Dick’s Picks: Week 3 Primer
Now I mentioned it last week that the slate wasn’t great but this slate truly isn’t great. But generally when the slate isn’t expected to be good it usually produces some great moments. It’s college football. Literally anything can happen. NIU was a 30 point favorite who won outright last week! See ya later golden domers. The lone ranked matchup of the week is BC and Mizzou. For Real?!? But it's still a full slate of college football and we would die for this in the dog days of summer. It’s started to cool down here in Maryland so it's starting to feel like fall which makes it all that much better.
Bet Record for Big Games (6-3 +2.76u, 5-1 O/U +3.88u, 1-1 MLs EV, 0-1 Spread -1.12u)
Last Week 2-2 -.24u
Texas/Michigan U 45 (W)
Iowa State/Iowa O 34.5 (W)
NC State +10 (L)
Colorado/Nebraska O 55.5 (L)
#4 Bama vs Wisconsin (Bama -15.5 O/U 50.5, 12PM FOX, BIG NOON Kickoff)
Preview
The Kalen Deboer era started out with an absolute thrashing against Western Kentucky but they had some struggles last week against USF. The final score of 42 to 16 was not indicative of how close the game really was. Alabama pulled away late and for the most part the game was a rock fight. It was 14 to 13 going into the 4th quarter and it wasn’t flukey. Alabama only outgained USF by 90 yards, were 5/13 on third down and USF actually had more first downs than them. A little alarming for a team that has its eye set on contending for a SEC championship.
Now the Wisconsin badgers this year, uh not so great. Bringing in Tyler Van Dyke hasn’t necessarily been the QB they thought they were getting. They have scored only 56 points in two games against South Dakota & Western Michigan. Now, Wisconsin isn't Ohio State but Ohio State just put up 56 on Western Michigan last week, essentially through 3 quarters. The offense is in this weird limbo with OC Phil Loungo wanting to run the air raid but this roster more so being equipped for the more traditional power running Wisconsin offense. They have run the ball well early in the season but the passing game has lagged behind. Now part of that may be QB Tyler Van Dyke learning a new offense and trying to get it together but it is a little concerning the completion percentage, PBUs and INTs that he has had early in the season.
Handicap
A part of this handicap is not only the opponent of Bama this week but also who they play next. Drumroll please…… It's Georgia. Now they do have a bye week in between but there might be a little overlook to account for when looking at the game plan for Alabama for this week. You don’t want to risk that bye week being the time to recover from injuries and not being full steam ahead.
With Alabama QB Jalen Milroe, and I talked about this ad nauseam last year, if you can control the explosive play against this Alabama offense you were generally in pretty good shape. And early on the dependence on the explosive play seems to be back. Kalen Deboer is one of the best coaches in the country and to think that he would bring the Washington offense that worked with Michael Penix and force that on Jalen Milroe would be a little inane.
The one thing that is little concerning with this Alabama offense is their offensive line. Their rush metrics are sub 100 (Line yards and stuff rate) and front 7 havoc, essentially TFLs & Sacks allowed is 87th in the country after playing Western Kentucky, my beloved Hilltoppers, & USF. Those stats should make you throw up in your mouth if your cousin is Roll Tide Willie. They allowed 3 sacks to a USF defense that was putrid at times last year.
So with this offense it has been pretty much boom or bust. To put in perspective they are the most explosive offense in the country but 80th in efficiency to date. So if you can keep the big play in front of you and challenge this offensive line there is a clear path to success.
Wisconsin’s defensive metrics have not been great early on this season. And the offenses they have played have not been great either. So I don’t think you can’t totally disregard the numbers but you still have to be wary of them. I do think the one thing that is a little concerning is facing a MAC and FCS offensive line and you aren’t creating any disruptive plays. Their defensive line havoc numbers were not great last year so maybe that is just what this defensive line is.
