Dick’s Picks: Week 8 Primer

Photo by Joe Hermitt from The Patriot News

Hello Friends,

Back in Baltimore after a weekend in good ole Ann Arbor. State Penn & Ohio State with the biggest game of at noon with good ole Gus Johnson on the call. And don’t forget about the troops. TYFYS. Get a little cousin loving down in Tuscaloosa with Rocky Top and then finish it off the day with some iconic venues under the lights in Tallahassee, Baton Rouge and of course the Coliseum. AND HERE WE GO!

Bet Record for Big Games (26-17-2 +9.21u, O/Us 11-4-1 +6.03u, Spreads 10-7-1 +2.39u, TTs 5-6 -1.16u, ML 2-0 +2.03u)

Last Week (5-3 +1.19u, O/Us 2-1 .88u, Spreads 0-2 -2.25u, TTs 2-0 +1.56u, ML 1-0 +1u)

“Fox Big Noon” Game

State Penn vs Ohio State (Ohio State -4.5, O/U 45.5 12PM FOX)

Would truly be a disservice to not talk about this game first.

It's the start of the round robin in the Big 10 East and we finally get to see how good Penn State is.

Not to say that we really have an idea of how good Ohio State is but they have passed every test along the way. By no means is it an A grade, but if you were to give them a grade but closer to that C+/B- grade.

Now, if people think they are frauds that is another discussion. I don’t think it's necessarily something to get worked up about because they play State Penn this week and then of course thanksgiving weekend they play Big Blue. So we will see what this team is really about. As well as State Penn.

They have been dominant against inferior opponents and will face its first real challenge in the “Shoe”. Time to nut up or shut up. Think this will be a different game than what we saw in Washington Oregon but definitely warrants a “must watch.”

I will bring this up again but it's a real shame that Fox does these games at noon. These college stadium crowds are the best under the lights so let’s play the damn game how it should be played.

Now the hope with Drew Allar coming into this year that he would be the “one” to get Penn State to that elite level. An elite level defense is what Penn State has had in past couple years with some serious pro talent but it seemed like Sean “The Big Red Dog” Clifford always held them back. He could never quite make those elite plays that you needed from your quarterback and he had some questionable decision making skills.

Now the decision making for Drew Allar has been good. He has 12 touchdowns with 0 picks but only has 1254 yards through 6 games, which averages out to a little over 200 yards per game. And that is on 180 attempts for the year too which means it's about 30 attempts per game which is not all that great either.

Which brings me to the fact that this offense struggles with creating explosive plays. 133rd in the country in explosiveness which is terrifying. Literally dead last in the country. You would think with the talent that they have in the backfield with Katron Allen and Nicholas Singleton that there would be something to show for that talent. At times they have compared Singleton to baby Saquon and he has had his moments when he certainly has looked the part but I think if they have any chance of winning this game those two have to be great, along with this receiver core stepping up.

This offense has been great at scoring touchdowns, which Ohio State can match as well working well behind the chains. Now, Ohio State does struggle there. So there is the potential for some success there but I think the stats are a little inflated due to competition that they are playing. So I don't know how well this lines up for this Penn State offense. You would like them to have more dominant stats against some inferior opponents but that isn’t the case. In the back of my mind maybe they just haven’t unleashed this offense because they knew they could be on cruise control till this point with how good the defense has been but I just don't believe it. So maybe they have some crazy trick plays drawn up here to surprise this Ohio State defense.

Now, this Penn State defense is elite. Even with the competition they have played it's very hard to argue that Michigan or them doesn’t have the best defense in the country. It’s the number 1 defense in the country based on PPA & Success rate. Just absolutely smothering.

The Ohio State offense hasn’t been one of those offenses that we have come to expect, and I think that they have had ample opportunities to prove that they are an elite offense with the weapons that McCord has surrounding him. Now the numbers still grade out well but from an eye test this offense could be so much better. It starts with getting Marvin Harrison Jr the ball and until somebody can stop that it shouldn't change.

