Dick’s Picks: Week 9 Primer
Photo by Greg Allen from NPR
Hello Friends,
It’s Halloween weekend and hopefully this weekend’s bets don't paint me like a clown. Little Rock Chalk Jayhawk at noon, followed by the World’s Largest Cocktail Party and a potential duck hunting party in Utah. Only concluded with some rowdy Badgers hosting the buckeyes in Madison, Wisconsin and of course some PAC 12 after dark.
AND HERE WE GO!
Bet Record for Big Games (28-20-2 +7.79u, O/Us 13-6-1 +5.81u, Spreads 10-8-1 +1.19u, TTs 5-6 -1.16u, ML 2-0 +2.03u)
Last Week (2-3 -1.42, O/Us 2-2 -.22u, Spreads 0-1 -1.2u)
“Fox Big Noon” Game
Oklahoma vs Kansas (Oklahoma -9.5, O/U 66 12PM FOX)
Oklahoma was off a bye vs UCF and they got taken to the wire. And you could argue that without a strong second half comeback we are looking at a 6 and 1 Oklahoma team that wouldn’t have any wiggle room to make the big 12 championship. But they held on as a 17 point favorite and stopped a late effort by UCF and their cheeky two point conversion play.
On the other hand, Kansas comes off a much needed bye. You would expect that this would give time for Jalon Daniels to get healthy with his back and potentially allow him to play in this game. Early in the week the expectation is that Jason Bean will start and then we will see how Jalon Daniels is shuffled in. This could be all gamesmanship by Lance Leipold to sike out Brent Venables but we shall see. Venables is no dummy so I expect him and his staff to prepare for the potential for both to play and to not take this Kansas team lightly.
When Kansas has the ball
Both the Oklahoma defense and Kansas offense have been impressive this year. Oklahoma has made a huge jump from last year where they were just embarrassed week after week to now becoming a formidable defense. And this Kansas offense has built off of last year's success. Even with Jalon Daniels missing some games this year this offense is still in the top 10 in PPA & Success Rate. I've written about this offense before but it’s one of the most creative offenses in all of college football and if you haven’t seen it live it is really worth a watch. So creative with their motion and it really keeps a defense off balance with its mix of run and pass.
There isn’t really anything that this offense can’t do.
They excel both running and throwing the football. Maybe the only thing that you would love to see is more explosiveness in this offense but because they are able to stay ahead of the chain it’s not something that you necessarily fret about.
The Oklahoma defense comes in top 25 in both success rate and PPA which is a complete 180 from last year. They are great at stop running the run, however they struggle with the explosive plays. I think that was shown last week. UCF didn’t exactly have much success with moving the chains but they torched Oklahoma with an 86 yard touchdown pass from Plumlee in the second quarter.
Kansas isn’t necessarily elite at creating the explosive play, but I think with how well this offense can be schemed up, including the bye week, that there will be some opportunities for this offense to get some big plays against this Oklahoma defense. Oklahoma has struggled with explosiveness in the run and pass games which means that with this well oiled offense there will be opportunities through both avenues.
When Oklahoma has the ball
Now the Kansas defense is a big WOOF.
None of their numbers really grade out well.
Their numbers early in the season in defensive havoc have slowly gone down which is never good. The one thing though and it is all relative is that they limit the big play to the best of their ability. They grade out as 112/111 for PPA & Success Rate and 78th in explosiveness. So take that for what you will be this defense is not all that great.
What stinks for them is that this Oklahoma offense is more methodical and not necessarily reliant on the big play. Continuing to keep the chains moving and mostly through the air. The running game hasn’t been all that great but this Kansas defense struggles with the run so there may be some opportunities for this Oklahoma offense to get some yards on the ground.
You would like to see this Kansas defense match up well in either the run or the pass but they aren’t necessarily great at stopping one or the other. With the extra week there has to be some optimism for this defense but it will be an uphill battle for this defense.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
I think the big thing that goes into this handicap is the extra week for Lance Leipold and his staff to prepare for this Oklahoma defense. You hope that we get to see Jalon Daniels this week but if not Jason Bean has shown he is more than capable. This offense is so creative and giving them extra week to prepare for this Oklahoma that has shown the ability to get beat with the big plays may be something that they really hone in on. Have some trick plays ready as well as using that motion to their advantage. You hope that the extra week off allows for this defense to have a better game plan and execute better than they have the rest of this year. You have to imagine there is some improvement with how much tape is out on Oklahoma but then again this defense hasn’t been able to stop anybody this year.
