Why Each National League Team Will/Will Not Win the World Series
Photo by Brad Penner from USA Today Sports
If the American League has the Houston Astros as a clear favorite, the National League couldn’t be more different.
Every team in the NL has a chance to win it all this October, but only one of them can.
Well, I guess technically there’s a chance none of them will. Because an American League team could win one.
Whatever. You get it.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why They Will: This is the best team in baseball, and it’s not even sort of close.
They are, in essence, flawless.
Hitting? A+.
Pitching? Outstanding.
Fielding? Best in baseball.
There isn’t a single flaw to this team.
Why They Won’t: There really wasn’t a flaw to this team last year.
Nor was there one in 2019.
Both years, they fell short.
Sure they won in 2020, but it was a shortened season with less wear and tear, so the best team overall SHOULD win that championship.
But this dominant team full of superstars has still yet to win a championship in a full season since 1988.
Something clearly seems to be getting in the way, and this years NL playoffs are much harder than years past.
Atlanta Braves
Why They Will: I always appreciate a front office who is proactive.
The Braves won it all last year, and they very easily could have just enjoyed that rested on their laurels.
But they didn’t. They got better.
They got Matt Olson and they bolstered their bullpen, and the team who won 88 games in the regular season last year before winning it all won 101 games this year.
To summarize, they won it last year and then got better.
Why wouldn’t they win it again?
Why They Won’t: Do you know the last time a team won back to back World Series?
It was the Yankees who won three straight from 1998-2000.
Before then? It was the Blue Jays in 1992 and 1993.
Before then? It was the Yankees in 1977 and 1978.
It is hard as hell to win back to back World Series.
The baseball season is a long haul, and adding extra postseason games from winning it all to the next year makes it very difficult to keep that pace through another October.
If the Braves get tired and start slumping, they’re going to pay for it.
St. Louis Cardinals
Why They Will: Let’s explain it in three parts.
They have two superstars and the likely NL MVP in Paul Goldschmidt.
What seemed like a nice final year signing of Albert Pujols turned out to be an incredible move, as Pujols as turned back the clock and not only became a serviceable MLB player, but an actual good one.
The Cardinals are the Green Bay Packers of baseball.
You know exactly what you’re going to get from the Cardinals.
Sure, there are down years. But more often than not, this team is going to be a contender.
This year was no different, and now that they’re in the postseason, they just need to keep that consistent play for one more month and they’ll be the champs again.
Why They Won’t: If you didn’t read my post yesterday, which you should, then I’ll explain WAR here.
WAR means Wins Above Replacement. It’s a metric that determines how many wins you gain or lose at certain positions as opposed to a league average player.
The Cardinals starting pitching WAR is -1.1. That’s not very good, but what’s worse is their bullpen.
Their bullpen WAR is -3.4. That’s 5th worst in Major League Baseball.
In a National League where every other team has fantastic bats, that’s not going to fly.
New York Mets
Why They Will: Pitching, pitching and pitching.
Sure, the Mets have good hitters.
But in the postseason, the pitching rotation typically goes from 5 pitchers to 4.
The Mets 4 man rotation is going to be Max Scherzer, Jacob DeGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker.
And once they’re gone, they have Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino coming out of the bullpen.
Good luck scoring against that.
Why They Won’t: Because they’re the Mets.
San Diego Padres
Why They Will: This team has everything they need.
Hitting? They’ve got Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Wil Meyers and so on.
Pitching? They’ve got Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and a solid bullpen.
They’re stacked.
If all the pieces fall into place the way they should, they’ll run through the postseason with ease.
Why They Won’t: If you read yesterday’s post (which, again, you should) that paragraph might have looked a little bit familiar.
That’s because I wrote the exact same thing about the Toronto Blue Jays with only the names changing.
They’re the same team.
They’re stacked on paper, but paper is not where the game is played. The pieces just simply never fell into place.
The Blue Jays might get by in a weaker American League, but the Padres?
There’s just too many hoops to jump through.
Philadelphia Phillies
Why They Will: Pitching and hitting are the most important parts of baseball.
The Phillies can hit, and the Phillies can pitch.
Very, very well.
Why They Won’t: I said pitching and hitting are the most important parts.
But they aren’t the only parts.
One thing a team can not do at this time of the year is make careless mistakes and give their opponents another chance.
That is prevented by defense.
The league average for defensive efficiency is .697.
The Phillies defensive efficiency is .687.
Poor defense can leave men on base or prevent the Phillies from getting out of the inning, and if that happens against playoff teams, it’s going to kill them.
