Dick’s Picks: Conference Championship Primer
Photo from NBC Universal
Hello Friends,
This is for all the marbles. It's championship week. We could be some absolute mayhem if a certain combination of teams win. If Bama, Texas, FSU and Michigan win it's going to be a very interesting Sunday for the Committee.
My Huskies are a lock, it’s just their seeding at this point. Bo Nix isn’t the Heisman favorite and that Oregon team is a bunch of frauds. My Jayden Daniels 12 to 1 preseason is looking PRETTY GOOD RIGHT ABOUT NOW. Texas and the Pokes at 12, UGA/Bama and 4 and Michigan/Iowa and FSU/Louisville to cap off that night.
But here we go!
Bet Record for Big Games (40-30-2 +10.24u, O/Us 20-8-1 +10.64u, Spreads 13-12-1 -1.85u, TTs 7-9 -2.73u, ML 2-0 +2.03u)
Yesterday 1-0 +1u (Oregon/Washington U 67)
#18 Oklahoma State vs #7 Texas (Texas -15, O/U 55, 12PM ABC)
I don't know if it's a sneaky thing but you would like to think that Texas wanted Oklahoma so they could avenge their loss for the committee. If they were able to win that rematch they would have an even better argument to get into the CFP especially if they were to thump them.
But instead, they got this Oklahoma State team that had to go to double OT vs a pretty bad BYU team to ensure they got in the conference championship. It would be such a chef’s kiss if Oklahoma State was able to stun Texas here and ruin their CFP chances in their last season in the Big 12. Unlikely, but still would be so fitting and such a big FU to Texas and Oklahoma beating both of them in their final season in the Big 12.
But I would never put anything against the mullet himself.
When Oklahoma State has the Ball
I wrote about Oklahoma State earlier in the year in the Bedlam matchup but this offense to me is very simple. Alan Bowman has played very well but this offense will ride RB Ollie Gordon till his legs fall off. Since being inserted in the lineup,minus the hideous UCF team performance, he hasn’t had a game less than 125 yards. The kid is a horse and is a real problem when he gets into the open field. If he gets moving he is really hard to bring down and having him as a threat allows for Alan Bowman to be efficient and effective. The big thing here is if you can contain Ollie Gordon and those explosive runs then the rest of the offense struggles. Their run blocking numbers are not all that great and it's more Ollie Gordon being great at creating missed tackles and using his vision to hit the big play. And unlike those Texas teams that weren’t all that physical in the past, this front 7 is mean. They rank top 10 in pretty much every important rushing metric for a defense and don’t allow the big run either. They aren’t as good against the pass but most struggle with explosive pass plays. You look at when they played Kansas and Alabama the yardage that they gave up were with big plays through the pass. So for me if they can contain Ollie Gordon, they are setting themselves up for known passing situations where they are very solid. Especially since I don't think they necessarily have to commit more than some other teams to stop the run with how great their front is. Throw in the OK State line having their struggles and it may be a long day for the pokes when they have the ball.
