Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win MLS Cup: Eastern Conference

Photo courtesy of Emilee Chinn of Getty Images

The fall is my favorite time of the year.

It’s cold, college football is ramping up, college basketball is back and MLS Cup playoffs begin.

There are more talented soccer leagues, but none of them reach the levels of absurd stupidity as MLS does.

So, as I always do when it comes playoff time, I’ll explain why each team will or will not win it all in December.

New England Revolution

Will: I’m not someone who claims Supporter’s Shield (given to the best team in MLS) is more important than MLS Cup as some others do, but I won’t ignore that the Revs were very clearly the best team in MLS this year.

When you have the likely MVP in Carles Gil and the likely goalkeeper of the year in Matt Turner all wrapped into a well coached and organized team, you have the recipe for success.

It’d be foolish to pick against them.

Will Not: The last team to win both Supporter’s Shield and MLS Cup was Toronto FC in 2017.

Before them? LA Galaxy in 2011.

So in the last ten seasons, only two teams have pulled off the double.

In a playoff system, especially a one leg playoff system, one slip up and you’re done.

The odds do not favor the Revs, and while some soccer purists may think that’s unfair, tough toenails.

Life ain’t fair. Why should sports be?

Philadelphia Union

Will: We’ve reached the first time in this post that I’ll talk about “match winners.”

With a one leg playoff format, match winners are the guys who can single handily steal a game you have no business winning just because they play at such a high level.

It’s good to have match winners, but when that match winner is your goalkeeper? Even better.

The Union have plenty of issues.

They don’t play well on the road and their attack isn’t much to write home about.

But man, Andre Blake is a stud.

If he goes on a hot streak and is able to keep his side in their games, the Union can find a way to pull it off.

Will Not: This is the Union we’re talking about.

Playoff success is not in their DNA.

That may seem harsh, but it’s true.

The Union have one playoff win in their entire history, and even that one was shaky as they almost lost at home to the Red Bulls.

Maybe one day they’ll shock the world and go on a run, but I have a gut feeling this ain’t the year.

Nashville SC

Will: Nashville doesn’t like to lose.

With 4 losses from the whole 34 game season, that’s an incredible job avoiding defeat.

And it’s thanks to one of the league’s most underappreciated players in Hany Mukhtar and a rock on defense with Walker Zimmerman (go ahead and ask LAFC how they’re managing without Walker…)

You don’t have to be a soccer expert to know that it helps to not lose games if you want to win a title.

Will Not: You know what also helps you win a title?

Winning.

Which is also something Nashville seems to not like to do.

Because while Nashville has the least amount of losses in the whole league, they also are tied for the least amount of wins among playoff teams with Vancouver.

They just tied. And tied a lot.

Which is fine to pick up points, but there are no ties in the postseason.

Sure, they could get lucky and win every game in extra time or penalties, but they tried that last year when both of their playoff games went to extra time and they ended up not getting past Columbus (even though nobody else did either).

Nashville can’t get that lucky for four games in a row, and I doubt they’ll get past their phase of drawing every game.

New York City FC

Will: Scoring goals is crucial in MLS where there is less defensive talent, and NYCFC sure doesn’t lack in that department.

Valentin Castellanos is a big part of that, winning the golden boot this season.

Goals win games. Simple as that.

Will Not: But goals are hard to come by if you get bossed in the midfield, which is the problem NYCFC has.

You can try and outscore whoever you want, but if you don’t win the midfield battle and have the ball, you won’t be successful throughout the whole postseason.

Considering the three teams seeded above them all have better midfields, NYCFC is in for a rocky road.

Atlanta United

Will: New head coach Gonzalo Pineda has turned them into a boring team, and that is a good thing for right now.

I’m sure Pineda wants Atlanta to get back to their original expansion side, and be more free flowing and fun.

But when he took over, the Five Stripes were flat out broken.

The first thing he had to do was shore up the defense, which means lots of grinding out one goal wins.

That got fixed, and Josef Martinez started coming back into form, which has Atlanta back in the playoffs.

Sometimes, boring works.

Will Not: Atlanta needs a better ROI from Ezequiel Barco.

Barco is uber talented, for sure. But a constant complaint among Atlanta fans i how often he makes the wrong play, whether it be holding the ball too long or simply making the wrong pass decision.

If he makes those mistakes against teams with better midfields than Atlanta, then they will get torn apart and have a short lived life this postseason.

He’s gotten better as the season has gone on, but those problems still linger.

Orlando City

Will: A low ranked playoff team under Oscar Pareja? That alone shouts upset potential.

Throw in some great attacking players like Daryl Dike, Nani and Chris Mueller, and you have a sneaky dangerous team.

Will Not: Can those great attacking players stay match fit?

Dike has dealt with injuries all season long, and a long, grueling season doesn’t bode well for someone of Nani’s age.

If one of those two can’t go, that’s a tall mountain to climb for the Lions.

New York Red Bulls

Will: Even the best teams in MLS struggle when they are pressed, and the Red Bulls LOVE to press the opposition and make them uncomfortable.

Let me put it this way.

Last year in MLS Cup Final, the Sounders had a much more talented team than a COVID filled Columbus Crew side.

But the Crew, and young midfielder Aidan Morris, pressed the crap out of the Sounders midfield and made them uncomfortable all game.

The result? A 3-0 trouncing from Columbus.

There’s no reason the Red Bulls can’t do that to the opposition.

Will Not: Who are we kidding?

The Red Bulls fall short when they have great teams.

Why would anyone think this team, that’s pretty good but a far cry from great, will be the one to get them over the hump?