Dick’s Picks: Week 4 Primer
Sometimes the hammer and sometimes you are the nail. And last week I was the nail that got hit into submission and just kept getting bloodied. Not terrible on the big game write ups, almost positive if Wisconsin doesn’t score a touchdown on 4th and goal and Bama doesn’t go the length of the field with under 30 seconds before the half to score a touchdown. But you are going to have those losses and have to stick to the process and keep grinding.
Now the slates are going to start to pick up here. We are entering conference play now so games should only get more competitive as we go. Huge one in the SEC in Norman, still so weird to say, and then we have a nice afternoon slate with the clash of two of the top teams in the big 12 and two teams possibly going in completely different directions in Big 10 (Oh no Big Blue)
Bet Record for Big Games (8-6 +1.39u, 7-3 O/U +3.66u, 1-1 MLs EV, 0-2 Spread -2.27u)
Last Week 2-3 -1.37u
Bama/Wisconsin U 51.5 (L)
Mizzou -16.5 (L)
Mizzou/BC U 54 (W)
Tulane/Oklahoma U 47 (L)
Georgia/Kentucky U 45.5 (W)
NC State vs #21 Clemson (Clemson -18.5 O/U 44.5, 12PM ABC)
Preview
Probably one of the most disappointing teams to me in 2024 has been this NC State Wolfpack. They had an awful offense last year and it appeared that they had the solution in QB Grayson McCall coming in from Coastal Carolina along with some of the nice skill position players they brought in through the portal. But it has been far from pretty. They had an ugly win week 1, they got a can of whoop ass opened up on them in Charlotte and had another ugly win against a very bad La Tech team. This team was a potential darkhorse to win the ACC and maybe even to sneak into the playoff. Their performances have taken them out of both of those considerations realistically and add on that Grayson McCall is now injured and this could be a very slippery slope for this team.
The last time we saw this Clemson team on national television against Georgia it was bad. They were competitive in the first half and then in the second half Georgia flexed their muscles. It was boys against men and there was a lot of chatter the following week about Dabo and this roster. I think what probably went under the radar was their performance the week after. Now it's against App State, they just lost by 34 at home to South Alabama on Thursday night, but Clemson went and took out their frustration and put up 66 on them. The game was over in a blink of an eye which is a good sign for this Clemson offense and building some confidence going forward. At the Superdome it looked like a lost season but with how open the ACC is and not playing Miami at any point this season they have a chance to win the ACC and make the playoff.
Handicap
Now the biggest news here and why this line has shot up so much is the news that Grayson McCall is out for this game and they are starting Freshman QB CJ Bailey. Now he does have some pedigree playing at Chaminade Madonna in Miami but this is asking a lot of this freshman to make his first start in Death Valley vs a very talented defense.
The natural reaction with the news of McCall not playing is to take Clemson spread and the under. Which is apparent with the moves in the market. The total has dropped from 48.5 to 44.5 and the spread has shot up from 14 to 19. And the moves are warranted. Now some could say that McCall’s play during this season so far probably doesn’t warrant such a big move but going from a 5 year starter and a former conference OPOY to a true freshman playing on the road is probably fair. So now it's digging into the current market to see what is still worth playing.
To me where the NC State team has been the most disappointing is in the trenches. Most notably the offensive line. I thought that the first game against Western Carolina was just some rust but they stepped up in class against the Tennessee D Line and it wasn’t great. 3 sacks and I don't think that really does the performance justice. As a whole the team had sub 50 blocking grades from PFF which is not good. And if we are being honest here this Clemson D line is not far off from the Tennessee defensive line. Maybe not the top end talent with James Pearce but they can definitely match their depth. Clemson has some serious studs on the defensive line and if they are able to stop the run, which is very likely with how this NC State offensive line has played, this may be open season on CJ Bailey.
Now I talk about this in the Tennessee writeup, but after what happened to NC State in that game these unders have gotten really dicey. The under should be the play, however if this NC State defense gets absolutely run over here Clemson may be able to cover this number. The O/U in the NC State/Tennessee game closed at 60/61 and Tennessee had 51 themselves. Clemson did show that they can score some points. So this being at 44 I dont think it would be that crazy to see clemson get 35 and NC State get 10. 45 would probably be where I start to target the under.
