Why Each American League Team Will/Will Not Win the World Series
Photo from the Seattle Mariners
It’s October.
It’s time for playoff baseball.
And I figured there was no better first type of content to put on the site than my usual for each sports postseason than to explain why each team in the playoffs has a great chance to win the World Series, and why they’ll simply fall short.
Today we’ll focus on the American League. Tomorrow we’ll tackle the National League.
Houston Astros
Why They Will: To win the World Series, first you have to get to the World Series.
And for 3 of the last 4 full MLB seasons, the Astros have done just that.
There’s a lot of question marks with each AL playoff team except the Astros.
They are far and away the best AL team, and are by far the favorite to win the AL Pennant and go to the World Series.
Once they do that, it’s just four more wins.
Why They Won’t: They’ve only needed four more wins three times, and they’ve only gotten it twice.
Two times they fell short, they fell short against opponents they were absolutely better than (2019 Nationals and 2021 Braves).
Now, the National League is stacked.
They can beat up on the AL if they want, but if they struggled against weaker NL opponents in 2019 and 2021, it’s going to be hard seeing them get by the much tougher 2022 NL.
Unless they find a new fun way to cheat!
New York Yankees
Why They Will: Earlier, I mentioned that the Astros are far and away the best AL team.
But if you look at the advanced metrics, you’ll see that the Yankees are right there with them.
In fact, they have a higher total team Wins Above Replacement (WAR) than the Astros do.
They can hit, they can field, and they have the pieces in the starting rotation to be able to pitch.
They should be the whole package.
Why They Won’t: For whatever reason, that rotation just can’t seem to hit their true level.
They’re good, but when it goes poorly it really goes poorly.
Gerrit Cole is boom or bust. Jameson Tillion is the exact same way.
Their deadline acquisition of Frankie Montas has not gone according to plan, to say the least.
There’s simply too many big bats on the other side, and if the Yankees want to get past that, they’ll need consistent pitching.
And they haven’t gotten it.
Cleveland Guardians
Why They Will: The Nationals in 2019 and the Braves in 2021 were not the best teams in the postseason, but they entered red hot.
Baseball’s regular season is a marathon, and the postseason is a sprint. It’s beneficial to be playing your best ball.
And the Guardians are 21-5 in their last 26 games.
They’re on fire, and that’s a perfect way to head into October.
Why They Won’t: I wish I had better analysis on this, but sometimes you just have to keep it simple.
They aren’t good enough this year.
12 teams make the postseason, and the Guardians are 9th in total team WAR of those 12 teams.
But I think Guardians fans are ok with that.
After all, they’re the youngest team in baseball and are well ahead of schedule.
They are going to be contenders in the future.
This just isn’t the year.
Toronto Blue Jays
Why They Will: This team has everything they need.
Hitting? They’ve got Vlad Jr, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette and so on.
Pitching? They’ve got Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and a solid bullpen.
They’re stacked.
If all the pieces fall into place the way they should, they’ll run through the postseason with ease.
Why They Won’t: We have been waiting for the pieces to fall into place all year long, and it just never happened.
Some of it was injuries, some of it was underperforming.
Some of it was simply a poor manager.
But the fact is this team should have been contending for an AL East title, and instead found themselves fighting for a playoff spot with the Rays and the Orioles.
The pieces could fall into place for the Jays, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Seattle Mariners
Why They Will: The number one thing you need to win a World Series is good pitching.
The Mariners have that.
After a very slow start, the Mariners went on a hot streak the back half of the season due in large part to very good performances from their rotation and bullpen.
If they can keep that going, it’s going to be hard to score against them and hard to come back against them.
Why They Won’t: A couple reasons, really.
First, this team slumps hard.
Every team goes through slumps, but the Mariners slumps at the plate seem to last a while.
As I said earlier, the postseason is a sprint. They don’t have a while.
Second, that pitching I mentioned earlier leans on players like Logan Gilbert, who is in his first full MLB season, and George Kirby, who is in his first year and didn’t play the full season.
One of their main bullpen guys, Matt Brash, is also in his first year.
That’s a lot of pressure on a young pitching staff, and it might just be too much too soon.
Tampa Bay Rays
Why They Will: Well, they’ve come close quite a few times before.
And they’re getting Tyler Glasnow back. That helps.
Wander Franco is a stud.
At some point, they have to break through and win it all, right?
Why They Won’t: Wrong.
I mean, I like the Rays a lot, but let’s be real.
This team is not as good as the 2020 team. It’s not as good as the 2021 team.
Both of those teams didn’t win the World Series, and the 2022 team that is worse is slumping their way into the postseason.
If the others couldn’t win it, I would be absolutely baffled if this one did.
But hey, I was absolutely baffled that the Nationals won in 2019 and the Braves won in 2021.
So there’s a chance, I guess.
