Dick’s Picks: Week 3 Roundup

Photo by Cliff Grassmick from the Denver Post

Talked about this last week, but Alabama is really going through it.

Playing in a monsoon obviously doesn't help, but QB Tyler Buchner looked incompetent and they had to go to Ty Simpson and they only put up 17 points against a USF team that is in the lower tier of the G5 teams.

Alabama in recent history hasn't had an issue with their QBs but now it's rearing its ugly head, and now they have an interesting matchup with Ole Miss this week.

Saban has Lane's number but I think the line opening at 7 is very telling.

Now do I think Ole Miss is as good as Texas? No, I think they are a little below them but not by much. Ole Miss will be a one of the more public dogs this week and wonder if you almost have to hold your nose and bet the Tide.

And talking about the SEC, Tennessee STINKS OUT LOUD. I could smell it through the TV of that shit running down Joe Milton’s leg. Joe Milton of old came out to play and they pretty much got squashed.

I don't think Florida is very good but maybe they can surprise some teams at home if the defense can play well and lean on Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne.

And lastly, PAC 12 after dark did not disappoint.

I figured the Colorado bubble would pop next week but it almost got popped last night. Took Shedeur Sanders being superman to have them squeak by Colorado State. Think it's a little concerning for them going forward. They have Oregon and USC in next two weeks and the balloon could be fully popped by the end of those two weeks. Think their defense may show its true colors.

Big Picture

Maybe the SEC isn’t the big bad SEC we thought it was going to be. Georgia was less than impressive against an ok South Carolina team, Tennessee looked horrid vs an average Florida team, Bama looked like a JV team against USF in the rain and Vandy lost to UNLV, WHAT? And then throw in ArKANSAS losing to a suspect BYU team. Ole Miss held on against pesky Ga Tech.

The only team that handled business was LSU but against Miss State don’t know how much we can take away from that. Maybe Georgia gets a little scare going to Rocky Top but unless Ole Miss gives them a great effort they will stroll into the SEC Championship game. Alabama’s season will be on the line this week with Ole Miss coming Bear Bryant

And leads me to the next thing to look ahead to. And we don’t have to go all that far. ITS THIS WEEK’S SLATE. So many implications for the various conferences and CFP outlook with the games below

3 FSU at Clemson

17 Ole Miss at 10 Bama

18 Colorado at 13 Oregon

24 UCLA at 12 Utah

16 Oregon State at 24 Wazzu

25 Iowa at 7 State Penn

6 The Ohio State University at 9 Notre Dame

I’m most interested in the Clemson/FSU, Ole Miss/Bama and Ohio State/ND games. Clemson looked inept at Duke and really haven't had any better competition for us to judge if their offense took a step forward. They do get FSU at home where they have dominated FSU. But this is a different FSU team. If Clemson loses this game might as well pack it in. Players don't go to Clemson to go to the Tony the Tiger bowl and get a couple boxes of frosted flakes as a gift bag.

I won’t talk about it much more but this may be a similar spot for Alabama. They already have a loss, luckily it wasn’t in the conference so they can still wiggle their way into the conference title game but if they lose to Ole Miss this week it’s going to be an uphill climb. They still have LSU, A&M and then Auburn to end the year. And could end up 8 and 4. Which is insane to think of but very real.

And Lastly Ohio State, Notre Dame. Ohio State has looked less than impressive but last week putting up some points does give me a little more confidence in this team. But the big question still is about McCord. Is he magically going to walk to South Bend under the lights and the switch is going to flip? That will be answered this week but it’s going to be tough. And if they lose this game, Penn State and Michigan maybe you bring back that psychopath Urban Meyer. Jim Harbaugh saying “Sometimes people are standing on third base, think they hit a triple, but they didn't,” rings more and more true as time goes by.

And I have to bring up the PAC 12. It might be the deepest conference in college football. 8 teams in the top 25 and it's going to go poof next year. So fitting of a swan song for the PAC 12. What sucks is that they will probably cannibalize themselves and everybody will have two losses and nobody will get into the playoff. Some serious firepower throughout the league and clearly the conference with the best QBs. But going forward I’m interested to see how Colorado navigates the rest of their schedule, how Utah looks with Cam Rising back and whether or not USC, Oregon or Washington can separate themselves from the PAC.

Betting Recap

OverallRecord 42-46-1 -3.82u (Great effort this week to start climbing out the hole)

Saturday Record 14-8 +7.38u (Just what the doctor ordered)

Spread: 3-2 +.95u

TTs: 2-3 +.17u

O/U: 6-2 +3.83u

Parlays: 1-1 +.9u

Teasers: 1-0 +.5u

MLs 1-0 +1.03u

What I hit on the head, A lot more this week than last week (Golf Clap)

LSU & Washington TT Os: LSU got more write up but basically I said if LSU didn’t get it going this week it was going to be a long season and they handled their business. Both of these teams had great first halves and made it easy for us in the second half. Very impressive offensive performances by both QBs

The Under Bets: It’s not fun betting unders but when they win it's that more satisfying because it always gives you a good sweat. UNC/Minnesota was definitely a good sweat. 31 points at half and we cash the under of 50. Only 13 in the second half. And shoutout out the CLV with Nebraska/NIU U. Hit it early and it paid off.

