Why Each AFC Team Will/Will Not Win the Super Bowl
Photo by Dylan Buell from Getty Images
The NFL and MLS both have a crucial part of their postseasons that I love.
It’s always win or go home.
Which means, no matter what your seed, any team hot enough at the right time can win it all, and the best teams can fall short.
So, as I do every year, I’ve decided to explain why each AFC team will or will not win the Super Bowl this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
Why They Will
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are the best quarterback and head coach duo in football, and despite losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the offseason, they somehow got better this year.
They’ve been here before. They know what needs to be done. They can outscore anyone at will.
They are the favorites in the AFC. Maybe in football overall.
Why They Won’t
The Chiefs are 17th in defensive DVOA this season.
That’s not bad. It’s league average. And in the NFC, that’d be fine.
But they’re in the AFC.
A league average defense going up against Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, red hot Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and potentially Lamar Jackson if he returns?
That’s a lot of hoops to jump through with a league average defense…
Buffalo Bills
Why They Will
The Bills offense is not as good as the Chiefs, but they’re still a good offense.
What they have going for them that the Chiefs don’t, is the number 2 ranked defense by DVOA this year.
The Bills can score, but more importantly they can slow down the barrage of other top tier AFC QBs to help themselves pull away.
Why They Won’t
It’s difficult to explain, but something has just been off about the Bills recently in the sense that both sides of the ball aren’t clicking at the same time.
If the offense is scoring, the defense is giving up points.
If the defense is playing shutdown football, Allen and crew are sluggish.
If one side isn’t working, it could be lights out in a win or go home type of postseason.
Cincinnati Bengals
Why They Will
Getting hot matters.
Look at the Dolphins. They got hot early in the season, and that hot streak was enough of a buffer to get them into the playoffs despite late season struggles.
But you definitely want to be hot at the right time, and that’s what the Bengals are.
Burrow is playing lights out and the Bengals have won 8 finished games in a row, and looked really good against the Bills before the unfortunate injury to Damar Hamlin.
They feel like a freight train.
Why They Won’t
The Bengals are sort of like a lite version of the Chiefs.
Their offense isn’t as good, but it’s still great.
Their defense is better than the Chiefs, but it’s still 11th in DVOA.
They can’t exactly get the big stops they need against the elite QBs, and while they can maybe outscore Jacksonville through Miami, I have doubts they can do it to a team like the Bills or Chiefs if the defense plays an average game.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Why They Will
Same thing as the Bengals.
This is a red hot offense with a red hot quarterback.
Never underestimate the hot teams going into the playoffs.
Why They Won’t
They simply aren’t good enough this year.
Sometimes, it’s as easy as that.
But I don’t think Jags fans will care much. Winning the division year one of the Lawrence-Pederson partnership is enough to bring a huge amount of excitement for the future of the Jags.
Enjoy the ride, Duval.
Los Angeles Chargers
Why They Will
There is an argument to be made, with Herbert, Eckler, good receivers, a great defensive line and solid secondary pieces, that the Chargers are the most talented team on paper.
They’ve spent all year being beat up and injured, but they’re getting healthier and if they put everything together, they are a huge threat.
Why They Won’t
It’s the Chargers.
They won’t stay healthy. They won’t put everything together. Brandon Staley will do something as a coach that dominates sports talk media questioning whatever it is that he did.
It’s the DNA of the Chargers.
Baltimore Ravens
Why They Will
A 10-7 season may not be what Ravens fans wanted, but considering Lamar Jackson missed multiple weeks due to injury, that’s sort of misleading a bit.
A Lamar Jackson return can help mask over some of the issues with this offense, and that can let the Ravens go on quite a run.
After all, the defense has been outstanding since the Ravens acquired Roquan Smith.
Why They Won’t
I’m writing this Wednesday and, as of right now, there still hasn’t been a single story about Lamar Jackson returning to practice.
If he doesn’t this team won’t beat the Bengals.
Tyler Huntley is a solid backup quarterback, but he doesn’t take this team to the next level.
Miami Dolphins
Why They Will
Miami’s offense, despite all the time Tua missed and the struggles they had with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson, were still 7th in offensive DVOA.
The Tua-McDaniel connection just works, and it works against good teams.
The offense was great against the Bills. They had a tremendous comeback against the Ravens. They could definitely at least stay close in a shootout against the Chiefs and Bengals defense.
Quite frankly, the Dolphins could outscore anyone when McDaniel and Tua click.
Why They Won’t
A couple reasons.
Tua has had three concussions this year, and there are still questions on if he will play against the Bills Sunday. If he doesn’t I don’t think Bridgewater or Thompson get the job done.
Late season Tua has not played as well as early season Tua, so I don’t believe his current level of play could beat the top dogs in the AFC.
