Dick’s Picks: National Championship

Photo from College Football Playoff

Hello Friends,

Bet Record for Big Games (46-33-2 +10.5u, O/Us 23-8-1 +13.64u, Spreads 14-15-1 -3.08u, TTs 8-10 -2.59u, ML 2-0 +2.03u, Prop 1-0 +.5u)

Bowl Season Record 35-32 +4.9u

CFP Record 10-7 +2.84u

CFB Regular Season Record 141-129-6 +9.31u

CFP National Championship: Washington vs Michigan (Michigan -4.5, O/U 56.5, 730 ESPN)

And it all comes down to this! Michigan finally gets over the hump after a dramatic comeback where Harbaugh puts his nuts on the table and goes for it on 4th down in his own territory with 3 minutes left and had all his timeouts. If that fails we are in a totally different discussion here but they had a great play call to get Blake Corum the ball and moved the ball down the field to hit a wide open Roman Wilson to tie the game up. If they hit the extra point earlier in the game it forces Alabama to drive the field and kick a field goal but that was not the case, I was on the under, so that sucked but I feel terrible for all those people that had Bama + the points. Special teams is just as much a part of a game as offense and defense and that was on full display. Michigan almost lost the game on special teams while Alabama almost won it with their special teams. And now the monkey is off Jim Harbaugh and Michigan’s back. Only to face… Drumroll please.

The Washington Huskies, their future Big 10 brethren, who just continue to be counted out and thrive in that underdog role. They were the better team all night and deserved to win the game. The end of the game was a disaster with their running back going down which gave Texas an extra 20 to 30 seconds and the extra 15 yards from kick catch interference penalty on the punt. But in typical Washington fashion, they found a way to win. Michael Penix Jr was spectacular and the Washington offense was humming. Anything they wanted through the air they got. Now the running game was nothing that great but you have to tip your cap to Washington for winning that game and punching their ticket into the National Championship.

So we have some new blood in the national championship which is great. No SEC team for the first time in quite some time, believe it was when Ohio State played Oregon in 2015. I know the argument could be made that if Georgia was actually in this might be a little different and I tend to agree, but they didn’t win their game and the committee made their decision. But we get a Michigan vs Washington National Championship with such a clash in playing styles that should make this a great one and add in that it might be Harbaugh’s last game leading the wolverines it adds all the more drama to this one.

When Michigan has the Ball

Michigan over the past couple years has established this offensive identity as the bullies on the block. Have a great offensive line with a stable of running backs, a game manager at QB with solid weapons on the outside. And this year is no different and the numbers match that identity. Sorry JJ McCarthy stans but he is nothing more than a game manager this year. They aren’t going to beat you with the big play, they keep themselves ahead of the chains and don’t beat themselves with turnovers. It was surprising to me that the passing game grades out a little better than the rush game. But I think that is a little misleading with the past couple games that JJ McCarthy has played since they started playing their better competition. Prior to the Rose Bowl here were his stats in the last stretch of the season.

Vs State Penn ⅞ 60 Yds

Vs Maryland 12/23 141 Yards 1 INT

Vs Ohio State 17/21 182 Yards 1 TD

Vs Iowa 22/30 147 Yards

Cumulative: 58/82 530 YDs 1TD & 1INT (4 GAMES PEOPLE)

The stats are not pretty and almost alarming for him at some point being a “heisman” candidate. Those to me are not different from the stats of an Iowa QB for 4 games. The stats signal to me, and I think that was confirmed with his play at the Rose Bowl that he had some kind of lingering injury and that the time off helped him. Now his stat line against Alabama was very solid, it ain’t sniffing Penix’s stat line from the Sugar Bowl, but in the biggest moment he showed up and guided his team to the game tying score. Michigan doesn’t need JJ to be superman here. Their defense has been tremendous all year. He isn’t asked to win the game, he has to be efficient, not turn the ball over and keep his team in a position to win the game and not lose the football game. And against Washington I think they will follow that same gameplan. His stat line of 17/27 for 221 and 3TDs might not be flashy but it got the job done vs a very good Alabama defense and I think his stat line will probably look similar against Washington +/- a couple touchdowns.