So I would look at either the TT O for Clemson or the TT U for NC State. The NC State number has gotten too low. It's now at 11.5 which is a little scary. The Clemson TT O has dipped to 30.5 but it is still super juiced at -130. If that dips down a little lower I think that is worth a bet.
I think where I land with this game though is Clemson laying the points. I wonder about the psyche of this NC State team. They haven’t played great, and now they are traveling down to Clemson after losing their starting QB. Clemson seems to have built some momentum on offense and even if they don’t play a perfect game I expect them to continue to get opportunities with this defense facing a freshman making his first start. I also think the spread gives you a little more flexibility compared to the TT O. If this Clemson defense plays lights out you may only need 24 to 27 to cover this number. A big underdog usually has value with a small total but I just have too many concerns about this NC State team.
Bet: Clemson -17.5 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)
#11 USC vs #18 Michigan (USC -5 O/U 44, 330PM ABC)
Preview
Two teams just going in completely different directions. Lincoln Riley has seemed to change the identity of this USC program this year after losing Caleb Williams and their defense looking totally different. Miller Moss has the potential to be a dark horse Heisman candidate if he continues to play as well as he has but the defense has been most impressive. If you put 11 trash cans on the field it would have been better than their defense last year. 34.4 PPG and all their defensive metrics are about as bad as it gets. I don’t know what blackmail DC Alex Grinch had on Lincoln Riley but the fact that guy had a job for as long as he did was insane. He is the definition of failing upward. They replaced him with D’Anton Lynn, DC from UCLA last year, whose defense was amazing and they then went out and got some great skill position coaches as well. It has turned around. Now it was just one week and it appears that the LSU offense has some firepower, so that was a nice performance by this defense and will be interesting to see if they can keep it going.
Now Michigan, I don't know what the hell is going on in Ann Arbor. I think the whole us against the world mentality can't be played this year. They lost 18 starters from last year’s squad and to think they would just pick it back up after Harbaugh left for the NFL was a little silly. The defense still has some elite talent but the offense is suspect to say the least. And that was exposed in the first three games. They flat out stink. They had a kid who beat Leukemia starting at QB who was a walk-on. You are telling me that Michigan couldn’t get anything in the portal? Just seems a little silly. But here they are. And now they face a team that has some momentum while they are struggling to figure out how to complete a forward pass.
Handicap
This Michigan team is a de facto under team until something changes with this offense. They play slow, aren’t explosive, can't throw the ball and have a good defense. Not necessarily fun to watch but that is their profile and it lines up with some unders. Now our friends in the desert are very good at their job and will continue to adjust these numbers as the year goes along but I think early on they won’t over adjust because then it provides value on the over. So when looking at the team’s they play the question is do they have a dance partner for a potential rock fight.
So does USC check the box of good defense and an offense that is dependent on the run and isn’t explosive. The defense at this moment, yes, the offense, no. The defense has improved from last year, but realistically they could only go up from last year. Early on in the season they have been decent against the run. LSU really struggled to run the ball against them and Utah State stunk at everything. So it is hard to really determine what this defense defends well against from one data point. But where they did struggle against LSU was against the pass and the explosive run. Michigan hasn’t shown the ability to do either of those this year. Michigan pretty much lost every starter on offense and to expect them to reload with that talent and experience level is insane. And it's been apparent. You could argue that last year they had the best line in the country, all 5 are on NFL rosters, and now its brand new line. It was not pretty against Texas. Now last week against ArKANSAS State they were able to run the ball which is good but its ArKANSAS State.
But the biggest question mark is at QB. The Davis Warren numbers from week 2 make it look better than he was but he threw 3 INTs against ArKANSAS State. And his replacement Alex Orji, yes it is pronounced how you think it is pronounced, can’t throw the ball either. Meaning this is load up the box and dare Michigan to beat you with the pass. If USC takes away TE Colston Loveland who is NFL good and I don’t know how much success they will have moving the ball.I do think naming Orji the starter does give this team an identity which is a good thing in the long run. I imagine that Michigan is basically running the wildcat offense and hoping that the USC defense is too aggressive and they can beat them with some play action passes to create chunk plays. Now this is a big if, but if this Michigan offensive line can build on last week and generate a push it at least gives this offense a chance to score.