In the end, I think 10 points at home is too many points for this Kansas offense with extra time to prepare. I lean to the over just because I don't believe in this Kansas defense getting stops here but that's a pretty public play so I will probably stay away. Kansas does have one of the top rushing rates in the country and Oklahoma does stop the run well but I think this will be big plays that will get Kansas scores. 66 points is a lot of points so even if it's a 35 to 28 game it still doesn’t get you over the total.
Bet: Kansas +10 -108 Win 1u (FanDuel)
Midday Rumbles
Georgia vs Florida (Georgia -14.5, O/U 49, 3:30PM CBS)
Another great rivalry that is always well done by playing at a neutral venue. Known as the “World’s Largest Cocktail Party,” it's quite the spectacle in Jacksonville, Florida. The name has been banned but if you are telling me that there aren’t 86k people trying to mix in a few cocktails before a great game every year you would be mistaken. The thumbnail speaks for itself.
The big question about Georgia this year has been about their mediocre performances. You win 2 national championships you have to wonder where the motivation is. And it's been apparent in pretty much every game except the Kentucky game in which they throttled them. But there have been so many lackluster performances.
The poor performance against South Carolina when they were down at half, almost losing to Auburn and then a sloppy performance against Vanderbilt two weeks ago. This team doesn’t have the talent of the past two teams but it doesn’t mean there isn’t some legit talent. It's unfortunate that Brock Bowers is hurt but you wonder if this a lackadaisical effort or an effort that we saw out of them vs Kentucky.
Now, I hate Graham Mertz.
I think he is an absolute poopy pants and when he steps up and plays the men he stinks. He was horrid against Utah and was not very good against Kentucky. He has had two nice games against Vandy & South Carolina, but again trash cans for defense. So this will be the test for him to see if he can step up against this Georgia pass defense and have one of those signature moments that he has really struggled to have against legit competition.
When Georgia has the ball
I mentioned it above, but the loss of Brock Bowers can’t be overstated. He’s been NFL ready since he was a freshman. And everybody knew his talent last year but I think this was his official coming out party. He's been an absolute stud. Carson Beck has been feeding him the ball and nobody can stop him. He’s an alien.
It's unfortunate that he got hurt, and I would assume he doesn’t come back this year so he can prepare for the draft. Such a shame that the last we see of him in Georgia uniform is walking off the field vs Vanderbilt.
#dickpicks is sad.
So he will be a big loss but that doesn’t mean that this offense doesn’t have some weapons. WRs Dominic Lovett & Rara Thomas have shown in their previous stops that they are legit #1 WRs and potential pros.
And I think maybe we will get to know who TE Oscar Delp is in this game, hes not Brock Bowers but he’s not slouch either.
And one piece that has really grown on me in this offense is Carson Beck. He has been super efficient this year and has been decent with the turnovers. 3 picks in the last 3 games is not great but I still believe in him. He has down all you can ask for at this point and I think with Bowers gone that he will be asked to do more and is he capable of that.
The Florida defense has had its moments this year. They rank well with defensive success rate but are abysmal at defending the explosive play.
So the big question is without Brock Bowers does this offense get more explosive. Because looking at the numbers this Georgia offense is not really all that explosive.
Part of that may just be that they can be so vanilla against these inferior teams. You would like to make the assumption that Mike Bobo has to change up his game plan and not be so reliant on these short throws where Brock Bowers excelled so much. Carson Beck is more than capable of airing out. So that is the big part of this game. Will Mike Bobo target some bigger plays and put this offense on the back of Carson Beck? I think he is more than capable of making those big throws. But you will be able to tell early in the game by the play selection if Mike Bobo has trust in Carson making those big throws.
While Florida has the ball
This Florida offense has had two consecutive nice performances but the question is when they step up to the “Big Boys” in the SEC can they compete. This Georgia defense of course is going to have very good numbers with the fact of the talent still left on this defense and the easy schedule they have played. The only real time that they have gotten a scare was that Auburn game which was a run heavy offense. Auburn was basically playing football before the forward pass was introduced.
