Dick’s Picks: Week 7 Betting Primer

Just a kid in a candy store today. Doesn’t get much better than this slate. Have been absolutely dreadful gambling but you know what it days like that make you appreciate it all that much more. Let’s have a day. Will be at Maryland Live with the boys so hoping we can win some wagers live as well. HERE WE GO!

Follow on Twitter & Action Network @ Dicks_Picks_42

Bet Record for Big Games (13-10 +2.06u, 7-5 O/U +1.96u, 2-2 MLs -.32u, 3-0 TTs +2.77u, 1-3 Spread -2.35u)

Week 5: 1-4 -2.93u 

K State TT O 30.5 -115 (W)

Louisville/ND U 48.5 -115 (L)

State Penn -17.5 -108 (L)

Georgia 1H ML -115 (L)

Georgia/Bama 1H U 24 -110 (L)

#1 Texas vs #18 Oklahoma (Texas -15 O/U 49, 330PM ABC)

Preview

While we have lost some rivalries with conference realignment, luckily we still get the Red River Rivalry (can’t call it the “shootout” anymore). Last year's game was an absolute doozy with Oklahoma going the length of the field with Dylan Gabriel to win in the closing seconds. There was some really bad time management by Sark but have to tip your cap to Dylan Gabriel and company. Now Dylan Gabriel is gone and Oklahoma really thought that they were looking into the future with Jackson Arnold. And after 4 games that era has quickly subsided. I don’t think it's completely his fault since the offensive line has been so brutal but his poor decision making was put on full display when Tennessee came to town. They switched over to freshman QB Michael Hawkins who is a definitely different style QB. Much more of a scrambler, not necessarily your traditional pocket passer, and he will be running a ton more in this offense. They did beat Auburn with Hawkins under center, but it wasn't necessarily a convincing victory, Auburn was terrible at converting scoring opportunities and threw a pick 6 when they were driving to go up in the game. The offense against Auburn was inefficient and very reliant on the big play. Have to wonder if this is how this offense will function the rest of the year.

Handicap

Now while I did give a little background on what is going on with this Oklahoma team, this Texas team deserves their flowers. I was a little hesitant about them being #1 but after all the chaos that ensued last week I don’t think you can say that they aren’t the #1 team in the country. You could argue that Ohio State maybe deserves but Texas has left their state and played a competent opponent in Michigan. (But are they really?) 

Texas has been great on both sides of the ball. Even with Quinn Ewers out, Arch Manning stepped in and did a-ok. What has been a little surprising is them struggling to run the ball. Their rush metrics with Stuff Rate & Line yards are Sub 60 and the front 7 havoc is 50th in the country and they are graded out as the 65th best run blocking team in the country. Now part of this is that Texas does throw the ball at a top 30 rate in the country which makes sense with the talent at WR and the QBs they have but still shocking for how much talent they have. 

Oklahoma has been great at stopping the run however they have struggled defending the pass and are 82nd in Pass PPA. And you look at the teams they have faced throwing the ball, they are not great in Temple, Houston, Tulane, Auburn and Tennessee. Tulane and Tennessee are about the only two teams that can throw but after seeing Nico these past couple games it really scares me what this Texas arsenal can do with a full week off to prepare and having Quinn Ewers back supposedly at full health. Now you could say the same thing about Brent Veneables having the full week off to prepare but I don’t know if that is enough time to fix this pass defense.

Now on the other side of the ball this is where it gets interesting to me. This defense has some metrics to be cautious off. The biggest question for me coming into the year was replacing the two mountains in the middle of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy who are both playing in the NFL. The two transfers that they brought in have really only amounted to depth pieces and they currently grade out as 31th rush defense in the country according to PFF. Now people may think that's fine but the teams they have played against are Colorado State, Michigan, UTSA, UL Monroe and Miss State. No real offensive juggernauts there that should cause them to struggle with the run. And that is further punctuated with their line yards and stuff rate being 60th and 62nd respectively.So while I do think their rush defense may be a way to attack this team, I don't know if this Oklahoma offensive line has the goods to hold up. Their numbers are horrid.116th run blocking team according to PFF and pretty much any advanced metric associated with rushing or offensive line play is sub 100. The one thing this offense does have going for it is the explosive play. More notably in the run game which is where Texas has so far been elite. Where they have struggled is defending the big play with the pass. I will say I think that may be nitpicking here though because Texas is the top coverage team in the country so far. Again, not against anybody spectacular but I dont think Oklahoma has the goods to break open the play with the big pass. They did it against Auburn with two big pass plays but this Texas defense is a step above the Auburn defense. I think Oklahoma will try to rely on Hawkins legs, hope he and their RBs can generate some kind of run game and then hope they can hit a big play or two in the passing game.

