Why Each College Football Team Will/Will Not Win the National Championship
Photo by Brian Murphy from Getty Images
If you read my stories regularly, you may know that, when it comes time for the postseason, I run down why each team participating will or will not win the championship.
I never did that for college football. Mostly due to the fact that it was only a four team playoff.
It just didn’t seem worth writing about with it only being 4 teams.
But now, for the first time ever, it’s 12 teams.
And it’s also a year where there isn’t one clear cut dominant team.
That means that every team clearly has a chance to win it all, or fall flat on their faces.
Oregon Ducks
Why They Will
Oregon has exactly everything you’re looking for.
Dillon Gabriel was a Heisman nominated quarterback. The speed Oregon has on the outside is reminiscent of the Chip Kelly days.
But they also have some big bodies up front that can push you around.
If it’s a slug fest, Oregon can punch with you.
If it’s a track meet, they can run with you.
They have it all.
Why They Won’t
I think Oregon is the best team in the country, but by no means does that mean they are perfect.
In the three games against playoff teams they played this year, they won by 3, 2, and 8 respectively.
And in those three games, their opponents (Boise State, Ohio State, and Penn State) scored 34 points, 31 points, and 37 points.
Their defense is vulnerable against top offenses.
And there’s an abundance of them in the playoff.
Georgia Bulldogs
Why They Will
Talent, talent, talent.
Georgia’s got loads of it, and they have a coach who, no matter how much he annoys me (please stop complaining all the time), can get his guys up for any game.
It’s why they’ve won two of the last three championships, and two of the last four SEC championships.
They’re flawed, but so were the previous Georgia teams.
It didn’t matter then. Why would it now?
Why They Won’t
Carson Beck wasn’t the most reliable quarterback in the world when he was playing.
Now, he’s hurt. And it’s unclear if he will return this season. Georgia has already said he’s likely out their first game.
Gunner Stockton will likely step in in his absence, and Stockton was a former 4 star recruit, so he can play.
But when you’re talking about a national championship run, having a QB who barely plays is quite a disadvantage.
It worked for Ohio State and Cardale Jones.
Not so sure it’ll work here.
Boise State Broncos
Why They Will
Boise State has the best player in the country in Ashton Jeanty.
I know Travis Hunter won the Heisman, and he deserves it for his amazing season at both receiver and cornerback, but I think Jeanty is the best player specifically.
Having a running back who can still gain huge yards, even when the box is stacked, takes a ton of pressure off the entire offense, as it’s easier for the passing game to thrive as well.
If Jeanty has a huge game, and we know he can from what he did against Oregon, Boise can make a deep run.
Why They Won’t
I love Boise State and I love the G5 representation, and I think everyone complaining about it doesn’t like college sports.
It’s like saying the Ivy League basketball champion shouldn’t make the NCAA tournament. Do you just not like fun?
With all of that being said, Boise does have a huge talent deficiency, specifically defensively.
Their first round matchup is going to be against either Penn State or SMU, two prolific offenses.
They could be in trouble early.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Why They Will
I don’t think it’s at all crazy to say that Arizona State is playing the best football of every team in the playoff.
They have been extremely red hot, especially in the ground game with Cam Skattebo, and the buy in the team has from coach Kenny Dillingham that turned this team from a 3-9 disaster to the Big 12 champion and 4 seed in the playoff.
Form matters a lot, as it does in every sport.
The Sun Devils will go into every game thinking they can beat everyone.
Why They Won’t
Star receiver Jordyn Tyson is out for the season, which is a huge issue for Arizona State’s offense.
Cam Skattebo is great. Redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt is playing great football.
But missing that other superstar piece makes an already difficult road to the national championship for Arizona State an even harder task.
Texas Longhorns
Why They Will
I think Oregon is the best team in the country.
Texas is the most talented, by a large margin.
Their recruiting classes are excellent. Their transfers in have been remarkable.
They have not one, but two good quarterbacks who can take over a game when they’re hot, and they can push you around offensively or defensively.
They’re flat out stacked.
Why They Won’t
One of their quarterbacks has not been hot for a while now.
That, mixed with head coach Steve Sarkisian’s strange play calling decisions, means the Texas offense has been sputtering for a few weeks now.