When Texas has the ball
Now the Texas offensive numbers are not all that impressive. Some of that has to be attributed when Quinn Ewers did not play and Malik Murphy had his learning moments as a freshman. And this offense has their moments with Ewers where they haven’t been all that impressive too. They did play well against Texas Tech in the last game but prior to that they hadn’t broken 30 against TCU & Iowa State. But this Oklahoma State defense is not all that great. They are horrendous against the big play. Big play against the pass, the run, in standard downs, in passing downs it doesn’t matter this team will give it up. Now can Texas exploit that? Without RB Jonathan Brooks hurts, but RB CJ Baxter has a great burst and there is a real deep ball threat in Xavier Worthy if Quinn Ewers can complete those deep shots. Texas rushing explosive numbers are very good but passing numbers are not so great. Makes sense with Ewers missing time and maybe him being a little rusty with a shoulder injury but I think with last week’s performance they should be able to build some momentum and be able to hit those big plays to exploit the weakness of the OK State defense.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
One of those lines that you look at with Texas being #7 and OK State being #18 and you assume that this line is probably 7 to 10 points, especially being a neutral site. You see two touchdowns and are almost taken aback. OK State has played everybody tough so no way this is more than 14. But once you start digging into the numbers you realize why the line is what it is and has only gone up. Texas should be able to stop what OK State wants to do on offense in the run game with Ollie Gordon and make this game dependent on Alan Bowman which I dont think Mike Gundy wholeheartedly wants. And on offense Texas should have some success with the big play against this spotty Ok State defense. I really do like Mike Gundy. I think he is a great college football coach that always gets the best out of his teams but don’t know if he has the horses here. Also, Texas doesn’t lose anything by running it up here. If they put it on OK State here in a stand alone game it can only help their chances to make the CFP. Wish I got this number before it ballooned over 14 but right now 15 is good for me.
As for the total, I will stay away. I would lean to the under. I wanted Texas TT O 34.5 but right now it is 35.5 which is a little scary. I do think Oklahoma State struggles here but if Texas scores a bunch here and OK State gets 14 that total of 55.5 or so gets dicey. Especially if Texas is able to get to 40+ which they are more than capable of. DraftKings does have Alt TT Os so I will probably hit one of those with juice and just risk the 1u
Bet 1: Texas -14.5 -112 Win 1u (FanDuel) (Up to 16)
Bet 2: Texas TT O 34.5 -135 Risk 1u (DraftKings)
How can you not root for this guy? If only the talent on his team matched the majesticness of the mullet. Such luscious locks
#1 Georgia vs #8 Alabama (Georgia -5.5, O/U 54.5, 4PM CBS)
This game might have the biggest implications on the CFP. If Georgia wins they hold serve and deserve to be #1. If they lose, oh nelly does it get interesting for that committee on Sunday. Especially if FSU and Texas win big. But oh boy did Bama almost blow it last week. 4th and goal from the 31 and they convert. It was 10 years after the kick 6 so maybe the football gods were looking down on Saban on that Thanksgiving weekend giving him a gift. But advance and survive and now they have their own destiny in front of them. Win and you are in. Lose and go home.
When Georgia has the ball
I’ve been beating the Carson Beck drum since the Florida game and he hasn’t disappointed. This offense goes through him and his stable of weapons. When Bowers wasn’t there he answered all questions about whether or not this offense would succeed or not. There are some questions with Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers coming into this game with injuries which are huge but you would have to assume that both of those guys will gut it out. Any Brock Bowers is a good Brock Bowers. This offense has slowly but surely made their way to be a top 5 offense. The highlight of this offense is the passing game. The run game is still solid just nowhere near how good this passing game has been. It has gotten better as their big boys have returned from injury but Carson’s Beck decision making and accuracy have been great. But this Alabama defense is no slouch. Probably one of the best secondaries in the country and that shows in the metrics. Top 10 in pass defense. Where to attack this defense is through the run. Run metrics are not all that impressive so Georgia may have to get it done through the ground in order to win this game. Hasn’t been their strong suit but I think that is what they will have to adapt to if they want to get this victory. It’s also worth noting that this Alabama defense is susceptible to the big play but this Georgia offense is not predicated on that. They are very methodical and effective at keeping themselves ahead of the chains but maybe that is something they try to explore as well in this game. But this will be a strength of strength matchup and a lot of pro matchups all over the place.
