Why Each Team Will/Will Not Win MLS Cup: Western Conference
Photo from Nashville SC
Every year since 2015, the Western Conference representative in MLS Cup has been either Portland or Seattle.
But fear not! The West is finally saved, as Portland and Seattle both missed the playoffs.
Now the question is, who wins the race to replace them?
Here is why each Western Conference team will or will not win MLS Cup.
LAFC
Why They Will: LAFC won the Supporter’s Shield this season for the second time in their history, and it was clear to see why. They had a foolproof system in place.
Step 1: Get the lead.
Step 2: Keep the lead.
Seriously. LAFC only dropped 3 points from winning positions this season, which is best in MLS.
They have a fantastic roster, crucially from a rebuilt back line.
Why They Won’t: There’s just something about LAFC in the postseason that’s not the same as LAFC in the regular season.
Even in 2019 when they won the Supporter’s Shield, they gave up 6 goals in 2 games and failed to even make MLS Cup.
LAFC rebuilt their backline this year, but it’s still far from perfect, and they’ve shown that a lot at times down the stretch of the season.
Austin FC
Why They Will: Go rewatch Austin FC highlights from the beginning of the season, and crucially their game against LAFC in late August.
When this team is hot, they are a freight train.
If they can get hot again, they’ll make mincemeat out of this conference.
Why They Won’t: Notice how I said “if they can get hot again” above.
Since their dominating win over LAFC, they have won 1 game from their last 7, including 3 losses to non playoff teams.
They are not playing good soccer going into the playoffs.
FC Dallas
Why They Will: I mean, they have to get one soon, right?
They’ve been a consistent playoff team year after year, but never had the true star power to win it.
Now they have Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola, two very, very good MLS players to help them be successful in the part of the season that matters most.
It just has to happen at some point.
Why They Won’t: The issue with FC Dallas being a better team on paper this year, is that it didn’t necessarily translate to on field success.
The defense is great, but they struggled to score goals at many points through the season.
With the firepower LAFC, Austin and even the LA Galaxy have, Dallas is going to have to score.
LA Galaxy
Why They Will: I said last year that Greg Vanney would be able to get the Galaxy turned around in year 2, somewhat similar to what he did with Toronto FC.
He did, and while that TFC team was stacked, this one might be even better.
Chicharito has proven to be quite the fox in the box like he has been everywhere else he’s gone, Riqui Puig has been an absurd addition to the Galaxy, and they have a definitive Vanney style of play.
They got better as the year went on, and that’s a great way to go into the playoffs.
Why They Won’t: That TFC team that made the playoffs in year 2 with Vanney was talented but fell short of MLS Cup because they simply didn’t have the full squad set up to succeed.
The Galaxy are the same way. They have great pieces up front, but the defense still isn’t up to snuff.
It feels like the Galaxy need just one more offseason to truly be contenders.
Nashville SC
Why They Will: Much like LAFC, Nashville has a great two step program for success.
Step 1: Play great defense.
Step 2: Hany Mukhtar scores the goals.
Hey, it got them into the playoffs again and Mukhtar is going to win MVP. Why wouldn’t it keep working?
Why They Won’t: Because you need more than just Hany.
In last year’s postseason, Mukhtar had a phenomenal game against Orlando which got Nashville into the conference semifinals against Philadelphia.
But then against Philly, Mukhtar didn’t have his best performance and Nashville was eliminated on penalty kicks.
Someone else needs to step up in case Hany can’t, and I’m not sure who that’ll be.
Minnesota United
Why They Will: Reynoso goes completely nuclear and drags this team on his back no matter what.
Realistically, that’s the only way I can see it happening.
Why They Won’t: They just don’t have anything going for them defensively.
A lot of that is injuries, but that’s part of the game.
Seriously, Reynoso is going to have to be the greatest player in MLS history for them to win it all, and I’m not betting on that. Even if he is amazing.
Real Salt Lake
Why They Will: They almost got to MLS Cup last season despite a gigantic talent deficiency, and they made the playoffs this year with the same issue.
But there is something to be said about how well RSL plays when they need a big performance.
Luckily for them, the postseason is full of big games needing big performances.
They’re ready.
Why They Won’t: I said this yesterday about the Red Bulls.
Mucking up the game and making it sloppy so you succeed can work for a playoff upset or two, but it isn’t sustainable over an entire postseason.
RSL just doesn’t have the talent to win, but watch out for them against Austin FC.
That has upset written all over it.
