Dick’s Picks: Week 5 Primer

Photo from Sports Radio Knoxville

Hello Friends,

Might be another couple years until we get a slate like that and it didn't disappoint. Hard to follow that up but now we are in conference play and still have some premiere games to look forward to. Bunch of the blue bloods are on their bye week but still a premiere matchup in the PAC 12, Big 12, ACCish (Notre Dame is ACC adjacent) & SEC. Never going to get back to back slates like last week but always have to appreciate a college football Saturday. AND HERE WE GO!

Bet Record for Big Games (12-9-2 +2.6u, O/Us 5-1-1 +3.4u, Spreads 5-4-1 +.69u, TTs 1-4 -2.44u, ML 1-0 +1.03u)

Last Week (4-3-2 +.38u, 1-0-1 O/Us +1u, Spreads 3-2-1 +.48u , TTs 0-1 -1.1u)

“Big Noon Kickoff”

USC vs Colorado (USC -21.5, O/U 72.5, 12PM FOX)

Colorado’s magic start to the season finally went poof at Eugene and I think there were a ton of people rooting for that demise. Regardless of what people say Deion is great for college football. Colorado used to be a legit contender back in the day and to bring the spotlight to a team that was 1-11 last year and started the year 3 and 0 and exceeded everybody’s expectations.

Now, the way ESPN covers them might be over the top but the story is great nonetheless. ESPN ruins a lot of things so I just ignore those clowns from Bristol.

The manner that it happened was a little surprising. I thought it was going to be be a beatdown but that was an asswhooooping. The prior games didn’t provide any indication if Colorado was any good or not. Week 1, TCU had no idea what to expect, I would be interested to see if that game was played again what would happen, Nebraska is straight up dooky and Colorado State probably should have won that game. They were outclassed in the trenches on both sides of the ball which is what people thought was going to be a problem going into the season. Now big bad USC rolls into Boulder for the Fox Big Noon Kickoff.

USC’s offense has been electric. Caleb Williams is amazing and is probably one of the better if not the best college football players we have seen in the past 5 years. He has always been surrounded by great talent but the plays he makes are Mahomes-esque at the college level. If the play goes to shit somehow Caleb makes a highlight out of it. Similar to last week with Oregon, USC should be able to do whatever they want. USC is pretty much top 10 in any offensive category you look at and on the other side Colorado’s defense is outside the top 100. In short words it may look like Men vs boys if they really want to put it on them. The environment should be great, even though the game being at 10am local kick sucks, but I don't think that will be something that will really affect Caleb Williams and this potent offense.

Now on the defensive side of the ball, USC defense is #notgreat. The defense struggles with explosive plays and is not great at stopping the run either. And if you look at who they played these are alarming stats for their upcoming opponents. They have played San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford and Arizona State. No real world beaters and on top of it they gave up 28 points to an ASU team that the week prior had 0 points and 8 turnovers to a solid but not great Fresno State team. Yes you read that right 8!!!! As Leclown James said not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, not 5, not 6, not 7 but 8. So if they don’t start showing some improvement they are going to get absolutely embarrassed by Notre Dame, Washington, Oregon, Utah and UCLA. I really wish I took their win total under, but hindsight is 20-20. As for the Colorado offense they relied on Sheduer being superman in the first three weeks to convert on third downs while running for his life. That was exposed in Oregon. He was sacked 7 times and didn’t really stand a chance and the USC defense has been decent at getting to the QB this season. Is the Colorado O-line really a step up from the teams USC has played? Probably not, but I think sometimes you need an ass kicking to realize where your problems are. I think with them knowing that their line isn’t all that great they will try to gameplan for that. It stinks that Shedeur isn’t a Jalen Milroe-esque runner because I think him being a true running threat would be an auto play on the 21.5 for Colorado. Colorado has shown that they can be explosive almost boom or bust at times and having that aspect of being able to run the ball would put them over the top with this porous USC defense.

The line opened up around 23 and has been hit by pro money. I think under 21.5 is a play for USC and over 21.5 is for Colorado. I don’t know if I have big enough kahunas to take the 21.5 for a full unit for the potential that you sit on the couch at 12 and by 1230 it's 21 to 0 USC and your bet is dead in the water. So I will be on it for half a unit.