When Alabama has the ball
This offense at this point is simple. Establish the run and let Jalen Milroe throw the ball a country mile since that is about all he can do. Now, he is incredible at throwing the deep ball but anything in the short to intermediate range he struggles. But kudos to Tommy Rees for playing to his strengths and utilizing the weapons that he has. The biggest thing here is that Georgia doesn’t let up the big pass and is great at defending the pass. So this game will be run on the ground here. The Alabama numbers are solid on the ground. It's not your typical power running Alabama squad but the numbers are still good. And that is where this Georgia team can be had. Their rushing metrics are actually very suspect. Which is surprising, but to continue to replace how many ELITE defensive lineman they had eventually was going to stop. But the one thing here for me is that Kirby is fully aware of what this offense is trying to do with the deep pass with Milroe. So I think they make a committed effort to stop the run and put Milroe in passing situations where he has to convert those intermediate areas and make him uncomfortable. But if Alabama is able to establish the run here it could be a problem for Georgia.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
Going to split two public plays here. I’ll be swimming with the fishes with one and hoping that I’m “painting houses” with the other. Can see the other side to both bets though.
First, and this one I am more confident about is the under. A ton of public sentiment for the over and I get it. 80+ percent of the bets are on the over. I think people see how good this Georgia offense has been and have seen what Jalen Milroe and this Alabama offense has done over the past couple months. They have got it rolling. And there are some stats to back the over in the SEC championship game. It is hitting close at over 70%. And it makes sense you get elite athletes on turf and they just go, go, go. But to me the big thing is that this is a strength on strength matchup for both teams. So both offenses should struggle and it may take a big play here or there to really decide the game. And to me it seems like the success of this game will be predicated on the ground so that only makes the under that more advantageous with the clock continually running. But the other side of the coin is with how good these coaches are they will probably be able to hone in on those weaknesses and exploit them. So this game will probably start out slow and I have to hope it doesn’t explode into a shootout. But I will take my chances here with 55.5.
As for the side, this is when I ride with the public on the Georgia train. I grabbed it at 4.5 which i like because the 5 to 6 range scares me. Looking at the strengths and weaknesses it appears that Alabama should be able to exploit the weakness of Georgia and their run D. However I think Kirby and his crew will have a great game plan with knowing Milroe’s strengths and weaknesses and force him to beat them with the short to medium throw. I think if Milroe can do that Kirby will just tip his cap to this Alabama team. And I am more confident that Carson Beck makes better decisions and is able to lead more successful drives than Milroe with his weapons. I don’t think it will be easy but once they find a rhythm in the second or third quarter I think they will start to turn it on. But I completely understand wanting to back Bama with Saban being so elite in SEC Championship games and you don’t get rich betting against Saban either.
Bet 1: Georgia/Alabama U 55.5 -115 Win 1u (FanDuel) (Down to 54.5)
Bet 2: Georgia -4.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM) (Up to 6)
Doesn’t get much better than watching these two on championship weekend. The GOAT and potentially the up and coming GOAT if Georgia keeps up their dominance.
#14 Louisville vs # 4 FSU (FSU -2.5, O/U 47.5, 8PM ABC)
Such a disappointment that Jordan Travis got injured the way he did vs North Alabama in a meaningless game for their season. Really ruins a special season that FSU was having and potentially ruins their chance as a legit contender for the CFP and National Championship. The whole argument that without Travis this team doesn’t deserve to be in the CFP is kind of trash and discounts everything this team has done. If the argument is to put the “best” 4 teams in, let the friends in the desert determine the playoff then. Results of games should matter and it shouldn’t just be an opinion that this team is better than the other.
But we should not discount the Cardinals and the turnaround that Jeff Brohm has had in year 1 because it has been great. A lot of people in the preseason pointed out that there was a path for this Louisville team with how easy this schedule was. They played a super easy schedule. That Notre Dame win was more attributed to the spot that ND was in, they beat NC State playing with their eventual backup and they lost to Pitt, WOOOOF, and Kentucky who the week prior had lost to South Carolina who stinks. So I think the 14th ranking is a little fraudulent and this isn’t as good of a 10 and 2 team compared to teams with similar records or maybe even worse records.