Now on the offensive side of the ball this USC team loves to throw the ball with an efficient passing game. For the first two performances being as good as they were they aren’t super explosive. The rushing game numbers have improved after the LSU game but that was against a really bad Utah State defense that just let up 35 to Zach Wilson’s younger brother at Utah. So I think USC will be attacking this Michigan defense with the pass. I don’t know if they will generate enough push against this Michigan defensive line to run the ball but at the same time Michigan’s defensive line hasn’t been able to generate a pass rush this year which is shocking with the talent they have. And Michigan has not been great defending the pass this year. Now do I think this USC passing attack is as good as Texas? No, it doesn't look like anybody other than Ole Miss has an offense that can challenge Texas’s offense at the moment, but Miller Moss was very impressive against LSU and I expect that to continue. It is important to note that this is his first true road game but if the Michigan offense struggles early and USC can make some plays in the passing game it may take this Michigan crowd out of it.
I struggled to make a bet here. I hate taking a favorite on the road with it being a QB’s first true road game. Sharp money is now on Michigan and the number has ticked down a little after getting up to 7 and it seems to be going down. But this Michigan offense has been awful so if USC scores 21 to 24 points here I dont know if they are guaranteed to get 17. The total seems about right to me. The Texas/Michigan total closed at 43/44 and the game ended 31 to 12. And was decided on the failed two point conversion so had the potential to land 45. And I think Michigan probably gets closer to 17 to 21 here and USC is hovering around that 21 to 27 range. As crazy as it sounds I may wait for this total to keep going down and maybe bet a deflated USC team total over or game over. I think 45/46 is the under range and 42 to 43 is the over range as ridiculous as it sounds. This opened up at 47 early in the week and knew that was good to take but now that has totally disappeared and isn't coming back.
Bet: USC TT O 23.5 -130 Risk 1u (CZR)
#12 Utah vs # 14 Oklahoma State (Oklahoma State -2.5 O/U 52.5, 4PM FOX)
Preview
Big news here is that QB Cam Rising is expected to play. This line has ping ponged both ways and on Friday it finally settled at Utah -1. If you want to read something funny, a twitter troll convinced an ESPN reporter that Cam Rising contracted tetanus in his finger that required stitches. #CTESPN. This offense at times last year was pathetic without Cam Rising but was actually productive last week without him. It was a little disappointing to give up 21 to Utah State who got absolutely demolished the week prior by USC, but it is an in-state rivalry so you expected a better performance than the week prior. Zack Wilson’s brother, Isaac Wilson started. Hand up, I had the under there. I thought since you share blood with an absolute loser that he would be a loser, but he actually played alright. But there are really high hopes for this Utah team this year. Even with Rising missing all of last year they were competitive and Kyle Whittingham is probably one of the more underrated coaches in college football. He doesn’t necessarily have all these highly touted recruits like other programs in the P4 but they are always in the thick of it and love to play that “underdog” role.
There was definitely some hype for this Oklahoma State team this year. They pretty much return everybody off a team that won 10 games however if you look at the advanced metrics they significantly overperformed. Their expected win total was 5.8 which means there is a boogie man waiting to take wins away from this team this year. Clearly the boogie man hasn’t shown up yet because how they won the game vs ArKANSAS is still miraculous. And then add on that they covered 7.5 in overtime was just the cherry on top for this luck. But this team has a little different identity than last year. I don’t know if Ollie Gordon is hurt or they just haven’t figured it out blocking up front but it has been the Alan Bowman show. This “kid” is 24 and he needs to be on the sidelines coaching or drinking at a bar watching college football and not playing it. But he has been very productive this year. He absolutely roasted Tulsa last week and made plays when he needed to get the win vs ArKANSAS.
