Dick’s Picks: Week 7 Primer
Photo by Troy Wayrynen from USA Today Sports
Hello Friends,
Tailgating and going to the game in Ann Arbor on saturday so getting this out earlier. Game of the year candidate with Washington/Oregon and a nice way to finish the day with the night slate. Going to be miserable miserable weather here in Ann Arbor so I'm hoping these games make up for that. AND HERE WE GO!
Bet Record for Big Games (21-14-2 +8.02u, O/Us 9-3-1 +5.15u, Spreads 10-5-1 +4.64u, TTs 3-6 -2.72u, ML 1-0 +1.03u)
Last Week (6-2 +3.72u 🔥🔥🔥, O/Us 2-1 +.9u, Spreads 3-0 + 3u, TTs 1-1 -.18u)
“Fox Big Noon” Game
Indiana vs Michigan (Michigan -33, O/U 45.5, 12PM Fox)
Admittedly I try to spread the love over all the slates but Saturday is not one of those slates. The early slate is so weak. No ranked matchups and all the ranked teams’ games don't have a spread lower than 17 to 18. I haven’t written up Michigan yet and will be at this game. Hopefully my fiance doesn’t get too close to Urban Meyer or I might be flying home by myself. I don’t think she would love him trying a reach around on her at a college bar but you never know. Urban Meyer starts talking about the glory days about a murderer, a racist and a bible thumper heisman winner and it's an instant panty dropper.
Michigan has been one of the most statistically dominant teams in the country and the numbers back it. I still think I need to see them actually play a team that actually has a pulse but they are handling business and it's been very impressive. 11/11, make a wish, will be when they finally get tested against the beloved Sandusky discples from State Penn. Until then it will be a walk in the park. It won’t be whether they win, it will be whether they cover these monster spreads or not. Maybe Michigan State throws the kitchen sink and makes the game super feisty but they are horrible.
After last week’s performance against Minnesota on the road it's very hard to not just take this Michigan team against the spread. And to me it's not necessarily because of the offense but more so the defense.
Now, I think the defense is elite but it also hasn’t hurt that statistically the best offense they have played is UNLV this year. Yes UNLV, the running rebs from LAS VEGAS. And you know what, Indiana might be the worst offense that they will play this year. To put in perspective there are 134 Division 1 football teams. Indiana’s PPA and Success Rate are 123rd & 124th in the country respectively. So to say that this offense is atrocious is an insult to the word atrocious. They had to go to overtime against an Akron team that is horrid and should have lost that game. Akron just gave up 55 to NIU who lost to a FCS team this year. If you had me calling out the Southern Illinois Salukis on your bingo go you won because that's who NIU lost too. But I digress, this offense is horrible. And looking at the numbers there is nothing to really exploit on this Michigan defense. The one thing that maybe you can exploit is the explosive play. But I think the reason that number is so poor is because the play has to be deemed to be “successful” in order to possibly get an explosive rating. Meaning that if it's 1st and 10 you have to gain 5 yards or more to be an explosive play. So if you are just stuffing the shit out of teams and they have one big play then the numbers may be inflated. But that doesn’t matter here because Indiana doesn’t have any explosiveness to their offense anyway. The 1H TT is 0.5 so you are betting them to not score. A little scary but a very realistic possibility with this Michigan defense and potential weather in Ann Arbor.
Now on the offensive side this might be the biggest part of the handicap. Can Indiana stop or at least slow down this offense? From just looking at box scores they may have the potential too. Ohio State isn’t that great offensively but they still held them to 23 points and they held an explosive Louisville offense to 21 points.
But their most recent outing against Maryland was less than impressive.
They just got diced up for 8.3 yards per play and it was pretty effortless for Taulia and the Terps. Now that was in the air for the majority and this Michigan attack will be different but still not a great omen. The one thing that Indiana is decent at is defending explosiveness and their DBs have been disruptive in the passing game. Obviously last week was not great but they rank top 15 in the country in the backend havoc created. But Michian isn’t explosive and they are just a super efficient and methodical offense. Just stay ahead of the chains and keep them moving. This Indiana team is coming off a bye so there is an extra week to prepare after that thumping in College Park so you would like to think that you get a decent effort out of the defense.
