Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win the NBA Championship: Western Conference
Photo by Kirby Lee from Imagn Images
Oklahoma City’s title defense began with the possibility of them breaking the 2016 Warriors 73-9 record, and ended with them only managing a measly 64 wins.
But the West has lots of candidates to prevent them from repeating as champs.
Here’s why each team will, or why they won’t.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Why The Will
They have the reigning league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will likely be MVP again, they are extremely deep, and they won 64 games in a very tough conference.
They are the clear favorites, and they should be.
Why They Won’t
Not only has it been since 2018 since a team repeated, it’s been a long time since the defending champion even got past the second round.
The Lakers didn’t in 2021, nor did the Bucks in 2022, Warriors in 2023, Nuggets in 2024, or Celtics in 2025.
The Thunder have played a lot of basketball, and have shown they don’t just roll over the Nuggets or Spurs.
With a target on their back, they might be in trouble.
San Antonio Spurs
Why They Will
They have the most insanely freak NBA player of all time in Victor Wembanyama, and even without him playing a ton of minutes, the Spurs don’t miss a step.
Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox are more than talented enough to make up for the minutes Wemby doesn’t play.
Not to mention, defense is a huge part of the playoffs, and there’s nobody better defensively than Wemby.
Why They Won’t
Wemby, because he’s 7’4 and not very muscular, is often a little big banged up.
In fact, he’s dealing with an injury right now.
Playoff basketball is physical, and he’s already hurting.
If he isn’t 100%, or doesn’t stay 100%, the Spurs go from a title contender to just simply a solid team that can’t get all the way there.
Denver Nuggets
Why They Will
I know SGA is going to win another MVP, but the best player in the league is Nikola Jokic.
He is one of the best offensive players I have ever seen.
Add in Jamal Murray having a career year and Aaron Gordon’s great defense, and you have yourself a great shot at the title.
Why They Won’t
Aaron Gordon battles injuries a lot.
If he can’t stay healthy, the Nuggets are just plainly not a good defensive team.
Good luck even getting to the Finals with a bad defense having to face these offenses.
Los Angeles Lakers
Why They Will
It took a long time for them to gel, but once LeBron James took a more reserved role and let Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves run the show, the Lakers looked absolutely dominant.
Why They Won’t
Luka and Reaves are both hurt, and there’s question on if they’ll be back for round one where the Lakers will face a red hot Rockets team.
There’s a very real chance they get bounced in round 1.
Houston Rockets
Why They Will
Even after multiple slumps and a scandal of Kevin Durant trashing his own teammates in a leaked group chat, the Rockets still ended the season red hot.
If they can get over that, why couldn’t they keep this hot streak going?
Why They Won’t
I know the concept of a point guard has kind of dwindled in the NBA, as it’s more often than not the best player on the team that brings the ball up the floor and runs the offense, but they still matter.
For example, the Rockets don’t have good guard play, and Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, who are the best players on the Rockets, are not good at bringing the ball up the floor.
That leads to many mistakes bringing the ball up the floor, and in the postseason where every possession matters, that’s a pretty big issues.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Why They Will
They’ve been knocking on the door for a few years now, and Anthony Edwards might be ready to break that door down.
They have always played Denver tough, who they face in round 1, and if they get by them, they’ll want revenge on a Thunder team that beat them in the conference finals last year in a 5 game series.
They may be a six seed, but they’ve shown to turn it up to 11 come playoff time.
Why They Won’t
Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels might not be healthy, and they weren’t necessarily load managing, as they still had a chance at the 5 seed.
And if they’re not healthy, that series against Denver is going to be ugly and over quickly.
7. Phoenix Suns
Why They Will
Hey, they made the playoffs, and we’ve seen Devin Booker go nuclear before.
So why not?
Why They Won’t
Even if Booker does go nuclear, they simply don’t have enough talent to take down the elite in the West.
Sorry, Suns.
Portland Trail Blazers
Why They Will
They won’t.
Why They Won’t
But can we just talk about how cool it is that they made the playoffs?
The Blazers season began, literally BEGAN, with their head coach being arrested by the FBI for an illegal gambling ring, and they still found a way to make the play in despite being in the extremely tough Western Conference.
So who cares that they won’t make it, and likely won’t even make it into the postseason at all after the Play-In?
This was a successful year for Portland.
Los Angeles Clippers
Why They Will
Is it crazy to say this might be the best Kawhi season since he dragged the 2019 Raptors to the title?
I feel like it very clearly is.
Add in that the Clippers were dead to rights early in the season before going 35-17 the rest of the way and making the playoffs.
Sure, they cooled off near season’s end, but they’re still playing very good basketball.
Why They Won’t
This may be Kawhi’s best season in LA, but he is still not the player he was in 2019, or in 2014.
And, the Clippers don’t have much help around him.
He’s not going to drag this team to a title.
Golden State Warriors
Why They Will
Steph Curry is still an elite shooter and the three point shot is still the best way to win.
So, sure.
It’s possible.
Why They Won’t
Warriors coach Steve Kerr already announced Curry, because of injury, is going to be on a minutes restriction in a do or die game.
The Warriors are telling you they have no interest in winning a title, and we should listen to them.