The one thing that is different compared to last year and I think this will improve and will definitely be stressed this week is keeping everything in front of them. To date they are 73rd & 112th defending explosiveness and pass explosiveness respectively. Last year were top 20 in containing explosive plays and 11th in containing explosive passing plays last year. They do have a ton of returning production in the secondary, most notably Ricardo Hallman who got some Freshman All American consideration and had an 84 coverage grade on PFF. So I do think this secondary will be up to the test. They will have their lapses but I believe Luke Fickell and staff will make a concerted effort to make Milroe beat them with the short and intermediate pass. I also think that although the Wisconsin defensive line hasn’t been great this year, the Alabama offensive line has struggled with 2 groups of 5 teams so they may be able to create some pressure.
Now on the offensive side of the ball I think Wisconsin will struggle to throw the ball on this Alabama defense. The pass play stats are very good early in the season against two teams that are more than capable from the Group of 5 level in USF & Western Kentucky. Alabama did lose 2 Corners to the NFL and Safety Caleb Downs, but they brought in some solid talent in the Transfer portal that I think will match up well against these Wisconsin receivers. Where I do think this Wisconsin offense has an advantage should be in the trenches. Wisconsin grades out well with their offensive line while Alabama has had some mediocre defensive line grades. Middle of the pack with stuff rate and line yards and 83rd with front seven havoc. So if there is a way for this Wisconsin offense that at times has struggled it will probably be through the ground.
Mentioned it above, but part of this handicap is about Alabama hosting Georgia next week. I think it might be one of those games that since they struggled with USF they will want to have a good first half and then just go vanilla in the second half to not put anything more on tape and keep Jalen Milroe healthy with this struggling offensive line. Meaning there may be some running in the second half if Bama is up.
And on the other side Luke Fickel has to be aware of their offensive struggles and that they are at a mismatch athletically compared to Alabama. Meaning the game plan should be play good defense and run the football to reduce the numbers possessions this Alabama team gets. Camp Randall is a hard place to play so if they can get the crowd into this early I think they can muck this game up. The more possessions you give to this Alabama offense, odds are they are going to break some big plays and the athleticism will be on full display.
I would lean Wisconsin just because it is over 2 touchdowns and I think Bama will be vanilla in the second half if they are up. But I do wonder if Tyler Van Dyke struggling to throw the ball will allow Wisconsin to put up enough points to make this game competitive. So maybe take Alabama first half if you can get a nice number.
I will be on the under here though. Another Big 10 noon kickoff under. Almost becoming a regularity. I think Alabama really has no reason to run it up on Wisconsin here and Wisconsin has to muck this game up in order for them to have a chance. If they can get the crowd into it you never know what can happen with Jalen Milroe and this offensive line that has struggled so far. I also think with Wisconsin stepping up in class with this offense will struggle. So even if you get 35 out of Alabama here you may only get 10 to 14 points from Wisconsin.
Bet: Bama/Wisco U 51.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM) Good to 49
#24 Boston College vs #6 Mizzou (Mizzou -16.5 O/U 54, 1245PM SECN)
Preview
I think if you told everybody three weeks ago that this would be the lone ranked game on the board people would have laughed at you, but here we are. Boston College has risen up the polls after their impressive win against Florida State. It will be interesting to see what that Florida State materializes as the year goes on. But at the moment they are what the boys like to say basura caliente. Or for my massholes out there HOT GAHHHHBAGE. Bill O’Brien seems to have brought new life to this program and he really instilled confidence in his team that they could out and beat FSU, and they did. They went out, ran the ball well and played great defense. Great game plan for when you are an underdog and I expect that they will follow suit against Mizzou this week.
Mizzou coming into this year has gotten some hype and it is evident with them being #6 in the polls this week. The offense should be great. They return arguably the best receiver in college in Luther Burden, added two very good G5 running backs in the portal in Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll and return their QB Brady Cook who had a very solid year last year throwing for 3300+ yards with 21 TDs and 6 Ints. They have weapons all over the place. The defense is expected to take a step back with how much talent was lost in the back end and in the interior defensive but as of now they haven’t skipped a beat. Now thrashing Murray State and Buffalo is expected but they haven’t allowed a single point. This will be the first test for this defense to see if they can be as productive as last year’s unit.
