Dick’s Picks: Week 6 Roundup

Photo by Tony Walsh from UGAAA

Week 6 Takeaways

The Red River “S-Out” did not disappoint and lived up to its name.

Some crazy plays, a pick in the first minute of the game and then a blocked punt for a touchdown within the first 5 minutes. Absolute mayhem and you wouldn’t want it any other way.

But in the end the difference in the game was the QB play. Quinn Ewers was doody and Dillon Gabriel was fantastic. Quinn Ewers turned the ball over 3 times and Dillon Gabriel had a clean sheet. And guess who was able to lead his team the length of the field with no timeouts, Dillon Gabriel. And guess who couldn’t get his team in the endzone at the 1 yard line with 4 plays, Quinn Ewers.

Just when we thought Texas was back, they poop their pants and turn into the Texas that we know and love. Their CFP chances aren’t completely done but they made it a lot more difficult on themselves.

OHIO STATE Stinks. They confirmed it this week. Luckily they covered for my bet but this team stinks.

They start so slow. The play calling is terrible. I don’t think it's all that difficult. Throw the ball up to Marvin Harrison Jr, feed the beast, and then run the ball after.

They continually try to run the ball and put themselves behind the chains. And that was against a Maryland front. My god are they going to struggle against State Penn and Michigan. It doesn’t seem to be all that difficult.

And McCord isn’t the guy either. He threw for 300+ yesterday but it may be the least impressive 300 yard performance of all time. I really hope Ryan Day is gone after this year. He clearly can’t handle this level of program. They play Penn State in two weeks. So help me god if they win that game. If not then I hope they get throttled by Michigan. After that Ryan Day has to go. I almost think if you are an Ohio State fan that you might want to lose to one of these games prior to Big Blue, get rid of this clown and bring in Urban Meyer for the rest of the year. That guy will get Ohio State ready for Michigan.

I think the Georgia we saw today is the Georgia that we will see going forward. I think the Auburn game was a wakeup call and we finally witnessed a “Georgia” performance.

Carson Beck was great, Brock Bowers is an alien and the defense shut down what was the offense’s best weapon. Bet Georgia -14 and wish I took some alternate lines. Knew it was a good spot. Not that the game will be a test but if they have another performance like this week against Vanderbilt, watch out people. Kentucky may have been a little inflated with their record but they will probably end up with 8 to 9 wins.

Have to give Bama some props here. Tommy Rees clearly figured out a game plan for Jalen Milroe and it worked. Run the ball some and then let him chuck that thing down the field.

Now, how poorly Texas A&M defended the long ball is a discussion for another day but they still exploited it. Limit the amount of times that he needs to throw the ball in the intermediate range. He clearly doesn’t have that touch but can throw a great deep ball. Defense was solid as usual and it seems like they are building some momentum for this stretch run in the SEC West.

And right before I talk about LSU. THERE MIGHT HAVE BEEN THE WORSE COACHING/PLAY CALLING OF ALL TIME. HOLY CRAP.

All Miami has to do is knee the ball and they win the game. And Tim Hasselbeck is announcing the game and says “why aren’t they kneeing the ball, nothing good can come of this. You can give the ball away here”.

And sure as shit they get stripped and Ga Tech gets the ball with 23 seconds left. Down by a field goal so if they get in range they will hope to tie the game with a bomb. They get a nice pass so they are a little past mid field. The next play the QB breaks the pocket and the safety who is not supposed to let anybody get past him bites and the guy goes behind him and scores a TD with 1 second left. Probably the worst loss I have seen. I don’t even know if the Atlanta Falcons could replicate this disaster of a sequence.

And last but not least. LSU. It’s as simple as the offense is extraordinary, and they might be better off throwing 11 pieces of swiss cheese on the field and maybe that will get a better result then what they have at the moment.

It’s just incredible. They are a MUST WATCH. They play Auburn this week whose offense is dreadful. If they score some points then it's even more alarming. Maybe FSU scoring 40 in the opener wasn’t all that great as we thought it was.

Big Picture

Texas is Back…. Not Really

The Texas loss is HUGE for the CFP Outlook. If they won that game, finished the rest of the year unscathed and even if they lose in the Big 12 championship you have to put them in. Now they make it so they have to win the Big 12 Championship to get in. It’s going to be very awkward if Texas and Oklahoma face in the Big 12 Championship and Texas wins. What is the committee going to do? You are most likely going to have the PAC 12 champion, Big 10 Champion and then the SEC champion and then throw the ACC champion if they only have 1 loss. I find it hard that you are going to snub one of those conference champions.

Dead Man Walking

USC escaped by the skin of their teeth last night against an Arizona team with their backup QB and honestly Jed Fisch should have known to go for two during the 1st OT. And I think this is their funeral this week against ND, wink, wink, and if not they still have Washington and then away at Oregon. I’ve been harping on it every week but this is it. If you take Caleb Williams away I don't even know if they are a bowl eligible team. That's how special this guy is.