Handicap
This line opened at Oklahoma State -2/3 because of the uncertainty of Rising but as soon as the news announced this line jumped to Utah -2/-2.5. Then it jumped back to Oklahoma State -2.5 and now it's back to Utah -1. It’s all over the place and proves that guys that think they know what the hell is going on have no idea what the hell is going on. We will really know if Cam Rising is playing when warmups start.
One thing that pops off the page when looking at this Oklahoma State team is their rushing numbers. The rush plays stats are bad, (108th PPA & 118th Success Rate) and the PFF running and run block grades are both sub 75th in the country. So at the surface it would appear that something is off here but if you look at last year’s numbers their offensive line wasn’t any great at creating push either, very good at pass blocking though, and it was a lot of Gordon creating big plays by himself. However, this year the big play hasn't been there and the numbers are startling from Ollie Gordon. Other than the opener vs South Dakota State he has yet to break 50 yards. Now maybe this is by design and the coaching staff is waiting to unleash him in conference play, but it's still a little puzzling.
But what has been the driving force for this offense is the passing attack. Ole Man Bowman has been this offense. The pokes are top 30 passing play rate (He’s attempted over 30 throws in each game, 40+ in the ArKANSAS game) and have been very effective throwing the ball so far this year. And as I mentioned above this line has been great at passing blocking. No sacks allowed this year and only 1 QB hit and 11 pressures with Bowman dropping back over 120 times. So very impressive stuff. Now I do think this will be a big step up in line play. While ArKANSAS is in the SEC their defense was expected to be less than impressive and they didn’t generate a pass rush. It is not necessarily the strength of this Utah defense but I expect there to be more pressure than ArKANSAS. The strength of this defense early on and is usually the case with this Utah defense is their pass defense. They are very well coached and they are usually a top 25 to 30 pass defense in the country. They do lose S Cole Bishop to the NFL which is a big loss but they should still be strong at coner. The teams they have played against so far this year haven’t really scared them but they are still top 20 in passing metrics and have a top 30 coverage grade on PFF. This will definitely be a step up in competition but they should be up to the task. It is also worth noting that Ole Man Bowman may not be as good as people think. Last year he had 15 TDs and 14 Ints, he should have had way more picks according to the underlying numbers and this year while he has a 9 to 2 TD to INT ratio, he only has a 6 to 4 big time worthy throw to turnover worthy play rate. PFF’s fancy way of saying if you are really making the big throws to be an elite QB or throwing balls that should be picked off regardless of result. Admittedly I am not the biggest fan of Alan Bowman and to me there is usually a reason that you play 7 years of college football at 3 different schools and people aren’t lining up to sign you.
This Utah offense doesn’t have much to handicap. With Rising getting injured in the first half against Baylor and their first game being an absolute mauling of Southern Utah you can’t really examine this offense. However, when Rising did play in years past the offense was pretty efficient and he always seemed to make clutch plays when it mattered. There are some data points to evaluate this Oklahoma State defense. Again, this team returns a lot from last year. And you could argue that bringing everybody back may not be all that great. They were 125th in YPG & 123rd in YPP and the pass defense was BAD. 117th in the country in pass PPA, rush defense was slightly better at 75th in PPA in the country. So this defense was not good. I think that was on full display last year when Texas put it on them in the Big 12 championship. Now is this Utah offense explosive? Not really, or not to this point I should say. They do have some nice weapons in WR Dorian Singer (USC and Arizona Transfer), TE Brant Kuithe, who was injured all of last year, and then RB Micah Bernard. So this offense does have some potential for a big day. They did it against Southern Utah and you wonder with Cam Rising's injured hand how much he can throw the ball. He is a tough son of bitch so I do expect him to be fine but it may hinder him.
The one thing that stood out to me about Oklahoma State other than the explosiveness allowed, I don't know if Utah necessarily is that explosive, is how many times Oklahoma State allowed their opponents to get into their territory and then continually stop their opponents from scoring. It's not sustainable. Right now they are 103rd in opportunities allowed and 7th in points per opportunity. They allowed ArKANSAS to get 8 opportunities and the net was 7 points. Two missed field goals, a fumble, pick 6, turnover on downs and 3 touchdowns. And pretty much everything went their way in the second half. Those three touchdowns were in the first half. There is no reason that they should have won that game. Which is evident in an ArKANSAS post game win percentage of 92%. The horseshoe has got to fall out of this team's ass sooner or later and I think Utah can do it this week.
