NFL Playoff Takeaways: Conference Championship

Photo by Stephen Brashear from The Associated Press

Well.

My 31st birthday in a couple of weeks sure is going to be a memorable one.

We have finally reached the Super Bowl, and it’s a matchup that I am willing to bet nobody thought we would have before the season began.

Such is life in the NFL.

Here is what we learned from Conference Championship Sunday.

Patriots defeat Broncos 10-7

The Broncos defense knew that they needed to step up, and step up they did.

They were absolutely excellent all game long, only allowing one touchdown drive which was just 12 yards after a fumble by Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos.

But it didn’t matter, and the worst thing is that it very easily could have.

Early in the game, with a 7-0 lead, the Broncos faced a 4th in 1 in the redzone. It’s almost always a clear go for it situation.

But this wasn’t one of those times.

With a backup QB who hasn’t started a game in two years, the Broncos decided to go for it instead of taking the points with a chip shot field goal.

The Patriots defense responded with an all out blitz, knowing it would shut down the run, or put so much pressure on Stidham who has hardly any experience, and force him to throw a bad pass under duress, which is exactly what happened.

It was an obvious choice to kick the field goal there and go up 10 with how well the defense was playing.

Obviously, the game would have gone to overtime, and who knows who would win in the end. Maybe the Broncos still end up losing.

But they never had a chance, and it was all due to a really poor job understanding the game situation by Sean Payton.

With Bo Nix, it’s the right call to go for it.

With Jarrett Stidham, it’s a huge mistake.

Seahawks defeat Rams 31-27

I didn’t make a prediction for this game.

I just couldn’t. I had absolutely no idea who was going to win.

But I did know that if the Seahawks didn’t shut down Matt Stafford, the Rams were likely going to win.

Stafford was absolutely excellent all game long but the Seahawks essentially led wire to wire, and it’s entirely because of Sam Darnold.

I was extremely critical of the Seahawks decision to get rid of Geno Smith and sign Sam Darnold.

I did not see the vision. I didn’t think he was going to thrive in Seattle after how disastrous his last two games were in Minnesota, and even though I was wrong about him overall because he was good this year, I was still worried about him turning the ball over at such a high rate.

If he had a single turnover last night, it’s very likely the Rams are heading to Santa Clara in two weeks.

But two things stood out to me the most about Darnold’s game, and the game in general.

First, all of Darnold’s touchdown passes came under pressure, which is what killed him repeatedly against the Rams the past two years.

Second, Darnold was 6-9 passing on 3rd and 4th down.

Stafford was 0-7.

Darnold was excellent, and the defense stepped up when they needed to.

And that’s why they’re headed to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Prediction

Public opinion will likely think this is an easy decision.

After all, the Patriots had the easiest schedule in the league, the offense has been mostly lethargic as of late, and a pretty easy road in the postseason with how poorly Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud played, plus facing Jarrett Stidham instead of Bo Nix.

So now, facing a red hot battle tested Seahawks team, this game shouldn’t even be close.

But I wouldn’t be so sure.

The reason the opposing QBs have played so poorly against the Pats defense is because they’re forcing turnovers, and Sam Darnold, despite two clean playoff games, was still the leading QB in terms of turning the ball over.

If the Pats can continue to force turnovers against a QB who is prone to turn it over, which is extremely possible, they can pull out a Super Bowl win.

But, with all due respect to the Patriots, this offense is the second weakest offense the Seahawks defense has played in the past 6 weeks, and the defense has been absolutely excellent.

I just can’t see the Pats doing enough offensively with the way they’re playing right now to get a victory.

The Seahawks win the Super Bowl.