Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win the Super Bowl: AFC
Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle
Before the year began, it was a question of which AFC division would have a new winner.
After all, there has never been three years in a row where the same four times won the division.
Well, as it turned out, we got four brand new winners.
But who will head to Santa Clara in February?
Here’s why each team will, and will not.
Denver Broncos
Why They Will
Their pass rush is awesome. Their secondary is great. Their offensive line is fantastic.
This is a very good all around team, and a team that knows how to win close games.
When it gets to the nitty gritty, they can pull out wins.
Why They Won’t
I don’t trust their offense in the slightest.
Here are the times this year I have felt comfortable about Bo Nix and the Broncos offense.
Their comeback against the Giants.
Their win against the Packers.
That’s it. Just those two games.
Other than that, they have looked mostly like a mess, and a team carried by their defense.
Will that work for three straight weeks? I doubt it.
New England Patriots
Why They Will
They might have the MVP of the league at QB with Drake Maye, and they have a fantastic coach in Mike Vrabel.
Those are the two most important factors in football, and they have an A+ at both.
That’s good enough for me.
Why They Won’t
Those are the two most important factors, but they aren’t everything.
The defense is fine, the run game is inconsistent, and they played the easiest schedule in the league this year.
How will they handle it the first time they’re punched back by a contender?
Jacksonville Jaguars
Why They Will
Their quarterback is red hot, the defense lives off of turnovers, and everything’s finally starting to click for them.
There were times this year where it felt like quarterback Trevor Lawrence and head coach Liam Coen were at odds, but once they hit a groove, they were absolutely unstoppable.
Why They Won’t
I remember this same Trevor Lawrence from a few years ago.
Red hot. On fire. Made the playoffs.
Then it fell back to Earth.
I also remember the defense hitting a lull this year in the middle of the season.
They’re red hot right now.
But they’re not far away from going cold.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Why They Will
Aaron Rodgers uses his performance Sunday night to turn back the clock and get a hot streak with DK Metcalf coming back, TJ Watt ignites the defense, and the Steelers go on a 2005-2006 type of run.
Why They Won’t
Do you really think any of what I just said will happen?
I sure don’t.
I still remember their offense looking putrid against the Browns, and now they face the Texans who might have the best defense in football?
No chance.
Houston Texans
Why They Will
I don’t know if you’ve heard this before, but defense wins championships.
And the Texans defense is absolutely incredible.
No fancy schemes. No hidden designs.
They just line up and beat you.
There’s not a single offense in this postseason I trust more than I trust the Texans defense.
Why They Won’t
I unfortunately do not trust the Texans offense.
I like C.J. Stroud, but he’s been pretty average since his fantastic rookie season.
Their receivers aren’t anything spectacular. Their offensive line is fine.
If they fall short, it will be on the offense.
Buffalo Bills
Why They Will
If you believe that the QB makes the difference, the Bills should be your AFC pick.
Josh Allen is far and away the most reliable quarterback in the AFC playoffs, and James Cook has had an incredible season helping take a load off of Allen by being such a key force for the running game.
If Allen goes Superman, watch out.
Why They Won’t
Apart from Allen going Superman this year, he hasn’t really been that good.
In fact, his poor play against Philly two weeks ago is the reason the Bills have to go to Jacksonville instead of facing a weaker Steelers team.
Why should we expect Allen to somehow turn it on for four straight weeks after not seeing it for most of this year?
And he’ll need to be, because the receiving group isn’t very good, and the defense is average.
Los Angeles Chargers
Why They Will
Justin Herbert is playing excellent football, and the Chargers are very well coached.
As I said with the Patriots, that’s the two key factors.
Add in the fact that the defense is fantastic as well.
Why They Won’t
Their offensive line, because of huge injuries to both tackles, is atrocious.
Herbert can’t be as good as he can be behind a line that porous when facing pass rushes like the Broncos, or Texans, or even the Steelers.
Injuries are just dooming them again.
Same as it ever was.