Early in the week when I wrote this it was a pro vs joe split on the spread. 88% of the bets on Oklahoma spread while only having 77% of the money (Monday Night %s). And a ton of signals showing pro support for Texas laying the points.  I was kind of shocked to see that Oklahoma is a public side. Even when I edited this Friday night Oklahoma is 63% of the handle and I saw good ole Rico Bisco on the Sooners. I guess they are 4 and 1 and the last game they saw was a win vs Auburn and this is a rivalry game. I don’t know if I necessarily get the public's love here though. Maybe it's the classic rationale of “it's too many points in a rivalry game”. This Oklahoma offense is struggling and this Texas offense has a severe advantage with the pass. I would like a 14 flat here so I may wait but I would not be shocked if this closes closer to 17. I will say if you like Oklahoma this is a decent spot to get them. They have the bye to help out Hawkins and this offense and allows a full week for Veneables to prepare for Sark and this offense. 

Now the one angle I do want to attack with this Texas team is the 1st Half. Texas is currently 4 and 1 to the spread with their only loss coming two weeks ago Miss State. Oklahoma on the other side has been 2 and 3 but when they have stepped up in competition they are 0-2. And in those two games they combined for 10 points. Maybe with the bye they have some gadget plays to get them going but I see this being something similar and Texas potentially get 17 to 20 in the first half.

As for the total I would lean under. These opening numbers just get destroyed. I liked it much more at 51 and don’t love it as much as 49. Oklahoma does have the ability to hit some big plays which does scare me a little especially because I think Texas will get to 31 to 35 here so getting 14 here is not that crazy. Again one of those things where it was there and gone, but Oklahoma TT opened at 17.5 and thought that was a good buy point to fade this Oklahoma offense but that is long gone. Also look out for some Quinn Ewers props if you can find them. Think he has a big game here. Will try to find something for the twitter post

Bet 1: Texas 1H -7.5 -105 Win 1u (BetMGM)

Bet 2: Texas 1H TT O 16.5 -128 Risk 1u (FD)

Joe Dirt? No, that’s Quinn Ewers starting QB of the Texas Longhorns

#4 State Penn vs USC (State Penn -3.5 O/U 51, 330PM CBS

Preview

I hate when I have to write about State Penn but when they are in the Top 5 and playing USC you gotta do it. They haven’t truly been challenged this year, you could say West Virginia, score says no, or Illinois but that game wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Illinois scored on their first drive and basically didn’t move the ball after that. State Penn had a pick 6 called back on a block that didn’t matter and their field goal kicking was terrible. You can obviously tell that I am still salty about the cult not covering that number for me. But this will be their biggest test for them by far and it's one of those crazy new Big 10 games where Penn State has to fly across the country for a conference game.

And on the other hand, USC comes off a bad loss vs Minnesota. Maybe it was a lookahead spot for them to this game but they still should have handled business against Minnesota. Now Minnesota almost completed a crazy comeback against Michigan, so it's not a terrible loss in all reality but I think as this season goes on Michigan will continue to struggle and could potentially finish 6-6 if it all falls apart. Ironically USC lost to Michigan but on the road, similar spread so maybe that speaks that this USC team isn’t all that great and the LSU win was maybe a little smokescreen for what we thought this team was.

Handicap

Biggest difference for State Penn this year, maybe the defense has taken a tiny step back, but it’s the offensive play calling. OC Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas is a wizard and makes offensive football look like poetry in motion.  A ton of different formations with pre-snap motion and a ton of misdirection. So unpredictable and always has a good feel for the game. The biggest issue with this offense last year was the creativity and the lack of production that Drew Allar provided vs those elite teams. To be honest, I don’t know how much of that has changed. His numbers aren’t spectacular, He’s only thrown for 1100 yards in 5 games with 9 TDs & 1 pick but his average depth of target has increased by over 10 yards so far which is great and his rating on over 10 yards has significantly gone up. Right now they are 10th in 7th in Pass Play PPA and actually have some explosiveness in the pass game which is what the cult contingency wanted. They definitely have been able to run the ball this year however, nowhere near the explosiveness that you would want with them being 123rd in the country. 