Going to be a pros vs joes with Pros being on Colorado and the public being on USC. I think what my bigger play will be is on the USC TT O. Last week Oregon absolutely stabbed us in the back with 35 in the first half and only scored a single touchdown in the second half to keep it under 45.5. I wish I could take the first half TT O of 24.5 for USC but that hook is killing me. God forbid USC turns it over, Colorado gets a stop or maybe has a long drive and it lands on 24. If Colorado keeps it relatively close in the first half I think USC doesn’t have any reason to stop scoring. So I'm hoping we get a little better effort from Colorado which makes USC continue to have to give effort. As for the game total. I don’t love it as much as the USC TT O. With my logic and liking Colorado to cover the 21.5 and USC to get over 48.5 then the over should be an auto play. In the back of my mind though I could see this getting ugly and it turns into the same as last week, so I am just mitigating that potential. So I like USC getting theirs and having a little taste of Colorado keeping it a little interesting.

Substitute those Colorado colors and this may be a recurring image in Boulder on Saturday

Bet 1: USC TT O 48.5 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings)

Bet 2: Colorado +22 -110 Win .5u

Midday Slate

Kansas vs Texas (Texas -16.5, O/U 61.5, 3:30PM ABC)

It’s crazy to say, but Kansas football isn’t sneaking up on anybody anymore. Their coach Lance Leibold is for real, he has won everywhere he has gone and his QB Jalon Daniels is for real. There was a reason he was the Big 12 Preseason OPY (Offensive Player of the Year). They have had a great start to the season and have handled business in every step of the way. In every important offensive category they have been great. Along with Daniels they have a great RB in Devin Neal who is probably one of the more underrated backs in the country. They don’t turn the ball over and are a very efficient offense.

The first instinct when I saw this number and with my love for Kansas would be to take them getting 17 along with the over because of how good the offense is.

However, when you take a look at the numbers this Texas defense is fantastic. I think in the past years the Texas defense has been very meh and has had a pro here or there. This defense on the other hand is for real. In pretty much every category that Kansas is good or great in Texas is either equivalent in strength or better. And especially in the trenches. They have been phenomenal at stopping early down plays and keeping offenses behind the chains. It’s not crazy to say but the Kansas offense will probably be the best offense that Texas faces so I think it will be a good challenge to see if these stats/trends hold.

Yes, I just said that KANSAS, not ALABAMA has a better offense and it's not basketball.

If you told me 15 years ago that in the year of our lord 2023 that KANSAS would be a better offense in football than ALABAMA and ALABAMA’s offense in basketball would be better than KANSAS’s, I think everybody would say you need to go get a lobotomy because that peanut on a stink ain’t working all that well.

Since Kansas had the crazy win against Texas in ‘21 along with their continued success, Texas will be up for the challenge and it won’t necessarily be a sleepy spot. They know if they don't show up Kansas can burn them and put up points in a hurry. I think that was apparent last year where Texas thumped them 55 to 16 and didn't take Kansas for granted. Now Texas does have Oklahoma looming in the Red River Rivalry, we don’t say the word S****Out anymore. But I think with last year’s whooping vs OKlahoma and Kansas being for real means this isn’t a look ahead spot.

As for the Texas offense vs Kansas defense, they should have some success. I thought the Texas offensive stats would be better but other than the Bama game and last week against Baylor they haven't had any special performances. So I think they should be able to get theirs, but the one thing that is in favor for the under here is Kansas’s ability to create big plays. They are aggressive on defense and this may lead to some breakdowns but they are very good at creating those “havoc” plays. I think they know they are overmatched in a lot of areas and to hold this offense in check they have to take some risks. In the end I think Kansas gets some big plays whether it be a sack, interception or fumble that halts one or two drives of Texas and gets us to counter with the under.

Similar to last week with taking Texas/Baylor under, that was one of my luckier wins, go check that box score/game log, but Texas could easily get to a crazy number in here in the 40s and you wouldn’t need much from this Kansas team. I also like that the over has been a very public side garnering almost 85% of the bet. Making me believe that everybody is under the opinion that both of these offenses are great and won't be stopped. Dig under the hood a little more and there may be more to it than that. As for the side, I would lean Texas just because I believe in this defense and think the offense should have success. The spread at 17 may leave some backdoor opportunities especially since I think this will go under. I do think that Texas comes out strong though so I will be on them 1st half spread for smaller.

Bet 1: Kansas/Texas U 62 -113 Win 1u (BetRivers)

Bet 2: Kansas 1H -9.5 -110 Win .5u

Under the Lights

LSU vs Ole Miss (LSU -2.5, O/U 67.5, 6PM ESPN)

Arguably the best game of the week and the one with most implications for the SEC West and potentially the playoff. If LSU wins here, Ole Miss is pretty much eliminated from the SEC west and if they run the table and potentially beat Georgia it will make things very difficult on the committee.