From a handicap perspective the spread and total are pretty spot on. If you like the over you are banking on Michian just absolutely thumping Indiana and getting very close to covering the number themselves. If you like the under you think that this Indiana defense gets enough stops. But one thing that is always important with totals is the weather. It's expected to be 14 mph winds with some rain. So it makes me want the under. Indiana doesn’t allow explosive plays and it should just be a ground and pound game. The only thing is that Indiana is not all that great at defending the run. I think with a perfect crisp fall day in Ann Arbor this Michigan team probably puts up 42 to 45 and I think this goes over. With the rain and the wind I think that changes this game plan for Michigan just run the clock and bleed. The under is taking some pro money so wish i got it on open but i’ll take the 47.5. Think this will close around 45 or so. And since I'm going to the game we might not see the second half depending on the weather.
Note, Bet 1 is my actual pick. Bet 2 and on is because I’m at the game and want a little extra juice. I will count towards the total record but not towards the big game record.
Bet 1: Indiana/Michigan U 47.5 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)
Bet 2: Michigan 1H TT O 21 -130 Risk 1u (Fanatics)
Bet 3: Michigan 1H -17.5 -154 Risk 1u (FanDuel)
Bet 4: Indiana 1H TT U 0.5 Win .5u (Fanatics)
#dickspicks and Stevie Heaters are back on their BS. Win or Lose we still booze. Watch out Ann Arbor
Midday Slate
Oregon vs Washington (Washington -3, O/U 67 330PM ABC)
Boy oh boy am I excited for this one.
So much on the line for this game. The winner of this game has the inside track to the PAC 12 championship as well as a potential CFP berth. Looks like the weather should hold up with only a little overcast in the pacific northwest which is great. Both teams are off a bye meaning both teams are rested, they should have their best game plans and should be all systems go with both teams. This has the potential to be a game of the year candidate if both teams hold up their end of the bargain.
The Washington offense has been nothing short of spectacular this season. #1 offense in the country and in my opinion I think they are a step above everybody. Penix is now the frontrunner to win the Heisman and everything is clicking. They have the deepest receiving core in the country and some nice complimentary parts in the backfield and at tight end as well. But this offense goes as Michael Penix Jr. goes. To say he has been sensational is an understatement. He is the definition of video game stats. 75% Completion rate, 1999 yards and a 16 to 2 TD to INT ratio. You can’t do much better through the first 5 games of the season.
Now, have they exactly played the best competition? No, but I don't care who you are playing, you are throwing for 400 yards per game and there are times when he isn’t playing in the 4th quarter. I was high on this offense and this team going into the year and took a sprinkle on them to make the playoffs and those numbers keep moving in the direction I want to see them go. The schedule is tough but they control their own destiny.
Now, this Oregon defense they are playing is great statistically but it might be one of these deals where who have they exactly played. They shutdown Colorado, which was impressive but I think that was more with the spot and exposing Colorado’s offensive line. They have also played Stanford, Hawaii, Portland State and Texas Tech.
Now the one game they struggled and should have lost was that Texas Tech game. I still have nightmares about how Oregon covered that game.
But I think you have to look at that game as something more similar to what Oregon will get in this Washington offense. It’s on the road in a crazy environment which it will be in Seattle and Texas Tech profiles similarly with that throw it around yard mentality. But what Texas Tech was able to do great was run the football. Texas Tech ran for 175 yards which is crazy to say but it was still very impressive.
Now, does Washington want to run the ball? Not really. They want to throw the ball around the yard but they still have had success running the ball this year. So if there are some struggles with the pass I think they can have some success in the run game.
Where Texas Tech killed themselves was the turnovers. Their QB Shough was not careful with the football and absolutely killed some positive momentum that Texas Tech had.
Does Penix do that? No. But this will be the best defense line they face all year so we will see how this offensive line holds up. I think the week off a prep helps this Oregon defense but until I see it with my own eyes I don't see this Washington team getting under 35 especially at home.