Admittedly I do love a home dog and I am scared of Gundy as a home dog. He always seems to get the troops ready to go. However I think Utah matches up well. Their secondary has the ability to stop this passing attack but I am a little scared that maybe Ok State has been playing possum with Ollie Gordon and he just erupts here. Utah was not great against the big run last year, but I will believe it when I see it with Ollie Gordon. I do think this Utah defensive line does have the advantage against the Ok State O-line, so if they can bottle up Gordon he may struggle again. And I think this Oklahoma State defense is not all that good and this Utah offense is more than capable of getting some points here. I bet against Gundy last year when he was a home dog against Oklahoma and he somehow pulled a horseshoe out of his ass to win this one so I hope he doesn't do it to me again here. But I will take my chances with Utah ML here.
I struggled with the total here. Lot of public money on the over and some sharp money on the under. Neither of these teams play extremely fast and both defenses so far have been good at preventing the other team from scoring touchdowns. However, we saw what the Oklahoma State defense looked like when it got tested by ArKANSAS and they honestly should have scored more and this Utah defense hasn’t really been tested either. I do think if either team is down they can throw to get back in it which does make the game longer. And there is always something weird that happens in stillwater.
Bet: Utah -120 Risk 1u (FD)
Note: I bet this on tuesday when Utah was favored before it yoyoed back and forth to now Utah being a small favorite. So not the best number but still don’t hate a short ML here for Utah.
It might be a mistake betting against this guy. Dudes Rock.
#6 Tennessee vs #15 Oklahoma (Tennessee -7 O/U 57.5, 730PM ABC)
Preview
Great way to end the night with SEC Football under the lights in NORMAN, OKLAHOMA. HUH? First time we get to see Oklahoma against the big boys of the SEC. They looked somewhat competent last week against a good group of 5 team in Tulane. Offensively it was still not pretty. They totalled 349 yards, so moving in the right direction, but only averaged 4.7 yards per play. They ran for 180 but 47 of those came from one jackson arnold run so the line was still not great. They received a 43.2 PFF run blocking grade which is just flat out terrible and the pass blocking grade of 57 was not much better. The one good thing for this offense was the ability to finish drives and some improvement on third downs. 50% on third is a marked improvement from where they were before and they had 8 trips past the 40 and averaged 4.25 points per those opportunities. So still some improvement but to be at the level that they want to be at they will need more. The defense again was very good. I will say the Tulane passing numbers are not great but there were a bunch of throws that Darian Mensah was inaccurate with. You could argue that he was inaccurate because of the situation of a freshman in a hostile environment but if those throws are converted it's a different game.
This Tennessee team has been about as perfect as you can be. They have thumped the teams so badly that I was at a tailgate this weekend where a kid said he live bet them -71.5. Do you realize how hard it is to be a live favorite of 71 POINTS? Just an ass kicking. And they were very impressive against NC State. Now you can really only use the NC State game as the loan data point for this Tennessee team and that may end being thrown away by the end of the season depending if NC State doesn’t completely fold. And while going to a neutral venue and putting on that performance was impressive we will only know how good that performance is as the season goes along.
Handicap
In the preseason this line was Oklahoma -3.5/4. It has now flipped to Tennessee 6.5/7. Tennessee is going to be the very public pick here and I think it's similar to the NC State situation. It’s almost an identical spot for Tennessee after they won by 60+ against far inferior opponents and now face a formidable opponent the week after. I do think this line has probably shifted a little too much. A 10 point shift in 3 games is a lot but I don’t know if I'm willing to get in front of this freight train that is Tennessee right now.