Handicap
I think the first thing that sticks out when you look at this line is how in the hell is #24 BC 17 point dogs after they went into FSU and won handedly and then dump trucked Duquesne last week in a potential look ahead spot. So the natural reaction is to say oh it's too many points. However when BC garners 80% of the bets and the line is moving against them they become a public dog. And usually you don’t want to be on the side of the public dog.
First thing, and I think people have noticed, is the Florida State trenches are nowhere near as good as they were last year. And DJ U has been atrocious. So I think people may be overvaluing that win. I don’t want to discredit going into Doak Campbell on Labor Day weekend and winning but there was just something off about that game. Now BC faces a more than competent QB in Brady Cook with some very talented skill position players and an experienced SEC offensive line with some potential NFL talent. Not to say that FSU doesn’t have talent but they haven’t performed near the level they should have and the Missouri O-Line early in the season has taken care of business against inferior foes. This will also be a step up for Mizzou's offensive line in competition but they should be up for the challenge. And another thing to consider. The BC defense last year was not great. 6.3 YPP (118th in the country), 188 Rush Yards per game (121st in the country) and they ranked 113th in Defense YPP & 105 in explosiveness. So while their numbers have been great this year, its two data points and not necessarily good data points, you definitely have to take that with a grain of salt. Bill O’Brien does bring in a whole new staff so you expect them to get better but to expect them to perform every week like they did against Florida State would be a little silly.
And the second thing. This BC offense is really one dimensional. Thomas Castellanos while being a great athlete is not a great passer. He struggled last year as a passer and his biggest weapon was his legs. Now being under Bill O’Brien he should improve and should be better but nothing from week 1 made me think that he made a drastic improvement as a passer. This year Missouri has been very good against the run, again two data points and not good ones, but last year they were very good against the run as well. It does give me some pause because they lost two of their top D-linemen but they added depth in the transfer portal this season that have been contributors early on. The one thing that I would be scared about with this Missouri defense is the secondary. They lost 2 corners to the NFL, 1 of whom was a 2nd Team AA, but I dont think BC and this offense has the weapons to exploit that especially with Castellanos throwing the ball.
I think they are going to try to play their ugly game like they did against FSU and employ that same underdog mentality. Another thing too, and by no means am I defending FSU and their terrible performance. But there wasn’t any tape on this BC offense to gameplan. I would assume they had a general idea of what to expect but now there is something on tape for the Missouri staff to game plan against. For those reasons I will be on Mizzou laying the points. Got the worst of the number, it’s the game you play when you bet games early and there has been some buy back and it now hovers around 14.5. It is a lot of points but I’m not going to overreact to one win against a potentially 8-4, 7-5 ACC team that may have been overhyped this season. It's also good that there is no overlook for this Mizzou team. They have Vanderbilt next week so no crazy SEC lookahead spot so they focus on BC and take care of business. I understand the hesitation to take the points with a team that wants to shorten the game but I think there is a serious talent deficit that will be displayed here. If Mizzou can stop the run here it will be a long day for this BC offense.
I will also be on the under here. I think BC wants to play a slow ugly game similar to how they played FSU. However in this case I think Mizzou has the defense to stop this BC offense. This is going to be tough with a big favorite and the under here but . I think it is tough to lose both here, but if this BC defense plays well again and their offensive line has another impressive performance this one will be tight in Columbia.
Bet 1: Mizzou -16.5 -115 Win 1u (BetMGM)
Bet 2: BC/Mizzou U 54 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM)
Betting against Buttchin O’Brien here. Always a dangerous proposition
Tulane vs #16 Oklahoma (Oklahoma -13.5 O/U 50, 330PM ESPN)
Preview
Welcome to the big leagues Oklahoma. You are now playing man’s football in the SEC and not that chicken shit football in the Big 12. I touched on it last week but it was a less than impressive 51 to 3 win over Temple and that rolled over into a really ugly game with Houston who the week prior got stomped by a good G5 team in UNLV. The one thing that was a concern for this team coming into the year was their offensive line. 5 brand new starters moving into the SEC is a recipe for disaster. And their numbers have been less than stellar. Generating a push and protecting the QB have not been great early on and it concerns me as they make a huge step up in competition with their absolutely brutal schedule in the SEC where they play Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama, Mizzou and LSU. BRUTAL. The SEC really wanted to greet Oklahoma with some southern hospitality with that schedule. So if their line doesn’t get this figured out they may be in for a long season in Norman.