Now just as the Washington offense should get some praise, so should this Oregon offense. Bo Nix has been tremendous this year as well with a 15 to 1 TD/INT ratio. Anything this offense has wanted to do this year they have been able to do. They have been great at throwing the ball and running the ball. And unlike the Oregon defense that has great stats but may be overinflated this Washington defense doesn’t share those similar stats. Which is a little concerning considering they haven’t played any really good competition till Arizona two weeks ago.
Where they struggled is stopping the run, which is concerning against this Duck offense which has a set of good backs that they can cycle in and they still have some of the offensive line pieces that Cristobal recruited up in his time at Eugene. There were also questions about this Washington defense coming into the year and they haven’t been tested yet either. So this has the potential if Oregon can establish the run to be a long day for the Huskies defense.
I will admit my bias being a very pro Washington supporter this year and not the biggest Bo Nix fan. So I will try to stay away from the side in this game and target the total. I bet this number as soon as it came out and saw that it was dropping so I bought out and then bought at a lower number. So I will be on the over.
But I will give fair warning that there is a ton of sharp money on the under.
And I will say I understand why.
There is so much hype for both of these offenses which is deserved but both teams having a bye week to prep should help both D-Coordinators develop a thorough gameplan on how to stop these offenses. There is plenty of tape out there as well to study their tendencies and what not. And I think another part of this comes from the potential game plan that Oregon may want to stick to. Oregon should be confident that they can run the ball on this Washington team. And how do you keep this Washington offense at bay? You don’t let them have the ball and you limit their possessions. You limit the possessions and maybe put some pressure on Penix that he hasn’t seen this year. So that is something definitely lingering somewhere in that peanut on stick in my cranium. They also played last year and the game was 37 to 34 but you needed 31 points in the 3rd to get that score to where it ended. Or else it was a pretty pedestrian game. So both defenses have shown that they can stop each other and they should be improved from last year.
However, with all of this info in the back of my head I’m not going to watch the potential game of the year and root for great defense. Similar to the Red River Shootout Over that I had last week this is a bet of principle. Probably should have lost that bet, it took some crazy turnovers and a crazy last minute drive from OU to cash that.
But, it’s two great offenses and I’m not parking my ass in a bar or wherever I will be for this game to not watch fireworks. Two legit Heisman candidates and two great offenses so be praying that we get some fireworks and what this game is hyped up to be. I also think we get a game closer to when Texas Tech and Oregon played but with some more scoring because of how elite these offenses are.
As for the side, I'm going to stay away and not double down on my Washington future. I do think based on everything that the game favors Oregon.
Oregon’s defense has the edge over this Washington defense, or at least that is what this early season analytics have indicated and potentially Oregon’s ability to run the ball and control the clock is an advantage that they have.
And there is some revenge from last year.
Washington was a 12 point dog last year in Oregon and they had scored 10 points in the final 5 minutes to shock them. BUT, I think the one thing people have to remember is that Bo Nix is a totally different player on the road than at home. It should be bumping in Seattle with that unreal tailgate scene on the water and the environment should be electric. Probably the biggest game Washington football has hosted since the Jake Browning days and them making the CFP. So I think that is something you have to factor in as well. But I think the line is spot on and it may be a game where whoever has the ball last wins this game.
Bet 1: Oregon/Washington O 67 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet)
Bet 2: Washington TT O 34.5 -127 Risk 1u (BetRivers)
Best believe with these unis we are getting some points
Under the Lights
USC vs Notre Dame (ND -2.5, O/U 60, 730PM NBC)
I’m going to be honest here, this might be a reputation game for me. I have talked SO MUCH TRASH about this USC defense and have continued to say that this game vs ND is the opportunity for them to finally get exposed. Not that Colorado a couple weeks ago didn’t show that or Arizona last night with PAC 12 after dark, but they have yet to lose. And this might be the prime opportunity for these frauds from LA to finally lose.
I wrote this up earlier in the week when talking about this game but I think the Notre Dame loss is not something to over exaggerate about. It was a terrible spot for them. Having played two super emotional games the weeks prior and then having USC on deck was a recipe for disaster. And that game in Louisville was a disaster. It was the worst Sam Hartman and that offense had played all year and at times they looked lost.
But I think this is a great opportunity for this offense to regroup and flex their muscles this week.