So if there is a way to attack this Georgia defense it's through the ground. So can Florida have some success on the ground. With the talent that they have with RBs Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson in the backfield you would think they would. But looking at their stuff rates and line yards they have struggled. And it's not necessarily against elite defenses.
But against Tennessee, which has a very good defensive line, they had 183 yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. So that does bring some optimism for this Florida offense. And the one thing that Georgia does really struggle with is the explosive run play. Again Etienne and Johnson are more than capable backs so if they are consistent with pounding the rock there may be some opportunities to break open a big run and then potentially allow some easier throws for Graham Mertz to Ricky Pearsall who has been great this year. So there is definitely a path for this Florida offense to succeed and it starts on the ground.
If they can get some dominance in the trench this Florida team can stay around.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
I think the biggest part of the handicap for me on the side is whether or not this Georgia team wants to show up or not. I nailed it when they played Kentucky with Kentucky being a public dog and people not believing in Georgia. That was a great spot because of the performance against Auburn and that game being under the lights in between the hedges in Athens.
Now, both Georgia and Florida are off a bye and there will definitely be no lookahead. So I tend to lean to the fact that this Georgia team shows up with some motivation to put Florida in their place on a national stage. Missing Brock Bowers is a huge deal but you almost wonder without him if Florida has a good idea of what Georgia is going to do.
It’s weird to say, but I almost think that the uncertainty favors Georgia.
So for a side I would lean Georgia.
With that being said there is a ton of sharp money in Florida which makes complete sense. Georgia has shown some weakness with defending the run and if Florida can have some success, shorten the game that 14.5 becomes tough to cover. Especially if Florida gets a lead and bleeds some clock.
So what I will lean towards here is the Georgia TT O.
I will admit I have been below average with my TT bets this year. Some unlucky losses but not as many as I have wanted have gotten to the window. I lean towards the angle that with this Georgia team showing up and that almost unknown to their offense that Carson Beck has a great game and balls out this game.
I got this number on Thursday so I apologize for not giving a “live” number but was targeting the number when I first saw it. I got 30.5 so I took it.
I think this Florida defense is good, not great and Georgia may want to make a statement here and Kirby will get the boys up for this game. And one thing that stood out when looking at Florida’s defense is they struggle at giving up points once it gets in their end.
So even if they don’t hit those big plays, there is still some potential for this offense to move the ball on Florida’s side of the 50. If Georgia comes out flat this won’t have a chance and it will be an under game but I'll take my chances here and be a little contrarian.
Bet: Georgia TT O 30.5 -120 Win 1u (DraftKings)
After seeing this picture it looks like I may be putting my faith in a young ugly Elvis. Pray to the lord he shows up.
Oregon vs Utah (Oregon -6.5, O/U 48, 3:30PM FOX)
You really wish that we would see QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe for this game, but they have officially redshirted and will have another year of eligibility next year. I get it but it just sucks that we can’t see them in this great PAC 12 down the stretch to close out the season. But last week it didn’t matter who was at QB against the frauds from USC. They were led to victory by Bryson Barnes.
To put it in perspective, this kid was working at Lowes at the beginning of the year to pay for school since he wasn’t on scholarship.
People make the joke that back in the day pro athletes were plummers, well USC just lost to the guy that was selling equipment to plumbers. You have to wonder after back to back losses and presumably USC being out of the PAC 12 picture and playoff picture if Caleb Williams packs it in the year. Don’t see him really gaining anything to his draft stock at this point and he might get hurt so might be time to hang it up.
As for the Ducks they had an okay performance against Wazzu and Cam Ward last week. A little alarming that they gave up 438 in the air to this Wazzu team that was a dead man walking. The blueprint is out to stop this Wazzu team with how well Arizona & UCLA played against them. But they got torched. The offense looked fine. Took them a little while to get going but still ended up with 38. After that loss against Washington I thought they would want to lay the hammer down on this Wazzu team but they didn’t seem all that focused and left something to be desired.
When Utah has the ball
Now last week the Utah offense showed some life against a porous USC defense. Prior to the USC and Cal game the most points that this Utah offense had scored was 24 points and it wasn’t exactly against elite defenses either.
