Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win the College Football Playoff
Photo by Sophia Kaplan from The Indiana Daily Student
The committee has spoken, and we have 12 teams that will fight for the college football national championship.
Some are returnees. Some are brand new entrants. But all of them (yes, all) deserve to be here.
But only one will.
Here is why each team will, or will not, win the national championship.
Indiana Hoosiers
Why They Will
Jeez. Where do we start?
Their offense runs through Fernando Mendoza, who is the Heisman winner.
Their defense is incredible.
Curt Cignetti is an outstanding coach.
They’re 13-0 and the Big 10 Champions after beating Ohio State.
Does that sum it all up?
Why They Won’t
Star defensive player Stephen Daley was injured during the celebrations after winning the Big 10 championship, and will miss the entire playoff.
That’s a devastating loss not just because of the player Daley is, but because this is Indiana.
They don’t have the recruiting classes of the true blue bloods where it can simply be “next man up.”
And in a postseason where it’s really hard to get a grasp on who the best team is, a loss like that could be crucial.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Why They Will
Defense wins championships, and this Ohio State defense is absolutely outstanding.
There’s not a single offense in this playoff that I think could score on this Ohio State defense.
It might be a boring route to a title, but the path is clearly there.
Why They Won’t
The Ohio State offense is 12th in SP+.
Considering there are over 130 FBS teams, that’s good!
But their quarterback Julian Sayin is a freshman, their two top receivers are dealing with some sort of injury, and their running game is good, not great.
We saw the offense struggle against Indiana, and they fell short despite a very good defensive performance.
All it takes is one off game, and we might end up crowning a new champion.
Georgia Bulldogs
Why They Will
A common theme of the top three (really, four) teams? Defense.
Georgia’s defense started rough, if you remember the absolute overtime classic between them and Tennessee and a loss to Alabama early in the year.
But late on?
Dominated Texas, dominated Georgia Tech, and dominated Alabama in the SEC title game.
They found the classic Georgia recipe again.
Why They Won’t
The top teams are built off their defense.
I trust Indiana’s offense.
I sort of trust Ohio State’s offense, as long as Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are healthy.
I don’t trust Georgia’s offense.
Gunner Stockton is a safe and sound QB, but their receivers aren’t reliable, and the offense isn’t exactly explosive.
There’s a lot of good defenses in this playoff.
If they take away the run game, Georgia might be toast.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Why They Will
I don’t think people realize just how good this defense is since they didn’t play in one of the power two conferences.
But I promise you, this is one of the best defenses in the country.
Led by linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and an incredible pass rush, it is hard to get past their front seven, whether running or passing.
Why They Won’t
I truly believe it matters for teams to be in dogfights.
It helps a team learn ways to grind out wins when the going gets tough.
Tech blew through every single opponent they had apart from Arizona State who gave them a fight, and the Sun Devils came out on top.
For a team that hasn’t been in the playoff or in big moments like this before, can they sneak out three wins to win it all?
It’ll be tough.
Oregon Ducks
Why They Will
At some point they’ll have to, right?
Oregon has consistently been a great football team, with a high powered offense and a well coached defense.
The key might be quarterback Dante Moore, who leads an explosive offense.
Can’t get bogged down against these defenses if you hit on your big plays.
Why They Won’t
There have been much more talented Oregon teams than this one fall well short of a championship.
Considering the route they have to take to get to the title game, having to get through JMU, Texas Tech, and Indiana or Alabama/Oklahoma respectively, I’m not sure they can get there.
Ole Miss Rebels
Why They Will
The big issue with Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss teams was a severe lack of defense.
That was fixed this year, with defensive coordinator (and now head coach) Pete Golding turning the Rebels defense into not just “not a liability” but actually “good”, ranking 17th in SP+.
Why They Won’t
Have you been keeping up with the news?
Did you see the soap opera with Lane Kiffin and him no longer being the Ole Miss head coach?
The distraction surrounding all that, and the question of if Pete Golding can fill the head coaching shoes perfectly, makes me think Ole Miss isn’t long for these playoffs, despite the talent they have.
Texas A&M Aggies
Why They Will
Marcel Reed was a possible Heisman candidate for a reason.
His incredible year propelled a solid Aggies offense to an 11-1 season, and this team will go as far as he takes them.
His poor play against Texas and the first half of South Carolina dug the Aggies a hole, but his great play in the second half of that game saved them.
If he’s great, they’ll be great.
Why They Won’t
They haven’t been great for a while, now.
Reed has struggled, as I mentioned, and they didn’t exactly face a gauntlet of an SEC schedule. The only tough game they played was in Austin against Texas, and their perfect season was ruined.
Add in a defense that’s ranked 10th out of 12 playoff teams by SP+, and it feels like Mike Elko’s boys aren’t a real threat.
Oklahoma Sooners
Why They Will
They have one of the best defenses in the country.
Simple as that.
Why They Won’t
Their offense is not good.
Earlier, I mentioned that Texas A&M’s defense is ranked 10th of 12 playoff teams per SP+
Despite that, they’re still 21st in all of college football, so they’re still good.
Oklahoma’s offense is ranked 49th.
That’s the worst of all playoff teams, and it’s not even close. They’re 21 spots behind Tulane.
The defense can be as good as it wants.
If they can’t score, it doesn’t matter.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Why They Will
While the defense runs the show in Alabama, Ty Simpson and his receivers drove the offense to a 10-2 record with key wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt and Tennessee.
Simpson, alongside receivers Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams, can spearhead this team on a run.
Why They Won’t
And they’re going to have to, because this team can not run the ball whatsoever.
The reason Ty Simpson went from a Heisman favorite to not even invited to New York City is because defenses wised up and realized you can simply play the pass, because the run won’t beat you.
So unless their running game magically appears, Alabama isn’t winning a thing.
Miami Hurricanes
Why They Will
They have no glaring weakness.
The offense has a solid pass and run game.
The defense does a solid job of stopping the pass and the run.
They are just a good football team, through and through.
Why They Won’t
Simply solid isn’t going to win you a national championship.
You have to be great at something to win it all, and Miami frankly isn’t.
Add in Mario Cristobal’s game management, and their ceiling is very clear.
Playoffs? Yes.
Champions? No.
Tulane Green Wave
Why They Will
Tulane’s offense is really good, led by transfer quarterback Jake Retzlaff.
Who knows? Maybe they’ll score a lot!
Why They Won’t
Apart from the obvious talent discrepancy compared to other teams, the defense is not anywhere near good enough to slow down these offenses.
Head coach Jon Summrall is a good defensive coach, and he does what he can to help mitigate the issues, but the talent just simply isn’t there.
That Ole Miss offense they face is too good for this Tulane defense to stop them.
James Madison Dukes
Why They Will
JMU won at the FCS level.
Then, they moved up to FBS, and won.
Then, they lost their coach and a significiant number of players to Indiana, and still won.
Now, they’re in the college football playoffs.
Am I predicting them to win? No.
But they keep doing it every time people think they might not.
So who am I to think they won’t?
Why They Won’t
If there is one thing those losers in mainstream college football media who think G5 schools don’t belong in the playoff are right about, it’s that JMU just isn’t as talented as everyone else.
That’s obvious, and it doesn’t mean they can’t pull off an upset. They might!
But to pull off four in a row and win a title?
Not happening.
But again, that’s fine in March Madness, so it should be fine here, as well.