I have talked about this so much but this USC defense is a wet paper towel.
They are abysmal.
They are TERRIBLE against the run. They are bottom 100 defense at defending the run. And you know Notre Dame likes to do and what they are good at it? RUN THE DAMN ROCK.
So I think Notre Dame just bludgeons them on the ground and then opens up some great opportunities with play action to have some big chunk plays.
And is USC any good at defending explosive plays? NOPE. I really think if USC and LSU played the O/U for that game would be potentially 84. But I really think Notre Dame should have a ton of success.
As for the USC offense. I can’t talk any trash about them.
Caleb Williams is unbelievable and if you take him off this team they are probably a .500 team at the end of the year.
But the big question here is can the ND defense slow down this USC offense.
The ND defense has a great secondary which should help a ton here. By having that reliability in the back end I think it allows for Marcus Freeman and this defense to contain Caleb Williams.
What makes Caleb Williams so incredible is his ability when the play breaks down to create these incredible plays and make it a backyard football game. If it turns into one of those games then I don't know if this Notre Dame defense is going to hold up their end of the bargain.
The one thing that Arizona showed last week to slow down this offense is throwing so many looks at Caleb Williams to try and confuse him for at least the time being. And they did. They were able to hold them to a shutout in the first quarter which is an amazing feat in itself. So I think there is something there that Notre Dame can replicate.
But I think the one thing that is so crucial when you have a QB as great as Caleb Williams is are you able to generate pressure with only 4 guys so you can force him to beat you with methodical drives and having a bunch of guys defending the pass to limit those big plays. And what I have seen from the numbers from Notre Dame this year is not all that great with creating those plays for losses whether it be in the running game or passing game. So I do think USC will have some success but confident that Marcus Freeman and his staff can be creative on the defensive side to confuse Caleb Williams for at least some drives and then contain the big play and make them beat them with 8 to 10 play drives.
Don’t think this is going to be any surprise here but I am on the Fighting Irish.
When the line opened up, I was hoping they would be plus odds, it wasn’t and I only knew the line was going to climb. I got a cheap ML price which I was happy about. A ton of really respected money is on the Irish on Saturday night.
I think Notre Dame comes out here wanting to make a statement and absolutely maul this Charmin soft defense. Think they take all the doubt from last week and what happened and use it to their advantage.
Not to say USC wont be motivated but I think Notre Dame has a slightly different motivational angle for this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if Notre Dame gets up to 250/300 yards rushing and just eats this d-line alive. I am really going to have to eat some shorts if this Notre Dame offense doesn't absolutely blitz this USC defense but I am confident that Notre Dame will get it going here. You always have to be scared when you bet against the best player in college football but I think Notre Dame has a recipe here to beat this USC team. Run the football and play ball control, limit the possessions that USC can get, potentially get an early lead, keep your foot on the pedal and force Caleb Williams to be as uncomfortable as he can be. Caleb Williams really doesn’t get uncomfortable but you have to try your best to frustrate him.
The key will be if Notre Dame has a lead going into half if they can continue to run the ball score and drain clock. Like I said above with the potential Oregon game plan. The best way to keep these elite offenses off the field is to not let them have the ball.
So if Notre Dame has multiple 6 to 10 minute drives imposing their will on the offense line this will line up well for them and it’s why I think Notre Dame ends up on top here.
As for the total. I think it's really tough.
With the idea that Notre Dame wants to run the rock, bleed clock and ball control I would probably lean to the under. The only problem is that Notre Dame might not meet much resistance with their running game and might be able to score in quicker manner than they may want to or expect to. And an under is never done with Caleb Williams in a game. I will be the Notre Dame TT O because of my feelings about this USC defense and if I get something around 31 or under that.
Bet 1: ND ML -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)
Bet 2: ND TT O 30.5 -130 Risk 1u (DraftKings)
Does this handsome fella look like he is losing to USC? I think not.
Miami vs UNC (UNC -3.5, O/U 56.5, 730PM ABC)
If Miami doesn’t have that horrific loss last week this may have competed with Washington/Oregon for the biggest game of the week with most CFP implications. But Mario Cristobal and his staff decided that they didn’t want to win that game and threw it all away.
