Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win the Stanley Cup: Western Conference
Photo by David Zalubowski from the Associated Press
The Western Conference of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
It means staying up until 1 A.M. on weeknights because there’s overtime in Los Angeles.
Which is getting a lot harder to do as I get older.
No matter, though.
Here’s why each Western team will and will not win the Cup.
Vegas Golden Knights
Why They Will
Yesterday, I discussed how the Carolina Hurricanes have a great style of play that leads to great scoring chances, but the talent isn’t where it needs to be to finish those chances off.
That’s not a problem with Vegas.
Jack Eichel is having a career year, along with Mark Stone and Tomas Hertl who are proven playoff performers.
Vegas gets the chances, and puts them away.
Why They Won’t
Carolina gets quality chances, and also limits them.
Vegas does not, as the Golden Knights are 20th in expected goals against.
The West has way too much scoring talent for that to be acceptable come playoff time.
If that doesn’t improve, they don’t have a chance.
Los Angeles Kings
Why They Will
The Darcy Kuemper-Pierre Luc-Dubois trade between the Kings and Capitals is the perfect example of a win-win move.
Kuemper has had a phenomenal season in net, and the Kings young talent is hitting at just the right time to remind me of the 2012-2014 LA Kings Cup teams.
It’s all clicking together.
Why They Won’t
This Kings team is good.
It’s not 2012-2014 good.
Kuemper isn’t Jonathan Quick. Quinton Byfield isn’t Jeff Carter or Justin Williams. Anze Kopitar is not the Anze Kopitar of 13 years ago.
The Kings play great hockey, but the talent isn’t good enough to go all the way.
Edmonton Oilers
Why They Will
This is the same team that was one win away from raising the Cup last year, and this time they added Jeff Skinner to give them an extra boost.
It also doesn’t hurt that they have the best player in the sport at their disposal.
Connor McDavid surely remembers last years run, and wants to do anything to make it back there.
Watch out.
Why They Won’t
Injuries.
McDavid just returned from an injury. Leon Draisaitl, Evander Kane, and Mattias Ekholm are all out. Zach Hyman and Jake Walman are banged up.
There’s an injury bug, and then there’s what Edmonton has.
It’s brutal.
Winnipeg Jets
Why They Will
Having the best goalie in the sport playing at an MVP level never hurts, and Connor Hellebuyck stand on his head all year long.
The Jets rode that performance to an unexpected President’s Trophy, their first ever.
So yeah. Best overall record and the best goalie.
Not hard to see why they’ll win it all.
Why They Won’t
The last full season President’s Trophy winner to win the Stanley Cup was the 2008 Detroit Red Wings.
The last team to rely mostly on their goaltending to win a Stanley Cup was the 2012 Los Angeles Kings.
The Jets were 11th in expected goals per game, which is not bad at all, but is also not President’s Trophy level.
A few bad games from Hellebuyck may have the Jets crash and burn.
Get it?
Because Jets.
Yeah.
Dallas Stars
Why They Will
The team is super talented up front with their scoring, have an excellent defenseman in Miro Heiskanen, and a great goaltender in Jake Oettinger.
What’s not to like?
Why They Won’t
I’ll tell you what’s not to like.
Miro Heiskanen is hurt. So is Jason Robertson.
Their right defensemen are horrible.
Oh, and they’ve lost 7 straight games to end the season.
The talent is hurt, they’re slumping, and the underlying numbers aren’t pretty.
This team feels like a pretender.
Colorado Avalanche
Why They Will
The Av’s were led by their defense this year, which is a crazy thing to think about considering how awful their defense and goaltending was to begin the year.
But they made a trade to get Mackenzie Blackwood, who had a fantastic season, and the best defensemen in the league in Cale Makar.
Oh, and playoff stud Nathan MacKinnon runs the scoring.
Their slow start to the year put them as a 3 seed, but this is a great team.
Why They Won’t
The offensive talent is there, but it’s not performing as it should.
They were 16th in goals for, and 16th in expected goals for.
Smack in the middle for production, and what they were expected to do.
The Corsi (shot attempts 5 on 5) numbers are good, so the performance should be better.
And yet, it’s not.
At a certain point, the offense just is what it is.
And it isn’t great.
Minnesota Wild
Why They Will
The Wild have a solid defense.
Defense helps prevent shots and keep the puck out of the net.
So. That’s good.
All they need is Kirill Kaprizov to go superhero mode, and they’ll be fine.
Why They Won’t
Kaprizov went superhero mode this year, playing at a 112 point pace.
But he only played half of the games due to injury, and the Wild were still bottom 10 in expected goals for, with a decent goaltender in Filip Gustavsson.
Solid defense is nice, but everything else isn’t good enough.
St. Louis Blues
Why They Will
The Blues were one of the hottest teams in hockey to end the year.
While fighting for a playoff spot, they won 13 of 16 games (including 12 straight) and clinched their spot.
You always, always, want to be playing your best hockey to end the year, and the Blues are.
Why They Won’t
Or are they?
Yeah, they finished the year 13-3 in their last 16, but the last 4 they went 1-3, including two losses to playoff teams in Winnipeg and Edmonton.
It felt like a reminder that, despite their hot streak near the end, this is still a flawed team that made the playoffs by a tiebreaker over Calgary.