Since the FSU game the LSU offense has been great. Jayden Daniels has performed at the level people thought going into this year. People forget he was a top 5 Heisman candidate based on Vegas odds going into the year.

The defense on the other hand. WOOOOF. Pretty much any important category they are abysmal. You name it they stink at it. They can’t guard the pass and can’t stop the run. I was very high on this team coming into the year and took them to win the SEC West, make the playoff and even a little sprinkle on their Natty odds. But the defense has been less than impressive.

I understand week 1 you may struggle against an FSU team that has a very good offense but then to have the performance against Arkansas, a team that scored 28 against a woeful Kent State, where they got into a track meet and had to make a last second field goal to get out of dodge. Just a tad concerning.

Now, Ole Miss comes off that pretty ugly loss against Alabama. They didn’t really do anything great. They struggled to run the ball, struggled on 3rd downs and most importantly went 2 of 4 in the red zone.

So after playing Georgia Tech, Tulane and Mercer, I think it might creep into people’s minds that this Ole Miss offense is not good and playing against a legit SEC team exposed that.

I think that's a little bit of an exaggeration.

It was a great spot for Alabama coming off that terrible performance vs USF and hosting Ole Miss at home playing for their SEC West lives. And as this season goes by it is very possible that the Alabama defense ends up being an elite defense in the country. The numbers are only going to get better as they get further away from that Texas game. And guess what? I said it above but the LSU defense STINKS. Ole Miss is more comparable to the FSU offense than Arkansas and I think they should have some success. Whether that is on the ground with arguably the best running back in the country in Quinshon Judkins or with the multiple receivers that Ole miss has to create scoring explosive plays in the passing game. And add on the fact that Jaxon Dart has shown that he is not afraid to leave the pocket and be a threat with his legs may turn this into an ugly game for the Tigers. Lane Kiffin has shown that he is an offensive wizard in his time as both the offensive coordinator at Bama and in his time at Ole Miss. With him knowing that LSU hasn’t done much on defense I think he has a nice mix of run and pass that keeps this defense on their heels all game.

Now for the Ole Miss defense, I don't think they are really all that great. You see them hold Alabama to 24 points in years past and that's definitely a pat on the back and almost worth a CFP birth. But this Alabama offense isn't the same as the Alabama offenses we’ve become accustomed to in years past. The difference in this game will be the performance of this Ole Miss defense. They have actually been okay this year. You can say from the competition they played that the numbers should be better but the one thing and I think it helps being under the lights at the “Grove” is that they are a havoc minded defense. Top 10 in the country in havoc plays so if they do have a lead there will be some opportunities to take chances along with the fact that they have been bend not break mentality in their own end. LSU will still get their points but the Ole Miss defense gets a stop or two more to propel them to cover and a victory. Add in the fact that this is Ole Miss playing for their SEC West lives in the “Grove”, give me the Lane Train and his landsharks to pull this off. Really hope they rock the baby blues on Saturday night.

These jerseys show up in the grove on saturday night and it's an automatic DUB.

Bet 1: Ole Miss +3 -110 Win 1u (Caesars)

Bet 2: LSU/Ole Miss O 62.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel). Wrote this up earlier in the week and still like it up to 68 which is insane to say but I think we get a team in the 40s here.

Bet 3: Ole Miss TT O 32.5 -120 Win 1u (DraftKings) If you don’t like the game total take this one

Notre Dame vs Duke (Notre Dame -5.5, O/U 52 7:30PM ABC)

I bet against Duke last week thinking there may be a little overlook to this game, and boy was I wrong about that. I knew UConn was horrid but Duke really flexed their muscles in that game and showed they aren’t playing around. This has to be the biggest game for Duke Football in the past 20 years. So they will definitely be up for this game, ain't no doubt about it.

Now on the other side how does Notre Dame handle that last second loss where they realistically should have won and were one play away? I honestly don’t know and I think that's the biggest impact to the handicap. I would like to believe that since they are led by Sam Hartman and have veterans on their team that they pick themselves up and see this as an opportunity to bounce back and prepare for USC & Louisville in the upcoming weeks. But you never know with a bunch of college kids.