So it's an evaluation as to whether or not that production last week from USC and the week prior against Cal is something sustainable.
Looking at the numbers they get it done by pounding the rock. It's around a 65% rush rate which makes sense. Establish the run and then make some easier throws for Bryson Barnes to get comfortable.
Can this Oregon team stop the run is the big question here. They rank around middle of the pack at stopping the run and they haven’t exactly played against teams that are really committed to the run. But I think with HC Dan Lanning knowing that this Utah team is committed to the run makes their preparation a little more straightforward.
I think they load the box and make Barnes beat them. Their pass defense grades out better but they have struggled in the past two weeks.
Now those are against elite passing games in Wazzu and Washington, so I think this Utah offense is nowhere near that level with those weapons with WRs and definitely QBs. But if this Utah offense can establish the run in Rowdy Rice Eccles, watch out.
When Oregon has the ball
Now the Utah defense has been great all year. Basically has been carrying this team on their back for pretty much the whole year. If the Utah defense doesn’t step up in the UCLA game, Florida & Baylor game we are talking about a different Utah team going into this game.
The USC offense is very good but I think this Oregon offense is better. Nobody has really been able to stop this Oregon offense this year and it's apparent in the numbers. Number 2 in the country in PPA & #4 in success rate. Nobody has been able to stop this team from scoring or moving the chains.
The one thing that surprised me is that they are not all that explosive, which is shocking compared to Oregon's offenses that we are so used to watching with speedsters like LaMichael James, De’Anthony Thomas & Kenjon Barner just running up and down sidelines in Eugene.
But this is a different offense.
It's a super efficient offense that doesn’t need the big play to march up and down the field. And you know what this Utah defense actually matches up well with them. They struggle with giving up the big plays which Oregon doesn’t necessarily create and they are effective at stopping teams in early down situations to keep them behind the chains. So it is a strength on strength matchup which. I think Oregon has the slight advantage because of Bo Nix, Bucky Irving and Troy Franklin.
But traveling to Rice Eccles is no small task even for Bo Nix who has the most starts in CFB history after last week. Even with all those starts Bo Nix has shown that he has had his moments to turn the ball over on the road.
So if this Utah defense can get some stops, gets the crowd really involved this may be a long day for the ducks.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
After looking at this game, especially with it being at Rice Eccles I like the under. Game profiles well for an under. Both teams are not playing at breakneck speed, this Oregon team is very methodical and Utah wants to run the ball.
I think both defenses should have success at stopping the opposing offenses as well. Oregon can gameplan for this Utah offense and force Barnes to beat them which I think limits their ability to move the ball and even if they are able to move the ball they are dreadful at scoring touchdowns and have a solid field goal kicker that they can rely on. Meaning this could be a ton of field goals this game.
I think this Utah defense will feed off the great energy from Rice Eccles and give this Oregon offense some troubles. And when this Oregon offense does find success they will be longer drives which will burn some clock. I do like Utah getting the 7 because of how crazy Rice Eccles will be in a lower scoring game.
If this was at night, forget about it, mortgage on Utah ML. I do worry that if Utah gets behind here though that they might have to abandon the run game which i don't think bodes well for them. But I lean towards Utah with the 7, 6.5 makes it a little tougher.
Bet: Oregon/Utah U 48 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet)
Never a doubt that the USC defense would let a Lowes salesman into the endzone. Just spectacular
Ohio State vs Wisconsin (Ohio State -14, O/U 43.5 7:30PM NBC)
So weird that NBC now has college games that aren’t Notre Dame anymore.
As long as I don't see that nepo-baby Jac Collinsworth I’ll be happy to watch this game. Kid stinks.
But let’s talk about this game because this could be interesting. Ohio State comes off that win where I think if any of us heard another “MASERATI MARV” call from Gus Johnson we would have put our heads through the TV. I think he is the best player in college football and has a potential to be an all time great in the NFL but can we come up with another nickname for the kid. The execs at Fox won’t stop it so you know we will hear that come Thanksgiving saturday when they face the Michigan Sign Stealers.