The scariest part about it is it’s not the first time that something similar has happened.
In Oregon he was in a very similar position. Less than a minute left with the opposing team having no timeouts. They ran it, fumbled it against Stanford and then lost in OT when they could have kneed the ball. You would think he would learn but clearly not.
And on the other side North Carolina comes in looking great. They just thumped Syracuse, it was without their starting QB, but Drake Maye looked great and this offense is picking up some momentum after scoring 41 against Pitt and 40 against ‘Cuse.
So I think the natural inclination is to take UNC in this game.
But the biggest thing in gambling is not to overreact to one result one way or another. It’s hard to not overreact to such a terrible loss but you need to look at the body of work to get the full picture.
Perfect example was Georgia Tech last week. They lost to Bowling Green of all teams and then what to do they do the week after? They beat a top 20 team in their house as a 21 point dog.
Even if Cristobal isn’t a moron they still easily cover 21 and were leading for part of the game.
So let's examine Miami’s full season.
From an offensive perspective they have been excellent. 7th in PPA and 11th in success rate in the country. Not necessarily the most explosive team in the country but they sure as hell can run the rock and keep the chain moving and prior to last week they were great at limiting turnovers.
Now last week was disgusting with Van Dyke throwing 3 picks. But all their other games the offense has been fantastic. Now not necessarily against any great defenses. Except one, Texas A&M.
They absolutely thumped Texas A&M and A&M has held serve as a top 25 defense in the country. They were able to beat A&M with the pass. Now North Carolina actually profiles decently against the pass and the explosive play but where they struggle is against the run. And Miami has been great running the ball.
Mario Cristobal has started to develop that offensive line and it has become apparent. So I think with that success running the football they can ease Tyler Van Dyke into this game and have some success on the offensive end. Along with the fact that North Carolina gave up over 200 yards to an App State a couple weeks prior. North Carolina’s defense has always been the weak part of this team and has really limited them from getting to the place they should have in prior seasons with how much talent they have had on the offensive side of the ball.
When I first saw the North Carolina offensive numbers I was kind of surprised.
With Drake Maye and some of the talent on the outside I was shocked to see they weren’t a top 25 offense. They have been great at keeping Drake Maye upright and not turning the ball over which is not shocking but the actual production is a little behind what I expected. Now the past two weeks have started to push these numbers up against 2 top 50 defenses in Syracuse and Pittsburgh which gives me optimism. And this has been a common theme with alot of these teams early in the season who have you played. The Miami defensive stats are great but who have they played anybody other than.. Texas A&M. And as said above that game was a shootout. Miami definitely outplayed them but still allowed 33 points. And this North Carolina offense in my opinion is better and it was all through the air giving up 336 passing yards. Miami has been pretty good at stuffing opponents rushing attacks but that is not what North Carolina excels at. I think North Carolina wants to establish the run to open up the pass game but if the run game is not there they can always rely on Drake May to make plays. So I think North Carolina should have some success through the air.
Both of these teams have been in games that I would classify as shootouts. North Carolina with App State, where they got run all over, and Miami with Texas A&M where they gave up a fair share through the air.
So I'm taking the over here.
The North Carolina stats are a little alarming on offense with how good this offense should be but I think this will be a great opportunity for North Carolina to have a good showing on national television.
As for the side I lean Miami. And I will probably be on an island after last week’s performance.
I think people are down on them after last week's loss so it might be a good buy low opportunity on this team. There is a possibility that this team just quits on Cristobal after the coaching decisions of last week, but I think they will get up for this game. The thing that does scare me though is that this is their first high profile road game this year. They played against Temple on the road, we don’t count that as anything special though. But this does have an eerily similar situation to ‘21 Season with Van Dyke. They lost to Virignia at home and then had to go to UNC as a dog for their first true road game and it was a shootout and a 3 point game. UNC has seemed to have Miami’s number in recent memory so this will definitely be an uphill battle in Chapel Hill. I will wait to see if there is any push on this North Carolina line and see if I can get a 4. Seems like the trap line of the week with all the hype behind North Carolina and the performance that Miami just had.