Duke has been great this year and going into the season I wasn't very high on them. I thought it was a flash in the pan and that the defense losing their best player would take a step back. But I was mistaken. The performance against Clemson was impressive and they have handled business the rest of the year. It’s been against some inferior opponents but covering all those games and winning them in pretty dominant fashion is a sign of a well coached and focused team. They are led by QB Riley Leonard who will have his name called if he leaves this year and they have some nice skill position players led by Jalen Calhoun. The offense has been full steam ahead. It has been very efficient and has been great on the ground. They ran for 199 against a very good Clemson defense and otherwise than Connecticut they have been over 200+ in their other games. They did struggle a little bit against UConn on the ground but the numbers still check out very well.

I think the Notre Dame defense showed that they were stingy last weekend holding the Ohio State offense to 17 points. The defense played great but the decision making by Ryan Day and play of Kyle McCord minus the last drive were the limiting factors. Duke has shown some success getting explosive run plays which I think Notre Dame is a little susceptible to. Treveyon Henderson had that big run last week and they surprisingly rank in the middle of the pack limiting explosive runs, which surprised me a little. Duke has been solid at getting points on the board they have gotten into opponents scoring territories which should also help this over. I think they also use Riley Leonard’s legs in this game which can create some more explosive runs as well. So I think with the potential sleepy start for Notre Dame I think we get some points here from the Dukies.

Notre Dame should have won the game last week and you really wonder what kind of effort they show up with this week. I think Sam Hartman leading the charge of this offense should be alright.

No matter what though, this offense has been great at wearing their opponent down with the run and then beating them over the top for explosive plays.

Now the one thing that Duke is elite at is limiting explosive plays. Whether that be because they played against some putrid offenses and had a great performance against Clemson, will be put to the test. They definitely will limit some explosive plays just because of how good Mike Elko is as a defensive coach.

But this Notre Dame offense is a different animal.

I think after having success running the ball they will be able to hit some shots once Duke has to commit more to the box. Also remember that Clemson did move the ball pretty well against Duke. Their biggest issue was the 2 turnovers inside the Duke 10 along with the two missed/blocked field goals. Clemson was their own worst enemy in that game. I think Notre Dame is a step above that Clemson offense with Hartman, RB Audric Estime and their offensive line. Add on the fact that Notre Dame has been great at scoring when they get into their opponents side of the 40 and this is another reason to like this Notre Dame team to get some points and go and bet the over.

There are a couple things that may limit this over and give me a little hesitancy with the pick.

The first and most obvious being that Notre Dame could come out extremely flat here. If they don't have success on the ground and don’t hit their explosive pass plays the offense could be stagnant and Duke could win an ugly low scoring game.

And then add in that both defenses have been solid at limiting scoring opportunities which could lead to field goals or turnover on downs which are over killers. I think the recency bias with Notre Dame playing in a 17 to 14 game in primetime has kind of swayed bettors to take this under and I have to remind myself how good this offense has been in their other games. Granted not against as good of competition but they still marched up and down the field. As for the side, I think it's whether or not Notre Dame wants to show.

If Notre Dame asserts their dominance I think it's going to be tough for Duke to keep up in the trenches. Duke’s game plan will be great but there is more talent on Notre Dame's side. Now the same could be said about Clemson but Sam Hartman and this offense is a little different than Cade Klubnik and Clemson week 1.

Bet: Notre Dame/Duke O 51.5 -115 Win 1u (FanDuel) (Like it up to 52)

Rounding out the Week

Follow up on the Early Bets

UAB/Tulane O 55 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers) Currently at 58.5 (12PM ESPN2)

Wrote about this UAB team playing fast and not giving up which will lead to overs. Add in that Tulane has Michael Pratt and this offense to give UAB the business and I understand the line going up throughout the week. I think this might be the highest it gets. Like it up to 59.

Auburn +17 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel) Currently at 14.5 (330PM CBS)

Auburn/Georgia U 47.5 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet) Currently at 45.5

Georgia hasn’t been themselves on offense but the defense has been solid. Auburn has been awful on offense and solid on defense. So this lines up for the under well and as you can see its dropped two points since opener and I still like it at 45.5. I’m just banking on this being a rock fight. Was surprised to see FanDuel post a 17 but snagged it up. I would realistically take it down to 14.5 but after that it may get a little hairy. Auburn has been dreadful on offense but it is possible the first to 20 wins this game. I think Auburn gets a trick play and then maybe a big defensive/special team play to make this one a little interesting. Jordan Hare isn't an easy place to play and that being Carson Beck’s first road start is a tall task.

