Dick’s Picks: Week 2 Primer

And we are onto week 2. Whatever you do, take every result from game 1 with a grain of salt, unless it's Florida State, then the world is falling and Mike Norvell may be looking for a job in about a month and a half. But in all seriousness, not every blowout is made equal and not every close game is made equal. Do a little digging before you put some dinero on the games. The teams that you think were really good may not actually be that good and the teams you think were bad may not have been all that bad. It’s game one and there is a LONG way to go.

The slate is good, not great. Great one at noon with Texas traveling to the Big House. It really is a dam sham that FOX has the best game at Noon. I understand that they now have their own time slot, this is not the first and won’t be the last time that I rant about this, but Texas Michigan in the Big House is a game that deserves to be under the lights. We need 110K+ people drunk and rowdy while in a maize under the lights. Just a little disappointing but it will still be a good one. The Cyhawk is at 330, what a snooze fest. Only somebody in America can understand how great it is that two teams within the state of Iowa playing the most horrific football you can watch is the national headliner at 330. Then we finish the day with an old rivalry with new blood in Colorado and Nebraska and all topped off by the Tennessee NC State game, potentially giving somebody a statement win for their playoff resume.

Bet Record for Big Games (4-1 +3u, 3-0 O/U +3u, 1-1 MLs EV)

#3 Texas vs #10 Michigan (Texas -7.5 O/U 43.5, 12PM FOX, BIG NOON Kickoff)

This should be a 730PM game under the lights but it is still awesome that we get to see this matchup so early in the season. I really wish it was the Michigan team of last year but beggars can’t be choosers. I know that we usually have the big week 1 games, but in recent memory I can't remember a week 2 matchup that had the reigning National Champion face off vs another playoff team. The one thing that I hope comes from the 12 team playoff is getting more of these big out of conference matchups because there is now some wiggle room to lose games with the 12 team playoff. These games give teams the ability to make statements and if they lose a close game their season isn’t ruined. Now if you lose your first two games looking like DJ U and FSU your season is over.

I think the big question coming into the season for this Michigan team was what they were going to replace JJ McCarthy. Alex Orji appeared to be the man for the job but walk-on Davis Warren took a majority of snaps in week 1. It was not all that pretty and it was against a Fresno defense that lost a good amount of talent from a year ago. So obviously you don’t want to freak out because it is week 1, they probably didn’t want to put tape out for Texas but you would have liked to see a little bit more from this offense. The rushing game in the first half was not effective, it picked up in the second half, they were 4 for 11 on 3rd down and only threw for 118 yards and 87 of that was to TE Colston Loveland.

Defense on the other hand is what we expect from this Michigan team. Rush defense was awesome, allowing 22 attempts for 9 yards and allowing 235 yards on 36 throws with 2 picks and 4 total PBUs. This is what everybody thought going into the season, the defense has the potential to be elite, maybe not as good as last year because they lose some talent to the NFL, they still have some elite level talent in CB Will Johnson and DT’s Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, but can the offense have some sort of production to not leave this defense on an island against the elite competition that they have on their schedule.

Texas on the other hand absolutely rolled Colorado State as they should. I had the over in that game. I thought that Colorado State would have a little success throwing the ball since the Texas secondary was not necessarily great last year, that's why they got roasted by Penix and those receivers in the playoff last year, but they were very solid against this Colorado State team. Only allowing 74 yards passing on 24 attempts and creating 2 turnovers. I don’t think you can read too much into this defense performance because they are a class above Colorado State, but they could have played with their food like other teams and that was not the case. The offense was great which was expected, having three different WRs catch touchdowns was a nice cherry on top and we got a little arch manning sighting.

Handicap

Now with 1 game it’s a weird handicap because you don’t really have enough data to figure out a team's strengths and weaknesses and you have to lean on last year's stats with returning production to find out what you really believe is a true evaluation of a team. If you took the numbers just from week 1 Texas has a clear advantage because their defense matched the Michigan defense and they had the significant edge in offensive numbers. But you dig a little more into the numbers for the real story.

For the Texas defense last year, their clear strength was their rush defense anchored by their DT’s T’Vondre Sweat (Outland Winner) & Byron Murphy II (1st Round Pick by the LA Rams). Both were just spectacular. You could argue they were the best defensive interior combo in the country. They definitely went out and got some meat to replace the big fellas but not all meat is made the same. T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy are that elite “gabagool” , while the guys they brought in more so represent bologna or salami. It’s still some aged Italian meat but it's not what you are bringing over to your family friends who are still wearing the matching Adidas tracksuits and their last name ending in a vowel.

Where this defense struggled was with the pass. 254 Pass YPG was 116th in the country and they were 85th nationally defending the passing play explosiveness. They brought in 1st Team MW performer in Jay’Vion Cole from San Jose State and they bring back Malik Muhhammad & Gavin Holmes who graded out as their two best cover corners. You expect with adding another piece and another year for those corners they will get better but I don't think this Michigan offense has the weapons or the talent to attack them. So this transitions into the part of handicap where you try to picture how Michigan creates a gameplan for them to win this game.

Michigan only threw for 118 yards against Fresno State last week, YIKIES. So to me I don't know if there is the confidence to put the trust in Davis Warren to win this game. They didn’t do it with JJ McCarthy so I think this leads to Michigan wanting to reduce the number of possessions, run the ball and play complimentary football. However this offensive line doesn’t return much from the great offensive line from last year which makes this an even scarier proposition. The offensive line did get better as the second half progressed but even with the Texas D-Line projected to not be as good as last year there still may be some trouble. But I still think Michigan believes this is their path to victory

The play of the Michigan defense will be what determines the outcome of this game to me. I think this defense has to be almost flawless to win this game,but they do have the pieces to do it. The Michigan defensive line is one of the best in the country. However, this Texas offensive line is not slouch either. T Kelvin Banks Jr will most likely be a top 15 pick at tackle and they have experience in the interior line which will be very important vs DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.