The one big difference in this game as compared to the NC State game is they are facing a way different defensive front. I mentioned it last week but this Oklahoma front is a real SEC front with their size and talent. The biggest criticism of Oklahoma and Texas coming into the SEC is that their trenches were not SEC level. Now I don't know if Oklahoma has accomplished that with their offensive line but their defensive line is definitely up to snuff. They have been one of the best graded defenses against the run, PFF grades them at 92.5, second best in the country. Now their rush metrics are not that elite (Line Yards and Stuff Rate) but the overall rush defense is very good. It's one of those things where they haven’t exactly faced somebody at their level yet but they are still handling business which is always a good sign.
Undoubtedly a big part of this Tennessee offense has been its run game. They have just been gouging everybody with the run.Top 50 rush rate in the country and the rush numbers are fantastic. Even if you take away the ridiculousness against Kent State and Chattanooga, they ran for 250 on the ground against NC State at over 5.5 yards a clip. So while everybody is salivating over Nico, the real engine behind this offense is this running game. And Oklahoma can match them here. I do think this is a big step up for this Tennessee O-Line especially after seeing what NC State has done this season but they should be up for the challenge. It was announced Friday that starting Left Tackle Lance Heard will be out which is a big blow. I do think this along with one another matchup is probably the biggest part of the handicap. Tennessee isn’t as explosive throwing ball as people think they are or at least at the moment they aren’t and Oklahoma has actually stood up well against the big pass. However as an overall pass defense they have struggled some. So if this Oklahoma defensive line can stop the run and make it obvious passing situations this Oklahoma secondary has a chance. But if this Tennessee offense is just mowing these guys down at 5 yards a clip it puts the defense on edge and I don’t know if anybody is stopping this Tennessee offense.
The big thing on the other side of this matchup is can this Oklahoma line hold up against this Tennessee front. This Tennessee front was expected to be nasty with how much returning production they had and how elite James Pearce is a pass rusher and they have lived up to the expectations so far. They have graded out Top 10 in pretty much everything important on PFF. Again take it with a grain of salt because of the opponents, but this is a huge step up in talent and execution for this Oklahoma team. They have struggled both running and throwing the ball, 98th in Rush PPA & 117th in Pass PPA so far, and they have not been great in the trenches either. Oklahoma grades out at the 66th best in Pass Blocking Team in the country & 128th in the country in Run Blocking. WOWZAs. So I am a little scared that this game will come down to Jackson Arnold’s arm. He still has yet to eclipse 175 yards throwing. The one thing I will say and I don't think anybody has really been able to expose it yet, or maybe it won't be an issue, is that coming into this season the projected weakness of this Tennessee team was their secondary. They pretty much lost everything and brought in some OKAY transfers to replace guys that either are on NFL or P4 Rosters. However, I don't know if this Oklahoma offense can expose that. Arnold has been sacked 8 times this year by Temple, Tulane and Houston and they have struggled to be efficient and convert on third downs. There is a severe possibility here that the Tennessee defense stuffs the run, puts Oklahoma in passing situations and just unleashes the calvary on Jackson Arnold and he is a sitting duck. So I don't love this matchup with Oklahoma here.
I probably will end up playing Tennessee someway. I think I got in front of the train the first time and they convinced me it's probably not the best idea to do it. Now if there is a time to bet against them it’s now but you gotta have some cajones to do that. I do think this Oklahoma defense has a chance to at least slow down this Tennessee offense because of their front and how good they have been against the run. However I don't know if this Oklahoma offense can capitalize. It’s really hard to not fall in love with this Tennessee team after their performances, but there is something to be said about taking care of business and just smushing teams in the fashion they have done it. So if it dips below 7 or maybe if Oklahoma scores first and I get something under 6 or cheap ML I may get involved.
Now I do want to take this under. The only thing that scares me is this Tennessee pace and offense. I think the Tennessee defense eats in the trenches vs this rattag group of Oklahoma offensive lineman and makes it super hard on Jackson Arnold to get comfortable. However if you just keep giving this Tennessee opportunities to score eventually the dam is going to break. I think that was evident with NC State. You got to give your defense a chance to rest or else it's just an absolute nightmare facing this team. And in the back of my head even if this Oklahoma defense is up to snuff with the run I think Nico and these receivers can convert unlike Tulane’s Darian Mensah and receivers last week. I think there are many avenues that this game gets blown open. I think what I am going to play here just because of the blowout potential is the under for Oklahoma. Right now it sits at 24.5 with some decent juice. So I will monitor that as the week goes on to get a better price.
