Dick’s Picks: Week 4 Roundup
Photo by Kyle Robertson from the Columbus Dispatch
Week 4 Takeaways
The play calling in college football in short yardage and situational football has been horrific and was put on full display yesterday.
Clemson had 2 plays to get 2 yards. They had some success running the ball all day and it was very clear that Will Shipley and Phil Mofah were your two best players on offense that day.
So what do you decide to do? Throw the ball twice and don’t give it your running back(s). You deserve to lose the game.
And then fast forward to Notre Dame/Ohio State. If Ohio State didn’t win that game Ryan Day should have been fired on the spot and been forced to walk home from South Bend. In the first half it's 3rd and Goal at 1, they hand it off to their back, stuffed. Then it's 4 and Goal at 1 and you run play action?!? Can you just run the Rugby QB sneak. God gracious. And then fast forward to the 4th Quarter. You are down 14 to 10 with 4 minutes to go. 3rd and 1 you hand the ball off to the back, stuffed and then you run a jet sweep on 4th and 1 and get stuffed again. Run the DAMN RUGBY QB SNEAK.
I know when Bennett is reading this he will just be nodding his head. And the one sneaky play that I don’t think will get enough flak is the screen call that almost got picked off when Notre Dame had the ball before punting it back to Ohio State. If Hartman throws the ball perfectly it's a touchdown and its game. BUT, the result was not that. If you run the ball there you force Ohio State to use another timeout and you never know what that does to that Ohio State play calling/psyche on that drive. And NOTRE DAME HAD 10 MEN ON THE FIELD FOR THE FINAL PLAY!!! THAT CAN'T HAPPEN!
And building off that. Ohio State stinks. With how much talent is on that team they are going to lose to Michigan and Penn State and then they can fire Ryan Day and bring in good ole Urban. He might be one of those biggest POS’s around but he will get Ohio State back to what it should be. His decisions in big situations are terrible and Kyle McCord is not the answer. The play should be to throw it up to Marvin Harrison Jr, F it he is down somewhere down there. He tried to get all cute with his playing call. It has caught up to him years past and I'm sure it will catch up to him this year. He needs to go back to the drawing board and follow the KISS method. Keep It Simple Stupid.
And I have to bring this up. There are two teams in the pacific northwest that are REALLY GOOD.
They happen to both be in the apple state with Washington and Wazzu.
I was really high on Washington this year and they have not disappointed. Penix is now co-favorites with Caleb Williams but the schedule does get a little rough. They have a brutal stretch to end the year. Last four weeks of the season are at USC, Utah at home, At Oregon State and then Wazzu at home for the “Apple Cup''.
I think if they go 3 and 1 then there is no reason they don't get to the PAC 12 Championship and if they win that there is no reason they can't get to the CFP playoff.
And for Wazzu, I wasn’t all that high on them going into the year because of Cam Ward’s inconsistency last year. But boy has he proved me wrong.
They have handled every test this year and I am buying into the hype. Maybe Wisconsin and Oregon State aren't all that great but to be home dogs and handle those games is very impressive. Now, I will say they have to prove it to me when they travel away from the Palouse but very impressive for the Washington schools this year.
And maybe Alabama is not dead but I’m interested to see how they navigate the rest of the season. They finally started running the read option more with Milroe which is the right decision and the defense played well against a very good Ole Miss offense. They get LSU at home which is good and depending on the Connor Weigman injury news out of Texas A&M no reason they can't win the SEC West.
Big Picture
Unfortunately with Notre Dame losing last night I think they are out of the CFP race. I think they would need some weird stuff for that to happen. They can play spoiler though as USC comes to town in a few weeks and I think that's more than a gettable game for them. I think how USC handles Colorado will speak to that.
As for USC, I think they are in for a world of hurt in the PAC 12. They get Utah and ND in back to back games and then finish the season off hosting Washington, going to Oregon and then playing UCLA. Most likely get two losses out of those 5 and their playoff hopes are gone.
I really hope the PAC 12 does not cannibalize themselves and they do get a team into the playoffs in the last year of the conference. If Cam Rising gets healthy that Utah team can be really good, and I talked about Washington teams above and you can't forget about Bo Nix and Oregon with that great home field advantage.
I think going to a 12 team playoff is too much and 6 is the right amount. This year would be the best argument. After last night’s performance out of Ohio State I think It's either Penn State or Michigan out of the big 10. Could get a little hairy if they all go 1 and 1 against each other. If Penn State can get some production out of their offense then I think it's theirs for the taking with how elite the defense has been. The SEC looks like a one bid league for me. I know Georgia won't lose its #1 ranking but they haven't been anything special. Then with LSU and Alabama losing out of conference to teams in conferences with not so much depth (Big 12 & ACC), those teams control their own destiny. And you have to think if they lose to Georgia they won’t sneak in. Now if Georgia loses to Bama/LSU or Ole Miss it throws another wrinkle.
