Dick’s Picks: Week 4 Primer
Photo by Shannon Soboslay from Onward State
Hello Friends,
Week 4 is FINALLY here. Great week last week and we are here to keep it rolling.
As my dear friend and your “source” Stu Feiner would say “READY TO ROLL, READY TO ROLL”.
Absolutely enormous slate. Might just be the day where you cream your dockers and may need a second pair of pants with how good this slate is.
6 Ranked Top 25 matchups and then Clemson & FSU, Sorry Clemson you botched that week one game against the Dukies. Going to be a great day. Slate is spread out perfectly which was well done by the schedule folks. Little breakfast with Clemson/FSU, a nice afternoon lunch with Bama/Ole Miss, Oregon/Deion U & UCLA/UTAH and for the Dinner Ohio State/ND, OSU/Wazzu & State Penn/Iowa.
AND HERE WE GO!
Bet Record for Big Games (8-6 +2.22u, O/Us 4-1 +2.4u, Spreads 2-2 +.21u, TTs 1-3 -1.34u, ML 1-0 +1.03u)
Last Week (6-1 +4.94u 🔥🔥🔥🔥, O/Us 3-0 +2.5u, TTs 1-1 +.49u, Spread 1-0, +1u, ML 1-0, +1.03u
Noon Kickoff
FSU vs Clemson (FSU -2, O/U 55.5 12PM ESPN)
This game might be the one that people look at the line and think that FSU is a slam dunk.
We saw how great FSU was against LSU and we saw how Clemson shat down their leg against Duke.
If you dive further into that game, Clemson had some very inopportune turnovers and horrible kicking.
You change the two fumbles inside the ten and the two missed field goals it's a whole different game.
It's not that they weren't moving the ball, they actually outgained Duke on the night and were similar in YPP (Yards Per Play). There was so much hype about Garrett Riley changing the offense around that everybody expected to see this sudden change, and when we didn’t get we overreacted and said Dabo should lose his job.
Now on the other side we saw Florida State arguably have the best performance of the year thus far. Down at halftime to LSU they basically put it on them in the second half and flexed their muscles. They realized that they could exploit the LSU’s secondary and that’s just what they did. Keon Coleman looked like a god and everybody thought that LSU’s season was over and that Florida State was a shoe in to be a playoff team.
Well, fast forward to last week and FSU almost lost to BC and Clemson dominated against FAU. FSU got outgained and allowed BC to look like a college football team, those Jesuits lost to NIU who then lost to Southern Illinois, shout out the Salukis for their occasional NCAA Tourney appearance. And Clemson absolutely manhandled and FAU which is what they should have done. Defense was all over the place and the offense showed some signs of what they should look like. The one thing that I think that BC showed in that game is that the FSU defense does allow explosive pass plays and that teams can score on them once they cross their 40.
Now, the question is does Cade Klubnik and this offense have the goods to exploit it.
From that Duke performance no, but I think it's a couple weeks into the season and I'm trusting in Garrett Riley being able to scheme something up for this FSU defense and that the Clemson defense gets the stops when needed to keep this game close.
Now, FSU could absolutely blitz them and show why they are a top 4 team in the country and you may know very early if this bet is a loser but I'll take my chances with this Clemson team playing for their season.
I also saw that cornboy Will Compton says that FSU is the easiest bet on the board so I'll side with the book this week and if they lose Clemson season’s over and I’ m done betting them… until next week.
Bet 1: Clemson +2.5 -110 Win 1u (Don’t think a three is popping up anytime soon, if you want to buy up to 3 completely understand)
Bet 2: FSU/Clemson O 55 -110 Win .5u
Midday Slate
Colorado vs Oregon (Oregon -21, O/U 70.5 3:30PM ABC)
I think the bubble has finally burst for Colorado and I think the line is evident with the pro support for Oregon in this game. This is the line for the casual gambler to scratch their head when they see Colorado as a 21 point dog after starting out 3 and 0 with so much hype.
They should have lost last week to Colorado State, a team that got whacked by Wazzu, who will probably be 10 to 14 point underdogs when they come to Eugene in a month or so. And now they will get a taste of Big Boy Football.
I wasn’t high on Oregon and nothing has happened to change my opinion. Defense is nothing great and Bo Nix away from home is nothing special and they get two of their four premier games in the PAC 12 away from home which will probably be losses. And add on they should have lost to Texas Tech.
