Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win the Stanley Cup: Western Conference
Photo by Nick Wosika from Imagn Images
It became very clear early on that the Western Conference was going to be controlled by three teams.
And because of the super fun NHL playoff format, it is 100% guaranteed that only one of those three teams will play in the conference finals.
Cool format!
But weird stuff happens, so let’s just wait and see!
Here is why each Western team will, or will not, win the Cup.
Colorado Avalanche
Why They Will
The Colorado Avalanche took over as the best team in the NHL points wise in November, when the season began.
The season is now over, and they were not overtaken as the best team in the NHL the entire time since November.
I mean, there’s hardly enough words to explain how good this team truly is.
Just turn on the TV and watch them, and you’ll see what pure dominance in hockey looks like.
Why They Won’t
Obligatory “the President’s Trophy Winner doesn’t win the Stanley Cup” tidbit, but there’s another interesting factor with the Avalanche.
Since Nathan Mackinnon got drafted in 2013, the Avalanche have made the playoffs 9 times.
They have made it past the second round of the playoffs once.
That’s it.
And considering they’re going to be facing either Dallas or Minnesota in round two, it’s possible they fall short again.
Despite their Cup win in 2022, they have underperformed come playoff time.
Dallas Stars
Why They Will
Defense, defense, defense.
The Stars play a defensive style of hockey and trust their goalie Jake Oettinger, who is incredible come playoff time, to make the saves that matter most.
That style, having good goal scorers like Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, and their ability to roll four forward lines, makes them very dangerous.
Why They Won’t
They’re beat up.
Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen are injured and are probably going to miss a couple of games in round one.
In most sports, that’s not horrible for a team that’s the 2 seed, as they’re likely playing the 7 seed.
But the Stars, because of the super cool NHL playoff format, are playing the Wild, who are the third best team in the West on points.
Dropping early games before Hintz and Heiskanen return could ruin their season.
Minnesota Wild
Why They Will
They’re fun!
For the first time seemingly ever, the Minnesota Wild are fun.
An excellent goaltending, a superstar goal scorer with Kirill Kaprizov, and a superstar defenseman in Quinn Hughes.
And you know for a fact that they’ll have a crowd pushing them in the State of Hockey.
Why They Won’t
They have a bit of a goalie problem.
Filip Gustavsson is the starter, and he’s a really good one.
Jesper Wallstedt is the backup, and he’s also really good!
The problem is, Wallstedt down the stretch has been excellent, and Gustavsson has struggled.
So Wallstedt should get the net in game one, correct?
But Wallstedt has never played a playoff game before, wheras Gustavsson has, and has played very well.
I get that this sounds like a weird issue to have, but playing flip flop on goalies could mean neither finds a rhythm.
And since you’re playing Dallas in round 1 and likely Colorado in round 2, you NEED to have a guy in rhythm.
Vegas Golden Knights
Why They Will
Vegas still had a chance at making the playoffs thanks to overtime and shootout losses, but they did clinch more losses than wins for the first time in their history before firing head coach Bruce Cassidy and then hiring John Tortorella.
Since Tortorella took over, Vegas has been 7-0-1 and won the Pacific Division.
This is a very good team playing their absolute best hockey.
Watch out.
Why They Won’t
Terrible goaltending.
Their best goalie has a -1 saves above expected.
That’s not ideal!
Edmonton Oilers
Why They Will
They have some of the best players in the world, including the absolute best in the world in Connor McDavid.
McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have shown for two years in a row now that they can drag the Oilers to the Cup Finals.
Why They Won’t
And for two years in a row now, the goaltending has shown that they refuse to let the Oilers win the Cup.
To mitigate it, the Oilers traded Stuart Skinner to Pittsburgh for Tristan Jarry this year, and he was even worse!
It will probably be Connor Ingram in net, but who cares who it is?
It’s not good enough.
Oh, and Draisaitl is hurt.
That throws a wrench into things.
Anaheim Ducks
Why They Will
Cutter Gauthier had a breakout season, and they’re good at home.
That’s cool!
Why They Won’t
They had a -16 goal differential, they went 8-0 in shootouts, which don’t exist in the playoffs, and they give up a ton of scoring chances.
Not to mention, they’re playing their worst hockey down the stretch.
Have fun dealing with Vegas and Edmonton, let alone the Central Division monsters.
Utah Mammoth
Why They Will
They’re just solid all around.
I know that doesn’t sound like a raving endorsement, but in the Stanley Cup Playoffs where depth is everything, it’s a huge deal!
They have six players with 20+ goals, led by Dylan Guenther with 40, they have Cup experienced defenseman like Mikhail Sergachev, MacKenzie Weegar, and Nate Schmidt, and a true number one goalie in Karel Vejmelka who had 8.5 goals saved above expected this year.
What’s not to like?
Why They Won’t
Depth is the most important factor in the playoffs, but you need star power.
The Mammoth don’t really have it yet.
Clayton Keller is really good, but not the guy who can take over the game like a McDavid, Draisaitl, Kaprizov, or Mackinnon.
Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley can get there but they’re only 22 and 21 respectfully, so they aren’t there yet.
The future is excellent in Salt Lake City, but they aren’t there just yet.
Los Angeles Kings
Why They Will
Do you remember the 2013 NFL Playoffs?
The Baltimore Ravens dragged their way into the playoffs due to a weak division despite not looking really good all year, and then went nuclear in the postseason in Ray Lewis’ last run at winning another title.
Well, the Kings aren’t very good, made the playoffs because of a weak division, and team captain Anze Kopitar is retiring at the end of this year and wants one last run at a title.
Plus, they’re both black and purple teams.
So sure. It can happen again.
Why They Won’t
That won’t happen again.
Their goaltending stinks, they can’t score, and they have a -20 goal differential but dragged their way into the playoffs because of 20 (!!!) overtime/shootout losses, which means an extra 20 points even though they lost.
They had two more regulation wins this year than overtime/shootout losses.
They’re the poster child for why the NHL needs to switch to the IIHF or PWHL points system.
But hey. Kopitar gets at a bare minimum four more games in his Hall of Fame career.
That’s cool.