It's a new era in Tulane. HC Willy Fritz moves onto Houston and they replace him with Jon Sumrall, former head coach of Troy. During his time at Troy he was great, 23-4 in two years so it was definitely an A+ hire for Tulane. Sumrall was also the former DC at Tulane so it makes for a great match down in the Big Easy. The roster does lose some serious talent from last year. Most notably QB Michael Pratt who was awesome but they also lose some serious studs on defense as well. They do bring back the DT Patrick Jenkins who was awesome but lost 3 members of a very good secondary. They did hit the portal hard for some help and you hope with John Sumrall’s defensive prowess that this defense can be as good as last year’s defense. The offensive side had some uncertainty with who would start at QB. Many thought it would be Ty Thompson, a former 4 star who didn’t work out at Oregon, but freshman Darian Mensah has emerged as the starter through the first two weeks. They do have a great RB in Makhi Hughes who last year as a freshman ran for over 1k yards.
Tulane played K State tough last week. They were up at the half and then ended up losing but actually outgained K State by 70 yards. So nothing to look down on, just need to limit the turnovers and even with the turnovers they almost still won the game.
Handicap
I Touched on it above but there is something wrong with this Oklahoma offense. You look at the early season numbers and it's concerning. They are terrible when they get behind the chains which has been often and they can’t seem to move the ball efficiently. It's all boom or bust through the air.
Now Oklahoma’s defense has held up their end of the bargain. If their defense didn’t play as well as they did last week they may lose to Houston as a 28 point favorite. YIKES. This defensive line is very solid, they have LB Danny Stutsman who is an All American candidate at and a rock in S Bill Bowman Jr in the secondary. Playmakers at all three levels and they are going to need them if they want to go anywhere with how their offense is playing at the moment.
Their defense matches up well vs Tulane. Tulane has been a very explosive offense early in the season with QB Darian Mensah, WR Mario Williams and RB Makhi Hughes. But this Oklahoma secondary and front match up well. Their defensive front looks like an SEC front with DT Damonic Williams from TCU along with some 4 and 5 star prospects. So I do think they will pressure this Tulane offensive line that did not perform all that well against Kansas State. Oklahoma has defended the explosive play well early in this season but it does bring me pause because this defense struggled mightily with defending explosives last year specifically with the pass. But it's another year under Venables with all their production back in the secondary, so you expect some improvement there.
In the end I don't necessarily believe that the Oklahoma offense will get it going here. This game potentially does line up for a good opportunity for this offense to turn the corner with Tulane losing some of their top end talent from last year and giving up 34 to Kansas State last week. The difference in the game was Tulane’s struggle up front and their inability to score points when they crossed the 40. They had 9 trips and averaged 2.2 yards per trip. I don’t know if Oklahoma can get into scoring position consistently enough and then if they get there convert those scoring opportunities against this Tulane defense. I also believe this Oklahoma defensive front should have some success creating pressure on Darian Mensah which in turn should limit the explosive play.
I like the under here. I do understand the argument for taking the over here though. This could be a buy low spot for this Oklahoma offense against a Tulane defense that struggled last week against Kansas State. And on the other side, this Oklahoma secondary was not all that great with pass explosiveness and so far this season Tulane has created some explosiveness in the pass game.
However, I do have confidence in Venables and more importantly in this defensive line to provide pressure to make Darian Mensah uncomfortable and believe the offensive woes continue for Jackson Arnold and this Oklahoma offense.
If I had to choose a side I would take Tulane. I think it's a lot to ask this Oklahoma team in this current form to cover two touchdowns, especially after Tulane probably should have beat K State. Oklahoma is a tough place to play but I think they have a shot. May throw them in the round robin.