However, I do think this is a great time for the Bo Nix Heisman campaign to have a day. He had billboards taken out in NYC which was so bizarre but this is his opportunity to put up ridiculous numbers on national television.
Oregon can name the score on this Colorado team. I even think if the game is on the verge of getting out of hand that Lanning keeps Nix in for a drive or two to maybe break the Oregon record of 6 passing TDs or 7 total TDs. This Oregon offense is a step above a TCU team that put up 42 and 541 yards on Colorado.
I understand the pro money taking Oregon at -20.5/-20 and will be on that in a smaller way as there is something in the back of my head that says Colorado is down 28/35 and they don't give up and backdoor this game. I think Colorado will get some scores but think their trenches get exposed for what they are. And that leads to Oregon going up and down the field. There is the off chance that this Colorado offense does struggle because of the step up in competition which leans me more towards taking Oregon’s Team Total Over instead of the game over. Going to be a long day for the Buffs in Eugene.
This is what puddles look like after an 81 to 0 game this year. Puddles better have practiced his pushups or else he might end up like this again with the Buffs in town
Bet 1: Oregon TT O 45.5 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings)
Bet 2: Oregon -20.5 -120 Win .5u (Fanatics)
Ole Miss vs Alabama (Alabama -7, O/U 55, 3:30PM CBS)
This was probably the hardest game for me to handicap off the premier games. On the surface Alabama has not looked so great and the instant reaction when you look at this line is how can Alabama be laying 7 against an Ole Miss team that has looked pretty good from 3 weeks and has some legit talent on the offensive side of the ball.
So you try to dig into the number of Ole Miss to see if there is something that maybe Bama can exploit. Ole Miss’s overarching numbers are going to look great because they slaughtered Mercer, shoutout Kate Leone somewhere in the record books there, so you have to look at the Tulane and Georgia Tech games closer.
Specifically the Tulane game.
Tulane had their backup QB and did not fare well in the red zone but did show that they were successful at stuffing the run and very good at defending the pass downs when Ole Miss was behind the sticks. And on offense they were pretty good with the explosive pass plays which is something Alabama can try to mimic. That game was way closer than the 17 point margin indicates.
On the Alabama side Jalen Milroe being back is definitely an improvement from Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson. He is clearly the best of the 3 but there are still some flaws with his accuracy.
He’s basically the homeless version of Lamar Jackson, that being said he is probably the best athlete on the field.
If you look at the Texas game neither team could run the ball and it was basically a boom or bust game with explosive plays. Took a while for it to get going but when it did there were chunk plays galore.
But in the end, Texas got the bigger plays when they needed them and forced Alabama to match them and they couldn’t.
Ole Miss has the goods to do it on offense and Saban and his minions know this. Uncle Nick has great respect for the Lane Train. I think the coaching staff knows that if they get into a shootout that it favors Ole Miss so they may try to use the athleticism of Jaylen Milroe in the run game and then hit on some explosive passes. This isn’t the Alabama O-line of old so I think there will be some struggle but I think continuing to run the ball which eventually opens up those deep passes that Ole Miss is susceptible to.
On defense, they know Lane’s offense is based on establishing the run to open up to get his offensive mastermind going. So if they can get some disruption on early downs and force them in true passing situations where the playbook isn’t as open they can have some success with their pass rushers and build up the confidence of that young secondary.
Both of these teams have been 1H under teams against real competition this year, take out week 1 from both teams schedule, so I’m going to take the 1H under to potentially avoid there being a bonkers second half just like the Texas/Alabama game and the Ole Miss/Georgia Tech Game, cashed an over for us but we say our prayers.
Think it's another feel it out in the first half with a few scores and then some second half adjustments are made and it may get a little crazy. And I'll be the crazy person to play Bama 1H spread for smaller.
Saban has had Lane’s number, maybe not on the spread, but when Lane becomes the trendy dog is when Saban excels. Reminds me of that 2021 matchup when there was a lot of hype around Corral and the Rebs and they got thumped in Tuscaloosa as 15 point dogs when people thought they could win outright.
So I think they should have a decent game plan for the start and then the second half may be where Ole Miss Breaks it open.