Bet 1: Miami/North Carolina O 56.5 -108 Win 1u (FanDuel)
Bet 2: Miami +3.5 -115 Win 1u (Fanatics)
UCLA vs Oregon State (Oregon State -3.5, O/U 54.5 8PM FOX)
Oregon State comes off a great offensive output against Cal on the road in a potentially sleepy spot with a look ahead to this game, DJ U led the way with 5 TD passes but a little concerning that this defense gave up 40 to Cal.
And on the other side UCLA probably had one of the more impressive performances of the year from a defensive perspective. Nobody has been able to stop the Wazzu offense and they manhandled them.
The score of 25 to 17 was not indicative of how dominant the performance was on the defensive end.
Dante Moore threw a pick 6 to end the half to inflate UCLA’s score. But they held the Wazzu team to 216 yards and forced 4 turnovers. Thoroughly impressive. Little pat on the back for the handicap with UCLA last week saying that the defensive line would change the game and Cam Ward wouldn’t be superman. I think that was apparent. But it’s a new week and winning a bet last week doesn’t mean anything for this week.
Building off of the UCLA defense, I was thoroughly impressed by their performance and think this is something they can build on. DC D’Anton Lynn who was hired from the Ravens has been fantastic. I didn’t know if their statistical dominance was for real prior last week, but clearly it’s legit. It was a known commodity that this defensive line would be very talented but for them to handle Cam Ward and shut down the run and pass is something to hang your hat on. The UCLA defense has been great at stopping both the run and pass which was shown last week. But I think this Oregon State running attack is a little different.
There is no finesse and it's a bruising run game which has been great the past couple years and this is what Oregon State has built their program on. But looking at the numbers they haven’t been as elite of the bruisers as I thought they would be. I would expect this team to have very highly ranked in statistics that would indicate your offensive line is creating a good initial push. And their Power Success Rate, how well you are able convert 3rd or 4th and 2, Stuff rate, how often you are gaining no yards or being stopped behind the line, and line yards, which is how many of the first yards are you gaining on your runs, are not up to snuff.I thought with the personnel that this UCLA defense has with these great athletic pass edge rushers or DEnds that they would be great rushing the passer but they are also great at stopping the run. They haven’t exactly played a great rushing attack yet but I am confident that they can take a step up in class to this Oregon State offensive line.
I don’t want to undersell this Oregon State offense because they have been very good this year. This has been a DJ U renaissance which is great after whatever the hell happened in Clemson last year. They have been able to stay ahead of the chains and be a super efficient offense and DJ U has flourished throwing 13TDs and 4 Ints on the young year.
But I think when they played against an elite defense, Utah so far this year, they haven’t been as dominant.
I think UCLA defense potentially may be better than Utah’s so it may be a tough day for DJ U and this beavs offense.
Now on the other side of the ball it's kind of funny because we expect the Chip Kelly teams to have tremendous offenses and then to be defense optional.
This year is a little different.
They have this uberly talented freshman QB in Dante Moore but he is still working out the kinks. They have relied on the defense early in the season and for the most part it has worked out. The offense hasn’t hit its stride yet but you can just see the talent oozing out of Dante Moore with some of the throws he is able to make. The Oregon State numbers actually look decent but when they have played against competent PAC 12 offenses they have struggled. Cam Ward and Wazzu shredded them and last week Cal ran all over them. Those performances were on the road but it's still a little concerning. While this UCLA offense hasn’t been great yet this may be an opportunity for this offense to have some success. Dante Moore has already had a start on the road so if UCLA can get this run game going which Cal showed is possible and it may allow for some easier throws for Dante Moore. The Oregon State’s worry coming into this season was their secondary which was exposed by Cam Ward, so you would like to think that Dante Moore’s potential can exploit this as well.
This bet for me is more on what the UCLA defense can do compared to the UCLA offense.
I think there is the potential for the UCLA offense to get it going because of the struggles that the Oregon State defense has had against real PAC 12 offenses. Maybe I am buying into this defense too much but I will take my chances. Corvallis is an underratedly tough spot to play so I wouldn't be all that shocked if Dante Moore has a little bit of struggle, but they can lean on this defense if he struggles.
As long as he doesn’t commit turnovers he should be alright.