Maybe we thought that performance for USC against LSU gave us some hope that this defense would turn it around. Anything that was an important metric last year they struggled with. This year they have shown some improvement but have some interesting stats. They are very well equipped to stop the big play, specifically the pass, 3rd in Pass Play Explosiveness, only 105th in Rush Play Explosiveness, but they have struggled in standard downs. Meaning that defenses are definitely able to keep themselves ahead of the chains.  Currently are 131st in Standard Downs Rate which is really bad but when they do get their opponent behind the chains, they are elite. It makes sense with their ability to contain the explosive play but may struggle with an efficient offense. And this adds up because they are 6th in the country in 3rd Down defense with just around 26%. So if they can get themselves to third downs they have a chance to put themselves in a good opportunity to succeed here. Looking at the numbers though State Penn has been very good at keeping themselves ahead of the chains. Part of that is because they are both running and throwing the ball efficiently. The offense has a top 15 rush rate in the country which equates to running the ball at a 60% clip.  And that’s where USC has struggled this year. They are 93rd on Rush Play PPA & currently graded as the 82nd best run defense according to PFF. USC has done much better defending the pass. However, I think the reason Allar has been so efficient this year is because their ability to be consistent in the running game allows him to not have as much pressure and creates those opportunities for him to be successful downfield. So I do think USC may struggle here on defense. The play calling is great and if State Penn can stay ahead of the chains and make 3rd downs manageable they have a very good chance to succeed here. Now that’s not rocket science but third downs is where this USC team flourishes and State Penn has been able to keep themselves ahead of the chains so far this season.

Now what was really disappointing about the USC loss, was the offense. Only 17 against Minnesota. Now the Minnesota defense is actually a top 25 defense, they have been great against the pass, not necessarily against who can complete a forward pass, their coverage rating shows they have been great but they have struggled a little bit against the run.  But for Miller Moss and this USC offense to only throw for 200 yards on 38 attempts is not good. It is a good sign that RB Woody Marks had 134 yards on the ground but this offense this year is based on the pass. And while this may have been a one off because Miller Moss has been very good all year, what concerns me is this offensive line. 

They got destroyed by Michigan and then had a subpar performance against the Badgers. Right now they are the 128th Pass Blocking & 119th Run Blocking units according to PFF. I’m gonna go throw up, excuse me. That’s pathetic for USC.  So while their line metrics with Line Yards and Stuff rate are great, both top 10, there is a different picture painted from PFF. And this is terrifying with this State Penn defense. They have some pros up front and they have been dominant. #1 and #2 in Stuff Rate and line yards and Top 10 in front 7 havoc. And then throw in that they are graded out as the 8th best rush defense and 5th best pass rush from PFF this screams USC is in trouble.

I don’t know if they can fix this in one week but Lincoln Reilly is going to have to get real creative with keeping Miller Moss upright and not letting this defense feast on this offensive line. I think it’s going to be a lot of quick throws, screens and things of nature. The one good thing for this USC offense I will say is that the pass defense is the relative weakness for State Penn. They are 6th in Rush Play PPA & and only 44th in Pass play PPA and their coverage rating is only 35th in the country.  So this is probably the way to attack this team if there is, since we have yet to really anybody crack this defense

After an initial look at the line and delving into the numbers, this seems like an auto State Penn play. USC struggles against the run, struggles to get teams behind the chains and the offensive line has been suspect. They are also coming off a loss against a Minnesota team that is middle of the pack in the Big 10 after we had a ton of hype for USC coming into the season. However this probably serves as a good buy low sell spot here. State Penn hasn’t necessarily been ultra dominant but they have handled business and depending on how West Virginia does against Iowa State that win looks that more impressive as well as what Illinois does against Michigan in two weeks. But this is probably the lowest you are going to get USC. They are 5.5/6 point dogs after a bad loss (this number is now down to 3.5/3)  and you have to imagine that Lincoln Reilly gets creative with his play calling against a very good State Penn defense. And the offense for how good the metrics have been the State Penn offense has not been dominating teams really. I will probably stay away from the side here just because I do think State Penn around 3 makes sense but as it ticks up it's probably smart to take USC, I just don’t know if I can do it.