Bet: Tulane/Oklahoma U 47 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)
If they are wearing the baby blues tomorrow. Book it Tulane ML. Some of the cleanest uni’s in the game.
#1 Georgia vs Kentucky (Georgia -23.5 O/U 45.5, 730PM ABC)
Preview
Last time we saw these DAWGs they were whooping that ass in the superdome against Dabo and Clemson. Maybe you should go into the transfer portal Dabo, it’s just a suggestion. Just like how your mom strongly suggests not having 30 beers on a saturday but you doing it anyway, you piss yourself and then have to reevaluate your life.
This Georgia team started out a little slow vs Clemson but they asserted themselves in the second half and showed their championship pedigree. I was on the Carson Beck train last year after the Auburn game and I am going to be on it again. Him and Jaxson Dart are my two Heisman picks and I am feeling pretty good. I know Quinn Ewers had a great game in the big house against Michigan, I think as the year goes along that performance will look less and less impressive, but Carson Beck has a ton of opportunities for some Heisman moments. Their schedule is insane. They have to travel to Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss and then host Tennessee. So plenty of opportunities for him to have his Heisman moment(s). But I think this team is on a mission after last year ended. There is talent all over the place and with the 12 team playoff even if they lose one of those games or go undefeated and lose in the SEC championship they are in.
Now this Kentucky team. Last week was BAD. South Carolina the week before almost lost to Old Dominion, who might be one of the worst teams in the Fun Belt this year. And they got manhandled by South Carolina. 183 yards on 63 plays amassing to 2.9 yards per play, That’s bad folks, 6 of 17 throwing the football for 44 YARDS and sacked 5 times. If you wanted to put a clinic on what not to do throwing the ball this may be it. Not the greatest introduction to SEC football for Georgia transfer QB Brock Vandagriff.
Handicap
It’s very hard to not get swept up in what happened last week to this Kentucky team. There was a lot of optimism coming into this season with QB Brock Vandagriff that this offense could be much more consistent than last year since QB Devin Leary had some shoulder injuries. But week 2 was not great. And who do you have this week? Um, the Georgia Bulldogs. So not all that great for building up that confidence. They were better at running the ball which has been a staple of this Kentucky team. And I expect them to lean on that in this game as well. If you can’t complete passes and protect against South Carolina, I don’t expect that to change against Georgia. Now South Carolina does have a STUD Freshman DE in Dylan Stewart, go watch him beat a triple team of Kentucky last week it was wild, but it is not the talent that this Georgia defensive line has. Time will tell and maybe this South Carolina defensive line ends up being elite but being at the level of Georgia trenches is next level stuff. I have some serious concerns about this Kentucky offense. Maybe they were looking ahead to Georgia and they will be much improved from last week but I find that hard to believe.
Now this Kentucky defense had some high hopes coming into the year. I gave the big man Deone Walker a shoutout last week in the blog and they return a bunch on a defense that was very solid last year. The defensive performance wasn’t all that terrible last week. They gave up 5 yards per play but eventually when your team doesn’t score any points eventually you are going to break. The defensive front was very good, had an over 30% stuff rate and had 3 sacks but there were some moments where they struggled with the pass. I expect this defense to be fine, this Georgia offense should be a good test for them but I think they can be competitive in the trenches which is very important against Georgia. This Georgia offensive line is elite but Kentucky has some dudes that will be playing on Sunday too. A bigger question may be if their secondary can improve their play from last week.
Now a huge part of this handicap to me and I touched on it in my handicap of the Alabama Wisconsin game, is who Georgia is playing in two weeks after their bye. Alabama! Wowwww (Owen Wilson voice). So there may be a lookahead factor and the past matchups are very important to consider. Other than last year’s absolute ass kicking by Georgia with a final of 51 to 13 and the recent games have been ugly. These are scores from the 4 years prior to last year:
2022: 16 to 6 Georgia
2021: 30 to 13 Georgia
2020:14 to 3 Georgia
2019: 21 to 0 Georgia
These games have all been rock fights. And I expect this one to be similar. We should get an inspired Kentucky team this weekend and I think their game plan should match the scores above. Play some solid defense and try to run the ball the best you can. I don’t think they are magically going to learn how to get better passing against this Georgia defense but maybe they have some success running the ball. Last year if there was a weakness against this Georgia defense it was their rush defense.