This Penn State team actually might have the secondary and the corner to contain him. Kalen King is his name and you should get acquainted with him. I don’t know how many cornerbacks will make the thumbnail of a gambling primer this year, but he is more than deserving. His name will be called in the first round at some point in the upcoming draft and whoever gets him will be a happy team. He’s an absolute stud.

The only thing that scares me about the matchup is the height difference. Marvin Harrison Jr is 6’4” and Kalen King is only 5’11”. Meaning there will be some jump balls that Marvin Harrison Jr comes away with but will Ohio State be able to get him the ball? Penn State is the top havoc team in the country and Ohio State only ranks 68th in havoc allowed which is a little concerning. They are decent at protecting the passer and not allowing negative runs but the bigger issue is what is allowed in the secondary. Meaning that a ton of McCord passes are getting deflected or intercepted by DBs which is frightening against this Penn State secondary especially Kalen King. There really is no weakness on this defense but I am interested to see if stepping up against this elite level of offensive weapons changes the narrative. McCord has struggled which makes me think this defense will be just fine but facing Marvin Harrison Jr, Emeka Egbuka, Cade Stover and Treyveon Henderson is another level of talent they haven’t faced this year yet.

These were bets that I made earlier in the week that I put in the recap blog so bear with me with the numbers. The one that I like more and more as I did my write up and looking at the numbers is the under in this game. The State Penn offense hasn’t been doing anything good against some not so great defenses and now they are traveling to the “Shoe” against DC Jim Knowles with no explosiveness. Again, they could just be hiding the playbook but I find it hard to believe. And for this State Penn defense there really aren’t any words to describe how superb they are. And they run into this underperforming Ohio State offense. And the best WR in the country may meet his match potentially. I see this being a good ole Big 10 slugfest in the “Shoe”. I can see both defenses just balling out and could see 3 to 4 big plays that decide this game.

Now I did take Penn State +5.5 with a little juice on open. I thought the number was a little too high and should be closer to 3 and 4. Ohio State hasn’t done anything to warrant that they should be laying more than a field goal against a team that potentially has a similar talent pool. Penn State has almost turned into the public dog of the week which always scares me. And this Penn State offense has been underwhelming. I think Ohio State just because of the sheer talent on offense will get a couple plays here or there that allow them to score.

As for this Penn State team, it looks like they are going to have to be methodical against this Ohio State defense. Now the Ohio State defense is great at limiting explosive plays but they are more than capable at stopping an efficient offense as well. The one thing that I do think makes this bet a little more tasteful is the turnover potential of this game. Drew Allar hasn't turned the ball over yet and Kyle McCord hasn’t been the best versus opposing secondaries. So maybe that might be the difference in the game. Forcing McCord to be uncomfortable, cause some turnovers and give this offense a short field to work with.

I think if this is a field possession game to have Penn State consistently drive the length of the won’t be that great for them. I still do think Penn State covers but if this gets down to 3/3.5 i may try to middle this game.

Bet 1: State Penn vs Ohio State U 48 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)

Bet 2: State Penn +5.5 -120 Win 1u (FanDuel)

Amazing that these two clowns are responsible for the most important game today. Can’t wait for some questionable decisions that will definitely affect the outcome

Got to show some love for the Future Troops

Air Force vs Navy (Air Force -10, O/U 33.5, 12pm CBS)

First of the academy showdowns for the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy so it definitely warrants a write up. These games might not always be the best “football” per say but always great to watch the triple option go against each other. Navy has gone to a hybrid triple option but Air Force has stuck to its bread and butter. Game will be in Annapolis with 10 mph winds, no cross wind though, and a nice 61 degrees so some perfect fall weather for an academy game.

This Air Force team has been great this year and you have to say that Air Force has been the best out of the academies in the past couple years. Navy and Army are usually the headline with the last game of the year but this Air Force program is for real and it has been shown with their success in the mountain west under Troy Calhoun.