I would lean under just for the simple fact that I think there might be some struggles to score but the over is backed by sharp money so I will stay away from that. Both defenses are top 30 in limiting opponents scoring opportunities so getting touchdowns may be tough. If the over hits this UCLA offense has to get it going so maybe that opportunity that I talked about above is something UCLA takes advantage of and finds a rhythm in this game.
Bet: UCLA +4 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet)
Best of the Rest 1u
Purdue 1H +11 -110 Win 1u (Fanatics) (12PM Peacock)
Purdue is hosting Ohio State and who do they play next week… Penn State. This game is such a lookahead spot in sleepy West Lafayette with an 11 o’clock kick. Ohio State has struggled in the first half this season and I don't know if it necessarily changes here. That Maryland score was not indicative of how poorly they played. There is the possibility that they want to really get things together but I think it potentially happens in the second half. Purdue has been that traditional spoiler. I don’t think they have the horses to compete for the full game but think they can give Ohio State a little scare in the first half.
Georgia TT O 44.5 -110 Win .5u (DraftKings) (12PM CBS)
This is a half unit bet just because it could be a very sleepy spot. But this Vandy defense is dreadful. The over has hit in all 7 games this year and they can’t stop anybody. If Georgia has a little focus here they should be able to put up an ugly number on them. Little different team but the past two years they have won 62 to 0 and 55 to 0. I think last week is something that kind of puts this Georgia team into gear. But I could be completely wrong and they could just be going through the motions until they play somebody who actually excites them. Will know right away if this is a winner or loser. Just get Brock Bowers the ball please.
Texas A&M/Tennessee U 56 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings) (330PM CBS)
I think if you saw this number without digging deeper into the numbers you would be shocked at how low this total is. But there is a reason why. Joe Milton has struggled this year, as some people expected, wink, wink was on their Win Total U. And they have been great on the ground. Milton has always struggled with his accuracy and I think part of the game plan is to now turn it over to the run game. And what is Texas A&M great at doing? Stopping the run. Last week they got toasted on deep balls from Jalen Milroe and I don't believe in Milton completing those plays. On the other side Texas A&M with Max Johnson was fine last week and I was surprised to see that Tennessee actually has some decent defensive numbers. I think going into Rocky Top country is not an easy task so I think this turns out to be a lower scoring game. The pace of Tennessee does scare me but I think this Texas A&M defense can have a very good performance against Tennessee.
UMass/State Penn U 56 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel) (330PM Big Ten Network)
Like I mentioned above Ohio State, State Penn has a lookahead spot as well. But this is a combination of the weather and how good this State Penn defense is. Just sensational. It’s supposed to be gross weather in Happy Valley and I’m going to be honest I don't know how UMass scores. Or if they can get past the 40 of State Penn in this game. With the weather being so gross I don't think Penn State will have a crazy game plan and it will be a lot of runs draining the clock. The spread is 41.5 and at this point which Franklin knows at so I wouldn’t be shocked if this game ends 42/45 to 0 and he then calls off the dogs. Perfect for an under in this case.
Pitt +8 -109 Win 1u (BetRivers) (630PM The CW….. WOOOOF)
I bet these bums earlier in the year after are a terrible loss and they absolutely shafted me. But this time I am betting on a letdown spot from Louisville. Great win against Notre Dame and now they have to travel to lowly pitt. Pitt is so bad that their QB just changed over to TE in the middle of the season. At one point the kid was going to be a top 3 round pick in the NFL. But oh how the times have changed. Pitt always wins a game that they shouldn't and this could be the one. It certainly wasn’t against UNC and I paid for it. But I think with the uncertainty of what to expect on offense and Pitt wanting to muck it up this could be an ugly game that has Louisville scoring a late touchdown or kicking a late field goal to win the game and getting out of dodge.
I apologize for not blindly betting the LSU over this week. I don’t believe in the Auburn offense and think their defense is actually good. So with that combination it makes it a little tricky. But this LSU defense can make anybody look good so I wouldn’t be surprised, I’m just not as confident as weeks prior when those games breezed over with no problem.
Lets cover some bar tabs today!
-Nick Leone