Bet: Oklahoma TT U 24.5 -115 Win 1u (FD)
Hopefully we get a better Oklahoma Offensive performance than what the Schooner did here
Best of the Rest
Florida vs Miss St (Florida -6.5 O/U 58.5, 12PM ESPN)
Both of these teams have had terrible starts to the season. HC Billy Napier from Florida is looking down the barrel of being fired if it doesn’t turn around and Miss St just got THUMPED by the Toledo Rockets. Both teams need to get a win desperately. I think Florida is the more talented team in this matchup but asking them to cover 6 after the performances they have had is a tall task. However, I like the over here. Miss State is the fastest team in the country in terms of SPP (Second per play) and Florida is 40th. I expect this game to be fast and both of these defenses are not very good. This Miss State defense doesn’t generate any havoc, and can't stop the run or the pass.
And on the other side this Florida team got torched by Miami, which will most likely continue to not look as bad if they continue to ball out, but they lost to a Texas A&M squad that struggled to score points against ND who just lost to Northern Illinois. Now the big thing to note is that A&M changed their QB and it looked much better but still not great. So I think this game is up and down and we get some points here. Doesn’t matter to me who starts for Florida.I think both QBs should have success here and I expect to get a better offensive effort from Jeffy Lebby and his crew this week in starkville.
Bet: Florida/Miss State O 58 -108 Win 1u (DK)
Ohio vs Kentucky (Kentucky -19.5 O/U 42.5, 1245 SECN)
I think this is similar to the Akron vs South Carolina game that will be written up below. Kentucky comes off a tough loss in a game that they honestly could have won. Georgia always struggles with Kentucky but part of the reason is that Kentucky’s defense, most notably their front 7 is always solid. However I still do have questions about this Kentucky offense. Now this could be a get right spot against an Ohio team that has surprised people with their performances thus far in the year but it's an SEC trench vs a MAC trench. Tell that to Miss State and Toledo fans though. But the one thing this Ohio team likes to do is run the ball. Top 40 in the country in rush rate and early on RB Anthony Tyus has been a nice surprise. He had over 200 yards in their opener against Syracuse. However, that won’t work against this Kentucky defense. I think they are just going to eat them alive if they give the slightest bit of care.
Transfer QB Brock Vandagriff hasn’t figured it out so they have run the ball a ton this year. Now it's early but Ohio actually has decent run numbers. Now this is a step up in class but I think they might provide some resistance here. Even if they don’t Kentucky plays at a snail's pace. I think this could be similar to their opener Southern Miss where they won 31 to 0. Kentucky travels to Ole Miss next which will be tough so I think this is just them taking some frustration out in the first half and then bleeding the clock in the second half. If Mark Stoops is really pissed off and wants to get this offense going which is a possibility they may cover this over by themselves but I honestly don’t even know if their offense can get to 42 points.
Bet: Ohio/Kentucky U 42.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM)
Memphis vs Navy (Memphis -9.5 O/U 49.5, 330 CBS)
A great spot for this Navy team. Memphis comes off that huge emotional win against Florida State that gives them a potential chance at the playoff. Maybe not if FSU continues to keep losing. Navy comes off a bye and Memphis has to travel to Annapolis as well. And Memphis has a potential lookahead spot with USF next week as well. Memphis has done well against the run which is a little scary here but the spot is too good to pass up. I missed the 10 which would probably make this closer to a full unit play. But it will play it smaller here.
