Dick’s Picks: Week 3 Betting Primer
Photo by LM Otero from the Associated Press
Hello Friends,
Week 3 is here. Some tough losses in Week 2 and definitely nowhere near the slate as Week 2. Gameday had to go to Boulder for a night game where Colorado is favored by 23 points against CSU. Gameday sucks now, it's such a shame. Desmond Howard is a dunce, poor ole Corso doesn’t know his name and now they bring on Pat McAfee to be the prodigal son. Truck is just feeding him garbage, he’s a pro football guy. Such nostalgia to wake up in the early 2000s in the fall when Corso was calling little kids midgets, saying “F It” on live TV and made us wait for his headgear pick.
Just doesn’t have that same feeling anymore. But I digress, the slate is pretty donkey this week, no games of two ranked teams but still some interesting matchups.
AND HERE WE GO!
Bet Record for Big Games (2-5 -2.72u, O/Us 1-1 -.1u, Spreads 1-2 -.79, TTs 0-2 1.83u)
Noon Kickoff
LSU vs Miss St (LSU -10, O/U 54.5, 12PM ESPN)
The last time we saw LSU they were getting manhandled by FSU in the second half.
The biggest thing exposed was their secondary. The secondary was horrendous and Keon Coleman looked like he was a first round pick.
LSU handled business against Grambling last week and covered a 56 pt spread. Now they Travel to StarkVegas to play an interesting Miss St team.
A moment of silence for the GOAT Mike Leech…. Thank you.
It’s a small sample size, but they have run it way more than they have thrown it in the first two weeks of the season. I think this is where it gets interesting.
Arizona and SELA had far more inferior defensive lines compared to LSU. So if Miss State sticks to this new identity, I think they struggle.
I think stud DT Maason Smith returning to the start lineup is a big deal for LSU which compounds this and makes Miss St throw the ball a little more which they are capable of with QB Will Rogers, 3 year starter with Leach, and can expose LSU’s secondary.
As for LSU, they had diarrhea down their leg every time in the red zone against FSU. Miss St pretty much allowed Arizona to pretty much score every time they passed 40.
This is a good test for LSU to flex their muscles on offense and potentially show some improvement on defense. If they don’t hold their own here it’s gonna be a LONG year down in Baton Rouge. I don't know if they cover the 10 because it's only week 3 and it will take a while for that defense to sure up , but if the offense doesn’t show up against a team with 4 returning starters on D, will be a bad omen going forward.
Bet: LSU TT O 32.5 -120 Win 1u (DraftKings)
Midday Slate
South Carolina vs Georgia (Georgia -27.5, O/U 54.5, 3:30PM CBS)
I’ve been saying this for a while but Spencer Rattler is Basura Caliente (Hot Garbage for my gringos out there).
He’s the wanna be albino son of Barry Bonds with those earrings and wishes he could have as good of a completion percentage compared to when Bonds OBP when he was juicing.
Look up those stats. THEY WONT BE TOUCHED EVER AGAIN. GUY HAD AN OBP OVER .600.
Let me get back on track here though.Towards the end of last year he balled out. I’ll give him his flowers for those efforts. He didn’t play all that bad against UNC in the opener but when they got to UNCs 40 they generated 17 points on 11 opportunities, WOOOOOF.
They were 4 of 14 on 3rd down and 0 for 4 on fourth down and were sacked 9 times by a UNC defense that just let up 34 to App State last week. So I think we are back to our old ways with good ole Spencer.
And if you look at the history of this game the past three years it has not been great for the cocks.
2022, 48 to 7, 2021, 40 to 13, 2020, 45 to 16.
And I expect a similar drubbing this year.
Haven’t really seen much from Georgia and don't think we need to see much. They have handled their business against inferior opponents and this will definitely be a step up in competition but it's not something that should scare them.
It might be one of those games where Georgia just runs the ball and dominates the trenches and you get a 35-42 Score for GA and a 7-10 Score for USC. I lean to the under. I think it's either the South Carolina TT U or the U 54.5.
If I can find a SC 1H TT U 7 that might be your best play, assume there will be a ton of juice on that line. A 27.5 pt spread always leaves a backdoor opportunity for Beamer’s squad that never quits so I will stay away from that.