Now the Wisconsin team is in a tough spot. With Iowa losing last week they still have a chance to win the Big 10 West. They will probably need a little help for Iowa losing again which is possible, but they lost their starting QB in Tanner Mordecai. They were able to survive the Illini last week but this Ohio State team is another animal. Now the game is in Camp Randall which is always a tough place to play and you hope that the badgers can keep this close so Jump Around in the 4th quarter gives buddy boy Kyle McCord a little tingle down his spine.
When Ohio State has the ball
If you take away “Maserati Marv” from the Ohio State offense last week they probably lose that game. He was the difference in the game.
I was glad that Ryan Day may have gotten the memo from #dickspicks that if you get the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr good things happen. And I know it's crazy but 11 catches may still not be enough. I still think you can get the guy the ball more. If he is single coverage, throw him the ball. Sometimes football is a simple game. If teams don't want to double him or put coverage over the top, give him the ball.
So that's the biggest question for me. Ohio State still has not been great running the ball and for the most part their success on offense has been whether or not McCord can complete enough passes to keep the chains moving.
However, this Wisconsin defense has shown that they have had their moments at struggling against the run. Giving up 200 yards on the ground to Iowa, Illinois and Purdue is never great. So I think Ohio State should have some more success on the ground than what they have done but in the end the question is can you guard the pass against Ohio State. Looking at the numbers it appears that they should be okay.
But are the numbers a little misleading?
Not exactly like Purdue, Buffalo, Rutgers, Iowa & Illinois are exactly slinging the rock around well that effectively. The competent passing offenses that they have played are Wazzu, before they fell off a cliff, and surprisingly Georgia Southern. And against both of these teams they actually fared pretty well. So they should do okay.
In the back of my head though they haven’t seen anything like weapons that Ohio State has so how do they match up? Figure that Luke Fickell and his staff can scheme something up with Kyle McCord being so locked in on Marvin Harrison Jr. They can try to confuse him with some coverages and force somebody other than Marvin Harrison Jr to beat them. But if they can’t stop the run this will be a long game.
When Wisconsin has the ball
Now the one thing I have been impressed with is this Ohio State defense.
Last week they basically played a high school offense that had just learned about the forward pass but that was still impressive nonetheless and the numbers back it up for their season long performance. #7 in PPA, 23rd in Success Rate and #6 in explosiveness.
The one thing that you would like better from this team is more havoc from up front.
They have JT Tuimoloau who is a great talent that has shown his flashes but you would love to see that consistency more often.
This Wisconsin offense has to turn to its backup QB Braedyn Locke after the injury to Tanner Mordecai. And you look at last week he may not have started out last week all that great but after being down 21 to 7 he led his team to 18 points in the 4th which is impressive for his first start.
This Ohio State defense is nothing like the Illinois defense which has struggled this year.
Now, although Penn State didn’t have any moments of success, the limited ones that they did have were on the ground. And RB Braelon Allen is no slouch so I think if this Wisconsin offense can get some push and ease Braedyn Locke to ease into this game at home they have a chance.
If they can’t establish the run I think this profiles as a very long game for this Wisconsin offense that really lacks explosiveness and that big play ability.
Handicap
I think where I lean the most in this game is the 1H under. I see this being a potential sleepy spot for this Ohio State team.
Even if they aren’t, they have been a first half under team. In the last 4 the 1H under has hit for Ohio State. I think part of that is because this defense has been very solid and it has taken a little while for this offense to get going.
The only game that was an exception for the offense was against Purdue. And even in that game the defense played well and it was 21 to 0 at halftime. I think Wisconsin should be very amped up for this game and it should be a crazy environment in Camp Randall. I think this defense should get a couple stops early and try to establish the run game early. While I write this the number is 22.5 so I’m hoping for a 23/24 to pop and then will bet it.
As for the side, I would lean Wisconsin. Wisconsin should be up for this game and could get a sleepy Ohio State. I’m just worried that if this Ohio State defense plays up to their potential they can easily hold this offense without their starting quarterback to a low number which means that this Ohio State team doesn’t have to score much to cover.
