Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win the World Series: American League
Photo by Michael Urakami from Getty Images
It’s almost time for fall baseball in America.
Not that you’d be able to tell in my neck of the woods, because it refuses to feel like fall yet.
Hate that.
Regardless, twelve teams are about to begin the sprint to the finish and end up in the Fall Classic.
Let’s get things going with the American League.
Toronto Blue Jays
Why They Will
The Jays have been one of the most consistently good teams in baseball this year.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer had their expected great seasons, and they got more help from solid seasons from Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement and Alejandro Kirk.
Not to mention, they have a certified ace in Kevin Gausman.
It takes a village, come playoff time.
Toronto has the pieces top to bottom that can make up for one of their stars having an off night.
Why They Won’t
To be honest, it’s really hard to find a flaw with this team.
They’re solid top to bottom.
But they also have an expected W-L record of 87-74 as opposed to their 93-68 record.
That’s a worse record than the Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, and Tigers, all of whom are also playoff teams.
That’s not egregiously lucky, but it is a little bit of luck.
If that reverses, they have some tough competition to get past.
Seattle Mariners
Why They Will
They’re playing their best baseball at the best time, the lineup is hitting 1 through 9, and the pitching staff that struggled early on is finally hitting their stride.
Something feels different about this Mariners team.
As it would, considering they won the AL West for the first time since 2001.
Why They Won’t
Well, they’re the Mariners. So that’s an obvious downside to start with.
But aside from that, their ace Bryan Woo, who has been by far their best starter, and likely their ace through the postseason, is dealing with a pec strain at the moment.
The rest of the rotation has been good, but if they don’t have their ace fully healthy, it can sink them.
Cleveland Guardians
Why They Will
The Mariners were red hot to end the season in the American League.
The Guardians were even hotter, and it’s because of their starting pitching, which has been absolutely elite as of late.
They are a team that nobody wants to face right now.
Why They Won’t
That elite starting pitching is having the best stretch of their careers.
That’s awesome!
It also means there is a strong possibility that starting pitching falls back to earth in a big way considering they’re going to be playing the best of the best in the American League.
A return to form for that rotation could make it a quick exit.
New York Yankees
Why They Will
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Yankees are a good baseball team!
I know! Crazy.
They have the best hitter in baseball, a good rotation, and tons and tons of power which is what you need in today’s game.
How they didn’t win the division is incredible to me, honestly. This team is very good.
Why They Won’t
I don’t trust Aaron Boone as a manager.
Hell, I’m not sure Yankees fans trust Aaron Boone as their manager.
But I also don’t trust their bullpen, which is the 5th worst in bWAR in the entire league.
That poor bullpen cost them a division title, and might cost them a World Series.
Boston Red Sox
Why They Will
In June, the Red Sox had a 17% chance to make the playoffs, according to Fangraphs.
Then by the All Star break, it was 55%.
Then 74% by mid August, and now they’re in the postseason officially.
The Sox have been excellent since July onward, and now they’re scheduled to face the Yankees in the Wild Card round, and the Blue Jays if they make the ALDS. Two teams they know very well.
They’re playing well. There’s familiarity.
It can happen!
Why They Won’t
They have to face a vaunted Yankees lineup with league average starting pitching.
That’s not a death knell, but it certainly doesn’t help things, especially considering they will likely get the Yankees best starters Max Fried and Carlos Rodon midweek.
I’m not sure this rotation can handle it.
Detroit Tigers
Why They Will
They’re going to clone Tarik Skubal and have him be their entire pitching staff.
That’ll keep them from giving up runs!
Why They Won’t
Cloning isn’t possible, and this Tigers team is the same one that blew a 14.5 game division lead on the Cleveland Guardians in September.
Sure, the postseason is a fresh slate and all that, but my goodness the Tigers are playing some horrid baseball right now, and it’s not something I think they can magically fix.
It’s not like their roster outside of Skubal is anything impressive.