Does this look like a guy that coaches the best team in the country? Because I sure as hell think it is
Bet 1: South Carolina TT U 13.5 -118 Win .5u (BetRivers)
Bet 2: Georgia/South Carolina U 54.5 -105 Win .5u (FanDuel)
Minnesota vs North Carolina (UNC -7, O/U 50, 3:30PM ESPN)
Shoutout Minnesota, probably one of the worst football games of week 1 with them winning 13 to 10 to Nebraska but thats why im blogging as we speak.
Minnesota’s offense was awful and that was definitely blown out of proportion by the rumplemintz shots I took at City Limits.
Zero explosiveness, 44 pass attempts for 196 yards, GOOD LORD, & 3.6 yards per play, that's the BIG10 I love and know.
They ran the ball more against Eastern Michigan and dominated them but couldn't convert in the red zone. It’s clearly an issue for this team. The defense has held their own the first two games. Not really much offense to hold it against but still they held serve.
Now North Carolina I think has the best PRO QB prospect in the country in Drake Maye. I don't think he will put up the numbers that Caleb Williams will have out in Lala Land but I think he will be a better pro.
The North Carolina defense was very bend don't break vs South Carolina in the opener and held up well. However, in their second game a different story App State threw all over them and actually had some success running the ball as well. And based on the nerdlytics App State actually had a 57% post game win expectancy.
The UNC offense will never be the issue because of Maye but they may have found something more with RB Omarion Hampton having a great day on the ground.
Now you wonder if that's something that they continue to ride or if it's a one off because of the success they had in that one game.
But the handicap for me comes down to the fact that Minnesota wants this to be a big 10 game. Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Field Goal, Fumble, Punt.
Minnesota knows they don't have the horsepower on offense to go into Chapel Hill and get into a track meet with Drake Maye. I don't really like Minnesota's QB, he hasn't impressed me much so I think this will be the big fellas up front ramming their heads until the paint starts switching on the helmets.
I’m going to take the under on that principle. The over is very public play and makes sense. The UNC defense may have shown its true colors last week, and the public sees a 40 to 34 game a total of 50 screams OVER CITY BABY!
I don't know if Minnesota can necessarily exploit that with their QB or if they really want to. And maybe this Minnesota defense gets gutted by Drake Maye and friends but I’m going to stick to the idea that Good Ole Cult Leader PJ Fleck with his Fleck Bucks wants to muck this up as much as possible to give his team a chance. You will know pretty quickly if this bet is done or not.
The Bet: Minnesota/UNC U 50 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet)
Yeah PJ keep running that rock big dawg
Under the Lights
Tennessee vs Florida (Tennessee -6.5, O/U 58.5 7PM ESPN)
I think this is similar to the Texas Tech vs Oregon game last week.
In the fact that we had a team come off a not so great performance, Florida, Graham Mertz was just as useful as a Poopy flavored lollipop, vs a team that people may be a little high on this year.
I think the one difference may be that Tennessee struggled against an FCS team in Austin Peay this week and Oregon ran put up 80 on an FCS opponent.
This is a real simple handicap to me. I’m not a huge fan of Joe Milton.
Guy can throw an orange 100 yards in the air but has the accuracy of Dick Cheney with a shotgun trying to kill an animal.
I think this is a huge test for him going into the Swamp at night. I think there is some hesitancy for people to want to put money on Graham Mertz and it's totally warranted. He looked terrible against Utah. But the Utah defense is pretty good and that's probably one of, if not the most underrated home field advantages in college football.
I think Billy Napier with basically two weeks to prepare for this game will have a gameplan to settle him into the game. The Tennessee defense isn't anything special. I honestly would be surprised if the Gators get the win in the swamp.
I wrote about earlier in the week and got this at 8.5. Now it's down to 6.5 and honestly I like it down to 4.5. I will also be on the Gators ML as well one way or another.
Give me a little Tom Petty in the Swamp and we are ready to roll.