Admittedly, if Ole Miss goes down the field and scores in under 2 minutes I will be eating some serious crow. But similar to Clemson I think Bama is playing for their season so I will side with them and their effort on both sides of the ball.
Bet 1: Ole Miss/Alabama 1H U 27.5
Bet 2: Alabama 1H -3.5 -115 Win .5u (Fanatics)
Under the Lights
Iowa vs State Penn (State Penn -14.5, O/U 40.5 7:30PM CBS)
I was very high on this Penn State team coming into the year. Sean Clifford stayed in Happy Valley about 7 too many years and having some fresh blood at QB could only help this team.
If you look at the talent on most State Penn teams and I hate to admit this they are usually littered with high level recruits and usually end up with a good amount of pros. The results during the tenure of Franklin doesn't reflect that talent that he has had, which is disappointing but this year’s team has some serious talent. Pros all over the place.
I have some dinero down on this Penn State team to win the BIG10, make the CFP and even a little schmeckle on them to win the Natty at 25 to 1.
Saying a lot that from a kid that refers to Beaver Stadium as the “Diddle Palace”.
Early in the season Drew Allar has been fine and has shown some upside. He looked very good against West Virginia with that backdoor cover but was less than impressive against Illinois but he didn't have to be with an elite defense performance having 4 picks and only allowing 2.14 ypc. Defense has been great all year though and I expect that to continue.
For Iowa, when they put in the clause for OC Brian Ferentz to average 25 points per game and to win 7 games to keep his job you figured they wouldn't stop scoring when games were out of reach. I apologize to anyone that had Western Michigan with the points last week. Iowa scored a touchdown as time expired, SICK.
But when you look at the Iowa offensive stats they still stink. They get stuffed behind the line at an alarming rate and when they are behind the chains they stink. A true recipe for success if you ask me!
They got outgained by Utah State and Iowa State, and struggled against a lowly Western Michigan team in the first half and then eventually pulled away. I’ve never been a Cade Mcnamara fan and dont think him going to Iowa is going to make them some offensive juggernaut. He was at a way more talented offensive roster at Michigan and they couldn't get over the hump. I almost think if they ran the wildcat and took him off the field they might have had the same success.
Now the one thing I will never do is ever say a bad word about the Iowa special teams and defense. They will always be in the upper echelon in the big ten and in the country. Troy Taylor the punter is insane, at times I think they are better off running the ball and letting him punt on third down and just playing the field position game and win games by only kicking field goals. So this total being 40 is definitely warranted. I would lean under but am scared that if you get one or two defensive/special team touchdowns then you have a good chance of this going over.
When I first saw the line my first reaction was to take Iowa with the points with the total being so low. But the more you talk about it, I'm more convinced about State Penn. Would love this under 14 but I think Vegas is making you think you are getting a great price with Iowa so I wont take the cheese and get in bed with the 14.
Sorry State Penn Fan’s I know you guys prefer the number range of 9 to 11 but 14 is what Vegas is giving me.
The one bet I would really love to make but I don't think the number gets to it is the Iowa TT U. It’s currently at 12.5 would like 13.5 and would LOVE 14.5. The “Diddle Palace” should be absolutely insane with the white out, real shame that they can’t have it for the Michigan game (thanks Fox Execs) and I wouldn't be surprised if we get a little shard out of Cade Mcnamara at one point. Iowa wont stop trying to score but I don't know how they do it. If Penn State can hold them on 1st and 2nd down then their elite secondary comes into play and Iowa doesn’t exactly have Ohio State WRs running around. I’m scared that the Iowa D/ST will get a score here somehow and they will get the cover but I'll live with that. If Penn State doesn't turn the ball over they cover this game. I’ll shop around for a D/ST Touchdown score occuring in the game.
Bet 1: Penn State -14 -120 Win 1u
Ohio State vs Notre Dame (Ohio State -3, O/U 54, 7:30PM NBC)
This was one of the first bets that I made early in the week and it was to back the Irish. Line has bopped back and forth between 3 and 3.5 Meaning there is a sharp money on both sides pushing this back and forth.
I see the angle for the Ohio State sharp side. The defense should be improved again this year and Notre Dame has not necessarily faced as talented of a defense yet so this may be the peak of Notre Dame in the market. And on offense maybe it just took a little while for this offense to get going and now they got a little rhythm and will be able to utilize their all american caliber weapons on the outside.
