Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win MLS Cup: Western Conference
Photo by Joe Puetz from The Associated Press
The elite of elite in the Western Conference of MLS were one upped by the new guy in town.
But come playoff time, the giants might take back control.
Here is why each team in the West will and will not win MLS Cup.
1. St. Louis (I’m still not calling them St. Louis CITY SC I think that’s stupid)
Why They Will
They have the MLS goalkeeper of the year (most likely) in Roman Burki, and a team that loves to score goals. They scored more goals than anyone else in the West this year.
They also will have home field advantage all the way through the Western conference, and that helps as they’re great at home.
Why They Won’t
There’s a reason Roman Burki will likely be goalkeeper of the year.
It’s because he’s had to make huge saves to help them win games because the defense ahead of him isn’t very good.
And the underlying stats for the attacking teams in the West are very good.
Burki won’t be able to save their bacon the whole way.
They also overperformed their expected goals total by 20.
20!!!!
That’s an insane amount.
2. Seattle Sounders
Why They Will
They led the league in clean sheets, showing signs of excellent defense, and, as mentioned above, the underlying attacking stats show they create great opportunities.
They were 3rd in the whole league in xG difference.
Why They Won’t
xG stands for expected goals. That means you’re expected to score that many goals over the course of the season.
ACTUAL goals are what determine games.
The Sounders attacking players, mainly Raul Ruidiaz and Nico Lodeiro, just haven’t put away the chances they’ve been set up for.
If you don’t take your chances come playoff time, someone else surely will make you pay for it.
3. LAFC
Why They Will
Well, they’re the defending champs.
They lead the league in xG difference.
They have the MLS Golden Boot winner, so they have match winners up front.
Should I go on?
Why They Won’t
Something just feels off about them this year.
They started red hot, lost the CCL Final, and ever since then they have just looked to be missing something.
They’re a lot like the Sounders.
The underlying numbers are great. The standings show they’re a top level team in the conference.
But it doesn’t feel that way when you watch them.
I have a hard time believing they’ll magically flip a switch come playoff time.
4. Houston Dynamo
Why They Will
First of all, what an awesome first year in Houston for Ben Olsen. The turn around he had for this team is remarkable.
The Dynamo also play very naturally pretty soccer.
Hector Herrera is a huge part of that, as he controls the midfield and does so wonderfully.
It’s hard to stop this team with the style they play.
Why They Won’t
The good news is, they might stop themselves!
It’s a good team back to front, but it’s not a great team back to front.
They will give up scoring chances. They will miss scoring chances.
They feel a lot like Philly.
There’s just something missing in this roster to be the champs.
5. Real Salt Lake
Why They Will
RSL took Pablo Mastroeni’s “They’ve got that dawg in them” style and added in Chicho Arango, and it clicked.
These guys play super hard, they’re in every single game, and they pull out wins even in unlikely fashion.
Why They Won’t
Well, Chicho Arango is hurt.
As is Pablo Ruiz.
Name me a team that won MLS Cup while missing two crucial attacking pieces.
I can’t think of one.
6. Vancouver Whitecaps
Why They Will
This team is a lot like Seattle and LAFC.
Vancouver’s xG difference is +11. That’s really good!
Why They Won’t
This team is also a lot like Houston.
They just don’t have the guys.
Soccer is a team game, but in a (mostly) single elimination playoff format, you need stars to be stars.
If you don’t have any stars, the odds are heavily against you.
7. FC Dallas
Why They Will
Hang on, let me get what I wrote last year.
They’ve been a consistent playoff team year after year, but never had the true star power to win it.
Now they have Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola, two very, very good MLS players to help them be successful in the part of the season that matters most.
It just has to happen at some point.
It still relates to this year, as well.
Why They Won’t
That quote above has related a lot over the years, and they still have not gotten a ring out of it.
Jesus Ferreira, Paul Arriola, Walker Zimmerman, Ricardo Pepi, Ryan Hollingshead, Kellyn Acosta.
They have had tons of talent over the years, whether it be up and coming or current stars, and have nothing to show for it.
This year won’t be any different.
8. Sporting Kansas City
Why They Will
Do not be fooled by this teams seeding.
SKC started the season absolutely atrociously. I thought they should fire Peter Vermes and start it over.
A lot of their fans did as well.
But they had an insanely good last 2/3 of the season that pulled them out of that rut and into the playoffs.
This team is better than an 8 seed, and they’re going to shock some people.
And in a weaker western conference, they can easily make a crazy run.
After that, it’s a one off game in MLS Cup. Anything can happen.
Why They Won’t
As I said above, they’re better than their seeding. It was all due to that atrocious start.
But that atrocious start didn’t just happen for no reason.
Sure, they had some injuries, but a lot of teams did. They weren’t THAT awful during that time.
They could pull off one upset.
Pulling off countless upsets? Mostly all on the road?
Not gonna happen.
9. San Jose Earthquakes
Why They Will
This team loves to tie games.
They had 14 of them, the most of any playoff team.
What that means is that the Quakes are mostly in the game, and if you’re in the game, you have a chance to win the game.
Why They Won’t
The underlying numbers (a -7.7 xG difference) show that those draws probably weren’t due to San Jose simply being in the game.
It shows that they got lucky.
Now they have to get so lucky that they beat a better than 8 seed SKC team in the Wild Card Round?
It’s going to be a quick exit for the Quakes.
Western Conference Prediction
The West is insanely wide open.
Will it be the hot hand of St. Louis? Or the sleeping giants of Seattle or LAFC?
There’s two things I know about the playoffs.
Defense wins championships, and you should trust the hot hand.
The Sounders are the best defense in MLS, and have not lost in their last 9 games. 4 of those against playoff teams.
The Sounders win the Western Conference
That means MLS Cup Final will be a 2020 rematch between the Sounders and the Crew.
In 2020, the Crew smacked the Sounders right in the mouth, using a great home atmosphere to completely take control of the game.
And that was in the old stadium.
Now, the Crew have a new stadium that makes that atmosphere even more difficult to play in, and while the Sounders haven’t lost in 9 games, they’ve also only won 4 of them.
At home, as the better team, the odds are just too hard to ignore.
Columbus Crew win MLS Cup 2023