The one thing that Washington has struggled with all year, and it has gotten better since they got some key players back from injuries, is defending the run. The numbers are just putrid. Now having their DT Tuli Letuligasenoa has helped but this team doesn’t have the run stoppers like other teams and it shows in their numbers. 131st in Stuff Rate, 132nd in Line Yards and 130th in Rush Play EPA. So it's abysmal to say the least. And like the other teams in the CFP that like to run the ball this will be no different with Michigan. And to me I don't know how many times Michigan throws the ball here. I think this is the Blake Corum show waiting to happen. Where Washington does do better is defending the pass and limiting explosiveness altogether. But, Michigan could care less. If Michigan could get 5 yards every play and go 75 yards doing that every drive they would love it. Now not to that extreme but I think they can do it here. Washington was very opportunistic in the Rose Bowl and have been in the back end by generating turnovers and big plays. But I think Michigan can neutralize that. If JJ doesn’t have to throw much and it's all Blake Corum running up the middle it limits those opportunities for those defensive backs to get involved. So I do think it is uphill sledding for Washington in this game. However, Washington is fully aware of what Michigan wants to do. And the follow up is do they stuff the box and make JJ beat them. I think that's where it gets interesting here. If Washington is committing bodies to the box and daring Michigan to throw the ball will Michigan go to the air with JJ. So that to me is the wrinkle here. Washington knows that Michigan wants to bludgeon them with the run so can they possibly manipulate their game plan and make JJ beat them. Regardless of the plan this Michigan offense should have some success here.

Feed the big fella the rock and good things happen

When Washington has the Ball

Oh my Huskies. What a win against the AARP member Bo Nix to get them into the playoff. I have been a big Huskies supporter this year so I will try to keep my bias out of this. I had their Win total over, to win the PAC 12 and to make the playoff. I wish I had taken the National Championship preseason number. That would have been great to have at this point. But if you haven't watched the huskies and that was your first introduction of seeing them against Texas you got the full arsenal. Michael Penix throwing absolute darts, all his WRs dominating their respective matchups, sprinkle in a little TE love with Jack Westover and Dillon Johnson being the batter ram when needed. Just a masterclass of how to throw the football. A little bit shaky towards the end of the game with their inability to run out the clock but they somehow held on. The concern here is the Dillon Johnson injury. Since they have really started featuring him he has been great. He had his coming out party vs USC running for 256 and stamped their victory against Oregon with 152 yards. But he had a meh performance against Texas. 21 carries for 49 yards and 2 TDs. So not all that effective on the ground. But, this was against an elite Texas rush defense.

I had my doubts about how legit this Michigan defense was since their numbers were so great against not great competition but they showed up in the trenches vs Alabama. Just a dominant performance on both sides of the ball. So I think Washington again struggles here with the run and this is where it may get interesting. Can Michigan defend the pass? Numbers say yes but I don't think they have faced anybody in the realm of the Washington passing offense. Alabama is a one trick pony with throwing the deep ball with Jalen Milroe and Kyle McCord was so underwhelming for the amount of talent he has. So while Michigan grades out vs the pass 4th in Passing EPA they do struggle a little bit with explosiveness and to me when you have played the schedule they have and those explosive numbers don't match the other numbers it's a little concerning. They rank 53rd in guarding pass explosiveness. Now Washington's passing game explosiveness has not been great this year but this was the first game in quite some time that they had their full trio of WRs healthy and boy did they put on a show with the deep pass. Texas didn’t have the dudes in the back end to guard all three of these elite WRs and I don't know if Michigan does either. To put in perspective Rome Odunze had 1400+, Ja’Lynn Polk had 1k+ and Jalen Mcmillan was injured most of the year but last year 1k+ himself last year. There is no doubt that Michigan matches up better. Both Mike Sainstril and Will Johnson are very solid but I don’t know if there is a third or 4th guy that is equivalent to Polk.

Now the one thing with any great passing game is can you get after the QB. And while Texas has great front 7 havoc their sack rate was around 6%, 66th in the country and that was evident against Penix. Penix wasn’t sacked once, part of that was him avoiding sacks but the line held up well. However, Michigan ranks 6th with 9.48% sack rate which was definitely showcased against Alabama. But Washington has the 2nd best sack rate in the country at 2.06%! Just incredible. So to me this is the determining factor for Michigan’s success on defense. If Michigan can bring Penix down they probably win this game going away. If they aren’t able to get to Penix it only puts more strain on their DBs and makes it that much harder to guard those WRs. I think this is an interesting chess match between the coaches. How will DC Jesse Minter scheme up some blitzes to confuse the O-Line and Penix, confusing Penix is really hard the guy has played so much football. And on the other end, how does OC Ryan Grubb and HC DeBoer combat this strength and put their O-Line and Penix in opportunities to avoid those sacks/pressure situations. To me that's the biggest pendulum in the game. Michigan’s pass rush vs Michael Penix and this Washington O-Line. I lean towards Penix and co figuring it out without how much football they have seen and played together.

