Dick’s Picks: Week 5 Roundup
Photo by Vasha Hunt from the Associated Press
Week 4 Takeaways
USC is in for a long season.
There really are no words to describe Caleb Wiliams and what he can do, but that defense is an absolute catastrophe.
To allow Colorado to get back into that game and make it competitive is a little alarming. I went on a rant last week about play calling in college football and Colorado was another prime example of it. Why are you running the football when you are down 14 with no timeouts with less than 5 minutes left?!? You can’t stop the clock if USC gets the ball so your only chance of winning is recovering the onside kick.
But I digress.
That defense STINKS OUT LOUD. They play Notre Dame in two weeks and you already know I will be on whatever number is laid out there. I would even go out on a limb to say that Notre Dame might be a short favorite.
If there is a + sign next to Notre Dame give it to me. Inject it in my veins. The USC defense is a real problem and not a good problem. I don’t know how this clown Alex Grinch still has a job. He must have some blackmail on Lincoln Riley or be giving him some rub and tugs before the game. Supposed to be this defensive wizard but they just straight up stink.
And keeping with defenses. Good lord does LSU not have a defense. The word abomination doesn’t do them justice. Ole Miss doesn’t have much but that's never really been their identity. If they play any competent offense I’m just going to bet the over. Don’t care how public it is. Until they show me they can stop a nosebleed I'll keep betting their overs. I already bet the Mizzou/LSU over. I really wish they had a defense because the offense is phenomenal. Could argue that if they had a defense that Jayden Daniels might be a top 3 Heisman candidate because of how different the results would be. He has been nothing short of sensational and was last night as well.
Yesterday may have been the opportunity to give Georgia a loss. Auburn played as well as they could but then my dear friend Brock Bowers decided to put the team on his back. He's been ready to play in the NFL since he stepped on campus at Georgia but yesterday was incredible. Carson Beck is only going to get better as the year goes along so you imagine the offense only improves and Kirby will have that defense ready to go.
They go to Tennessee which will be tough but they get Kentucky and Ole Miss at home. Still have the SEC Championship game but should be smooth sailing the rest of the year.
And last but not least Florida Stinks. I’m so glad they got thumped yesterday. It was basically the Ray Davis show for Kentucky and Florida had no idea what to do. I didn’t understand that movement of the line going from 3 to basically a pick. Always nice to be on the side of a no doubt winner. Kentucky plays Georgia next week so interested to see what they can do in a game that has historically been a rock fight.
Big Picture
After yesterday's results out of the SEC, I think it solidifies that it is a 0 or 1 bid league for the playoff. I think LSU will go into Bama and beat them, hopefully they get a defense by then, and then you have a jumble in the SEC West.
Bama could always lose to Texas A&M this weekend which would make things even more interesting. Real shame that their QB got hurt but they have a more than capable backup with Max Johnson. But the SEC West winner will most likely have two losses and if they go and beat Georgia what does the committee do?
If Texas wins this week against Oklahoma I don't see them losing the rest of the way out, so that is one spot, the Big 10 winner whether its State Penn, Michigan or Ohio State will get a bid and then a one loss PAC 12 team should get in as well. I think those are the locks so the 4th is between Florida State if they hold onto their undefeated record, potentially a second big 10 team if they only have 1 loss and crazy enough maybe a second PAC 12 team. I assume that the situation will sort itself out and there will be chaos but the committee might be in a tough spot at the end of the year.
I touched on it above but USC is in trouble. The defense is non-existent so they are going to need to win games by scoring 40+ every week. They are more than capable but eventually it will come back to haunt them. I really hope they lose to ND and Washington and then we don’t have to hear about them anymore. But what could suck is that they could make the PAC 12 championship, win and then the good ole PAC 12 cannibalizes themselves again.
Would be a fitting swan song for the conference in its last year.
Betting Recap
Cumulative CFB Record 65-71-4 -1.51u
Saturday Record 12-10 +3.03u
Spread: 4-2 +.77u
TTs: 2-3 -.88u
O/U: 4-2 +2.75u
Parlays: 0-3 -1.61u
Teasers: 1-0 +1u
ML: 1-0 +1u
What I hit on the head (Golf Clap)
THE WHOLE OLE MISS GAME (Ole Miss +3. O/U 62.5 & Ole Miss TT O 32.5): I bet that total early honestly they couldn't have set it high enough. Almost cleared that in the first half along with the Ole Miss TT over as well. I have no idea what they are going to do with LSU totals the rest of the year. But the Ole Miss offense was tremendous, LSU offense was no slouch either but the Ole Miss defense made the last stand. I said that would be the difference and in the end they stopped them on that final drive. That bend not break mentality came through. Was very happy with the result of the game. Gave that out to a lot of people as my favorite bet and that's always nice to make some cash for some people and be able to watch a GREAT GAME.
Georgia/Auburn Game as well: Another game that I bet early in the week. That total ended up being a big deal with the 47.5 because of that last score. But Georgia started to figure it out towards the end but Auburn played with great energy and the crowd was tremendous. Luckily they have a bye next week or else it would be an auto play against them. Brock Bowers was superman in the end but it was pretty much a rock fight and went to script.
Kentucky ML: Graham Mertz stinks. That team stinks. That was free money, feel bad for anybody that bought into the Florida hype.
And what went WRONG
South Alabama +3.5: I don't know what the hell is going on with the jaguars. I liked them going into the year. Thought it would be a good spot for them and I was wrong. Carter Bradley threw two picks and Jordan McCloud played great for JMU. I probably will have to bet on them again at some point but that was disappointing and I think my future with them is dead in the water. There definitely is still some talent on the team so they just need to figure something out.