As for the two teams that are front runners in their conference that are not in those top tier conferences this year. Texas, should run the table the rest of the year. Maybe they have a slip up but if Alabama keeps winning that win looks better and better. And for FSU, looking at the numbers they should have lost yesterday and I think they lose one before the end of the year. Will be interesting to see how that affects their ranking if/when it happens.
Betting Recap
Cumulative CFB Record 52-60-4 -5.54u
Saturday Record 10-12-3 +.02u
Spread: 4-6-2 -2.02u
TTs: 2-2 +.38u
O/U: 2-2-1 +.3u
Parlays: 1-2 +.36u
Teasers: 1-0 +1u
What I hit on the head (Golf Clap)
State Penn -14: I wrote up how abysmal the Iowa offense was and they put that on FULL DISPLAY. Stats wont even do that performance justice. 76 total yards on 33 total plays and State Penn ran 97 plays. Penn State had more plays than Iowa had yards. Just comical. If they played that game for another 60 minutes I don't know if they would score. The only regret for me was not taking that Iowa TT U. But the Penn State defense is legit. Rain only helped them but still very impressive and Iowa needs to figure something out.
The Aftermath of the beating in the Swamp: Said Tennessee would want to gain some momentum and thump UTSA and they did it. Got a little hairy towards the end but they cash that TT O and Charlotte got that one touchdown we needed. Florida was nothing great which is what you would think after such a big win and Kentucky on deck.
WASHINGTON TT O: Missed on the closing line value by a couple points but it didn’t matter. Thought this was a loser based on that i was mistaken. They covered it in the FIRST HALF. Team is a wagon going to ride until the wheels fall off.
And what went WRONG
All my home dogs: I said UConn stunk and they got rolled, I said UTEP was dreadful and they were dreadful, and I said Pitt was going to play ugly. And boy did they play ugly. Got a little greedy with the buying low on some of these teams but that happens.
ArKANSAS Under: I didn’t even have to change this caption from last week. I thought they would play LSU tough and get some stops. Well they did play them tough but they got 0 stops. Don’t know what I'm going do with this ArKANSAS team. When they get Rocket Sanders back it may just be an automatic over if this defense keeps laying eggs.
And sometimes you have the right bet but you still lose.
Clemson +2.5: You look at the stats of this game and no way Clemson should have lost this game. They ran 20 more plays and outgained FSU by over 100 yards. But sometimes it just comes to one play. And it was that fumble 6 that FSU had was it. And then add in the missed field goal towards the end of regulation, terrible play calling with yard to go in OT and you have a loser. It was only the wrong side for the result.
And…..
OREGON TT O 45.5: Holy shit this one sucked. Gave this out at the bar to a couple of the regulars and boy were we soaring. 35 points at HALF TIME, get the bus ready for this to cash. Everything I said in the handicap was 100% spot on. Colorado couldn't stop them and Lanning was aggressive in the red zone. It was a loser when they took Nix out. Was shocked with the move because of how much Lanning had talked about Colorado during the week and after his corny pregame speech. But you have to live with it.
And whatever the hell happened in South Bend last night
I’ll touch on ND +3/+3.5. I guess in the end it cashed but the 3 shouldnt have been a loser. And it proves that Ryan Day is a moron coach. You accomplish absolutely nothing by kicking that extra point. If they block and return it then it's a tie game. There is 1 second left. So that one stung a little. Handicap was right. McCord stunk, he had one big drive but the play calling was terrible in big moments. Luckily they punched it in. Ohio State has a long season ahead of them. Don’t know how Ryan Day makes it through this year if they play how they did last night vs State Penn and Big Blue.
Looking ahead
Season Early Bet Record 7-3-1+3.54u
Last Week Early Bets 1-0-1 +1u
Notre Dame +3 -105 (Push) (Closed at 3)
Charlotte +28 -110 (Win) (Closed at 28)
Bets I have already made
Auburn +17 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel) & Georgia/Alabama U 47.5 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet)
Auburn hosts Georgia this week. And something doesn’t look right with this Georgia team. Doesn’t seem like they have had that complete Georgia game yet. I thought they would lay the hammer down against a not so great UAB team after the South Carolina game performance. Don’t think Auburn is all that live here because the offense is dreadful, but the defense is good so I think this turns into a rockfight. Think if you get a score or two here from Auburn should be in decent shape. It’s also Georgia’s first road game and Jordan O’Hare should be bumping with this being the 330 time slot. Not that their gameplans have been anything crazy but I think it will be pretty vanilla as well to ease Carson Beck into the game.