Bet 1: Gators +8.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel) (Would still take it at 6.5 and take it down to 4.5)
Bet 2: GATORS ML +205 Risk .5u (DraftKings)
PAC 12 After Dark
Colorado State vs Colorado (Colorado -23.5, O/U 61, 10PM ESPN)
Colorado is the talk of college football.
If you watch any of Deion’s pregame speeches you can understand why you would want to play for this man. Makes you want to run through a wall. So much so that gameday is going to Boulder when they are a 23 point favorite.
Shedeur Sanders has been great and continued to show that last week against Nebraska. They flexed their muscles at the end of the game but struggled a little bit in the first half. The score is a little misleading of what happened. Nebraska was moving the ball and basically gift wrapping the ball to the Colorado defense, Nebraska actually had 65% post game win expectancy, which may shock some people.
On offense, the running attack has been ok but it's basically Shedeur being amazing in passing down situations. I think eventually this catches up to them when they play the big boys.
But I dont think this is the spot where it happens.
Colorado State is expected to start their freshman QB that was very highly recruited out of high school and the team has spoken highly of him out of camp.
CSU got absolutely thumped in the opener against Wazzu, was on the wrong side of that one, but the bye week should be good for them. Don’t have an overreaction to week 1 and have a good week of practice for their in-state rival.
I don’t think they have the goods on defense to stop this Colorado attack, but I do think they have the offense that could sneak up on Colorado.
I'm going to be over here.
I think Colorado may be looking ahead a little to Oregon and the week after to USC and add in the gameday hype. Colorado State maybe gets some confidence early, gets some points on the board and makes Colorado kick it into that second gear and they pull away in the second half.
Now the biggest thing with this handicap is the play of the freshman QB for CSU. If the kid stinks up the joint you are going to be rooting for a backdoor cover especially if Colorado is a little lackadaisical at the start.
Crowd should be insane too but I'm confident that Jay Norvell and staff can scheme something up for points. Note, this was written before the Jay Norvell comments talking about Deion talking about not taking off his hat or sunglasses but I think if anything it helps the over. I want to take Colorado State +24 but it would be great to see Deion walk across the field take his sunglasses and hat off and shake his hand after they got WHOOPED.
Bet: Colorado State vs Colorado O 58.5 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings) (One of the early week bets I would still take this at 61)
Situation Spots to keep an eye out
Next week will probably be one of the best saturdays to park your tuchus on the couch and melt into with these matchups
3 FSU at Clemson (I know Clemson may stink but they it's still a huge game)
17 Ole Miss at 10 Bama
18 Colorado at 13 Oregon
24 UCLA at 12 Utah
16 Oregon State at 24 Wazzu
25 Iowa at 7 State Penn
And Drumroll Please…. 6 The Ohio State University at 9 the Golden Domers.
And a lot of those teams are playing far inferior opponents with large spreads this week so you may want to keep an eye out. I think they either fall into lookahead/sleepy spots of spots where they want to lay down the law
Potential Sleepy Spots
State Penn -14.5 vs Illinois
FSU -26 at BC (Expected to be gross weather in Chestnut Hill)
Ole Miss -19 vs Ga Tech (Actually have a play for this one not the spread though. Ole Miss just played a tough game against Tulane and saw what happened to the tide in Tuscaloosa last week)
Notre Dame -34.5 vs CMU (CMU is not very good but the hype for Notre Dame is growing. They could easily just run the ball this game and get out of dodge with a gross win, want the 35 though)
Ohio State -28 vs WKU
UCLA & Utah play FCS opponents so lines aren't out yet
Laying the Hammer Spots
Clemson -24 hosting FAU (Think Clemson needs to run them up a flagpole to build some momentum for FSU)
Bama -31 at USF (I feel bad for USF, With that Texas loss i think they need to take out some frustration and it might be here)
Again, just something to keep an eye out for. Don’t think anybody is really in danger of losing but if teams cover on the games where there are sleepy spots wouldn’t be all that surprised.