And for this Georgia team how much do they open up the playbook? They have Bama in two weeks and I don't think they care how much they win this game by. I think they can have an aggressive first half and then pack it in the second half and be alright. Admittedly Georgia may be able to put up 45 by themselves but I think if they are up they will take their foot off the pedal and take it easy in the second half. They want everybody healthy for a trip to Tuscaloosa to avenge last year’s loss in the SEC Championship game.
As for the side, I would probably lean Georgia as this dips closer to 21. I don’t have much optimism for this Kentucky offense, I think maybe they get 10 here and Georgia is in the 28 to 31 range. I do think Georgia doesn’t care about the style points here so I do agree with sharp money on Kentucky pushing this under 24.
Bet: Georgia/Kentucky U 45.5 -115 Win 1u (BetMGM)
Also side note, another kid got arrested for reckless driving from Georgia. Just send them to the Atlanta speedway and let them go as fast as they want. It’s insane, it doesn't make any sense.
Best of the Rest
To the overs club… This always ends well
App State vs ECU (ECU +1.5 O/U 59.5, 4PM ESPNU)
Last week App State got absolutely run over by Clemson. So maybe Clemson isn’t dead? App State gave up 66 to Clemson last week. Their defense had some questions coming into this year even with all the returning production but Clemson just put it on them. Now on the offensive side this team should be very good led by QB Joey Aguilar and will probably have one of the best passing attacks in the Group of 5.
I do like this ECU team especially if they could figure out how to play offense. They were just terrible last year offensively. It hasn’t been all that great this year admittedly but it has definitely improved. The ECU defense last year was great against the run but had its moments struggling defending the pass. So I do think App State has a bounce back effort here and think we could get a decent effort from this ECU offense.This is a super public under and it has gone up. Meaning there is definitely some sharp action behind the move. I don’t love it as much over 59 but was able to snag up a 58.5. This could end up being a gross game if the ECU defense is up to snuff and the offense can’t get it going but I'll play it for smaller and root for some points in a nice instate rivalry. May throw ECU in a round robin as well. This line is a little stinky.
Bet: App State/ECU O 58.5 -110 Win .5u (CZR)
UAB vs ArKANSAS (ArKANSAS -23 O/U 61.5, 415PM SECN)
When I say this UAB team is bad, that is an understatement. They got smoked by ULM led by QB General Booty last week. Elite name. If you can’t get any tail with a name like General Booty in college you are fumbling the bag. There was definitely a little revenge with ULM’s staff being part of the staff prior to Trent Dildo being hired at UAB but nonetheless they thumped them. ArKANSAS comes off a tough loss to Oklahoma State in a game that if they would have scored in the second half they would have won that game. Oklahoma State is not very good btw. I will probably be fading them as a favorite in big 12 play.
ArKANSAS’s SEC opener is next week against Auburn which is a big deal but I think they want to take out their frustration on a bad UAB defense. It does scare me a little that they may take their foot off the pedal here but even if they are just running the ball they can still score against this UAB team. Still like it but it will be a smaller play.
Bet: ArKANSAS TT O 41.5 -115 Win .5u (ESPN Bet)
#5 Ole Miss vs Wake Forest (Ole Miss -21.5 O/U 64.5, 630PM CW)
First off what a get for the CW. Usually they have some absolute dogshit ACC game, and somehow you get the best offense in the country on your airwaves. I’ll keep this short and sweet. Until Ole Miss gets to SEC play nobody is going to stop them. It’s just silly the numbers they have put up. In the past two weeks they have combined scores of 128 to 3. Now I understand that it is against MTSU & Furman but you still have to put up those numbers and this offense is only building on last year. Wake just lost to Virginia who is not all that good so we should get a good effort from them hosting Ole Miss but the talent mismatch is too much. The total has gone up a little but the spread has dropped down a little meaning i didn’t get the best of this team total number but I think anything under 45 is in play here. I think Lane has an agenda to get Jaxson Dart the Heisman and won’t really take his foot of the gas here. No overlook here as well. They play Georgia Southern next week who they may actually score 100 on, so this is all aboard the Lane Train for me. Choo choo!