What I do like here is the under. I think we do get a better USC effort on offense but I think it's going to be a very efficient attack. They haven’t been explosive, although State Penn has struggled a little with the explosive play but I don’t think this O-line can necessarily hold up in protection against this State Penn D-line. Lincoln Reilly is a great play caller and I think he can work some magic but I still think the talent of State Penn’s front will show up. And even if they are able to move the ball, State Penn is 6th in points per opportunity.  And on the other side I think State Penn continues to run the ball super effectively. I don’t know how much they will need Drew Allar’s arm in this game and when they do they will be in third and manageable. State Penn is averaging 28.8 seconds per play which is 111th in the country so if this is a methodical ground attack this could be long drives resulting in touchdowns.  And then it puts the pressure on USC to score, maybe forces them to be a bit more aggressive and allows this defense to tee off. This number is slowly creeping up so hopefully I think the top is 51 which I have. Think that is a very good buy point with a game being around 28 to 21, but realistically it may be lower than that.

Bet: State Penn/USC U 51 -108 Win (DK)

#9 Ole Miss vs # 13 LSU (Ole Miss -3.5 O/U 62.5, 730PM ABC)

Preview

This game somehow is not going to get as much publicity as it should with Ohio State Oregon going on at the same time but if you don’t have a two TV setup or youtube tv you will be missing out. Not to mention Florida vs Tennessee as well. SEC football under the lights is a spectacle by itself and then you throw the ranked numbers and you get something next level. I will say with SEC on CBS gone we should get more of these great games at night now because the time slot is more so big ten so that is definitely something I can get behind.

As for the teams. LSU comes off the bye, the last time they were in the public eye they beat South Carolina and there were some questionable calls that went their way and South Carolina missed a game tying field goal as time expired. And the last time Ole Miss played was against that South Carolina team and it was a very nice performance, 27 to 3, holding the Gamecocks to under 4 yards per play. The Ole Miss offense was good not great and you would like to see them get a nice performance against a legit SEC defense after they ran over the cupcakes early on and haven’t been the same since.

Handicap

The more things change the more they remain the same. And what did LSU suck at least year. They couldn’t defend anybody. Now are the numbers better, yes. They are 99th in defensive PPA and 109th in defending explosiveness. Last year it was in the 130s. Most notably they are still terrible against the pass.120th in Pass Play PPA & 112th in coverage grade according to PFF. But they actually have been decent against the run but struggle giving up the big play in the run game. But the one thing they have been great at is generating havoc and most notably in the front 7. Their pass rush grades out as 16th best which is very good and they are 15th in defensive havoc from the front 7. And I think that is what has been exposed about this Ole Miss team after moving onto the SEC competition. It was a question coming into this season with all the talent that Ole Miss had on offense whether or not the offensive line would be up to the task. You look at the advanced stats and they don’t say they are bad. In the 30s in pretty much all meaningful indicators for line play but PFF recent grades tell otherwise. 81st in Pass Blocking & 31st in run blocking grades. So the running block has been better but if you look at their last two weeks against real SEC teams the numbers have not been as good and that number may be inflated by the first 4 weeks. So I really think this Ole Miss offensive line will hold them back here and they will most likely be forced to run the ball since they can’t protect the QB. Not that this Ole Miss team can’t run the ball but I fear that in known passing downs that this line will not be able to hold up. Now the great equalizer here is the LSU secondary which has been less than impressive. One thing to note though, Ole Miss’s WR Tre Harris is dealing with an injury. As of writing this friday it looks like he is going to play but he is not 100%. The guy is a STUD. Has over 800 yards receiving on the season so far and without him this team looks different in the passing game. There is still talent at the wide receiver position with Antwane Wells, Jordan Watkins and Cayden Lee but Tre Harris is an integral part of this offense. 

Now as questionable as the offensive line has been for this Ole Miss team the defensive line has been the polar opposite. D-lineman Jared Ivy, Walter Nolan and Princely Umanmielen have been tremendous this year. Nobody has been able to run the ball on the big fellas and they have been sensational at generating havoc. 2nd in the country in front 7 havoc. The best rush defense grade in the country and the 4th best pass rush graded out by PFF. However, this will be the best offensive line they have faced all year. LSU came into the year with arguably the best offensive line in college football. They have arguably two of the top 3 tackles in the country, with Will Campbell and Emory Jones, which is insane, and they both will be 1st round draft picks. This line doesn’t grade out as well as run blocking, 67th in PFF & 42nd in Stuff Rate & 53rd in Line Yards, but they have been masterful  in pass blocking, 10th according to PFF. And with how great they have been in pass blocking it makes sense that their front 7 in havoc allowed is second in the country especially with the fact that they are 7th in passing play rate, i.e. they love to throw the ball. And while I mentioned that this Ole Miss team has been elite against the run, I expect that to continue as the season goes along, I think their pass defense is where people will start to attack them. They are currently 23rd in PPA, but what was surprising to me was the coverage grading was 23rd in the country. But they have had their moments where they have struggled. So I think that will be the deciding factor of this game. The Ole Miss Secondary vs this talented LSU WR core and QB Garrett Nussmeier.

