Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win the Stanley Cup: Western Conference
Photo by Jerome Miron from USA Today
Before we get to the list, I’d like to pay respect to a former Western Conference team that is losing their team to Salt Lake City.
The Coyotes never had great attendance, and nobody will disagree with that, but when it came to playoff time and the Yotes were in it, that building cooked.
And there are a lot of Arizona hockey fans who lost their team due to incompetent ownership, and that sucks.
Hopefully, we see hockey in Arizona again, but with better management.
Hopefully see you soon, Yotes.
Dallas Stars
Why They Will
The team, as a whole, is very deep and very talented, with a perfect balance of veterans who have made playoff runs before, and young energy to carry the torch into the next era.
The Stars have knocked on the door for a few years now.
They’re ready to break the bastard down.
Why They Won’t
Jake Oettinger has been great in the playoffs previously, and he’s been great this year as well.
But his goals saved above expected is exactly where it should be at 1.9.
Is that bad? No, not at all. It means he’s consistent and he’s had a good year.
But it also means that if the Stars run into a red hot forward core like Edmonton, and you need your goalie to stand on his head, Oettinger might just not be that guy this year.
Winnipeg Jets
Why They Will
Connor Hellebuyck is the best goalie in hockey.
He has been absolutely insane this year, and having him between the posts means the Jets don’t have to play scared or worried defensively, because they have Hellebuyck back there.
It lets guys like Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Josh Morrissey attack.
Why They Won’t
Their play SHOWS that they don’t worry about defending for Hellebuyck, as shown by Hellebuyck’s 33 goals saved above expected.
Sure, it’s nice to have the safety net there.
But if you use it too much, it starts to break down and will eventually stop saving your behind.
Colorado Avalanche
Why They Will
The Avalanche offense is one of the best in the league, with their expected goals for being 3rd in the league behind Florida and Edmonton.
Why They Won’t
Their defense on the other hand…
The Avs gave up the most goals by any playoff team in the Western Conference, and that’s WITH Alexandar Giorgiev saving 5 goals above expected.
That’s not going to work.
Nashville Predators
Why They Will
People forget this, but the last spot in the West was a tight battle between the Preds, Blues, Flames, Kraken and even Coyotes at one point.
And then, the Predators went absolutely nuclear and blew them out of the water.
They are a red hot hockey team.
Why They Won’t
Their goals for above expected is -16.22.
Big whoop, right? That just means they’ve been unlucky.
That’s true, but they also have a goals against above expected of -7.77.
At what point does it change from “they’re unlucky” to “they just don’t have the talent to succeed?”
Vancouver Canucks
Why They Will
The Canucks, top team in the Pacific, got their starting goaltender back in Thatcher Demko.
When you’re that good AND get your starting goalie back, you’re set up for success.
Why They Won’t
You want to talk about lucky?
The Canucks have a goal differential above expected of 37.17.
The pendulum always swings back.
Edmonton Oilers
Why They Will
I don’t think I need to explain the Oilers offense. It speaks for itself.
What’s an underrated part of this Oilers team is how good their defense is. They are a top 5 team in the NHL in expected goals against.
What’s not to love about this team?
Why They Won’t
Do you trust Stuart Skinner to make a clutch save in the playoffs?
He’s had a good year, sure.
He had a good year last year, too.
And then he had a goals saved above expected number of -6.2.
Sorry, but I need to see more before I put any faith in Skinner.
Vegas Golden Knights
Why They Will
They won it last year, and they’re getting Mark Stone back right as the playoffs begin.
Not to mention, they’re likely even better than last year with the addition of Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl.
Why They Won’t
Hockey season is long, and when you make the Stanley Cup you play more hockey than anyone else.
It may sound like a dumb reason, but there’s a reason there aren’t many back to back champs in the NHL.
Eventually, you just run out of steam.
Los Angeles Kings
Why They Will
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Kings have a good defense and solid goaltending and have used that to get into the postseason.
Every hockey fan from the early 2010’s just got flashbacks.
Why They Won’t
I know they have won Cups like this before, but they severely underperform their expected goals for.
In 2012, that didn’t matter in the playoffs, thanks to players like Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, Justin Williams and so on.
This year? Their star players are guys like Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, and still Anze Kopitar an Drew Doughty, just 12 years older.
It’s not the same team.
