Dick’s Picks: Friday Night Lights

Photo by Danielle Meyer

Friday Night Lights

Last Week 0-2 -1.74 (Purdue +7.5 (L), Purdue TT O 27.5 (L))

Friday Record 2-2 -.24u

Last week's blog didn’t get my blog in time to Brian but I had Purdue +7.5 and their TT O 23.5. Had a chance to backdoor cover but the Purdue running back brain basically turned off and he forgot he was playing football. Wisconsin scored on the following possession and put it out of reach. Those are the swings that take you from potentially 2-0 or 1-1 to an 0-2 night. But we just keep chugging.

Louisville vs NC State (Louisville -3.5, O/U 55.5 7PM ESPN)

Funny enough that last week was Jeff Brohm’s old team on Friday night lights and unfortunately, they were unable to play that “spoilermaker” role. Maybe since Wisconsin did not have a number next to their name it made Purdue say “F it”, we don’t need to win this game.

The Louisville offense has been great this year. A lot of stats say they are a top 5 to 10 offense in the country. Insane to say out loud, but Jeff Brohm is a great offensive mind and the trio of QB Aidan O’Connell, WR Jamari Thrash, and RB Jawhar Jordan have been great. But, and this is a theme with a lot of teams early in the season, who have they done it against? They did it against Georgia Tech, Murray State, Indiana & BC. They probably should have lost to Georgia Tech and they struggled against Indiana. Indiana almost just lost to Akron and the Zips are a basement dweller in college football. The one thing that has put everything over the top was their performance against BC. Louisville thumped them and the numbers were gaudy. But again, is BC any good? I think people see that FSU score and think they are a little feisty but BC is #notgreat. They lost to Northern Illinois, who then lost to an FCS team at home, as well as getting thumped by Nebraska and BC almost to Holy Cross. Now Holy Cross is a good FCS team but still, that shouldn't be the case, thanks for the intel Bennett. So I think this Louisville team is a tad overvalued coming into this game.

As for the NC State side, the public perception of them is not great. They struggled against a lowly Virginia team that might win a game or two this year on the road last week on national TV and lost 45 to 24 to Notre Dame two weeks prior. The ND game was a 7 point game going into the 4th quarter and then the game just got out of hand. The talent difference that Notre Dame possessed really showed through. I wish there were some stats to back my NC State angle here but there really is not much they have done well. Brennan Armstrong and this offense really haven’t put it together and the defense has been good, not great. You take away the Notre Dame game and the numbers are obviously better but they played UConn, VMI & Virginia so of course they should look good. So I am willing to stand in front of this Louisville offensive train that has been so great early in the season and take my chances with the 3.5 with the “Pack” against this potentially inflated Louisville team. Always makes me feel good When Pres, Rico, and Big Cat are all on the other side in unison with Louisville -3. Now there is a chance that Louisville is for real but they will have to show it to me tonight against this NC State team on the road. The 3-3-5 defense is always something different to prepare for, add in it’s a short week, and it's a home game under the lights for NC State and some signs point towards the “Pack”. Louisville hasn’t played a true road game yet, Ga Tech and Indiana were at neutral sites, and I think NC State should definitely have a better performance at home than last week on the road. It also was weirdly a Brennan Armstrong revenge game for Virginia, who transferred out of Virginia in conference, so I wasn’t shocked with the result. So I’ll take Dave Doeren and his boys to have his defense step up, have the offense make some plays when needed, and muck it up to keep it within the number or get an outright W. And they are wearing their “Ghost” uniform tonight which is in the thumbnail. Love me a nice black jersey for some Friday night lights.

Bet 1: NC State +3.5 -110 Win 1u (BetRivers) (Play down to 3)

PAC 12 After Dark Friday Night Lights

Utah vs Oregon State (Oregon State -4.5, O/U 44.5 9PM FS1)

I would be remiss not to talk about the Utah and Oregon State game. Two top 25 teams on a Friday night is usually a treat.

Utah's defense has been fabulous and the offense has been dreadful. That in part is due to QB Cam Rising not being there. Their backup QBs have not been anything great and have really hindered the offense. Oregon State is coming off that Wazzu loss and I think they know if they want to get some momentum going into the gauntlet, that is the PAC 12, they need a good performance here. I won’t give a pick because Cam Rising’s status won't be announced till 30 minutes before the game most likely. He’s a huge difference to this team. He may be a little rusty to start but he should be able to get it going against an okay Oregon State defense that is not that great against the pass and that was shown against Wazzu last week. The motivational angle is definitely on Oregon State’s side and playing in Corvallis is an underrated tough spot to play at. I will be on the sidelines with this one because Whittingham knows how much of a competitive advantage it is to keep your QB news away from your opponent. The fact that the line has moved up 4.5 makes me think that people are leaning on him not playing but I’ll stay away.

Friday Night Lights Picks 2-2 -2.4u (1-0 +1u Totals, 1-1 -.09u TTs, 0-1 -1.15u Spreads)

Cumulative CFB Record 52-60-4 -5.54u

-Nick Leone