But to me and I wrote about it earlier in this week is that this game comes down to the QB. The Ohio State offense finally clicked against an atrocious Western Kentucky defense. So if that is what gets this offense going and they have an offensive explosion in South Bend then I’ll take it on the chin.
But I think it's almost a false hope.
The Notre Dame secondary is actually decent, linebackers are great and their d-line is their weakest part. But the Ohio State line has been many times shaky so I think Notre Dame can get creative with some blitzes and coverages and confuse McCord and allow their O to ball control this game.
Notre Dame will always have a good offensive line until we die. This one is not as strong as maybe other years, but it's still the identity of this team. And they should get a decent push here which allows for Sam Hartman to be great in play action and take his shots.
In the end I think Sam Hartman makes more of those big throws that puts his team in a situation to win and McCord struggles a bit in his first start away from home in a raucous crowd in South Bend.
One thing I also want to bring up is the coaching of these two teams. Ryan Day has proven that in a favorite in these big games he hasn't exactly set the world on fire. He made 0 adjustments against Big Blue the past two years when they have lost and could argue that they should have beat Georgia last year but that last two minutes was so poorly managed.
Not to say Freeman has the big game experience, but I think it's something to consider that being at home Freeman which may give him a slight edge. I would lean under as well but I think if Notre Dame starts scoring it gives more possessions for Ohio State and they are just waiting to strike with the weapons they have.
Hopefully get to see this clown “Big Nut” disappointed in South Bend with his sad face paint
Bet: Notre Dame -3 -106 Win 1u (FanDuel) & Notre Dame +3.5 -113 Win .5u (BetRivers)
Note: I doubled up on ND here. I didn't think the 3.5 was going to show up, so I snagged it up after I bet the 3. If you can get the 3.5 scoop it up or else the 3 is fine.
Rounding out the Week
Buying Low and Selling High
Bunch of Teams here that qualify for this type of bet AND
First up is…
Cincinnati +14 -110 Win 1u (12pm)
Oklahoma has looked like world beaters this year and who have they played???? The answer is nobody and because of those crazy numbers this number is inflated. And… Cincinnati just lost to Miami … (of Ohio), shoutout Big Ben. Had Miami last week was a nice cash. Cincinnati moved the ball well; they just struggled to convert in Miami Ohio territory. Cincinnati should be very up for this game since it's their first Big 12 game and Oklahoma may not take them as seriously as they should. Think Cincy is a little frisky in the first half and can keep this one close. Oklahoma still has some issues they just haven't been exposed yet because of the competition they have played.
UConn +21.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM) (3:30PM)
UConn just lost to FIU. Just horrific. FIU is one of the worst teams in college football. I had some expectations for this UConn team and they have not lived up to it. If anything they are back to basement dweller UConn. But when everybody is done with this team I’ll take a flier. This is just a terrible spot for Duke. Duke is actually pretty damn good and you know who they have next week, NOTRE DAME AT HOME. If Clemson wasn't the biggest game that was ever hosted in Durham, then Notre Dame might be and if they beat Ohio State tonight forget about it. If Duke wants to kick UConn’s teeth in they can. However, I think this is a sleepy spot and they just want to get out of dodge. Biggest issue is how does UConn score. It's supposed to be a rainy game which helps us here. I think if they get 10 to 14 we are in decent shape. O/U is slowly coming down and I wish I hit that earlier. But that does mean that a big dog with a low total means that a score or two should get us the cover. Let’s hope we can get a score from this not so great UConn offense.
Pitt +7.5 -110 Win 1u (BetRivers) (8PM)
Pitt has been dreadful. They lost to Cincinnati at home and then lost ugly down in Morgantown. QB Jurkovec has been horrible, he's under 50% completion percentage for the year and has more turnovers than touchdown passes. But you know what Pitt loves to do. They love to play ugly football games, run the ball and muck it up. I think they try to do that here and keep it within the number. Pitt is one of those weird teams that always wins a couple games they shouldn't and this may be one of them.
And last but not least…
UTEP +2.5 -110 Win .5u (PointsBet) (9PM)
UTEP got shellacked by Northwestern and Northwestern might be the worst Power 5 team in the country. But the real bet is more on UNLV. UNLV just had a great win against Vanderbilt as an underdog and think this is a sleepy spot for them. Perfect for the dreadful miners to pull off the upset here.