Bet: Ole Miss TT O 43.5 -115 Win 1u (ESPN Bet)
This is the man that you want to be betting a team total over on
Kent State vs #7 Tennessee (Tennessee -49 O/U 62.5, 745PM SECN)
I was dead wrong last week about these Volunteers. It’s going to be a little counterintuitive to the pick I have here, but I was most impressed by their defense. James Pearce Jr is a certified dog and that front is nasty. But I also know that Josh Heupel is an offensive wizard and every week Nico is going to get better. It does scare me a little that this Tennessee team has the Oklahoma team on deck but I think they can sleep walk to 60 here. They just put up 51 vs NC State and Kent State is bad bad. They just lost to St Francis (PA) by 17 as a 17 point favorite at home. This is going to look like two different sports being played here if Tennessee gives an ounce of care. The overlook to Oklahoma gives me a little pause so I will play this for smaller but give me Tennessee to score all the points.
Bet: Tennessee TT O 55.5 -120 Win .5u (DK)
And now betting on teams that people are done with… But not my dumbass
Memphis vs FSU (FSU -6.5 O/U 54, 12PM ESPN)
FSU has gotten absolutely roasted since losing their first two games. And for the most part it is deserved. Something has just looked off with this team. They had a bye week and Norvell faces his old team so I do think this is a little personal. If he loses this game watch out. I will be staying away from the side. I do think under 7 FSU is probably the play as crazy as that sounds. They still do have talent and are now facing a G5 team. Now Memphis does have one of the better G5 quarterbacks in Seth Heningan and they have some very good weapons. I think they know this is their chance to make a statement about them making the playoff and should be full speed ahead. I think they can have some success scoring on this defense and I am buying about as low as you can on DJ U. With two weeks to prepare I think Norvell should have something ready for them. I did bet this over earlier in the week. I do think 54 is where I would stop buying here. This may be really ugly. Hopefully not as bad as Tennessee +10 last week. Missed that cover by 41 points. #Sharp
Bet: Memphis/FSU O 52 -115 Win .5u (BetRivers)
I am betting on a white guy to fix DJ U that thought cornrows were cool. Yep this is a loser.
#9 Oregon vs Oregon State (Oregon -16.5 O/U 49.5, 330PM FOX)
Oregon has not lived up to any expectations of being a true national champion contender early on this season. They probably should have lost to Boise last week. Ashton Jeanty is THAT DUDE though. But after torching bettors two weeks in a row I think I’m going to back them here. It’s one of those things that this line has only moved 3 points since lookahead lines were posted so I don't think the books have completely given up on Oregon just yet. In comparison FSU was -16.5 vs Memphis in the lookahead line preseason. And I am going to be one of these idiots that join in that. I wasn’t that high on Oregon State coming into the year just because they lost their coach who was awesome and a ton of talent as well. The guy made DJ U look good for god’s sake. Oregon State does profile well though here as a big dog because they love to run the ball and bleed the clock. So I am wary of that but I just think if Oregon doesn’t show up now then they have a long way to go to get ready for Ohio State in a month. Oregon State is that public dog similar to BC even though I think this is the public more so fading Oregon after two subpar performances. But give me the duckies here. I could look like an absolute moron if these two picks fall short.
Bet: Oregon -16.5 -106 Win .5u (BetRivers)
And last but not least. Drumroll please….. A really ugly under
#12 Utah vs Utah State (Utah -18 O/U 43.5, 430PM CBS Sports)
Simple analysis. Cam Rising is out, Zach Wison’s younger brother is in and Utah State didn’t score last week. Under 43.5. Missed the best of the number, don't care.
Bet: Utah/Utah State U 43.5 -110 Win 1u (FD)
Cheers,
Follow me on Twitter & Action Network @ Dicks_Picks_42
-Nick Leonne