THOSE DOGS ARE BARKING: Bet 3 underdogs +7 or bet and they won outright and not really any sweat with any of them. Oklahoma State and Cincy STINK

And what went SOUTH, VERY SOUTH

Alabama, just the whole program: Took the 1H Spread and Team Total expecting them to come out their hair on fire. Well it turns out a monsoon showed up in South Florida and they sat Milroe. Not a great effort and I’m going to be so mad when 90% of the tickets are on Ole Miss and I’ll be forced to bet Saban and his band of misfits.

ArKANSAS Under: Woo Pig Sooie just absolutely bamboozled me. They laid an absolute egg against Kent State and then decided to pick up the offense and OLE’D every BYU play they could. Think my bias about BYU might have factored into this but both defenses are not very good so it's something to keep an eye on going forward.

And Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good

Last week I had two tougher losses with the right handicap. This week the handicaps were right but it took a little extra to get us over. And for that we have to say thanks.

Thanks Lane, it was 10 to 3 at half time and cashed the over 63. 37 points in the 4th quarter will do that for you. My biggest thing was if Ga Tech could get to 20 this would get over. Well they broke 20 and that's how we got it and Jaxson Dart just wanted to keep scoring.

And Thanks Shedeur, this one was a little crazy since it was 14 to 14 after the first quarter with a total 58.5. So that was an easy one to end the night with. Well, it took Shedeur activating “Brady Mode” to go the length of the field and have his team convert a 2 point conversion to tie the game at 28 in regulation. And then OT allowed it the total to soar over. Interested to see how Colorado’s totals get released as they get into PAC 12 play.

Looking ahead

Season Early Bet Record 6-3 +2.54u

Last Week Early Bets 4-1 +2.88u

Florida +8.5 (W) (Closed at 5.5)

BYU/ArKANSAS U 56 (L) (Closed at 47.5)

CSU/Colorado O 58.5 (W) (Closed at 63.5)

NIU/Nebraska U 46.5 (W) (Closed at 43.5, Total of the game was 46)

Penn State/Illinois U 49 (W) (Closed 47.5)

Bets I have already made

Notre Dame +3 -105 Win 1u (FanDuel)

I feel like it’s groundhog day with all these home dogs getting QBs that either stink on the road or don’t necessarily have the experience in big games. Gonna take the Golden Domers here. Sam Hartman has lived up to the hype. Granted they haven’t played anybody but still to handle business and be as efficient as he has been is impressive. Kyle McCord on the other hand, ehhhh not so much. You have the best non-QB player in college with Marvin Harrison Jr and it doesn’t seem like it should be all that hard to put up some points along with the other skill position players that you have. I am a little scared that maybe this kid has his coming out party on National TV and shows that the buckeyes are not a step behind Big Blue. But this should be closer to a pick or possibly Notre Dame even a small favorite. Understand the pedigree with Ohio State but to ask Kyle McCord to walk into the house that Touchdown Jesus built and win this game is a tall task. Last year when they played Notre Dame played this gross muck it up game because they knew how potent the offense was. I think we get a similar game plan here but with Hartman it can make them be more opportunistic. Might have another play on the total later in the week.

Charlotte +28 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings)

Loved Florida last week as a dog in the swamp. It was probably my best bet, but I’m going to be against them this week. I’m still not a huge Graham Mertz fan. I think that was a great spot for him and this Gators team. I think this is just a sleepy spot for Florida after that huge win. Charlotte is not very good and let’s make that abundantly clear. However, I don't know how much they care. They have Kentucky next week which could potentially be a lookahead spot. Not the same but Charlotte went into Maryland and gave them a game in the first half and then lost steam and hope we get that same effort. Florida could just run the ball and win this game 35 to 0 and Charlotte could absolutely shit down their leg playing in the swamp under the lights. But I’ll take the points, hopefully Charlotte gets to 10 or 14 and Florida is at 35 to 38 points.

Bets I am just waiting for that “football number”

UConn +24

Line is currently at 22/23 would like the 24. Hopefully we get some steam on this. UConn just lost to FIU, I just threw up in my mouth, and Duke has Notre Dame next week. Think we get a good UConn effort here and Duke may just want to play vanilla football and get out of dodge. Depending on the result of ND/Ohio State there is a possibility Duke could be setting themselves up for the biggest game that Durham has ever hosted.

Cheers,

-Nick Leone