Don’t let this man get hot

Handicap/Betting Outlook

I think what I struggled with most last game was handicapping the Michigan defensive numbers. When you don’t play anybody and you are very good, your underlying metrics are going to be outstanding and stand above everybody else. So from a power ranking perspective Michigan is going to be elite and there are going to be very few weaknesses since there have been limited opportunities for them to be truly challenged. And the Alabama game confirmed to me that they are in the upper echelon in the country in terms of trench play. I know Alabama is a little down but to be as dominant as Michigan was in the trenches against an SEC team was impressive. I understand it's a little down year for the SEC but that has been the gold standard of how we measure offensive and defensive lines for the past 20 years.

The one bet I am the most confident in is the over. I think Washington really struggles to stop Michigan from scoring here. The biggest thing is how quickly or slowly Michigan scores. If Michigan has long TD drives then this probably struggles to get over the counter. The Michigan rush game is nowhere near as explosive as Texas but I still think this Michigan offense will get chunk runs. Which makes their drives not as long especially with how slow they play. And I think to combat that Washington is going to load the box and force JJ McCarthy to throw which may open up this game. And on the other side, Washington will be well aware that Michigan wants to reduce the overall number of possessions in this game to make Washington play a perfect game with their struggles with running the ball and how good Michigan is in the trenches. So I think Washington comes out with guns blazing here. Deboer is usually pretty aggressive with 4th downs but I think he might be more aggressive here with the nature of the Michigan offense. Meaning they continue on drives or are giving Michigan short fields. If this game is up and down Washington has a chance. If this game is slow they are dead in the water with their inability to stop the run. So I think Washington is pedal to the medal here which in turn may get Michigan to run the ball less and increase the pace. I think at least one team is in the 30s here, maybe even two so I like the over.

Now on the opposite side I get betting the under. If you believe in Michigan and them controlling the pace then this is going to be a long slow death for Washington. Limiting possessions and making sure Washington essentially has to play a perfect game. Add in that if Michigan is up at half they are just going to try to make the game shorter. I also think an interesting part of this is how Michigan defends this Washington offense. The Washington offense hasn’t been as great in the red zone and it makes sense. The field is shrunk so it is easier to defend the pass. So if Michigan lets Washington get their yards and is forcing them to kick field goals then this definitely leans towards the under. So I am aware of all that. I just think in the end Washington wants to increase the possessions and Michigan should have no problem scoring.

As for the side, I will start this by saying that I have a +750 future on Washington so I will probably not double down on Washington. However, I would lean Washington if I had no money on it. Admittedly I do have a blind spot for this team and they thrive in this dog spot. It does seem to be a very public play but the talking heads on networks that don’t know anything are taking Michigan. I think the sharps will eventually start hitting this so if you want the Huskies I would wait. I think it may get to 6 before kick.

But I'll give my three things that I think will decide the handicap. Some of them are unknown and it will require some leaps of faith in some respect. Wherever your answers go is probably who you should bet on.

First, are the Michigan defensive backs good enough to guard these Washington receivers? The Michigan DBs grade out really well but they have yet to face the full package of a great QB and great WRs. So are those numbers something that you can apply in this situation. It's really hard to say. Again I lean the Washington receivers with three legit pros as well with Penix’s ability to distribute the ball. But I understand taking the latter.

Second, Can the Michigan pass rush get to Penix? Its strength on strength in that respect. Washington's offensive line has the second lowest sack rate in the country and Michigan has the 6th highest sack rate in the country. I think the experience of Penix is the deciding factor which makes me lean towards Washington winning this battle. However, Jesse Minter is a tremendous coordinator and their interior d line is great and that is the weaker part of the Wahsington O-Line compared to their tackles.

Third, Will Washington “jump” Michigan early? If Washington doesn’t get out to a hot start and pressure/challenge this Michigan offense this game in my mind becomes slower, with less possessions which favors Michigan. If you like the Michigan defense stifles the Washington offense then this correlates. I think Washington wants to come out and start hot. If this isn't close at halftime I think Michigan just suffocates them in the second half by running the ball and only makes it harder for Washington with limited possessions. Now again I do lean towards Washington starting hot. They have done in both of their last two games which they have been dogs. And one bet I did make was Washington +3 in the first half along with their 1H TT O 12.5. Think they come out guns blazing and keep this one close going into half.

As for other game bets that I like. I think taking Washington O 30.5 is nice at plus money. I think they can get to 30 here so having plus money is nice. And I also like the Michigan prop for their final score to land between 31 to 40. I think Michigan should get theirs but I don't foresee them getting over 40. Again both are in correlation with the over just other ways to bet it and potentially hedge if one team doesn’t hold up their end of the bargain.

