Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win the NBA Championship: Western Conference
Photo from USA Today
The East is a two horse race.
The West? Wiiiiide open.
The 7 seed playing in the play-in tonight, has the 5th best Vegas odds to win it all.
It’s anyone’s game, so let’s see why they will or won’t.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Why They Will
They won 68 games. They have the league MVP in Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. They have one of the highest point differentials ever. They have an insanely deep roster. They play excellent defense.
They are the best team in the league. Period.
Why They Won’t
SGA is amazing, but he has yet to show himself as a playoff superstar.
That’s fine, though. After all, the Celtics didn’t have a full blown playoff superstar last year, and they won the title.
But they had an easy route.
The Thunder have to get through guys like LeBron, Luka, Steph, Jokic, Anthony Edwards, Kawhi Leonard, and all the talented rosters alongside them as well.
Not to mention, the Thunder are still very young, and have only won one playoff series with this core group.
If Oklahoma City was in the East, they’d breeze to the Finals and after that, they’d only need to win 4 games to win it all.
But geography put them in the West, and that makes their job significantly harder.
Houston Rockets
Why They Will
The Rockets are extremely well coached.
Ime Udoka was the architect of the Celtics style of play before he was let go for internal issues, and he’s picked up right where he left off with turning the Rockets around.
Coaching matters in every sport. Udoka is a huge factor here.
Why They Won’t
They’re just not that good yet.
That’s ok, mind you. They’re very young. And you can see the sculpting taking place, much like how you could see it with OKC a couple of years ago.
But they aren’t there yet.
Los Angeles Lakers
Why They Will
Luka Doncic and LeBron James.
That’s all that needs to be said.
These two are absolute superstars playing at an insanely high level, and when they are, this team is almost unstoppable offensively.
Why They Won’t
You do not need the best defense to win a championship.
But you probably need a good defense.
The Lakers defensive rating is 113.8, which is third worst among West playoff teams. Only ahead of Dallas and Sacramento, both of whom are play-in teams.
The Lakers offense is outstanding, but they’re in a conference with lots of great offenses, and I have serious questions on if the defense can hold these teams at bay.
Denver Nuggets
Why They Will
The Nuggets are only two years removed from a championship, and have the best player in the sport in Nikola Jokic. If Jamal Murray is healthy, and Aaron Gordon plays at the defensive level we know he can, the team that won it all two years ago has the capability to do it all again.
Why They Won’t
Jamal Murray is not healthy, the team is not as good as the 2023 team, they just fired their coach and have an interim taking over, and their third best scoring option is Russell Westbrook who doesn’t have the greatest playoff resume in the world.
There’s too much of a mess for Jokic to clean up all by himself.
Los Angeles Clippers
Why They Will
Outside of the teams who can’t seem to lose at all, (OKC, Boston, Cleveland), the Clippers are maybe playing the best basketball in the league.
Kawhi Leonard is healthy and finally living up to what was expected of him when he signed there in 2019. James Harden is playing like he’s in his 20s again. Ty Lue is showing why he is an excellent coach.
It also can’t be understated that now that the Clippers finally have their own arena, they have their own genuine home court advantage.
This is a 5 seed playing at a 1 seed level, right now.
They’re dangerous.
Why They Won’t
James Harden has had playoff failures for years and years, but those came when he was the main option in Houston, or when he was a duo or the second option in Philly, had Joel Embiid who shrinks come playoff time as well.
Now, Harden can be the second option behind Kawhi, and maybe that takes some pressure off and he can pull through.
The problem is, will Kawhi stay healthy for a full playoff run?
I hope he does. He’s an excellent player. But it is a fair question considering his history.
And if he can’t or if he has an off night, that Harden playoff conundrum remains.
It might help him come through and have a great scoring night.
It also might come roaring back and mean the Clippers have no scoring at all.
Good luck getting through the West with scoring droughts and poor shooting performances.
The Clippers need Harden at his best, and history shows us that may not go so well.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Why They Will
Anthony Edwards showed last year that, come playoff time, he can turn it up to 11 and take over games.
It was awesome to see from the youngster, and showed promise that it will continue going forward and the Wolves have their superstar to take them to a title.
Why They Won’t
Last year, the Timberwolves went to the conference finals on the backs of Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns.
They then traded Towns for Julius Randle.
So now, the big three for Minnesota is Edwards, who is awesome, alongside Randle and Rudy Gobert, who shrink come playoff time.
That’s not going to go well.
Golden State Warriors
Why They Will
They still have Steph Curry, the best shooter ever, Draymond Green, an excellent defender, and Steve Kerr, an excellent head coach.
They also added Jimmy Butler, who is a prime playoff performer.
Ever since that Butler trade, the Warriors got red hot.
The pieces are there.
Why They Won’t
The pieces would be a lot better if this was 2017, but it’s not.
Curry is hurt and older. Draymond is still good defensively, but nowhere near what he was (and not the defensive player of the year, despite the fact that he’s going to win it), and Jimmy Butler is also hurt and older.
Not to mention, the red hot Warriors from directly after the Butler trade are gone, and they’ve cooled off massively.
Their window is closed.
Memphis Grizzlies
Why They Will
Ja Morant is really good, and despite the outrage from everyone regarding his celebrations, he’s having a lot of fun.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is also really good, so the Grizzlies have a 1-2 punch in their prime that can make them contenders going forward for a long while.
Why not now?
Why They Won’t
They have an interim coach after surprisingly firing head coach Taylor Jenkins, and they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record in the West since January 30th against the Houston Rockets.
It’s April. And the playoffs are full of Western teams with winning records.
So not winning those games will probably hurt their chances.
Hot take, I know.
Sacramento Kings
Why They Will
The Kings have a top 10 offense in the sport, per offensive rating.
Even higher than the Lakers!
You have to score points to win games, so having a good offense helps!
Why They Won’t
They can score as much as they want, but their trash defense means they won’t be able to outscore their way to a title.
So unless the defense does a miraculous 180, the Kings are a quick exit.
Dallas Mavericks
Why They Will
God feels bad that Mavs fans have so much pain after the blindsiding Luka trade and Kyrie Irving’s torn ACL that they make Anthony Davis do what he did at Kentucky and become the greatest player in the sport and lead his team to a title.
Why They Won’t
That just seems unlikely to happen, in my opinion.