Right now there is a good amount of sharp money on the under and I get that. Ole Miss the past two weeks has not been this elite offense compared to early in the season. I do think part of that is their offensive line is not necessarily as good as people thought. However this LSU defense has been less than stellar and Ole Miss should have success running the ball. They play at lightspeed so it really doesn’t matter if they are passing or throwing but I do think not having Tre Harris at 100% limits this offense and they may struggle to pass the ball because of their pass protection. And on the other side LSU isn’t necessarily that explosive and I do think there will be some resistance to them moving the ball. I think they will have some success in the air but this Ole Miss pass defense may be better than I expect. This matchup has favored the over, 4 of the last 5 have gone over and these are the scores. And not even close. Scores are below.

2023: 55-49

2022: 45-20

2021: 31-17

2020: 53-48

2019: 58-37

So sharp play is definitely the under. I am just a little scared this game can get a little out of control especially if Ole Miss gets it going early and stays in at a crazy pace.

What I do like is the home dog. Give me LSU and the points. There are definitely some things outside of the stats that favor LSU here. First, they are off the bye and Ole Miss has played 7 straight weeks, 2 weeks back to back vs good SEC Defenses. And another thing I don't think you can undersell is Death Valley at night is something else. That is where football deserves to be played. It's an unbelievable environment and if LSU can get a score or two early and get some Ole Miss punts or turnover on downs it becomes an even crazier environment. I think the Ole Miss O-line will struggle here and that the LSU offensive line will be up to the task. And like I said the deciding factor in this game will be LSU’s WRs vs Ole Miss’s DBs. And I give the advantage to LSU. This is going to be a close game so I think having that 3.5 with the home team has some value. And I wouldn't be shocked if LSU wins the game. Ole Miss won’t go down without a fight here and wouldn’t be shocked if it wasn’t a game like last year. Also look to see if you can find some Garrett Nussmeier pass yard props out there as well.

Bet: LSU +3.5 -110 Win 1u (CZR)

#2 Ohio State vs #3 Oregon (Ohio State -3.5 O/U 54, 730PM NBC)

Preview

And the icing on top. Thank the fucking lord that this game was not the big noon kickoff and the powers be made this under the lights. This is the definition of a primetime game. Now this game should be called by Kirk Herbstreit and Chris Fowler, but NBC has it, so we now have to listen to nasally little Noah Eagle, and Todd Blackledge call this game. I hope somehow, they weasel Black Italian Great Mike Tirico into this game with Chris Collinsworth, not his nepo son Jac who hasn’t seen a bump he doesn’t like. 

And keep your eye out for Freshman WR Jeremiah Smith. A freshman you say?!? If you have yet to see Jeremiah Smith play yet you are in for a treat. Oregon has some great corners but there are not many players that you say are NFL ready as a freshman, but he is a freak. His hands are insane, his body control is ridiculous, his build is crazy, he’s made in the lab. When he comes out (for the draft), he will be a top 5 pick and probably be the number 1 draft prospect if he keeps it up. People thought they would lose a step losing Marvin Harrison Jr. but this kid has stepped right in and shown why he was the #1 recruit in the country and a can’t miss prospect.

Handicap

Oregon was one of my picks to win the national championship and to date they have not not looked impressive. To be honest some of their performances have not been great. They struggled in week 1 against Idaho, it's week 1 so you don’t want to look too far into it, but then they probably should have lost to Boise State in week 2. They had their hands full with Ashton Jeanty which everyone does, but you expect with the talent they have that they would at least contain him. They then rebounded vs Oregon State, which was very impressive, but Oregon State’s defense might be one of the worst defenses in the country. They handled business against Michigan State & UCLA although didn’t cover either of those games. Sorry Keller, Jonathan Smith knew the spread and kicked that field goal to burn a nice Andrew Jackson off you. 

So while the schedule hasn’t been overly impressive, the underlying metrics at least from a rush defense are a little troubling. I think the big thing is that their numbers haven’t rebounded after Boise State slashing right through this team. Again, going against Ashton Jeanty is no joke but I would expect for this defensive line that brought in some dudes to be able to contain him at the line, but he gashed them for 192 and 3 TDs. DTs Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell (MSU & Houston Transfers) were very sought after in the transfer portal but haven't been as great against the run as expected. To put in perspective both were 80+ grades on PFF for the season against the run and this year they are only in the 70s. Still solid but not at that elite level that you would like to see based on the competition that they are playing. Now Harmon has been a menace getting to the QB with his 25 pressures from an interior defensive lineman, which is absurd, but this team hasn’t been as good as it can be against the run. 