Maybe they can flip a switch and get back to what we think they can be, but if they don’t, they’re not going very far.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Why They Will
Penn State has a good running game, a good quarterback, arguably the best defensive player in the country in Abdul Carter, and are very well coached all around.
They’re also two very close games away from being 13-0 and Big 10 champions.
Don’t let the number 6 rank fool you.
This is a very good football team.
Why They Won’t
Why are they 11-2 instead of 13-0?
Look, it’s low hanging fruit, but you simply can not talk about Penn State without talking about the James Franklin issue.
James Franklin is 3-17 against top 10 teams.
Now, top 10 teams are obviously very difficult to beat, but it’s not like he's doing this as the coach of Maryland.
Penn State is one of the elite teams in the sport.
3-17 is simply not good enough, and a sign that Penn State always somehow falls short in the big games.
Well, the playoff is nothing but big games.
Do you see James Franklin rattling off 4 huge wins in a row?
I don’t.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Why They Will
These Irish will smack you in the mouth.
Great run game. Beefy offensive line. Stout front 7 defensively.
Good luck running against them, and good luck stopping their run.
They will control the line of scrimmage all the way to the title.
Why They Won’t
Well, they have controlled the line of scrimmage against some good teams.
Not against any elite teams, however.
And if the ground game stops working, the pass offense for the Irish is nowhere near good enough to keep up in a shootout.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a run.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if they lost round 1 to Indiana.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Why They Will
Will Howard is fine at quarterback. Nothing really special. And their kicker isn’t very good.
Outside of that? This team is full of special.
The skill position guys are insane. The offensive line has some injuries, but is mostly good.
Defensively, this team can shut down anyone.
They have the pieces of a championship team.
Why They Won’t
If Will Howard has an even ok game instead of a good one, this offense looks like a shell of itself.
We saw it against Michigan in the biggest game of the year.
Howard struggled, and Ohio State embarrassingly lost to a team they are much better than.
He’ll need to be perfect for Ohio State to win it all.
I’m just not sure he will be.
Tennessee Volunteers
Why They Will
Literally everything I just said about Ohio State above applies to Tennessee as well, to maybe a lesser extent.
Defense is great. Offense has crazy weapons. Nico Iamaleava has the tools necessary to win games for the Vols.
Why They Won’t
Again, just like with Ohio State and Will Howard, there are games where Nico Iamaleava struggles mightily and it sinks the Volunteers offense entirely.
Granted, Nico is a lot younger than Howard, and that can possibly change in the future.
But this is just about this playoff run, and Nico will need to be at his very best to win a title for Tennessee.
That’s a tall order for a redshirt freshman.
Indiana Hoosiers
Why They Will
What wins championships?
Defense.
And Indiana’s is a damn good one.
Schedule this, schedule that, blah blah blah.
They haven’t played the toughest opponents, but they have completely shut down almost all of them.
And that’s all you can ask for.
Why They Won’t
Because they won’t get out of round 1.
I like Indiana a lot, but Notre Dame is an extremely bad matchup for the Hoosiers.
The Irish offensive line can punish Indiana’s defense, and the Notre Dame defense will shut down the Indiana run game, forcing Kurtis Rourke into long third downs.
I just don’t see how they get past Notre Dame.
SMU Mustangs
Why They Will
Since Rhett Lashlee handed the reigns over to Kevin Jennings, SMU’s offense has been excellent.
In fact, the Mustangs were undefeated under Jennings until the ACC Championship loss to Clemson.
You have to score points to win. SMU can score a lot.
Why They Won’t
They just aren’t good enough.
It stinks, because SMU is a very good story being here after the death penalty they received in the late 80’s, but the team just suffers from the same issue as Boise State.
Immensely fun, but lacking the premier talent needed to take down the top dogs on a deep playoff run.
And they don’t even have an Ashton Jeanty to help them.
Clemson Tigers
Why They Will
As much as Dabo Swinney annoys me, he is a very good coach when it comes to the game itself.
And a well coached team can make a run in any tournament, no matter what the sport.
Why They Won’t
What Swinney succeeds with on the field, he struggles with off of it.
Good high school recruiting classes, but zero transfers in means you’re focused solely on developing high school talent.
When it works, it wins championships.
When it doesn’t, as it hasn’t the past few years, it can lead to some disappointing seasons.
This season isn’t disappointing, but it’s not the Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence era of Clemson teams.
This team won’t win a title.