Last year they were great with QB Haziq Daniels and FB Brad Roberts and with them leaving I thought this offense would take a step back. If anything they have taken a step forward. This offense is tremendous. They grade out as a top 5 offense in terms of PPA and Success Rate which is kind of crazy to think. They stick to the triple option and have been unbelievable staying ahead of the chains. There are your occasional throws here and there but it's that traditional triple option that has been so great. And in order to be able to defend the triple option you have to be sound and be able to get great push with your defensive line.

Navy does have the advantage of its familiarity of the triple option so it's not as foreign as it is to some teams on a week's worth of prep. And their numbers in the areas that you need to stop the run are not bad. Top 25 in power success rate which is a big deal with the expectation that academies love to get into 3rd and 4th and short and they are top half of the country in line yards and stuff rate. You would like these numbers to be a little better but because of the familiarity with the triple option the navy defense should be okay and with the announcement of QB Zac Larrier being out for some time from coach Troy Calhoun on Tuesday, that was big news.

Now, the Navy offense from a glance hasn’t been all that great. But if you look at their scores they actually had 4 straight games scoring 24 or more points prior to last week vs Charlotte. Air Force is the anomaly with the service academies with how good they grade out because a 3 to 4 yard gain is really not all that bad. So sometimes the success rate metrics and PPA numbers are not all that great for these service academies.

But the one thing that they have actually been decent at is creating explosive plays. Shocking to come from a service academy but Navy has been okay with the pass.

Their actual completion percentage is pretty horrible but their yards per completion is actually impressive. They are #1 in pass play explosiveness. Definitely something that is a little inflated but being able to complete those big pass plays to surprise that defense is something to keep this air force defense on their toes. And another thing that may be a little concerning about the air force defense is that they rank outside 75 in Line Yards, Power Success Rate and stuff rate meaning that they have been able to generate a good initial surge against a lot of the offensive lines that they have played against. The one thing that the Navy has been terrible at though is converting their opportunities when they get into opponents territory. 116th in the country in points per opportunity but Air Force is 88th so maybe it is something that they can be better at.

Anytime there is a service academy that is favored by more than 10 points it's usually an autoplay on the dog because it's so hard to break open a game with how slow the offenses play. And whenever a service academy is a double digit dog they usually fare well because again they limit possessions that a team gets so it's hard for that team to pull away if they have long methodical drives that score. So based on that logic, with the spread being 10.5 this should probably be an autoplay on Navy +10.5. With Air Force not having their QB this definitely adds to this case. I would not fault anyone for taking Navy +10.5. I’m just a little scared that this Air Force offense may struggle a little and then start imposing their will in the second half. But nothing wrong with taking Navy +10.5.

So building off of that I’m going to be on the 1H under. Since 2005 when service academies have played each other the under is 42-9-1. Basically printing money. I actually liked the over if the Air Force QB was in because of how potent the offense is but that is not the case. After QB Jensen Jones took over for QB Zac Larrier in the first two drives of the last game he fumbled twice. Might have been some nerves but still not great. So I think this offense takes a little bit of a step back without Larrier. Ball handling is a huge part of this offense.

I think with a week to prepare he should be improved but this isn’t the same potent offense and this helps out the Navy defense. Larrier is the team's second leading rusher so he is a big part of this offense.

It may take a little while for this Air Force offense to get going. Jensen hasn’t really had much game experience so to thrust him into a game with so much hype and Navy team which should be hyped up might be a little much in the beginning. Add in that both teams understand how to guard the triple option and this might not be all that pretty.

And I think one thing to note as well is the new clock rules. With the clock not stopping after 1st downs these academies could have 8 to 10 minute drives and then only get a field goal or just punt the ball away. There is a possibility that there are only 5 to 6 possessions in the half and some of them don't get scores then this lines up nicely. I do think that there is the potential that Air Force exerts their will in the second half so I will stay away from the over for the game.