A win this week goes a LONG WAY

Oregon travels up to Seattle this week to face the Huskies. Whoever wins this game I think is in the driver seat to guarantee themselves a spot in the PAC 12 Championship. Washington has a little bit tougher road so I think this win is bigger for them. Oregon has a more manageable stretch. A big part of this though is when Cam Rising comes back. Oregon gets Utah earlier than Washington which may be a huge factor in this race. Utah only has one loss in the PAC 12 so if they get him back and start rolling no reason they can’t make it to Vegas.

Betting Recap

Cumulative CFB Record 77-76-5 +4.48u (in the black baby!)

Saturday Record 12-5-1 +5.99u 🔥🔥🔥

RR 2 of 5 Correct -.56u

Spread: 7-1 +5.36u

TTs: 1-2 -1.18u

O/U: 2-2-1 -.19u

Teasers: 2-0 +2u

What I hit on the head (Golf Clap) Got A LOT right this week so will keep it short

The Dawgs: Unfortunately the preview did not come out but I said that Georgia was going to roll Kentucky. Kentucky had one player that Kirby had to focus his game plan around and once they stopped him they had no chance. Carson Beck looked great last night spreading the ball all over the place and it looked the Georgia that we have come to expect. Maybe it just took a close game against Auburn to wake these sleeping giants. Interested to see if they keep this going or not. Or if they will just be dormant until they get Mizzou or Ole Miss.

The “Buy Low” Spots: Had Miami for smaller and didn’t have the cajones to put a full unit on it but they won that game outright. They lost to Bowling Green the week before and nobody wanted any part of this team. Well good ole #dickpicks, will hop on that bandwagon. As well as ArKANSAS. Been dreadful the past couple weeks but Sam Pittman got his boys up to play and gave Ole Miss a run for their money.

The “Ville”: Said this in the preview as well that Notre Dame must be so drained from the two crazy games they played, then next week hosting USC and it was a very good spot for Louisville. Sam Hartman was not himself and Louisville was fantastic. Jawhar Jordan was tremendous and that defense played out of its mind. Alright mentioned it above and kind of ties into my “Buy Low” spots but you already SCHNOW Notre Dame is the play next week. Nobody will want to be on this team after laying an egg in primetime but there is so much more to it. Think we get a regrouped team ready to manhandle those thespians from USC.

LSU Game Overs: Just printing money at this point. No more to be said about it

And what went WRONG

Ga Tech/Miami Over: I hopped on the bet early in the week and then the line dropped on me. I didn’t understand the movement. I was on the wrong side. There was a sneaky chance for the game to go into OT with that coaching blunder. But the history of Tech and Miami playing weird games came to fruition. There was a little glimmer of hope when Tech started scoring in the third but it was the wrong side. Probably the worst early bet that I had this year so far.

And what should have lost

OSU -19.5:

Game was 10 to 10 at halftime and should have been 13 to 10 if Maryland didn't botch the final play of the half. Had to have a pick six and an almost pick 6 to get this to the window. And then a meaningless field with about 4 minutes left. Maryland was the right side. They were the public dog though, so I would have taken Ohio State anyway but wasn’t a deserved winner like UCLA & Georgia.

Looking ahead

Season Early Bet Record 13-6-1+6.24u

Last Week Early Bets 2-2 -.2u

LSU/Mizzou O 61.5 -110 (Win) (Closed at 64)

Ga Tech/Miami O 60 -110 (Loss) (Closed at 56, terrible CLV)

ArKANSAS +12 -110 (Win) (Closed at 13.5)

Kentucky/Georgia U 48.5 -110 (Loss) (Closed at 47.5)

Bets I have already made

Notre Dame ML -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)

Not much to say here. USC is a bunch of frauds. They have been scraping by by the skin of their teeth. Arizona actually is ok but Colorado is nothing special and they struggled with both. Notre Dame should be able to dominate up front and then hit chunk plays whenever they want. Think people are going to over exaggerate what happened against Louisville on Saturday night. Was a terrible spot with this game on deck as well as the two emotional games piror. Happy to get this as the line has already moved up to 2.5/3 at some books early and the moneyline is closer to -140 at some other books.

Oregon/Washington O 68.5 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)

Two of the best offenses face off in Seattle this week and there should be fireworks. Nobody has stopped either of these offenses. The Oregon defense is a little bit better statistically then this Washington defense. Oregon should have some success on the ground which may be something that doesn’t get us to the counter if they want to keep this Washington offense off the field. But this game should be up and down. I don’t know if either defenses have what it takes to get enough stops. The difference will probably be which defense gets more stops, but not enough for getting over this number. It is a big number but this is probably the game I am most excited for this year. Have my Penix heisman ticket and if they win this game and my Notre Dame bet holds serve he is in the driver seat. But I am not going to bet the under and here and be a poopypants watching two elite offenses. If that's the sharp side then so be it.

Cheers,

-Nick Leone