Bet: Ohio State/Wisconsin 1H U 23.5 -118 Win 1u (DraftKings)
If Wisconsin sees Marv in the endzone doing the Saquon it’s going to be a long day in Madison
Best of the Rest
Penn State -31 -108 Win 1u (DraftKings) (Indiana vs Penn State 12PM CBS)
This is ugly but this is simple for me. Penn State got embarrassed, they have to start figuring out stuff on offense and they have to start moving the ball. I don’t see Franklin letting off the gas pedal at any point. All reps are so crucial for this offense to gain some momentum and rhythm. Indiana is actually ok but this is a bad spot for them. I also think James Franklin is aware of the spread and if there is any doubt of covering he will make sure they cover it. It’s simply a take it out on an inferior opponent type of game and keep hitting them while they are down, on repeat. I wouldn’t be shocked if Indiana doesn’t score here and State Penn gets to 35 or 38 here. I could be completely wrong on the motivation here but I think this is a potential get right spot for this State Penn offense.
Cal TT O 27.5 -115 Win 1u (DraftKings) (USC vs Cal 4PM PAC12 Network)
I’ll keep screaming it from the rooftops but this USC defense is basura. They are just hot garbage. Just trash. So sometimes a handicap is not all that hard. Cal runs the ball very well, USC defends the run very poorly. So not going to overthink this one. Cal had success against USC last year, a little bit different make up of this team compared to last year's team, but this Cal team should be up for this game. And on the other side, I have no idea what motivation this USC team has. Everything that they set out to do is basically out of reach. They would need a miracle to get into the PAC 12 championship, playoff chances are 0 and Caleb Williams will not repeat as the Heisman trophy winner. They have yet to figure out how to beat Utah, news flash, sometimes college football is about the culture and the guys you develop and not just getting 5 stars and trotting them out there. You would think after all the time Lincoln Reilly spent in Oklahoma having all the talent in the world he would start to figure that out. But clearly that hasn’t changed one bit. If they come out and show up they could absolutely put it on this Cal team. But will they? I don't know if they care at all about this. Maybe there is some lookahead to Washington but I would not be all that shocked if Cal beat them here.
Washington 1H TT O 23.5 -125 Risk 1u (DraftKings) (Washington vs Stanford 7PM FS1)
Washington had a lackluster performance against an Arizona State team that was ready to play. And you could argue that Washington could have lost that game. Was a letdown spot after the great win against the ducks. So I’m going to get back on this Washington offense wagon. The Stanford defense is miserable. Does scare me a little that they have USC on deck but after USC’s performance last week I don’t think anybody is scared of them. They are pretty much out of the title race. Stanford might have one of the worst defenses in the country and they struggle mightily in standard downs which is where this Washington team eats people alive. I am a little scared that Washington may call off the dogs in the second half but I think we should get a good effort here. Even if we don’t get a touchdown on every drive the 23.5 gives us some wiggle room. I wouldn’t be shocked if they hang 28 or 35 in the first half.
UCLA -16.5 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers) (Colorado vs UCLA 7:30PM ABC)
I love this UCLA team. If the offense could ever figure it out I would take them to win the PAC 12 because the defense is tremendous. So again we are relying on the defense here and a solid run game to get us a cover. Colorado is off the bye week which is important to note but I think that with their upcoming schedule we will see that they were a flash in the pan early in the season. The biggest mismatch here is in the trenches. The UCLA defensive line is tremendous and should be able to eat up this Colorado offensive line. For as good as their skill position guys are, the offensive line is nowhere close to that. So I think they will get eaten alive here. I think it's similar to the Oregon game in all honesty. Shedeur will be running for his life and there will be some quick 3 and outs. And this Colorado defense is dreadful. Stanford is horrid and they gave up 40+ to them after not scoring in the first half. I’m confident that just running the ball here and then whoever is at quarterback makes some decent decisions. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is an ass kicking in the Rose Bowl. I was scared to take the Bruins last week at the same number against Stanford on the road but they absolutely throttled them. Love this UCLA team and am going to keep riding them. Also everybody is going to see Colorado getting 16.5 points and bet them, so it makes me feel a little better when you are on the opposite sides of these big spread public dogs.
Update: It appears that UCLA’s starting QBs are in limbo and there is some uncertainty who will start. Line has moved down. Don’t care who plays QB for this team it's a bet on this defense.