Bet 1: Air Force/Navy 1H U 19.5 -115 Win 1u (DraftKings) Play to 17

Air Force is honoring “Doolittle Raiders” from WWII with these phenomenal jerseys. The academies always have the best jerseys when they play together and it shouldn’t be anything less to represent this country and the future troops that will serve this country. Go get edumacated on the Doolittle Raiders. A great tribute for Air Force. #Murica

Tennessee vs Alabama (Bama -8.5, O/U 47.5 330PM CBS)

The game last year in Rocky Top was incredible. Absolute track meet with Jalin Hyatt going absolutely NUCLEAR and my guy Hendon Hooker balling out. Ending with that crazy knuckleball field goal and Vol nation ripping down the goal posts for them to take it out of the stadium. Just absolute pandemonium at Neyland Stadium. But this game has two completely different teams. Two different QBs with two different casts of stars. Joe Milton steps in for Hendon Hooker and Jalen Milroe steps in for Bryce Young. Now Alabama gets this game back in Tuscaloosa and you have to think they have revenge on their mind.

The Tennessee offense is a little different than last year. Still the same setup with the wide split spread but it’s through the ground this year. And part of that is because Joe Milton STINKS.

Joe Milton might have the strongest arm in the world at throwing football but he couldn’t hit water if he was drowning in the Atlantic. That was the biggest question with him going into the year. And it has reared its ugly head.

And since Josh Heupel is a pretty good offensive coach he plays to his strengths.

They have 3 pretty good running backs and they are rely on those guys to carry the load while lessening the load on Joe Milton. Can’t wait till Nico Iamaleava plays next year and we get the offense that Josh Heupel deserves.

But back to the point that Tennessee has become a run dominant team this year. You look at the underlying metrics for the running game and they are very solid. A team that controls the line scrimmage and is able to get what they want when they want.

What is scary for this Tennessee team is that Alabama is fully aware of this and they are more than capable of shutting it down. The thing that this Alabama team struggles with is explosive plays. And unfortunately Tennessee doesn’t have that because they are an efficient team running the football and Joe Milton has struggled at converting those big plays in the passing game.

And that is only going to be amplified here.

/If Alabama can keep this Tennessee offense behind the chains, then Tennessee has absolutely no chance in this game. Milton threw 22 times last week and only completed 11 passes. If he is around 25 to 30 attempts because they are stuck behind the chains then this is a recipe for disaster. This is the best defense that Tennessee has faced to this point and traveling into Tuscaloosa isn’t going to help. I really think that Tennessee is going to struggle here and then add onto that they struggle to convert their opportunities into touchdowns. So even if there is some success, they haven’t proven that they have been able to capitalize on their opportunities.

Now on the other side of the ball this Tennessee defense has surprised me. Last year they weren’t all that great and more just opportunistic because of how good the offense was. They had a decent pash rush so them being up allowed for that front to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. But this defense up front can do everything. They are stout against the run and good at rushing the quarterback as well. The one thing though that this defense does struggle with mightily is the big play. And what does Jalen Milroe and this offense want to do? Run the ball and let him unleash the cannon.

Milroe is as accurate as Joe Milton in the short to intermediate throws but he throws a great deep ball. He’s very Lamar esque to me in that aspect. Struggles with the touch passes but no problem airing it out. Not to say the book is out but has become very apparent that is what the plan is for this Alabama offense so it is not as much of a mystery as it was in prior weeks.

So, I do think that Tennessee can game plan for it but the issue is can they actual stop it?

The one thing though that does profile well for this Tennessee defense is Alabama’s struggling line. They have not been all that great at protecting Milroe and I think this pash rush should have some success getting to Milroe. In the end though I do think this Tennessee defense will have some success but Milroe and his wide receivers will hit some deep shots that will probably be the difference in this game.

I really like the under in this game. Tennessee at this point is almost one dimensional and unless Joe Milton comes into Tuscaloosa and magically becomes accurate then I see it hard for them to move the ball. I also think with how the game ended last year that Alabama will be fully motivated to shut down this Tennessee offense and stick it to them. And I think on the other side that this Tennessee defense up front should have some success against this Alabama offensive line which has struggled.