When Louisville has the ball
This Louisville team early in the year was a very explosive offense. But as the year has gone on the explosiveness has dwindled. They have the weapons but I think as they got through conference play people saw the tape and restricted those plays. Now they still went 10 and 2 so the offense is decent but it looks like the way to attack Florida State is with the explosive play. They are great up front, creating havoc plays but struggle with the explosive play. So if Lousiville can exploit the big play here they can have some success. I am a little scared here that Lousiville struggles to run the ball here and puts it on Jack Plummer’s back. Now Jack Plummer is a plenty good quarterback but he has had his moments with turnovers. 11 ints and 7 fumbles this year. So good for 1.5 turnovers per game this year. A little scary with this havoc minded defense and knowing that they might have to have a great game in order for this team to get to where they want to go. I am confident though that Jeff Brohm is aware of the uncertainty of the quarterback with Florida State and should be very calculated when he takes chances and limits those opportunities for turnovers with Jack Plummer.
When Florida State has the ball
Really hard to evaluate this offense with only having one data point with Tate Rodemaker and he may not even play on Saturday. And that data point wasn’t all that pretty. They struggled in all aspects of the game but the one thing that is scary for me are the rush metrics. This Florida State line came into the year with a lot of hype for how many total starts as a unit they returned. Believed it was almost 200 starts combined with all their offensive lineman which speaks to how much depth and upperclassmen talent they have. But their stuff rate and line yard numbers are sub 125 which is terrifying in this game. You would like to think in a big game with a backup QB that you can rely on your run game and play defense but I don't know if they can do that. Louisville also grades out well against the run with their stuff rate and line yards being 8th and 4th respectively. So can Tate Rodemaker, or their third string freshman, and these weapons have some success through the air. They didn’t do that well against Florida last week and this Lousiville pass defense is solid. Top 20 in success rate and PPA but struggling with explosiveness. However, I don't know if Tate Rodemaker or the backup is the one to exploit that in this matchup. So there may be some serious uphill sledding for this FSU offense.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
Again, I really wish we had Jordan Travis here but some of the numbers here are puzzling for Florida State. Especially their numbers on the ground which shocked me. Now Louisville did lose last week but it was because of the turnovers since they outgained Kentucky by more than +100 yards. Looking at this I really wanted to get on Florida State based on the fact that this ML/Spread was only going to dip and I think this Florida State defense can put the team on their back. But even with Travis the numbers are not all that impressive and then throw in Rodemaker or a third string QB with a big game and I don't know if I can get behind them.
Now for the total, it has come crashing down. I wish I got it earlier in the week especially after seeing these numbers but I still think the under is the play. It is very public and it makes sense with the performance that FSU had last week in the swamp and the Florida defense isn’t all that great. And the forecast is supposed to be gross in Charlotte as well. I think this Louisville defense should have some success and I think this FSU defense comes out inspired knowing in part that their chance to make the playoff is on their backs. Now the one thing that scares me about the under in this game is the turnovers. Touched on it with Plummer and his looseness with the football but this Louisville team is also top 20 in havoc created. So whatever backup QB is playing, there is the potential for the running game to struggle which may create opportunities for this Louisville team to get after the QB and force him into tough situations. In the end though I think this game is a rockfight. Wish i had gotten it in the 50+ range but it's the game you play.
Bet: Louisville/FSU U 47.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM) (Play down to 45)
#2 Michigan vs #16 Iowa (Michigan -22, O/U 35, 8PM FOX)
I don’t really know if any championship game should ever involve a 20 pt underdog but that is what has happened with the Big 10 in the past couple years. The Big 10 East has been so far superior to the west that whoever wins the east is the de facto Big 10 Champion. And that was evident this year. You could probably argue that 5 of the 7 teams from the east would either be a favorite or a pick'em at Indianapolis this weekend. But that's geography for you. Iowa continues to win games in quite possibly the ugliest fashion. It's the worst offense in the country combined with the best special teams and a top 5 defense. And I don't think the script is going to change here. If you want to go on a date with your lady tonight you aren’t going to miss anything special with this game and Louisville/FSU.