 Following the Boise game, Oregon allowed 131 on the ground to Oregon State and then hunkered down to not allow more than 60+ yards to either UCLA or Michigan State. Now neither of those teams are elite rushing teams but it is a good sign moving forward for this rush defense.  Despite those efforts, to date Rush PPA 91st, rush explosiveness 129th, Line yards 60th and Stuff rate 95th. The reason I bring this up is because of the two head monster that Ohio State has in RBs Quinshon Judkins and Trevyeon Henderson and OSU is currently second in the country in Rush PPA. Both are big plays waiting to happen and QB Will Howard is not slouch running the ball either. You could argue that his biggest attribute will be his legs in this game. So far, the passing metrics have been great but they haven’t been challenged by anybody. Iowa last week was a nice performance for Will Howard, but they were able to do whatever they wanted. I expected that to change a little bit just because of the step up in talent that Oregon has all over the place. 

But where I think OSU can exploit thisOregon team is on the ground. There were some questions coming into the year about this Ohio State offensive line but up till now they have dominated the line scrimmage and are 13th best run blocking team in the country and rank 19th in pass blocking. Now this is definitely a step up in competition and I don’t expect for this Ohio State team to run all over Oregon but I think they will have some success. The two head monster should have some success and should be able to create some chunk plays. 

Now the units that pretty much had zero questions coming into the year were Ohio State’s defense and Oregon’s offense. I guess there was some intrigue into how well Dylan Gabriel would play in OC Will Stein’s offense but other than that these are two units that people were most excited to see. Ohio State essentially brought back everything. Guys that were potentially going to enter the draft decided to come back and it's paying dividends. They currently grade out as the second best defense in the country, 3rd in Rush Defense, 2nd in Pass Rush and 17th in coverage according to PFF. So absolutely suffocating and I think it is apparent with nobody other than Marshall nobody scoring more than a touchdown this year. The one nitpick to this defense is that they are 37th in PPA for passing plays. Really nitpicking but the defense has been great. Now this will by far be their biggest test but considering that none of those offenses are all that elite but they still have managed to be very dominant. 

Now this Oregon offense is no slouch but you would like to see some better numbers out of this offense. They lack explosiveness, like last year’s team with Bo Nix and company, but they still have been very effective. Maybe that is them holding back some tape to give Ohio State some new wrinkles. But I don’t know, last year they were the same with Bo Nix. They have QB Dylan Gabriel who has seemingly played forever but have some great weapons in WRs Tez Johnson & Evan Stewart, TE Terrance Ferguson and RBs Jordan James and Noah Whittington.  The offensive line expected to be a strength for this team but at the moment they rank 56th in front 7 havoc. Right now Oregon grades out as the 55th best run blocking team in the country to me. They have been great at pass blocking, signaling to me that that a lot of the work done in the run game has been because the backs have been so good. Jordan James has been awesome after contact but you wonder stepping up to the level of Ohio State with how good they have been defending the rush if this is sustainable. So I think if this rushing game stalls then they will have to beat them with the passing game when they are behind the chains which Oregon has actually been pretty good and sneakily Ohio State is 79th in success rate. So there's a path for success here. I just think that there will be some long methodical drives that rely on Dylan Gabriel who had some success with 11 TDs to 3 Ints but has not been great in the redzone..

In the end I like the under here. I really think this game is a slugfest and a grind. Oregon isn’t playing at light speed and is not very explosive. And it appears their best route in this game is to win with an efficient passing game. I think there will be a lot of times that Oregon is behind the chain because they struggle to run on this Ohio State front and there will be a lot of reliance on this passing attack to convert third downs. This Oregon offensive line has been great so far at pass blocking but there are some monsters on Ohio State and DE Jack Sawyer has had a great year so far. And even if Oregon is able to move the ball, they haven’t been able to generate scoring opportunities and capitalize on them. 74th in total scoring chances created, i.e. getting past your opponents 40, & 67th in points per opportunity. And currently Ohio State is 6th at allowing opportunities and 1st and points per opportunity.  And on the other side of the ball, I think Ohio State wants to ease Will Howard into the game and rely on this rushing attack. I am a little scared that they may be able to rip off some explosive runs here which may cause them to score quickly but I think Oregon must be wary of the big play especially after what Ashton Jeanty did to them. I also think that although Will Howard has been efficient this year that this is a different game with different athletes and different stakes. In big moments he has failed to be an efficient passer, and I think that may slip in here. I think Chip Kelly knows this and well let him rely on the run early may get him some runs and easy passes to build up his confidence. Although they have an advantage running the ball, if you are one dimensional in these big games usually it doesn’t end well for you. Oregon’s defense has been great at limiting scoring opportunities which is a good sign for them however not so great when opponents get there. That may be where this falls short admittedly. If Ohio State is just moving the ball and scoring touchdowns and Oregon can’t limit them to field goals this is shot. Again not rocket science here but field goals and punts are unders best friends.

