Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win the World Series: National League
Photo by Joe Camporeale from Imagn Images
It’s a mixed bag of teams in the National League playoffs.
You have the usual suspects, and some new faces as well joining the party for the first time in a bit of years.
Here’s why each of them will, or will not, win the World Series.
Milwaukee Brewers
Why They Will
The Brewers have a fantastic pitching staff, and that’s what you need to win in October.
The Brewers starters have 6 WAR while the bullpen boasts a 1.2 WAR, which are 5th and 4th in Major League Baseball, respectively.
Considering the lineups they’ll be facing this postseason, they’re going to need that pitching staff to live up to the standard they’ve set.
Why They Won’t
Haven’t we done this before with the Brewers?
They look like a great team. The pitching is solid. They’re playing good baseball.
Then October comes around and they just can’t get past that final hurdle.
I like this Brewers team a lot, but I can’t trust them to win a World Series when they’ve so often shown me they can’t get it done.
Philadelphia Phillies
Why They Will
This is the best team in baseball.
The starting pitching is excellent. The lineup is unreal.
This is just plainly a good ball club.
Why They Won’t
If there is a weak point, apart from starter Zack Wheeler being out for the year, they have an average bullpen.
Average is better than flat out bad, obviously, but that is the weak point in the Phillies roster.
If a game is close late, that could be all the difference.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why They Will
Let’s see.
They’re the defending champions. They have the best player in baseball, who is once again pitching. They have clutch hitting up and down the lineup.
Do I need to continue?
Why They Won’t
Their bullpen is terrible.
Not terrible compared to other playoff teams. Just terrible.
The Dodgers were the second worst bullpen in baseball.
Lots and lots of blown leads led to them being the three seed and having to play in the Wild Card round in the first place.
Don’t be surprised if it costs them a chance to repeat.
Chicago Cubs
Why They Will
The Cubs have some unreal bats.
Their total non pitcher bWAR is 19.5, 8 wins higher than the next closest team.
It’s a stacked lineup 1 through 9, and it’s going to be electric to watch.
Why They Won’t
You may be wondering “Brian, if their lineup is that good, how come they are are a wild card team?”
It’s because their pitching is atrocious.
The Cubs have the third worst pitching staff in baseball, starters and relievers, according to bWAR.
Outscoring your bad staff doesn’t usually lead to World Series titles.
San Diego Padres
Why They Will
Everything I just said about the Cubs pitching staff?
Reverse it, and you have the Padres.
They have a great pitching staff from top to bottom.
Historically, that’s what gets you wins in October.
Why They Won’t
Everything I said about the Cubs lineup?
Reverse it, and you have the Padres.
It’s not a terrible lineup, but it is at a -3.1 bWAR, good for 20th in the league.
That shows up in the numbers as well, as the Padres have the fewest runs scored amongst NL playoff teams.
Their pitching will help them out a ton, but those bats are going to need to wake up.
Cincinnati Reds
Why They Will
Their starters do a lot of the heavy lifting.
The Reds starting rotation is really, really good, and if they can get the Reds deep into games looking good, the bullpen can just be on mop up duty and they can get some wins.
Why They Won’t
They’re the third worst lineup in all of baseball by bWAR.
You can have the 90’s Braves on the mound, and that won’t be enough to get through four rounds of playoff baseball with a lineup this bad.
