Dick’s Picks: PAC 12 Friday Night Lights
Photo by Kevin Clark from The Seattle Times
#5 Oregon vs #3 Washington, Oregon -9.5, O/U 66 (8PM ABC)
It’s the last PAC 12 championship game that we will probably have, but it doesn’t mean that the PAC 12 won’t be going out with a bang.
The PAC 12 didn’t cannibalize themselves throughout the year, like they did in years past with the CFP, and this has turned into a de facto play-in game for the CFP for which both teams are more than deserving of being in.
One more so based on their resume and not necessarily margin of victory, the Washington Huskies, and one based on how dominant they have been against a maybe less than impressive schedule and this win would put them over the top in Oregon.
It is great that this game is basically a stand alone on Friday night (it's competing with C-USA Championship, Liberty vs New Mexico State, WOOOF), so all eyes will be on this one for a potential CFP birth and maybe we get that Heisman moment out of one these two QBs.
You look at how these two teams come into this game and they are in completely opposite forms. Oregon has been absolutely thumping everybody. Only 1 win has been under double digits and that one was a backdoor cover by Caleb Williams and USC three weeks ago. Other than that they have been pretty dominant and they ended the regular season with a very impressive performance against a sneaky good Oregon State team. Many people expected that Oregon State would impose their identity and slow the game down, try to limit possessions and ground and pound. But that effort was totally stifled with Oregon State only having 51 yards on the ground. Instead, Oregon controlled possession, was very efficient with the pass and run and dominated the game. A stark contrast compared to what Washington did the week before to Oregon State in Corvallis but I don't think it is something to read too much into.
One, Corvallis is a really tough place to play and throw in the weather which definitely limited the passing attack of Washington to its full potential and you get that ugly of a game. You think with that weather it would have favored Oregon State and their rushing attack but it wasn’t their best performance. Oregon State had their chances but struggled with turnovers and in the end Washington made enough plays to hold onto a tight victory in a game that Vegas thought the Beavs would get the Huskies. So I think to make use of that sports transitive property of how Oregon beat Oregon State by 24 and Washington won by 2 means this game should be a blowout is a little disservice to the handicap here but it does play a little part.
I think the two big parts of this handicap to me are how both teams have played down the stretch and the result of the first game. If you look at how the first game played out,
Oregon outgained Washington by 100+ yards
Oregon an opportunity to put the game on ice with the Bo Nix 4th down at midfield that they didn’t convert
Then they had an opportunity to tie the game but their kicker missed a field goal.
And the cherry on top, Washington went 2 for 3 on 4th down and Oregon went 0 for 3 on 4th down.
So just from a statistical perspective Washington didn’t necessarily deserve to win that game.
And then you have to look at how Washington has played down the stretch. After the Oregon win they almost lost to Arizona State, and were then close the rest of the way out with all their opponents, no victory being more than 10 points. Now the Utah game probably shouldn’t have been as close because of the idiot dropping the pick 6 at the goal line but they haven’t been as dominant as they were early in the season. I think part of that is the injuries this team has had as well as when you aren’t as balanced it allows teams to gameplan for you, and when you struggle to run the ball teams can always make the game closer since you can’t shorten the game late in the 4th quarter. So I don’t think you discount them winning these ugly games but against better competition you wonder if those lackluster performances put them out of games altogether which may be here with Oregon.
At this point it's either Oregon or LSU for the best offense in the country. Tremendous balance in the passing game and running game. And Washington has struggled against the run throughout the year. The one good thing for them is that their DT Tuli Letuligasenoa has played in the last two games and should help their run defense but I don’t know if it will be enough against this great Oregon offensive line. Their numbers are very good in the trenches.
Now this is probably the biggest thing for me with this Oregon run. Now have they been dominant, yes 100%, but who have they played? They don’t have a ranked team on their schedule other than Washington. SO, while they have been dominant, how much are these numbers on offense and defense inflated? To me the line says that Vegas believes these numbers are for real. Washington was a 3 point favorite last time they played which meant they would be a pick'em at neutral field. Well now it’s in Vegas and Oregon is a 9.5 POINT FAVORITE!
To me I get the change. Washington hasn’t been all that impressive and not winning how they should be. So again, two ways to look at it. Washington has learned to play in ugly games and can keep this within the number or they have really stepped back and Oregon shoves it down their throat here.
Admittedly I have Washington to win the PAC 12 and to make the CFP and then hedged with an Oregon to win the PAC 12 futures at plus money so I will not be playing a side here. I think they are similar to the Philadelphia eagles in their recent stretch. They probably shouldn’t be winning their recent games but they just end up making the big plays and winning games and you wonder how long they can keep it going. The Eagles face the 49ers who are favorites at the Linc and Oregon is a sizable favorite compared to the original line when they played. Not to say when will their “luck” run out but it seems like this may be where they meet their match and get outclassed and pull one out.
The sharp play here is definitely the ducks and I think Vegas is saying that with the line I’ll just be on the sidelines with this one.
Where I do have a bet for this game is on the under. The first game realistically should have gone under if Bo Nix converted that 4th down. Now there was a flurry of points in the first half but I expect this game to play more close to the chest with it meaning so much as well as the familiarity and their being so much tape out there on both teams. I think that Oregon will adopt a similar game plan as last week. They should be able to run the ball against Washington so I think they adopt a ball control plan where Bo Nix is super efficient with his targets and they have long methodical drives. For how good the offense is they aren’t terribly explosive. 75th in the country with being #2 and #1 in EPA and success rate respectively. I think Oregon knows that they can score and bleed the clock, make possessions a premium and make this efficient pass attack beat them with long drives. As well as be a bend, don't break defense. Washington hasn’t been all that great in the red zone and it makes sense. They haven’t been great at running the ball so it gets harder and harder to throw the closer you get to the endzone. This may sound a little crazy but I think if this game gets to a shootout it favors Washington and how many close games they have been in and that ability to make the big play in the end. I think Oregon wants to win with their offense dominating the clock and not allowing that to happen. I think this should be closer to the 63 to 65 range so I was happy to scoop up the 67
Bet: Oregon/Washington U 67 -108 Win 1u (DraftKings)
-Nick Leone