As for the side Ohio State is both the public and sharp side early in the week. I Laid it out but they have the advantages on both sides of the ball. Or at least what the numbers say to this point. This matchup will most likely prove if those numbers are for real. There has been some buyback on Oregon. I would lean Ohio State, I understand taking Oregon + the points at home because you may not believe in Will Howard in a big game but this Ohio State defense is very good and the running game has been very good which leads well for a road team to cover. I do think Dan Lanning does have a slight coaching advantage because of Ryan Day’s track record in big games however I don't know if that would sway me enough to not take Ohio State here even if I was to bet it.

Bet: Ohio State/Oregon U 54.5 -115 Win (FD)

He’s a freshman just remember that

“Spot Plays”

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky (Kentucky -12.5 O/U 44.5, 745PM SECN)

Hope this isn’t breaking news to anybody but Vanderbilt beat Alabama last week in one of the bigger upsets in recent memory. It was the Diego Pavia show and the kid deserves it. If you remember last year he beat Auburn at Auburn so clearly the guy has something about dominating vs the state of Alabama. However, this is a terrible spot for Vandy. The number has gone against me so I didn’t get the best of the number which sucks but I’ll live with it. This Vanderbilt team loves to run the ball, they aren’t all that effective at it honestly so I expect this Kentucky D Line to eat them for lunch. Kentucky has shown to dominate against elite teams with their defense and off a bye I expect them to be ready to eat. Now the reason this line has gone against me is that this Kentucky offense has not been great and both of these teams play at a super slow pace. Meaning that it only gets harder and harder to cover two touchdowns when it's possible that nobody gets more than 20 points each. I’ll take my chances here. And hope that Kentucky can ugly this up and win 17 to 3. Might dabble in the under as well.

Bet: Kentucky -13.5 -114 Win 1u (BetRivers)

USM vs ULM (ULM -7 O/U 41.5, 5PM ESPN +)

Admittedly if you put this game on somebody should call the cops on you. Eh you might have to call the cops on me then. ULM comes off a crazy upset vs JMU in which they were 17 point dogs. They were outgained in that game and actually lost the turnover battle. But they play this slow ugly game and always allow themselves to be in it. That's why ULM is great as a dog. They run the ball and play good defense. Now is USM good? No they are pretty bad. They are 1 and 4 but showed some life against a decent ULL team who will compete for the sun belt championship. The total is also 41 and there is some pro support on the under meaning there is more value on the dog. Like it at 7 and maybe I get crazy and throw them in a Round Robin

Bet: USM +7 -108 Win .5u (BetRivers)

Florida vs #8 Tennessee (Tennessee -14.5 O/U 57, 7PM ESPN)

I think this one is going to be super public. But if Alabama didn’t lose to Vandy the Vols loss from last week is way bigger news. I don’t think it got swept under the rug but it was not as headline news as it should have been. Josh Huepel and his offensive wizardry was less than impressive. ArKANSAS had a great plan for them and Nico looked terrible. Tennessee does have Bama on deck next week but this is still a huge rivalry game. Florida has looked better in the past couple weeks but this defense is still not good and more specifically their rush defense is bad. The Tennessee offense is based on the run to set up the pass contrary to what everybody thinks. And this Florida defense is ripe for the picking. Heupel is great at covering 1st half spreads so I think this lines up well. Don’t want to get involved with the full game because if Tennessee has a decent lead they may decide to pull people and it leaves the backdoor open for Florida. If the 1H TT O is a good number I may be tempted to be bigger on that.

