Why Each MLB Team Will/Won’t Win the World Series
Photo from The Associated Press
As I write this, we are 11 minutes away from October.
It’s playoff baseball time.
And if you need a quick primer on what’s going to happen this postseason, look no further.
There really isn’t one truly dominant team this postseason, so it’s up for grabs.
But only one can win it.
Here’s why each team will, and each team won’t.
American League
New York Yankees
Why They Will
They’re stacked.
Aaron Judge is a freak, and Juan Soto might genuinely be even better as an overall player.
They have the star power to win championship number 28.
Why They Won’t
Fielding and baserunning.
They’re average in defensive efficiency, and foolish on the basepaths.
Homers and strikeouts are fun and flashy and get the crowd going, but you need to play a total complete game to win it all.
I’m not sure they can.
Cleveland Guardians
Why They Will
The Guardians play great defense and have a great bullpen.
If they get a lead, they are likely to keep it.
You do not want to fall behind this team.
Why They Won’t
The Guardians non pitching WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is 1.3, meaning their total players off the mound give the Guardians about 1 more win than an average MLB team.
That’s fine, but there are 3 teams in the American League who trounce that number.
Average won’t get you titles.
Houston Astros
Why They Will
I mean.
Come on.
It’s the Astros.
Even in a down year, it’s the Astros.
Why They Won’t
Yordan Alvarez is hurt. They play the Tigers in the Wild Card round, who are red hot. Baseball is weird.
I don’t know.
There’s many ways they can lose, but even though they have the third best record in the AL, I think they’re the team to beat.
Baltimore Orioles
Why They Will
The Orioles offense is a juggernaut.
They’re unbelievably good.
Why They Won’t
On paper.
They’re unbelievably good, on paper.
Late season, however, they slumped.
Add in a, let’s say “questionable” bullpen, and it could be a quick exit.
Kansas City Royals
Why They Will
Pitching wins games, and the Royals have the best starting pitching in baseball in terms of WAR (10.4).
That’s a huge number, and a giant advantage.
That staff can keep runs off the board.
Why They Won’t
Their bullpen, however, will put runs right back on the board.
While the starters have a 10.4 WAR, the bullpen sits at -2.9.
The starters aren’t going to be perfect, and they won’t play a full 9 innings.
Detroit Tigers
Why They Will
Baseball is a lot about confidence, and there’s no team more confident than the Tigers.
The Tigers had a less than 1% chance to make the playoffs in August, and then went absolutely nuclear, defying the odds and making the postseason.
That confidence has given them new life, and they plan to take advantage of that new life.
Why They Won’t
They’re still just a league average team, and they have to take on the Astros in the Wild Card round.
That’s a tall order for a team that might just be a good story.
National League
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why They Will
Look at their lineup.
Enough said.
Why They Won’t
Their pitching is bad.
Not “bad” by Dodgers standards.
BAD “bad.”
Their pitching WAR is 27th in the league out of 30, sitting at -6.5.
This may not matter because their bats are so good, but if the bats cool off, they’re in big trouble.
Philadelphia Phillies
Why They Will
The Phillies may be the best all around team in baseball.
Starters. Bullpen. Hitting. All great.
Why They Won’t
The Phillies, once again, aren’t a very good team fielding wise.
It hasn’t hurt them in the past. It might not hurt them this year!
But if there’s a weakness, there it is. The Phils are below league average defensively.
Milwaukee Brewers
Why They Will
If the Phillies are the best all around team, the Brewers really aren’t far behind.
They’re top 10 in WAR for their starters, bullpen and position players, while also being a top 10 team in fielding efficiency.
They’re really good.
Why They Won’t
Who was the last world champion that didn’t have pure star power?
The Brewers don’t really have that.
Willy Adames is great, and Jackson Chourio is a super fun young prospect, but it’s not enough right now to power the Brewers to a title.
San Diego Padres
Why They Will
The Padres pitching is mostly excellent (we’ll get to that) and Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the perfect types of players made for October.
When this team gets hot, they get red hot.
Why They Won’t
Remember how I said the Padres pitching is mostly excellent?
That’s because closer Robert Suarez has been terrible the last two months.
Playoff games are usually close.
The Padres are going to want some more comfort in the 9th.
Atlanta Braves
Why They Will
Even with key injuries, the Braves have a lot of talent.
Pitcher Max Fried is solid. Marcell Ozuna and Jorge Soler are good. Matt Chapman continues to be consistent.
The pieces are there for another 2021 type run.
Why They Won’t
While the Braves won’t have Ronald Acuna, they didn’t have him in 2021 and it didn’t matter.
But this time, they’re also missing Austin Riley, Spencer Strider and now maybe Chris Sale as well.
It feels like there are too many injuries this time around.
New York Mets
Why They Will
In a world without Shohei Ohtani, the Mets likely have the NL MVP in Francisco Lindor.
Add in Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil to a stacked infield, all of whom are solid defensively as well, and the pieces are there for a run.
Why They Won’t
The Mets have heavy bullpen problems.
If that can possibly sink the Dodgers with their stacked lineup, it’ll torpedo the Mets.