Duke/Notre Dame Over: I think this was probably one of the biggest flops of my handicapping so far this year. I think I got a little too cute with my analysis on Duke being a great running team and that Notre Dame had some issues defending the explosive rush plays. They hadn’t played a defense as good as Notre Dame and it showed. It was a gross game and the under was clearly the right play. Sneaky almost could have had the over if Riley Leonard made some magic on that last drive and got some OT. Very gutsy performance by that Irish team after such a tough loss to OSU. So I was definitely impressed by them and Sam Hartman
And a BAD BEAT
USC TT O 48.5: I SWEAR TO GOD I HAVE SOME BAD JUJU BETTING AGAINST COLORADO AND THEIR OPPONENTS TT Os. USC MISSES AN EXTRA POINT AND THEN THEY MISS THE FIELD GOAL. AND THEIR TOTAL LANDS ON 48!!!!!!!! WAS READY TO JUMP OFF THE ROOF. GLAD THAT WASN’T AN OMEN OF WHAT WAS TO COME. If that's a win I’m in the black for the year. Don’t know if the Oregon loss from last week was worse or this one.
Followed by a backdoor of all backdoor covers
UAB/Tulane O 55: I will say the handicap of this one was spot on. The fighting Trent Dildos played well. But the way the over cashed was in tremendous fashion. It really shouldn’t have been close with it being 21 to 20 with 13:35 left in the third quarter. Defenses got some stops and the scoring became stagnant. But Tulane had the ball on UAB 32 with 54 seconds left. UAB had no timeouts. It's 4th and 9. Tulane runs a pass play and scores a touchdown. So unnecessary but that’s why I love gambling. No better rush than cashing a Tulane/UAB over in late september. Was tracking it through the action network app and didn’t know how to react. Think that was the gambling gods giving me that USC TT O in another fashion.
Looking ahead
Season Early Bet Record 11-4-1+6.44u
Last Week Early Bets 4-1 +2.9u
Auburn +17 -110 (Win) (Closed at 14.5)
Georgia/Alabama U 47.5 -110 (Win) (Closed at 45.5 and the game landed on 47!)
Alabama/Miss St U 49 -110 (Loss) (Closed at 45.5)
UAB/Tulane O 55 -112 (Win) (Closed at 59.5)
LSU/Ole Miss O 62.5 -110 (Win) (Closed at 66.5)
Bets I have already made
LSU/Mizzou O 61.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel)
Touched on this earlier but I think this is just going to be an autoplay for me going forward. If LSU plays a competent offense just bet the over. And Mizzou has that with an underrated offense with my guys Brady Cook and Luther Burden. They have been on the injury report but have played the past two weeks. So I may be jumping the gun here but I'll take my chances. And can LSU guard them. Ummmmmm…..nope. Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense is great. A little scared we get a flat LSU team after that loss going to Mizzou for an early kick but think we get some points here. Think this closes around 63/64 so I’ll scoop up the 61 and the hook.
Ga Tech/Miami O 60 -110 Win 1u (BetRivers)
Miami’s coming out party was against Texas A&M. I was very impressed with their offense. Tyler Van Dyke is back to what he looked like at the end of the 2021 season. And I love this scrappy Georgia Tech team. I don't know how they lost to the dogshit team of Bowling Green on saturday. But they should be motivated. I don't think they have the defense to slow down this Miami offense and think they can get their fair share of points to help out with this total.
ArKANSAS +12 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings)
More of a bet on Ole Miss than on ArKANSAS. ArKANSAS is reeling at the moment. Lost 3 in a row and it hasn't been pretty and Ole Miss is coming off that enormous victory against LSU. Wish this was in Arkansas because that would be even better. Obviously a better number but still. I definitely think there will be a hangover for this Ole Miss team. If they show up they can easily romper room this ArKANSAS team. But I’ll take the 12 hoping that ArKANSAS comes out motivated. Would love this more at 14 but I don’t think that's gonna happen and think it closes closer to 10.
Kentucky/Georgia U 48.5 -110 Win 1u (Caesars)
Touched on this earlier but these games have been historically rock fights and I think this will follow suit. Kentucky always struggles against this Georgia team. In the past 4 games against Georgia, Kentucky has scored only 22 points. Ray Davis is basically their whole offense and I think Kirby and his staff know that and will have a good gameplan. Georgia showed some offensive cohesion towards the end of the game. They simplified the offense… give it to Brock Bowers. Think this is another rock fight and definitely think this number will be closer to 45 as we get to gametime.
Bets I am just waiting for a better “Number”
Georgia Tech +20/+21 or Better (Currently at 18.5)
Georgia Tech just lost to Bowling Green at home which is just pathetic. So I don't think anybody is going to want to bet on this team this week. They are playing a Miami team that last time we really saw them they put on a clinic vs Texas A&M. Miami will be super public so hopefully there is some steam and I'll take it with the opportunity for Tech to backdoor.
UCLA -2.5 or Better (Currently at 3)
Last time we saw UCLA they played that ugly game against Utah. It was Dante Moore’s first start in a crazy environment. The offense looked bad and I think it was a bad spot for him. Wazzu on the other hand has been amazing. Cam Ward has been great. But I think maybe we get a Cam Ward game with a couple turnovers. Think Wazzu will be a public dog this week and public dogs go to die oh so often. So see if I can get a little steam and get this under 3.
Cheers,
-Nick Leone