Vanderbilt/Ole Miss O 63 -108 Win 1u (DraftKings) (7:30PM SEC Network)
Vanderbilt is a perfect 8 and 0 to the over this year and we are going to keep riding this train. The defense is horrific and the offense is scrappy and hits some big plays in the passing game with some solid WRs. Maybe a little sleepy spot here for Ole Miss with A&M on deck but I think they sleep walk themselves to 42 or 45 here. Jaxon Dart has been very good all year and this offense is legit. Weapons all over the place but Dart is the one that really makes it go. Vanderbilt relies on the big play and this Ole Miss team struggles with the big play. I think if we get a solid 21 to 24 points from the ‘dores here we should be in good shape.
Cincy +7 -108 Win 1u (BetRivers) (Cincy vs Oklahoma State 8PM ESPN2)
Perfect buy low sell high spot with these two teams. Cincy has been awful in their past couple games but if you look at the numbers they are just some unfortunate results. The pokes have figured out that they need to rely on the run with Ollie Gordon. Just a tremendous performance last week. 200+ on the ground with 4 touchdowns is just tremendous. But this may be peak Oklahoma State. Cincinnati has what it takes to match on the ground with DT Dontay “The GodFather” Corleone, a spectacular nickname. So I think this is a good spot and Oklahoma State’s defense struggles against explosive plays which is the one decent part of this Cincy offense. Wouldn’t be surprised if Cincy gets an outright victory here. And you know what is next week for Oklahoma State, Oklahoma. Might be the last bedlam we have in quite sometime so may be some overlook as well.
Arizona +3.5 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers) & Arizona TT O 26.5 -125 Risk 1u (DraftKings) (PAC 12 AFTER DARK 10:30PM ESPN)
Arizona has been playing tremendous football the past couple weeks. They whacked Wazzu which was an impressive performance on the Palouse and they probably should have beat USC. So this team is rolling. A little worried that I am buying at their highest point, but let's ride. This Oregon State team is still good. But they aren't the same team away from home. Corvallis is a tough spot to play. Away from home the defense has struggled. They gave up 40 to Cal and 38 to Wazzu which looks worse and worse as the weeks go along. So I think this Arizona team with QB Noah Fofita who has looked amazing should have some success against this defense that struggles against the pass. Don’t know if anybody will stay up but the Arizona WRs are tremendous. Jacob Cowling is a little lightning rod and Tetairoa Mcmillan is a former 5 star monster at 6’5” that can jump with the best of them. McMillan has a little Mike Evans in, throw the ball up within a 5 yard radius and he's coming down with it. This Oregon State team also struggles with the run and Arizona has a bunch of bowling balls that love contact and delivering the blow so I think they will have some success there as well. The Arizona defense doesn’t have the advantages that this offense will have but I think that the 3 is too many here for an up and coming Arizona team. I think it's an over game but will most likely target Arizona’s TT if there is a nice football number out there.
These lines smell a little fishy….
So what do we do……
Bet em
Nevada -105 ML Win 1u (FanDuel) (New Mexico vs Nevada 10:30PM CBS Sports Network)
These two games are late night and I KNOW nobody will be watching this one. Especially this dumpster fire in Nevada. When a team that is 1-6 is hosting a team that is 3-4 and the 1-6 team is a favorite it's just a principle that you bet on the gross team. This may be the ugliest team in America in all honesty. They stink ain't no doubt about it. But sometimes when people zig you have to zag. 94% of the tickets are UNM and it makes sense. This UNM has a pretty decent offense and has won some games. They are coming off a good performance on the island and traveling back to play against lowly Nevada. You wonder how the body clocks are as well as the motivation. The defense is horrendous so maybe Nevada can score some points. Or at least thats what im hoping for else #dickpicks at 1am is going to be a say puppy watching miserable Mountain West Football.
Fresno State -7.5 -105 Win 1u (FanDuel) (UNLV vs Fresno State 10:30PM FS1)
Another one of those fishy lines. I really hate that both of these games are late. Two 6 and 1 teams and Fresno is favored by 7.5 and UNLV has been great. When I wrote this it was 7.5, now it's up to 9.5. I think this Fresno team is a class above this UNLV team and will meet their test in the valley. QB Mikey Keane is back for Fresno State which will help this offense. I think this Fresno defense will be up for the challenge vs UNLV and shows up in the valley. Very trappy line and I will stay away from the cheese.
Lets cover some bar tabs today!
-Nick Leone
