Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win The Stanley Cup: Western Conference
Photo by Jason Franson from The Canadian Press
While the Eastern Conference has some of the most high powered offenses in the league, the Western Conference playoff teams have mostly gotten by on defense and goaltending.
That is, except for one of them.
Here is why each Western Conference team will and will not win the Stanley Cup.
Vegas Golden Knights
Why They Will: The roster is loaded.
Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore, Mark Stone, Phil Kessel, Jonathan Marchessault, Alex Pietrangelo. The list goes on and on.
Add in a revitalized and pissed off Jonathan Quick in goal after his surprise trade from Los Angeles, and they have the back end strength to go with some high powered offensive skills to make a deep run.
Why They Won’t: All of that high powered offensive skill materialized to less expected goals in 5v5 situations than the New York Islanders.
That ain’t good!
And it really doesn’t help when you consider there are four other teams who allow less expected goals against than they do.
Vegas could really find it tricky to score goals, and that is going to sink them.
Edmonton Oilers
Why They Will: Quite frankly, it’d be easier to explain why they wouldn’t.
They have the best player in the world in Connor McDavid who put up over 150 points, something not done since Mario Lemieux in 1996, and while there is no guaranteed powerplay in the NHL, the Oilers are pretty damn close to it.
This team is absurdly good.
Why They Won’t: Rookie goaltender Stuart Skinner actually had a very good year! But the playoffs are a different beast, and we have seen many a talented goalie flame out once the lights get brighter.
Not to mention, the playoffs are called differently, so that lethal powerplay may not get as many chances to get the Oilers on the board.
Los Angeles Kings
Why They Will: Despite being third in the division behind the Golden Knights and Oilers, they have better 5v5 numbers than Vegas does.
And it’s not like it’s a secret to have strong defensive play carry Los Angeles to a Stanley Cup.
Why They Won’t: They just don’t have the talent.
That 2012 team that rode the defense to the Cup had Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Quick, Alec Martinez, Jeff Carter.
They may have been defensive, but they were really good.
Now, they don’t have Quick, Martinez or Carter, and they do have Doughty and Kopitar but obviously 10 years older and not quite as good.
It just doesn’t feel like they have the talent to get by some incredibly talented squads.
But with how young their core pieces are, it’s not that big of a deal for them.
Winnipeg Jets
Why They Will: Elite goaltending.
Connor Hellebuyck continues to prove himself as one of the best goaltenders in the world, and with a weaker offensive conference as mentioned above, elite goaltending could be all the difference needed to make a run.
Not to mention, their expected goals have skyrocketed near the end of the season. They’re playing some good hockey.
Why They Won’t: A lot of that red hot play is due to four specific players.
That’s great in the regular season, but when the games get harder and the shifts seem to get a little longer, you need depth.
I’m not worried about guys like Mark Scheiffle and Kyle Connor.
It’s what happens when they’re off the ice that’s a problem.
Star players still only play a third of the game during the playoffs, and that’s a lot of time for the rest of an underperforming bunch to lose games.
Colorado Avalance
Why They Will: The Av’s won the Stanley Cup last year, and still won a tough central division this year after a putrid start due to injuries.
It was a reminder that even though the point total wasn’t the same as last year, they can still beat down anybody they face.
Why They Won’t: They’re still hurt.
Captain Gabriel Landeskog missed the entire season, and it was announced he will miss the postseason as well, and he scored a lot of dirty goals during their run last season.
On that note, they also lost Andre Burakovsky and Nazem Kadri from last year’s Cup team, another two who scored huge goals for them.
That’s quite a lot of production to make up for.
Dallas Stars
Why They Will: Jake Oettinger had one a postseason last year that many won’t remember because the Stars lost in round 1, but he was unreal.
It was one of the best goaltending performances in playoff history, so much so that he still had the highest goals saved above expected after three rounds, even though the Stars got eliminated round 1.
Oettinger has the makings of being a playoff goalie.
Why They Won’t: Much like Igor Shesterkin in New York, his regular season follow up to an absurd postseason was not as promising, as he was 12th in the NHL in goals saved above expected.
12th is still good! But with a Stars offense that isn’t high powered, he’s going to need to be better than that for them to win it all.
Minnesota Wild
Why They Will: They have a superstar in their midst.
Kirill Kaprizov isn’t Connor McDavid by any means, but he has shown in multiple postseasons that when he gets going, the Wild score at will.
He’s back from his injury, and he’s ready to hit the ground running yet again.
Why They Won’t: The defense is fine, but the goaltending is below average and the offensive output apart from Kaprizov is putrid.
The Wild are going to need Kaprizov to put together the best postseason in NHL history to win it all, and even then it might not be enough.
Seattle Kraken
Why They Will: Remember earlier when I said the Jets don’t have the depth to make a run?
Depth is the one thing the Kraken do not have to worry about (forgive the sea pun).
The Kraken’s 5v5 scoring is what dragged them to the postseason, with fourth liners like Daniel Sprong netting 21 goals.
If one of their top guys struggles to score, they have help behind them to pick up some slack.
Why They Won’t: As I mentioned yesterday, I do not believe you need elite goaltending, but you do need good enough goaltending.
The Kraken do not have good enough goaltending.
There were flashes of success from Philip Grubauer and Martin Jones, but those were often followed by a few games of poor performances.
Even league average goaltending would be crucial to the Kraken, but they haven’t gotten that.
Good luck facing Nathan Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen with below average goaltending.
My Western Conference Champion Prediction
If the Oilers had average goaltending last year, they would have been legitimate Cup contenders.
Stuart Skinner gives them that this year, and even if he struggles a bit, their offensive output is otherworldly.
The Edmonton Oilers will win the Western Conference.
Stanley Cup Prediction
And that means, for the first time since 1993, Canada will host Lord Stanley’s Cup, as the Edmonton Oilers will take on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Two high powered offenses led by a group of young superstars means we should see a lot of goals in this final.
But when the offenses are that great, goaltending will be the difference.
Edmonton has the upper hand, and rookie Stuart Skinner will be the true difference maker.
The Edmonton Oilers win the 2023 Stanley Cup.
