Dick’s Picks: Week 2 Roundup/Early Week 3 Picks

Photo by Jed Jacobsohn from Getty Images

Big Picture

We might have witnessed the start of the fall of the Alabama dynasty.

Ain’t no doubt about it, Texas was the better team and the question of Alabama not having the elite QB was really exposed. Quinn Ewers made the big throws to get a team to that elite level.

Nobody in the Big 12 looks that great, so there is a legit possibility they get to the playoffs unscathed.

Even if they lose a game they will most likely be in the Big 12 championship and then should handle business.

Alabama on the other hand does have a chance to get to the playoff. I don't think it happens, but if they go undefeated in the SEC and maybe shock Georgia or lose close they have a good argument to be in the CFP.

Speaking of the CFP, Notre Dame looks like they have a legit chance to make it.

Their performance in Raleigh was very impressive. Not an easy place to play.

NC State cut it to 7 and then they blew the game open. They have Ohio State in two weeks and then get USC at home.

They do have a trip up spot with Duke on the road in between those games, but if they handle their business they should be a top 4 team in the country.

Ohio State has looked putrid and USC hasn't really been tested yet so it’s definitely attainable.

This may be the week to push some money across on Notre Dame CFP Futures. Looks like they are in the +500 range.

I know Jimbo has an insane buyout, but I don't understand how this man still has a job.

He needs to be thanking his agent for that insane deal he got.

I really didn't think Miami was going to be anything special this year, but they thumped A&M.

Tyler Van Dyke looked great but my god was that Texas A&M defense awful.

Going to be some tough sledding in the SEC West even though all of the “Big Dogs” have shown vulnerability.

Alabama gets thumped by Texas, LSU fell apart in the second half vs FSU & Ole Miss was not all that impressive in the trenches vs Tulane.

Betting Recap

Overall Record 28-38-1 -11.2u (Really digging this hole as deep as I can)

Saturday Record 6-12 -5.45u (Right to the gulag with this performance)

Spread: 4-4 -.42u

TTs: 0-3 - 3.08u

O/U: 2-1 +.9u

Parlays: 0-3 -1.75u

Teasers: 0-1 -1.1u (Gonna get away from these, really meant for the NFL honestly)

What I hit on the head (Golf Clap)

Miami vs Texas A&M Over was probably the bet that cleared the easiest and was never really in doubt. Both offenses looked great and defenses were non-existent.

Baylor/Utah Under also was spot on. Could have gotten a little dicey if the game went OT, but Baylor came out motivated and Utah’s offense was nothing special without Cam Rising. Could argue they should have lost the game.

Rice +10, Houston came out sleepy and they came out to a huge lead and cover was never really a doubt.

A swing a miss (Might as well light that money on fire)

Nebraska +3, WOOOOF, mentioned above. I tried to be the hero with this pick and that offense shoved it up my hoop. Nebraska did turn the ball over 4 times which sucked but this was the wrong side for sure.

UConn +3, was a little too high on the UConn team and overreacted to Georgia State’s performance against URI. Took the public dog and was swimming with the fishes after the fact.

And the dagger in my back.

Think I hit the handicap of Texas Tech/Oregon right on the head. Was clearly an overreaction from the Week 1 performances.

I got the best of the line, line closed at 4.5, got it at 7, and it fell apart in horrific fashion.

Tech up 9 with 6:16 left 3rd, Oregon makes a little comeback and they kick a field goal with 1:14 to put Oregon up 1, 31 to 30. So we should be in the clear.

Was at the bar wearing my red Shough jersey and said to my new acquaintance that the only way I lose is on some turnover nonsense.

Well, sure enough, Shough gets his arm hit, falls into the arms of a defensive lineman and he walks into the endzone from 40 yards out.

It happens, it's gambling. But some losses hit worse than others and that one stung.

Gonna say this right now Oregon is gonna struggle with these elite PAC 12 offenses.

Right Handicap, Unfortunate Result.

Alabama and Texas was another close second for a dagger.

I said it would be a feeling out in the first half and it was 13 to 9 game at halftime, and the defenses just fell apart in the 4th.

Ewers made the big time throws so I will tip my cap to him but 29 points in the 4th quarter to lose stinks.

Will say, the 2 point conversions gave me the win for the Illinois/Kansas O and in the end that two point conversion from Bama in the 4th might have been karma for that win.

Looking Ahead

So for the lines that I hit early in the week last week (2-2, F me should have been 3-1, potentially 4 and 0 if Texas didn’t go crazy in the 4th Quarter)

Baylor/Utah U 49 (W)

Bama/Texas U 56.5 (L)

Tulane -4 (W)

Texas Tech +7 (L)

Bets I have already made

Florida +8.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel)

I’ll be the first one to admit Graham Mertz is absolute assdoodoo.

But this should be a touchdown spread, so I'll scoop up the 8.5. J

oe Milton going to the swamp under the lights for his first start away from the Rocky Top will probably be rough.

Billy Naper has basically had two weeks to get ready for this game and thinks he should have something in store for this offense to score.

I’m low on Tennessee. Was really high on them last year but they lost a ton. Now Josh Heupel is a great offensive mind but I think this is a tough task for Tennessee.

BYU/ArKANSAS U 56 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers)

Think this is a combo of betting against the BYU offense and ArKANSAS being such a run heavy team.

RB Rocket Sanders was hurt last week and the offense looked terrible. It’s basically QB KJ Jefferson and friends.

Sanders may be alright for this week, but I still think this is a ground pound game for them taking time off the clock.

I have never been a fan of Slovis after he left USC and they looked awful against Sam Houston State. You know they will be better but this will be a step up in class. This number is already dropping so I'm glad I got it early.

Colorado/Colorado State O 58.5 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings)

Talked about Colorado above but I think when they play against teams with decent offenses and ok defenses and the number is under 60, it's gonna be an over bet.

Colorado State got wacked by Washington State who has Cam Ward, thanks for that Cam, and I think Colorado has an offense with some similar potency.

They limited Nebraska to 14 points but Nebraska also had 4 turnovers and still had 352 yards and that offense isn't that great. Confident that Colorado State improves from that week 1 thumping and this Colorado offense keeps rolling.

Northern Illinois/Nebraska U 46.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM)

Will keep this short and sweet. Both of these teams LOVE to run the ball. Meaning the clock keeps running and this game could be done in 2 hours with the new rules.

Northern Illinois’s identity is to shove it down your throat and I think Nebraska knows that and can stuff them on D. I think it's playable down to 45.

It’s a little scary with Nebraska coming off that tough loss against Colorado that they may come out of flat and get down some and then they might have to throw the ball, but think this is a game you don't put on and then you get like 5 or 6 notifications and the game ends like 24 to 17.

Penn St vs Illinois U 49 -110 Win 1u

Illinois got dominated against Rock Chalk Jayhawk last friday and Penn State hasn't really seen any true resistance yet. Very similar to the Game two years ago except Illinois is at home.I think Illinois wants to limit the possessions that Penn State gets and muck this up.

If Penn State gets to 28 Illinois knows they can’t score that much against the Penn State defense.

Biggest issue here is that clearly Franklin just wants to run it up and it is possible with how embarrassing the 9OT game lost was two years ago. This should be ugly so I’ll side with the under.

Apologies for not getting this out Sunday night, some of these lines have disappeared. I’ll get into the better swing of things.

Cheers,