Alabama/Miss St U 49 -110 Win 1u (BetRivers) Currently at 47 (9PM ESPN)

Think this is a sleepy spot for Alabama off the big win and playing in StarkVegas at night might make it only more eerie. Miss State hasn’t been all that great offensively and last week though showed flashes of being improved. Think it's a little different playing against this Alabama defense. The Alabama offense still hasn't shown much and I think this ends up being an ugly game. Would lean towards Miss St with +14.5 but don’t have big enough balls to take it.

Best of the Rest (1u Plays)

Did this last week with buying low and selling high.. We went 0-3-1. So why don’t we run it back

South Alabama +3.5 -118 Win 1u (BetRivers) (12PM ESPNU)

I think this is the peak of James Madison. 4 and 0 with a new quarterback but have their wins been all that great? They beat Bucknell, UVA, Troy, and Utah State. The UVA game took a miracle comeback with a rain delay. I think Troy is a little down, wink wink they may show up in this segment, and Utah State has a possibility to lose to UConn this week. So in short they have not done much. Can’t knock the record but I think it's a fraudulent 4 and 0. And this line is slowly moving down. And this may be the lowest that we get this South Alabama team. South Alabama just lost to Central Michigan. Woof. Their schedule has been a little different. They lost to Tulane, who is the leader in the clubhouse for AAC, a FCS team & an Oklahoma State team at home. I think the central Michigan game was a sleepy spot before the start of conference play. I took South Alabama as my winner for the Sun Belt and am going to stick with my guns. Think they win this one outright.

Troy +1.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel) (7PM ESPN+)

Brian touched on this in his blog but the Georgia State team has really shocked some people but again, who have they played? UConn, Charlotte, Rhode Island & Coastal Carolina. Now you see Coastal Carolina and think they are good but it's not a Coastal team of old. Since Jamie Chadwell left for Liberty they haven't been the same and Liberty has looked pretty good. Troy lost to Kansas State, JMU and beat WKU and Stephen F Austin. You look at the line and see it being a little short and scratch your head. This Georgia State is a little fraudulent at 4 and 0 and I think Vegas is laying a little trap here with Troy to get a good start in the sun belt.

Kentucky ML -115 Win 1u (12PM ESPN)

This is as simple as I think Graham Mertz stinks. I faded them last week after their huge win in the swamp against the Vols and we got the cover with lowly Charlotte. Kentucky has not looked all that great against some not so great competition but them handling Vanderbilt last week was a step in the right direction. That game screamed a potentially sleepy spot with overlook to Florida and they handled business. I’ll admit my bias is definitely part of this pick. When I first saw the line I thought the line would go up to 3.5. The line has in fact gone the opposite way. I think people believe in this Florida defense along with their run game which would allow Graham Mertz to make some easy throws. This should be a rock fight so I believe in both defenses but I'm just going to bank on Graham Mertz making a key mistake in a big spot(s). If Florida wins the game because of Graham Mertz i’ll take it on the chin. The kid stinks and until he goes into a hostile SEC environment my opinion of him wont change. He stunk at Rice Eccles, obviously nowhere near what Lexington will be at 11am local start but it's still an away game in the SEC against one of their rivals.

And last not but not least. My favorite Team Totals

Missouri TT O 34.5 -115 Win 1u (DraftKings) (4PM SEC Network)

Vanderbilt is 5 and 0 to the over. They haven't been able to stop anybody and their offense is actually alright throwing the ball well with AJ Swann and their two top receivers. Missouri has a solid QB in Brady Cook but Luther Burden is probably the best WR in the country that nobody knows about. Guy has got some wiggle and I love watching him play. Let’s keep that Vanderbilt defense stinking to our favor and take this TT O.

SMU TT O 37.5 -120 Win 1u (DraftKings) (730PM ESPNU)

Think this is a get right spot for SMU. Charlotte is nothing great and SMU had a tough loss against TCU last week. Last time SMU took a tough loss, it was against Oklahoma, they took it out on their next opponent. It was a 69 to 0 performance against Prairie View A&M, #nice. Now Charlotte isnt that lowly but still it's a similar spot. Think they have to get some momentum before going into AAC play so I’ll take the Pony Express to score some points here.

Washington TT O 42.5 -110 Win .5u (DraftKings) (10PM Pac-12 Network)

I’ll ride this wagon until the wheels fall off. Don’t love the spot with Oregon next week and there are some question marks at QB for Arizona. Potentially meaning that they might not need as many points to get this win. However, I’m a ride or die for my guy Michael Penix Jr. and these Huskies. This is a smaller play so not as confident as the other two TTs but I'll still have it on the card.

Let’s Cover some Bar Tabs today!

-Nick Leone