Dick’s Picks: Week 7 Recap
Photo by Steph Chambers from Getty Images
The Oregon and Washington game did not disappoint. Great game through and through.
All the drama that people needed and it went down to the wire. Huskies are now in the driver seat in the PAC 12 along with my guy Michael Penix Jr. for the Heisman. He had his heisman moment with that great throw to Rome Odunze for the game winning touchdown.
Oregon by no means is out of the playoff race. If they run the table and win the PAC 12 no way they don’t get into the playoff. Especially if Washington continues to handle business.
USC STINKS. Thank the dear lord I don't have to hear about these USC clowns anymore.
Actually funny looking at the box score. That domination that I expected from ND offense wasn’t the reason that ND won.
It was their defense that was incredible, 3 picks and 2 forced fumbles. Probably won’t be many times that Caleb Williams looks human but that was it. Interested to see how they finish out the year.
Real shame what the NCAA does with teams moving up to division 1.
James Madison is such a great story but they won't even be able to play in a bowl game or their conference championship. They are currently 6 and 0, I keep trying to fade them and that hasn’t worked at all. But they are the best team in the Sun Belt at the moment and they could potentially go undefeated and will not have any postseason games to show for it.
Big boys from the Big 10 handled their business. Michigan absolutely throttled Indiana and more shockingly Ohio State was super dominant against Purdue with a super sleepy spot as well as Penn State sealclubbing UMass. Franklin knew the spread and just wanted to run it up. Even in gross weather’s for all those games they still were able to assert their will and be super dominant.
Big Picture
The Round Robin for the Big 10 East Starts This week
State Penn travels to Ohio State this week. The battle for the big 10 will be between the big 3 of Michigan, Ohio State and State Penn. Winner of the big 10 east you have to imagine is autobid to the CFP. Could get a little interesting if they all kind of beat each other and then have 1 loss. Could be very hairy for the committee.
Michael Penix and Washington are now in the Driver's Seat
Micael Penix Jr now has a - sign next to his name for the Heisman. If he continues to play at a high level and even if they lose 1, I think it's his award to lose. The 18 to 1 preseason future is looking quite good. Along with this Washington Team. With beating Oregon they control their own destiny. Schedule is tough down the stretch but they have the horses to do it. Interested to see if they go undefeated or not. I think they probably lose 1 and then win the PAC 12 and get to the CFP.
The Dead Man Walking is now DEAD
USC got pumped in South Bend. And their schedule doesn't get any easier. They play Utah this week who may get Cam Rising back, Get Washington in a couple weeks, Washington may put up 100 on these guys and they still have Oregon and UCLA. So long way ahead. Have to wonder if this team loses again what their motivation is for the rest of the year.
Might be a darkhorse to make the CFP in Chapel Hill
UNC continues to handle business. They don't get FSU so there is a very real chance that they go into the ACC Championship with an undefeated record. Unfortunately I think if they lose to FSU their resume is not all that great but they control their own destiny to make it to the CPF
Betting Recap
Cumulative CFB Record 84-86-6 +1.17u
Saturday Record 7-10-1 -3.31u
RR 1 of 5 Correct -1u
Spread 1-4 -3.35u
TTs 2-2-1 +.46u
O/U 3-2 +.78u
Teasers 0-2 -2.2u
ML 1-0 +1u
What I hit on the head (Golf Clap)
The Irish: Now how it happened I did not expect. The ND stepped up big time and the result was what I expected. USC doesn't have the goods to be an elite team and until Lincoln Reilly starts recruiting some defensive studs it's going to be Oklahoma 2.0. They are eventually going to run into these teams that dominate them in the trench and they have no answer for it. Eventually you have to be able to play some defense to win a national championship.
Pitt +8: Pitt had been horrendous but they always win the game they shouldn’t. And it was this one. Maybe putting your QB at tight end and playing somebody else was the move. Was definitely a bet on the spot for Louisville and they didn’t play their “A” game and we got a nice effort from this Pitt team.
And what went WRONG
Fading the Big 10 East Beasts: Thought weather or some lookahead spots would maybe trip up the big 3. Was wrong on all 3 and it wasn’t really even close. Ohio State thumped Purdue, Michigan manhandled Indiana and Penn State embarrassed UMass. 3 losers with those ones.
UCLA +4: This one stung because UCLA actually outgained Oregon State. The issue was the turnovers with Dante Moore. Just absolutely brutal. That Oregon State defense is still not good And they will struggle with Washington & Oregon on their upcoming schedule
Looking ahead
Season Early Bet Record 15-6-1+8.24u
Last Week Early Bets 2-0 +.2u
Notre Dame ML -112 (Win) (Closed at -145)
Oregon/Washington O 68.5 -112 (Win) (Closed at 67)
Bets I have already made
State Penn +5.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel)
Little scared that this is going to be the public dog of the week with the public narrative that Ohio State stinks. But this defense is sensational and they have the talent in the backend to slow down these. NFL talent all over the place. Think this may be their coming out party on a national stage since this will be the game of the week. The issue is whether or not this offense can get it going. The Ohio State defense has been pretty good this year. They have been susceptible against the run so you hope that State Penn can establish the run and then get Drew Allar some easy throws to build his confidence. He hasn’t been all that great this year. Think this profiles as an under game as well. Just going to try and find the best number throughout the week.
Tennessee/Alabama U 48 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet)
This Tennessee team is a little different than last year's team. This defense is improved and they love to run the rock. Part of that is because of the struggles with Joe Milton and their stable of running backs. And like great coaches do you adapt to your personnel. The Alabama defense struggles against the explosive play but that is not this Tennessee offense is not dependent on that and nor do they make those plays. Tennessee's defense has been pretty good this year. Now they do struggle with the explosive play which is where Alabama thrives with Milroe throwing the ball deep. So if they can tighten that up I think it's a rock fight and similar to what the Texas A&M game was.
South Carolina/Mizzou O 58.5 -115 Win 1u (FanDuel)
This Mizzou team is really growing on me. The offense is great and the defense has actually been okay. I don’t think this offense gets enough love from a national perspective. I’ll say his name again but Luther BUrden is probably the best player in the country that people don’t know enough about. And this South Carolina defense is nothing special. Just gave up 41 to Graham Mertz away from the swamp. So I think the Mizzou offense will have some success here. And South Carolina is an explosive offense which is what Mizzou struggles with so I think there will be some success from them as well. Wouldn’t be all that shocked if you get a shootout here.
Army/LSU O 58.5 -115 Win 1u (FanDuel)
Back to riding the horse. I doubted the LSU over last week and they decided to hang 48 themselves. Don’t think this Army defense is going to slow down this LSU offense in the swamp. Jayden Daniels really needs to get more love for the Heisman. And this isn't your mother’s Army team. Still running the triple option but throwing the ball more. Think we probably need 14 to 21 from Army to get this cover. And this is a weird offense to prep for before going into the bye week. So like over. Going to ride this train till it falls apart. Interested to see what the number will be with Alabama in a couple weeks.
Cheers,
-Nick Leone