Bet 1: Tennessee 1H -7.5 -110 Win .5u (BetMGM)

Bet 2: Tennessee 1H TT O  17.5 -115 Win .5u (DK)

Minnesota vs UCLA (Minnesota -4 O/U 40, 9PM BTN)

Minnesota comes off a great win vs USC and now has to travel across the country to face UCLA who has been woeful. They have played a very hard schedule but are still 1 and 4. This is such a let down spot with the travel and opponent that Minnesota is facing. Strictly a spot play here but like the number. I don't think Minnesota is all that good. UCLA doesn’t have any statistical advantages here; anything above 3 is worth playing.

Bet: UCLA +4 -108 Win 1u (DK)

Lines that are stinky stinky stinky

San Jose State vs Colorado State (SJSU PK O/U 56.5, 330PM TruTV)

Didn’t know we had TruTV showing college football but here we are. San Jose State has been one of the surprising Group of 5 teams this year. They basically didn’t bring anybody back from last year and have had some nice victories early on. However, this screams that Vegas knows something that we don’t. SJSU is 4 and 1 and they are traveling to CSU who is 2-3 and it's essentially a pickem. Smells like a rat to me. The San Jose State O-line has been less than impressive. They are 133rd in Stuff Rate and Line yards and 123rd in Total Havoc. Meaning that there is some regression looming for this team. Colorado State actually has created some havoc and has some decent D-line metrics. The Colorado State offense has started to run the ball better more recently which this San Jose State team struggles with. This may be completely wrong but I’ll side with the books here.

Bet: Colorado State +1.5 -115 Win .5u (BetMGM)

Arizona vs #14 BYU (BYU -3.5 O/U 48.5, 4PM FOX)

Alright this one is laugh out loud funny but I totally get this one. BYU is the #14 team at home yet they are only -3.5 vs Arizona who is 3 and 2. I bet Baylor against BYU and that did not go well but this lines up well. BYU is riding high but is that #14 really warranted. K State was a classic sandwich spot and that game was very flukey, Baylor is not very good, Wyoming is terrible and  they beat SMU before they started to figure it out. So we might need to pump the brakes here. They are graded the 51st coverage unit against teams that can’t all throw it that well. And Arizona’s numbers this year have not been great with the pass, which is a little shocking but they have some good weapons most notably Teteiroa McMillan who will be drafted very early. Don’t know if anybody on BYU can guard him and think this Arizona D matches up well here as well. Probably will throw them in a round robin as well.

Bet: Arizona +3.5 -115 Win 1u (BetMGM)

Jersey Bets

Sometimes Jerseys are so good that you have to bet on those teams. I am a firm believer of “You Look good, You feel good, You feel good, You play good, You play good, they pay good”. Let’s get paid

Nominees

Rice “H-Town” Jersey (They got C&D from the Oilers for these but keep wearing them)

Rice +4 -110 Win .5u (Thats a ML Bet if you ask me about those Unis)

West Virginia “Coal Unis”

West Virginia +3.5 -110 Win .5u (BetRivers)

Best of the Rest

Washington vs Iowa (Iowa -3 O/U 41.5, 12PM FOX)

Washington comes off the win vs Michigan, Michigan may stink, and Iowa got thumped by Ohio State. It was an emotional win for Washington after Michigan beat them in the National Championship. I understand that it's not the same staff but still meant something for the program and was a primetime game. I think this is a good rebound spot for Iowa. With the low total and how Iowa plays close games I will be on the ML though. The Iowa defensive stats are deflated after playing Ohio State but they will match up well against this Washington passing attack. And Washington has struggled with the run and RB Kaleb Johnson has been great for Iowa this year. Think Iowa controls the game on the ground and shuts down the Washington passing attack.

Bet: Iowa ML -142 Risk 1u (DK)

#18 Kansas State vs Colorado (K State -3 O/U 55.5, 1015PM ESPN)

This line has gotten absolutely destroyed this week and it makes sense. I don’t think many people have confidence in Avery Johnson and his ability to throw the ball. Colorado has impressed in the past couple weeks and their rush defense is actually not that bad. And Kansas State has struggled guarding the pass (99th Pass Play PPA & 88th best Coverage Grade from PFF) and creating a pass rush (128th best Pass Rush for PFF). Colorado’s issue has been protecting Shedeur but i don't think that should be an issue and they should be able to torch this defense. I like the over but there is a ton of sharp money because neither of these teams are playing all that fast and aren’t that explosive. But I like Colorado to get theirs here. Give me the TT O.

Bet: Colorado TT O 26.5 -115 Win 1u (ESPN Bet)

Cheers,

-Nick Leonne