If they can consistently stop the run and limit the Milroe bombs they should keep this offense at bay. I still think they will have some Milroe bombs here but not enough for this to get out of hand. I am a little scared that Saban may want to run it up here and not take his foot off the pedal because of what happened last year. I think Tennessee doesn’t get much and their defense is good enough to get enough stops to limit this Alabama offense from going off. If I was to take a side I would lean Alabama. That revenge factor I think is a decent deal here and this defense is more than capable of shutting down this Tennessee offense. If Milroe and this offense comes out hot I see it hard for this Tennessee team to come back.

Bet: Tennessee/Alabama U 48 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet)

Duke vs FSU (FSU -14, O/U 49.5, 7:30PM ABC)

I think if you told me that in early October Duke vs FSU would be the ABC primetime game I would have had a little chuckle. No this isn't college basketball starting early. This is the Mike Elko Dukies who have been great this year and have surprised a lot of people.

Florida State was expected to be very good with what Mike Norvell did with his returning production and being the winners of the “transfer portal”. I think that was on full display especially with Keon Coleman roasting LSU, in hindsight maybe that's not as impressive as we thought it was, but he's a freak. Go look up his one handed catch last week against Syracuse last week. The Syracuse coach was at a loss for words of how good the kid is.

Marvin Harrison Jr is the consensus #1 WR for this upcoming draft but Keon Coleman will be a steal for whoever gets him. Really glad he left Michigan State and we are seeing him play meaningful football.

The big news for the Duke offense this week is the expected return of Riley Leonard this week. He’s a potential pro and is a big boost to this offense that may not exactly have the weapons that Florida State has.

Looking at this Duke offense they haven’t been as great as they were last year. I think part of that is because there aren’t as many weapons, they aren’t playing as much of a cupcake schedule and Duke isn’t sneaking up on anybody this year with that week 1 win vs Clemson. The one thing that they have an advantage against this Florida State defense is their rushing explosiveness. Pretty much everything else Florida State matches up well against this Duke offense. A lot of strength on strengths. The one thing that worries me though is Riley Leonard’s ability to run coming back from the high ankle sprain.

Usually with high ankle sprains, coming back in two weeks depending on the severity is tough and can really limit your lateral mobility. Luckily this Duke offensive line has been able to keep Riley Leonard upright which is something that will definitely help. Clemson and Notre Dame are the two best defensive lines that this Duke offense have faced and he was sacked just twice which is very impressive. This Florida State D-Line with Jared Verse has some ability to wreak havoc but they haven’t been as great as I thought they would be looking at the numbers. But I think for this offense to achieve their full potential Riley Leonard and his ability to run is such a big deal. He is the second leading rusher on the team averaging 6.9 yards per carry. His ability on designed runs and scrambles creates a lot of opportunities for this team. With him potentially not being 100% I fear this Duke offense won’t be as dynamic and potentially allow for this Florida State defense to tee off on them.

Now since we have seen this FSU offense after their great performance against LSU, they struggled a little.

Almost lost to BC, should have lost to Clemson but they have picked it up in the past two weeks. And last week against Syracuse was the FSU performance that I have been expecting. With Syracuse’s backup QB they thumped them. 41 points, 7.3 YPP, 535 yards of total offense distributed well with 191 on the ground and 344 through the air. But their numbers throughout the year from an efficiency perspective are not where they should be with how much talent is on this offense, both on the offensive line and with their weapons.

Instead, they have been a very explosive offense. Not all that shocking with Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson at WR, Trey Benson at RB and of course Jordan Travis and his true dual threat ability. But the one thing this Duke team is elite at is defending the explosive play. And this offense plays so well into their hands. The strength of this team is the secondary. The way to exploit this Duke defense is to be bruising up front and exploit this defensive line. They rank sub 100 in a bunch of defensive rushing categories. So while the FSU team has not been great at running the ball I think there is the potential for them to run well with their experienced line and they almost may be forced to run the ball with how well this Duke team defends the pass and the big play. So I think if Florida State wants to have success it will be because of Trey Benson and this offensive line. They are more than capable but just have not shown it this year yet.