Bet: Navy +9.5 -105 Win .5u (FD)
#8 Miami vs USF (Miami -17 O/U 65, 7PM ESPN)
This Miami team has looked like an absolute wagon. Doesn’t matter who they are playing, they are just putting it on their opponents. This is probably their biggest test to date. The South Florida offense has not been as great as it was last year but they started to pick up some momentum last week against Southern Miss. This is a big step up in competition but this is a big in state rivalry game for these South Florida kids to prove that they deserve a spot at the table with the big boys. Miami has struggled with the explosive run play early on which is something that this USF team excels with QB Byrum Brown. USF also plays at light speed. This is essentially Tennessee 2.0. And I don’t know if USF has the tools to stop Miami, they have been great at generating havoc which is a recipe to get Cam Ward to turn the ball over which may create some short fields for this USF team. I think this game is a ping pong match and we will get some fireworks in Tampa. Give me the over.
Bet: Miami/USF O 65 -110 Win 1u
Akron vs South Carolina (SC -26.5 O/U 41.5, 730 ESPNU)
South Carolina got robbed last week and this South Carolina team has surprised some people. I don’t think people were bought in on QB Lanorris Sellers but you can get behind RB Rocket Sanders and their defensive line led by true freshman Edge Dylan Stewart. If he keeps this up he is a top 10 pick waiting to happen. So this is a little bit of a hangover spot with lowly Akron coming to town. And it just got announced that Sellers will not play and it will be Auburn Transfer Robby Ashford.
Akron must be trying to get as many checks as they can. They played Ohio State week 1 in the ‘Shoe & then traveled to Piscataway, New Jersey to face the fighting Greg Schiano’s and now head down to Columbia, South Carolina. Brutal for a MAC team but sometimes that's how you go to keep the lights on. This Akron team is not very good. Their win total was in the 3 to 4 range and they haven’t really done anything against the big boys. Now they did put up 17 against Rutgers and it wasn't in garbage time but it's still not great. I expect them to get manhandled in the trenches here and South Carolina is basically going to run the ball every play here. Especially with Robby Ashford at QB. They do it against SEC schools so I dont think it will be any different here. They also have a bye week next week and I think with some injury concerns they just want to keep it simple here and go into the bye week healthy so they can prepare for the game that they host Ole Miss. Could be a game where they put the hammer on Akron early and just crunch the clock. I did miss 45 which stinks but still like this number and was able to snag 43.5 which I still like as a full unit play. I wouldn’t be shocked if this closes at 41. (I bet this before the ashford news came out so maybe I can see into the future). I think last week’s performance for South Carolina was more indicative of how the LSU defense is not improving and that the LSU offense still has some firepower to make games high scoring. I think they go back to a low scoring affair here.
Bet: Akron/SC U 43.5 -115 Win 1u (BetMGM)
Ga Southern vs #5 Ole Miss (Ole Miss -35.5 O/U 69 (Nice), 745PM SECN)
This is going to be an auto play for me every week. Lane wants to beef up Dart’s stats for the Heisman. They definitely had their opportunities to get over their total last but some penalties held them short. Again the big thing that you need is a defense that stinks and a team that plays fast. Ga Southern is Top 15 in the country in pace and they are 127th in PPA in the country in the early season. They let up 56 to Boise so this number is very attainable.
Bet: Ole Miss TT O 51.5 -125 Risk 1u (ESPN Bet)
Common coach keep scoring like you do off the field on the field and we will all be happy gamblers.
#13 Kansas State vs BYU (K State -6.5 O/U 49.5, 1030PM ESPN)
It's really hard to play in Provo on Saturday night but it's even harder to score on Saturday Night at the BYU campus, see what I did there. Those goddamn soaking mormons. Every time I can bet against them I will. Unless it's just lined up like this game does. This spot is almost as unbelievable as it is to think that Jesus Christ actually came to America. But this is a great spot for this BYU team. They have really overperformed compared to expectations this year and K State is in the ultimate sandwich spot. Great win against Arizona last week and they have Oklahoma State next week. About as good of a spot as you can get for BYU. Scooped up the touchdown when I could but think they have a chance to win this game. BYU hasn’t been great against the run this year so far so that does scare me but this Kansas State defense has struggled against defending the pass where BYU has had some success. Give me the super soakers to get it done on a crazy Saturday night in Provo.
Bet: BYU +7 -112 Win 1u (DraftKings)
There mascot does do some crazy shit but thats because he is FULL of testerone.
Cheers,
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-Nick Leonne.