When Iowa has the ball
This is going to be short and sweet. I don’t know if I even need to write about this. This offense is the worst in the country and will be lucky if they gain over 100 yards in this game against this Michigan defense. The goal here is to not to turn the ball over and to not create negative plays that will put their all world punter Tory Taylor in bad spots so they can play the field position game. This offense is so putrid that for this game DraftKings has listed their team total in the first half as 2.5 and the second half as .5 . So if you want something that can explode in your face at any moment, bet that. I might do it myself honestly.
When Michigan has the ball
The biggest part of the handicap here is whether these Iowa defensive numbers are for real. The big 10 west is just pathetic offensively so any sort of competent defense and your numbers should be very good. When you play the likes of Rutgers, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin with a backup, Illinois and Nebraska your numbers should look great. Now they are the currently the #1 defense in the country per PPA & #2 per success rate. Now do I think they are really there? No. They got absolutely thumped by an inept Penn State offense in week 2 in the torrential downpour at Happy Valley this year. So realistically if they played a decent set of offenses they would probably be in the 20s in my opinion, maybe even lower. Now it's all relative but where they do struggle is power success rate, stuff rate and creating havoc in the front. Meaning that this defensive line is not the strongest part of this defense. So I think Michigan should have some success running the ball with Corum and Edwards and this could be a very boring game. This pass defense grades out very well, now they haven’t faced anybody like JJ McCarthy as much as that pains me to say that, but the QBs they have faced are dreadful. I wouldn’t be shocked if the score mirrors something that we say in Happy Valley of 31 to 0 with Michigan just dominating the ball and possession and just watching Iowa punt every time they have the ball.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
I’m going to be honest, I don't know if this Iowa team scores. If Michigan doesn’t turn the ball over in their own territory and they are able to get some first downs if they are pinned deep this offense will struggle to get into Michigan territory. So the biggest handicap here is how much does Michigan score and do they keep their football on the pedal. 2 years ago in the Big 10 championship game against Iowa they continued to keep their foot on the pedal but it came out that they were trying to honor Tate Myre, who tragically passed away in the Oxford shootings who wore #42. They won that game 42 to 3 and put the total over 44.5. So they honored him by scoring 42 points. I don’t think we get that here though just with the way this game will be played. I think Michigan can basically just run the ball here, with Iowa’s pass defense being pretty solid, bleed the clock and I think Iowa goes away pretty silently. With the total being 35 and the spread being 22 it may be one of those weird cases where the favorite covers and the total goes under which is usually not the case. I will be the crazy person here and take under 35 and hope harbaugh doesn’t run it up and if the spread gets down to 21 I will probably be on Michigan as well.
I think I may try to walk the tightrope here and have a little fun with this game. I will be on the under for more but I will take the Michigan TT O. It currently sits at 27.5 I said it above but I wouldn't be shocked if this game ends 31 to 0, 31 to 3 or 35 to 0. Will be for smaller but I think I will try to hit the sweet spot here with an TT O while also betting the under. Almost serves as a hedge. The only way this game gets over is if Michigan gets it going in my opinion.
Bet 1: Iowa/Michigan U 35.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM)
Bet 2: Michigan -10.5 -113 Win 1u (BetRivers) (Terrible line would probably take it at 13.5 which is widely at other books)
Bet 3: Michigan TT O 27.5 -120 Win .5u (DraftKings)
Bet 4: Iowa U 0.5 TD Scored -120 Win .5u (DraftKings)
Get familiar with this guy Tory Taylor. Best punter in the country and he may be punting quite a bit. His is pretty much like watching punter porn.
Not sending out the full card because everything is one except a teaser.
6Pt Teaser -110 Win 1u
Louisville +7
Louisville/FSU U 52.5
Let’s cover some bar tabs today!
-Nick Leone