Bet 1: Michigan/Washington O 56.5 -108 Win 1u (FanDuel)

Bet 2: Washington 1H +3 -115 Win 1u (Caesars)

Bet 3: Washington 1H TT O 12.5 -130 Risk 1u (Draftkings)

Bet 4: Washington TT O 30.5 +170 (Boosted +255) .5u (DraftKings)

Bet 5: Michigan to Score 31 to 40 Points +200 .5u (DraftKings)

Some Player Props I’ll be on to give some people other bets to have on the game

Michigan Props

Blake Corum 2 TDs +135 .5u (DraftKings) & O 100.5 Rush YDs -115 Win .5u (DraftKings)

Touched on it above but I think Michigan is going to try and impose their will against this Washington defensive front. And it's their best way to win this game. I was hoping to parlay his Anytime TD with an adjusted yardage but the books are smart enough to not let that fly without paying some serious juice. Blake Corum should be a battering ram here. And with the offense not being so explosive I think there will be plenty of chances for him in the red zone to cash in. The guy is a touchdown machine and that should follow suit here.

JJ McCarthy O 21.5 Rush YDs -115 Win .5u (DraftKings)

Last game he cashed his over prop in rushing yards which I had. The one thing to note here is that college football counts sacks as rushing yards for props. So definitely something to keep in mind. Leaning on the Blake Corum logic of how they want to lean on the run and after seeing that JJ McCarthy is healthy Rose Bowl I think OC Sherrane Moore will utilize him more in the running game. He had a nice little scamper against Alabama that put us over the total. What does scare me here is that if he gets sacked once we probably need a couple runs but they will be putting JJ in many situations to expose him. Might be a little risky if they don’t want to run him, but in a high leverage game and potentially JJs last game I think he will utilize his legs to help the team win.

Washington Props

Michael Penix O 291.5 Passing YDS -115 Win .5u (DraftKings)

I think regardless of how this game plays out, whether it is Michigan getting a lead and draining the clock or Washington starting out hot, Washington is going to throw the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan adopts the philosophy of don’t beat us over the top, keep everything in front of us and when we get to the red zone then we will crack down and make you kick field goals and not score touchdowns. And if they have to kick more field goals, odds are Washington will be down in the game, meaning they throw more, meaning more yards. On the opposite side, if Washington gets out to a hot start it means that Washington has established the passing game and they won’t stop throwing until later in the game. Think anything under 295 to 300 is good here.

TE Jack Westover O 25.5 Receiving YDS -120 Win .5u (DraftKings) & ATTD +320 Win 1u (FanDuel)

With all the hype about stopping the big 3 of Odunze, McMillan & Polk I think there will be some opportunities for Westover to get some love from Penix in the passing game. Think we probably need 2 or possibly 3 catches here to get this over. He had a great game against Texas and with the expected emphasis on those 3 guys that there will be some soft spots in the defense for him to find and opportunities for Penix to target him. Think it's also worth a little sprinkle on him to score a TD. Think up to 30 is good for yards.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk ATTD +220 .5u (FanDuel) & WR Jalen McMillan ATTD +170 .5u (FanDuel)

I think that DB Will Johnson should do a decent job against Rome Odunze and that will be one of the main focuses for this Michigan defense. I don't know if Michigan has enough depth to stop all three of these guys. So I’ll take the plus odds on both these guys. Bet them last game and they both hit. I like Polk’s value a little bit more if you were to take one. Guy has 9 touchdowns in 13 games. Think the odds are a little long for him and McMillan is now healthy and dangerous as ever.

WR Germie Bernard ATTD +500 .2u (Caesars)

This is definitely my shot in the dark here. Yes, that is the guy's real name, it's not made up. He gets a lot of love when Washington is inside the 10 and runs the wildcat with Dillon Johnson. Washington is saying that Dillon Johnson will play after injuring himself vs Texas and if that is the case they should have a little package for him. Think there is some upside here that if Michigan is slowing down Washington in the red zone he might be used a little more to give them a spark.

K Grady Gross O 6.5 Kicking Points -112 Win .5u (FanDuel)

This is a play based on Michigan’s red zone defense and Washington’s red zone offense. I think Washington should have success moving the ball. It's just when they get in the redzone do they capitalize and score touchdowns every time they are down there? I tend to think no. So if we get a field or two from Grady Gross we are in very good shape. I lean towards Washington scoring 4 touchdowns and him hitting one field goal which gets us over. If he hits two field goals then this should be easy as well.

Last game and I’m not going out without some action!

Let’s cover some bar tabs today!

-Nick Leone