I also like the under 47.5 here. Number is around 47.5 to 46.5. Auburn hasn’t shown any promise with their offense and the D has been solid. I think the same can be said about Georgia. They haven't done anything that impressive on offense and going into Jordan O’Hare Stadium for the first game on the road makes me think its going to be a vanilla game plan. Both of these bets could go to shit though if the Georgia we become accustomed to seeing shows up.
Alabama/Miss St U 49 -110 Win 1u (BetRivers)
I almost wanted to take the +15.5 with Miss State but I don’t necessarily trust them to cover it. The Alabama defense was very impressive against that Ole Miss offense and I think they build some momentum off that. Miss State was in a shootout against South Carolina but I don’t know if that rolls over here. They did go back to throwing the rock a ton more which is probably better for this offense but I don't know if they will continue that. If they do, Alabama was great at defending the pass last week against Ole Miss so I don't know if it matters. Alabama’s offense wasn’t setting the world on fire last week and I don't think it will this year honestly. I think they are content with a game plan for Milroe that simplifies the game and they try to not turn the ball over and let the defense handle business. Miss State has scored 13 combined points in the last 5 meetings so Saban seems to have their number as well. Add in that it may be a little sleepy trip down to stark vegas could easily see a score similar to the Alabama Ole Miss game.
UAB/Tulane O 55 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)
This one might be a little random but the fighting Trent Dildos might not be all that good but they play with pace and never give up. A perfect recipe for an over. With Michael Pratt back at QB for Tulane they will get their fair share, probably will be on that TT O when it opens up, and if we are little behind you know good ole Trent Dildo is still going to give it the good ol college try.
LSU/Ole Miss O 62.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel)
I think the first reaction after seeing Ole Miss get dominated by Alabama is to lean to the under with such a big number. I think you have to take into account though that was basically Alabama’s season so the game plan was great and the defense played phenomenal. I don't think you can take away from that game that the Ole Miss offense is not good. Think that might be a rash conclusion. They still have some serious talent at all their skill positions. And this LSU defense to me is a step back from that Alabama defense. They shut down a Miss State team in limbo and then gave up 31 to Arkansas without their best offensive player. The LSU defense needs some work and I think this is a tough spot. Now on the other side of the ball the LSU offense has been great. You take away the second half against FSU and they have been putting points up like it's nobody's business. Think the Ole Miss defense is a little step up in competition but think we get some fireworks. These two teams have a history of filling up the scoreboard and think we get on Saturday in the “Grove” as well.
Bets I am just waiting for a better “Number”
Ole Miss +3 or better (Currently at 2.5)
LSU’s offense has looked great and Ole Miss looked like assdoodoo against Alabama. This LSU defense isn’t as good as the Bama defense and I think this is a great spot for Ole Miss. Ole Miss has a little revenge on their mind for the thumping last year in Baton Rouge and they are playing for their SEC West lives here. If they lose this game they are pretty much out of it and it's just LSU & Bama. If the 3 doesnt pop I'll settle for the 2.5 or 2 as the week goes along.
Colorado +25.5 or better (Currently at 23.5) & USC/Colorado O 71/72 or better (Currently at 73.5)
Colorado got absolutely boat raced in Eugene last weekend and nothing went well. I do like the over here because this USC defense is still really shaky so if I can get a little buyback on the over I’ll take the bet. I think Colorado should be able to get some here. And Colorado spread is enticing as well. It's ugly because of last week but this line is going to be inflated because of that. The bubble was going to pop for Colorado just didn’t know that it was going to be that bad. Now it's almost the opposite way in a sense. Because they got railroaded so bad this number is big and I don't think people are gonna shy away from betting Caleb Williams and this offense after what Bo Nix did to them. I’ll just keep letting that number climb. I think it gets to 25.5 but if we can get a 27.5/28 that would be great as well.
Stanford +27/28 (Currently at +25.5)
Oregon comes off a huge win so it's a sleepy spot to go up the “Farm” and this is a lot of points. Stanford is not very good and you will need them to score most likely for them to cover. Big emotional win Oregon with how much it seemed they want to thump Colorado so don’t know how focused they will be. Two years ago Stanford as 8.5 point dogs won a crazy game against the ducks. DOn’t think they can win it but maybe you get a weird game here.
Cheers,
-Nick Leone