So for me this profiles as an under game. All the primetime games that Duke has played in this year have been lower scoring games and I think this lines up as well. This duke defense matches up well with this explosive Florida State offense and I think with Riley Leonard’s ankle here we may not get a 100% Riley Leonard.

I think he plays because this is their chance to contend for the ACC and he is a gamer. And if he doesn’t play, forget about it. I think another important part of this is that both defenses are great at limiting the opposing team's ability to score on their end. So even if there is some success by these offenses we may be seeing the field goal units.

I’m down the middle with a side. I think this Duke defense can get enough stops to keep this within two touchdowns. I still think that Riley Leonard won’t be 100% which may limit this offense but I think with this being a lower scoring game that 14 points is still a lot to cover. Now FSU could absolutely come out and thump this Duke team on the ground and flex their muscles but I don't think that happens with this Duke defense. And if that happens I think Mike Elko will make some adjustments to combat that angle.

Bet: Duke/Florida State U 50 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)

Duke better hope that Keon doesn’t decide to be superman like he did against Syracuse. #Keoned

Side Note: I would definitely include Utah/USC in these premier games but with the whole Cam Rising uncertainty I am going to stay away. I think there is a slim chance that he plays and I don’t want to give a bet without having a strong opinion on his status. There are a lot of rumors that he may take a redshirt and then come back next year so they can whoop up on the Big 12. The knee injury appeared worse than what was reported.

Best of the Rest

ULM/Ga Southern O 59.5 -108 Win 1u (FanDuel) 2PM ESPN +

This one is random but both offenses matchup up well against the opposing defenses. Ga Southern let me down a couple weeks ago after getting railroaded by JMU, who is now a certified wagon. This Ga Southern loves to throw the ball and they are super efficient at doing it. Clay Helton has been great at Georgia Southern since he came over from USC and this ULM defense can stop anything through the air. And the only thing ULM can do is run the ball and Ga Southern can’t stop that either. So it profiles well with strengths for both teams. Does scare me a little with ULM running the ball, chewing up the clock and potentially settling for field goals and not scoring touchdowns but I think this Ga Southern team should have a nice bounce back after being thumped by JMU. Should get a GATA (Get after their asses) effort from the Eagles here.

That’s the Georgia Southern Motto.

I didn't just make that up.

Oregon TT O 40.5 -115 Risk 1u (BetRivers) 3:30PM ABC

Oregon lost a tough one last week and now they get to travel back to Eugene to play a sad Washington State team that got absolutely thumped at home by Arizona last week. I think Oregon should be motivated after what happened last week and they can take it out on this Wazzu defense. The book is out on how to stop Cam Ward and I think Oregon is more than capable of slowing him down. So, I’m targeting the TT here for Oregon. This Oregon offense is still great. You could argue they are a conversion or field goal away from being in the same spot that Washington is at this moment. They outgained Washington last week and played very well. Washington just came up with a great final drive. This Oregon team should be able to handle this Wazzu team that doesn’t create much havoc and is not great in standard downs. So I think Oregon should have no problem moving the ball here, hitting some big plays and scoring at will. May get a little dicey if they decide to manhandle them at the line and chew some clock but I think whatever frustration they had losing this game gets taken out on Wazzu.

South Carolina/Mizzou O 58.5 -115 Win 1u (FanDuel) 3:30PM SEC Network

If this is your first time reading the blog then I will introduce my love for this Mizzou offense. QB Brady Cook has been tremendous, WR Luther Burden is a stud and they can absolutely score with the best of them. They put a beat down on Kentucky’s defense last week and it honestly wasn’t even close. This South Carolina defense is trash. Graham Mertz and that pedestrian offense went into the cock’s house and put up 40 on them. WOOOF. So, this doesn’t line up any better for them. They can’t guard the pass and these guys might have an absolute field day. As for the South Carolina side they are a very boom or bust offense which makes sense with Spencer Rattler. I don’t love the kid, but he does have a lot of arm talent. And while this Mizzou defense is pretty good at stopping the run they aren’t as strong against the pass and the explosive play. I think this has the potential to replicate the South Carolina Florida game last week. Little scared that Mizzou may be a little hungover from the big win over Kentucky but on the other side South Carolina should be motivated. Also scared that this is a very public play and wind being involved makes this a sharp play on the under. But I’ll just keep riding this Mizzou team to give me some points here and enjoy Luther Burden putting on a show.