Rounding out the Week
State Penn/Illinois U 49 -110 Win 1u & Illinois +15 -110 (BetRivers) Win .5u
I wrote this up this earlier in the week and scooped up the 49. Line hasn’t really moved much but I'm alright with that. Illinois didn't look great against Kansas in their stand-alone game and I think the public is pouncing on State Penn. Think it's a good buy low spot for Illinois who actually played State Penn to 9OTs last time they played in Happy Valley and think they follow the same game plan of muck it up and ball control. And Penn State may have a little overlook to Iowa. Penn State can easily handle business here but I think we get a good effort from Bielama’s squad.
Georgia Southern/Wisconsin O 64 -110 Win .5u (DraftKings)
People have been less than impressed with this Wisconsin team in the first couple weeks after the hype of the staff and getting rid of this old Wisconsin run till there is no more cheese in Wisconsin. A lot of people expected them to handle business against Wazzu and they fell flat on their face. Ga Southern on the other hand did what they should against UAB. F’ing Trent Dildo, guy is a joke, fade him till the cows come home. But I’ll be buying low on this Wisco offense that was supposed to be fireworks and now plays against an ok Ga Southern defense and a Ga Southern offense that is one of the better G5 offenses in the country that nobody knows about. Love the upside but still don't know if Wisconsin can get us over the hump of such a big number so took it for smaller.
Bama 1H -17.5 -134 Risk 1u (FanDuel) & Bama 1H TT O 26.5 -125 Win .5u (DraftKings)
Mentioned this above but think Alabama just comes out and puts it on USF. Add on that USF’s new coach was part of the Tennessee coaching staff who won that crazy game in Rocky Top. I think Bama comes out a little pissed off and flexes their muscles. More confident that they get a 24 to 0 or 24 to 3 1st half score and then them scoring 27 but I'll throw that TT in as a smaller play.
Washington TT O 36.5 -120 Win 1u (BetRivers)
I said this last week and we lost by a touchdown but anything under football number with this team is an insult. Vegas can’t set that line because of the total and spread. Michigan State has all the nonsense going on with Mel Tucker and I was not very high on them going into the year. I think Washington comes in for a business trip and gives it to them. Like this up 37.5. Probably will probably be a weird game but I'll keep riding the Penix train.
Miami Ohio +14.5 -115 Win 1u (Fanatics)
Miami Ohio is one of the dark horses in the MAC, thanks for the insight, who gives a shit. Cincy is off a win against Pitt but they still stink. Miami Ohio is a very public dog but I'm going to take my chances. It's an in-state rival and I think we get a better performance from Miami Ohio here than in Miami, Florida. And there is always some backdoor potential with this line.
Northern Illinois/Nebraska U 46.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM)
Another line that I bet early and it has gone down to 43.5. Both teams love to run the ball and both defenses are not that awful. I honestly don't hate Northern Illinois ML here either with how Sims turns the ball over. This has the potential to be a punt fest. 46.5 is very low for a college game so if you get some crazy “college football” plays it may go over but this has the potential for a 21 to 17 game.
Ga Tech/Ole Miss O 63.5 -110 Win 1u
Touched on this game above in the situational spots but this lines up great for an over. Ga Tech showed some promise in their first game against Louisville and showed they might be a scrappy team in the ACC. Ole Miss might not care about this but the offense should still put up points at will against a lackluster Ga Tech defense. Ole Miss defense may sleepwalk and allow a pesky Ga Tech offense to get to 28 and Ole Miss responds and gets to that 38 to 42 range giving us the over. Handicap is based on Georgia Tech giving Ole Miss a little scare and staying within striking distance. If they don’t this may be a 35 to 17 game where Ole Miss is just the better team. But I’ll take the upside with this over and this number has gone up.
BYU/ArKANSAS U 56 -110 Win 1u (BetRivers)
Chalk this one up for a huge CLV (Closing Line Value) Win for #dickspicks. This line is at 47.5 now and this may be where I stop buying the under. I got this on Sunday when the line first opened and it started crashing. Arkansas doesn’t have their Rocket Sanders, top 5 RB in the country, and they were pedestrian against an AWFUL Kent State team. Add in the fact that I hate the mormons and this is the best perfect under. 9pts of value and I would still consider the under here. Arkansas doesn’t have much offense with Sanders as shown last week and BYU is traveling across the country to play under the lights in a SEC Game. May be first one to 21 to win this game.
-Nick Leone