Other Situational Spots
Maybe a little Sleepwalking here
Charlotte +28 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings) (7PM)
Florida had a huge win against Tennessee and they looked very impressive. But I also think that the Tennessee team is a little down and the Joe Milton experiment may end sooner rather than later. Regardless, I don’t know how much Florida cares about this game. The one thing that scares me is that Florida can be very vanilla and still probably score 35 with how good their running attack is. But I’ll take my chances that Charlotte has a little magic like they did with the terps and keep it within the number.
And whatever the opposite of Sleepwalking is
Tennessee TT O 40.5 -118 WIn 1u (BetRivers) (4PM)
I hit the nail on the head with the Florida/Tennessee handicap. Joe Milton showed his true colors and they got smoked in the swamp. I liked this UTSA team coming into the year but QB Frank Harris has been banged up and there are a lot of other injuries. I think this is a good spot for Tennessee to flex their muscles. I think they cover the spread but like the TT more because I think they keep their foot on the pedal to get some confidence going into the rest of SEC Play. And there is a possibility we get to see QB Nico Iamaleava who is probably one of the biggest recruits Tennessee has gotten in the past decade. Might be on the Tennessee Train next year with him.
Best of the Rest (Chronological Order)
Ga Southern/Ball State O 60.5 -110 Win .5u (FanDuel) (12pm)
Ga Southern laid an absolute egg in Camp Randall with 5 turnovers from QB Davis Brin. They actually outgained Wisconsin and with the public liking the under of a bigger number I’ll take the over. Ga Southern can still score the ball and I think Ball State does their share to help us get over the total.
ArKANSAS/LSU U 55.5 -115 Win 1u (BetMGM) (7PM)
LSU smashed Miss State and ArKANSAS gave up a ton of points to BYU. So your first thought may be to take the over. And I get what makes everybody think that. No chance in hell that this ArKANSAS defense can stop Jayden Daniels and this offense. But this is a rivalry game, maybe not the biggest rival of both teams, but they still play each other tough. You look at the history, 4 of the last 5 have gone under, and there have been some gross scores. ArKANSAS doesnt have RB Rocket Sanders this week so I think they struggle on offense and LSU might be looking ahead to Ole Miss next week which could possibly be the SEC West title game depending on how Saturday at 3:30 goes.
Georgia 1H -25.5 - 117 Win .5u (BetRivers) (7:30PM)
Georgia didn't exactly have a great performance against South Carolina and I don’t know how much Kirby loved it. I think he wants to build some momentum and who better to do it against Trent Dildo and this UAB team. Think if you take the full game spread you may run into Trent running hurry up with 2 minutes left in the fourth being down by 49. So I'll take the first half and hope we get a 27-31 to 0 score at halftime.
Texas/Baylor U 49.5 -115 Win 1u (FanDuel) (7:30PM)
Baylor’s offense is pretty brutal without their starting QB. They scored 30 against the LIU Sharks last week. If you want a good laugh go watch the LIU QB throw a football. So I don’t know how they will score any points against this Texas defense. Dave Aranda always seems to get his guys up for big games. Hopefully Baylor gets some stops early in the game and this is a boring game that we don’t get many updates on. I'm hoping Texas doesn't have an offensive explosion here and cover the number themselves but I think Baylor makes it ugly enough to get this under.
Washington TT O 40.5 -110 Win 1u (BetRivers) (10:30PM)
Not too happy because the number is now under 40 at some books which is definitely something I wanted but I bet it early, so I’ll have to stick with it. This offense is a juggernaut. Cal does play ugly games against teams they are overmatched against. So this might have been a loser from the start but I'll ride the Michael Penix Heisman train and hope he gets his numbers here.
USC TT O 48.5 -104 Win .5u (BetRivers) (10:30PM)
Arizona State is a joke. USC is a wagon. If USC wants to name their number they can. Might be an overlook to Colorado but if Oregon throttles Colorado I think that eliminates that situation. This is whether or not USC is focused. And even if they are not, I still think they can get to this number in their sleep.
Let’s Cover some Bar Tabs today!
-Nick Leone