Minnesota/Iowa U 31 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet) 3:30PM NBC

This is just a principle bet.

This stretch of Iowa offenses have been horrendous. It’s the worst offense in the country by a long shot. Jesus, Mary and Joseph are they tough to watch. I apologize for using the lord’s name in vain but I think even Jesus wouldn’t know what to say about this offense.

But you know what their defense and special teams are tremendous. Cooper DeJean is great at cornerback, but their MVP might be their punter Tory Taylor. Honestly you kind of root for him to come on the field because he is so goddamn good. And this Minnesota offense ain’t much better. Their QB the “Greek Rifle” is horrible so they will just be running the ball all game. It wouldn’t shock me if this game was only field goal scores. But when you see a total this low you must bet it to get a good sweat. This could get a little wonky if Iowa special teams and defense have a score or two, but I don’t see the Iowa offense scoring an offensive touchdown. First one to 10 might win this game.

Colorado State TT O 26.5 -125 Risk 1u (DraftKings) 7PM Mountain West Network (Didn’t know that was a channel)

This Colorado State team came off a crazy hail mary to beat Boise State last. You have to be irate if you are a Boise fan as you pretty much had that game locked up and then to lose it like that is absolutely brutal. This is another guy that is a hidden gem but will be playing on Sundays. His name is Tory Horton and get used to him my friends. He’s tremendous. Unfortunately I don’t think a single person has access to the Mountain West Network so you can’t watch this young man eat but he's tremendous. This UNLV team actually has a pretty good offense but the defense is not so great. They can’t defend the explosive play or the pass. I thought this CSU team would be better with explosive plays with Tory Horton and some of their other weapons but they are more of an efficient offense. I think Tory Horton can potentially go nuclear here at the Death Star in Vegas and help this team to 4 to 5 touchdowns.

Army/LSU O 57.5 -115 Win 1u (FanDuel) 7:30PM Sec Network

Back on my BS with these LSU overs. Learned last week it doesn’t matter who is on the other side, it's just this LSU offense going into hyperdrive. I have my Michael Penix Jr Heisman ticket, but you could argue that Jayden Daniels has been the best player in the country this year. If they don’t lose to Ole Miss, I think he is the Heisman frontrunner. His numbers are tremendous and the rest of the stats for his weapons are out of control as well. I also took him preseason to win the Heisman so I am in decent shape in the Heisman market. I’m going to be honest I don’t know how the troops get a stop here. LSU painted the endzones in Camo which looks tremendous and is a great hat tip to West Point but this could get ugly. I want to get a TT O under 45 just in case army doesn’t hold up their end of the bargain. We will see how much Brian Kelly respects the troops here. They have a bye week here before Alabama so I don’t think there is a lookahead but maybe he spots the troops 14 to 17 points and we get an over.

Michigan TT O 34.5 -120 Risk 1u (DraftKings) 7:30PM NBC

Lot of rumblings are coming out that this Michigan team is stealing signs from other teams. I don’t think it matters for some of the teams they have played but if you watch the Schiano halftime press conference he alluded to something being off. So there might actually be some legs to the allegations. Michigan State should come out here and throw the kitchen sink at this Michigan team. They probably aren’t making a bowl and this is definitely their super bowl. However, this Michigan team has been just rolling everybody. Michigan State defense actually grades out ok but I think they should get bullied in the trenches. Little scared that because this offense is more methodical than explosive they will just chew clock here but I find it hard that this Michigan State defense gets enough stops to do that. Michigan has started slow but when they put their foot on the pedal none of these inferior teams have been able to stop them. Michigan State should be super motivated but I think the talent wins out here. Was waiting for under 35 for this number and got it.

Lets cover some bar tabs today!

-Nick Leone