having solid bats all around, they don’t have a stacked lineup that can get them back into it if the bullpen struggles.
Cleveland Guardians
Why They Will
Fantastic pitching.
The Guardians team ERA+ of 110, which is top 10 in all of baseball.
A big part of that is their bullpen, who are 4th best in WAA.
You keep runs off the board, you’re going to win games.
Why They Won’t
You also need to score runs, which the Guardians don’t do well. At all.
Their OPS+ is 96, which is 6th worse in all of baseball, and they score 4.13 runs per game which is 5th worst in all of baseball.
Pitching is the most important part of playoff baseball, and the Guardians have it.
But you do still have to score.
Houston Astros
Why They Will
Yordan Alvarez is a stud, very well could be AL MVP (probably will be), and has shown that he can completely take over a game.
He’s a monster.
Why They Won’t
Unfortunately, Alvarez is only going to get 3 or 4 at bats per game, and the rest of the team, including the pitching, is bad.
So if the Astros somehow win the World Series after making the playoffs as the worst division winner ever (81-81), they’re either going to somehow turn it around, or Yordan Alvarez is going to have the greatest postseason we have ever seen.
I have my doubts.
New York Yankees
Why They Will
Their pitching is elite.
It feels like one of the best starting rotations the Yankees have had in a long while, and Cam Schlittler is the easy Cy Young winner in the AL this year.
In an American League that is far from having elite teams, having pitching that can completely shut teams down is massive.
Why They Won’t
Aaron Judge has been hurt all year long, and is hurt again.
He’s expected to come back for the Wild Card series, but how healthy is he truly?
Because even with the jokes about Judge’s postseason play being lackluster, the Yankees could still use a threatening bat like that.
It’s a team sport, and the Yankees have a great team.
But not having Judge probably cost the Yankees the division this year.
I can see it costing them a World Series if he’s not 100%.
Boston Red Sox
Why They Will
The Sox have good pitching and awesome bats.
The second best non pitching WAA in the league, the 9th best pitching WAA in the league, and a top 10 bullpen.
Even their runs saved above average is 4th in the league, so they’re good there as well.
Where’s the flaw?
Why They Won’t
Their defensive efficiency.
Sure, they have great fielding numbers to make sure teams don’t get across the plate against them, but their .693 efficiency in keeping runners off the basepaths is below league average.
If they give up easy base runners, it could bite them against the AL’s best.
Chicago White Sox
Why They Will
They have the power of God on their side now that The Pope is a White Sox fan who was at their last World Series appearance in 2005.
It doesn’t hurt that they’re solid basically everywhere on the field.
Why They Won’t
That’s all they are.
Solid.
They’re not great anywhere.
When was the last time a team won the entire World Series without being GREAT at everything?
I can’t see them going on a run to win the whole World Series.