I do think there will be moments when Mason Graham and this pass rush get home and new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will bring the pressure, which could end up being boom or bust. Wink does have an elite corner in Will Johnson to help him out though. The one thing that does scare me is that they don’t necessarily have the depth that they did last year. Keon Sabb transferred to Alabama, Mike Sainristil and Josh Wallace are both in the NFL and Rod Moore is still injured and rehabbing. So while the Safety position should be strong with Quinten Johnson and Makari Page I am a little scared about CBs Zeke Berry and Jyaire Hill who did not play much in the past two years matching up against this trio of wide receivers. I know they will be very well coached but to expect them to guard both these WRs along with the creativity that Sark has in general it will be a challenge.

In the end I like the under. Shocking another under here. I will say I saw this number and knew it was going to climb down so I got it at 45.5. I wish I could at 46 or 47, but now it has climbed down to 41.5. I do think Michigan is aware of their limitations on offense and wants to take the air out of the ball as much as they can to limit this Texas offense. The Texas offense has weapons all over the field and the more it is on the field the more likely this Michigan defense will break. The Michigan defense will have its moments, especially if Quinn Ewers struggles with the blitz but I think in the end Texas has too much talent and get themselves into the endzone a couple times here and the Michigan offense struggles to score. I would also lean Texas here laying it. Like it under 7. Love taking a home dog and Michigan has what you would think would be the recipe with a great defense and a team that wants to run the ball. I just don't know how well that is going to go. But if they can have some long drives and keep this texas offense off the field they have a chance to make this a ball game

Bet: Texas/Michigan U 45.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM) (This has dipped down to 41.5 I think I would stop buying the under at 42.5 and may be the over at 40/41)

Might need this guy doing some weird stuff in the stands to help Michigan win this game

Iowa State vs Iowa (Iowa -3.5 O/U 35.5, 330PM CBS) “The Battle for the Cyhawk”

Just want to say one thing. The fact that the SEC on CBS 330 time slot is gone is a travesty. But in week 2 we get IOWA VS IOWA STATE? Did they try to put two of the complete opposite products on the field? Because they did. Athletes and speed all over the place with the SEC and now we got more white guys on a field than on opening day for bow hunting season in upstate New York. What are we doing CBS? God sometimes I really wonder who is in charge of these decisions.

Both teams played ugly games last week. Iowa State won 21 to 3 vs North Dakota, not to be confused with FCS powerhouse North Dakota State who almost beat Colorado, and Iowa beat Illinois State 40 to 0. Little misleading score as they were up 6 to 0 at half and then started to pick it up in the second half. Looks like Iowa added the forward pass to their playbook this year so maybe they won’t be one of the worst offenses to ever play college football.

I don’t really know if you can take much from either game. I really like this Iowa State team coming into this year. Last year their season was thrown into a tizzy when all the gambling allegations came down on them. They lost their starting QB along with a couple other players. But the one thing that came out of last year, while at times it was rough, was how many underclassmen played and the emergence of QB Rocco Becht and RB Abu Sama. They will be pillars of this Iowa State team for the next couple years and for them to have that much experience going into their sophomore year along with a bunch of other underclassmen will benefit this team and program greatly.

The offensive line struggled greatly to generate a push but Rocco Becht and this passing offense were great and surprisingly pretty explosive, uncharacteristic of an Iowa State offense for the most part. It helped that Rocco Becht had some very good receivers in Jalen Noel & Jayden Higgins who both had over 800 yards receiving last year and an emerging tight end in Benjamin Brahmer who was a Freshman All American. So if this offense can work on their running game they are a force to be wrecking with in the Big 12.

The defensive side was solid as they always are and pretty much returns all their key pieces. They do lose CB TJ Tampa who was an All Big 12 performer and is now playing for the ravens so that could be a hit to this secondary. They were elite in the back end at generating havoc and you hope that they can maintain that but improve on their front 6 generating more havoc.

For this Iowa team I think everybody knows about last year. Elite special teams and defense, HORRIFIC offense. And that's an insult to the word horrific. I think there was a game that the O/U was 28, I bet the under and it hit. 28! I think that was a LSU total for a quarter last year. But good news they can only be better. They fired their offensive coordinator, so they can literally only go up. They return pretty much the whole offensive line and get Cade McNamara back this year. Now Cade McNamara isn’t Joe Burrow but they essentially had an offensive guard playing QB last year so this is a definite upgrade. If they do worse than last year I think they are making a conscious effort to see how much they can torture the kids with great people of Iowa City every week.

The defense should be elite again. They lose Cooper DeJean, the great white hope at cornerback, but don’t worry they got another who is awesome whitey in Sebastian Castro, don’t know what exactly he is but I’ll consider him a white cornerback. They return an awesome linebacker combo in 2nd Team All American Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson. They do lose some of their pass rush which could be a concern but they should be great at linebacker and in the backend even with the loss of Cooper Dejean.

Handicap

Always make sure that you check injury news before your handicap. Big news here is that Iowa State is most likely without their top 2 linebackers for this game. They had some other players that were out of the week 1 game vs North Dakota but Iowa State HC Matt Campbell is confident that they will play. When you lose your top 2 linebackers it's always a cause for concern and the guys filling in don’t exactly have that much experience. So it is definitely something to consider.

I mentioned it above but I have some high expectations for this Iowa State team. I have them to win the big 12 at some decent plus odds. I really like what this offense can bring to the table and am confident that this coaching staff can continue to produce a good defense. I wouldn’t worry so much about the scoring in week 1 however the defense not having their top two linebackers is a little concerning. So for a side I would probably learn Iowa -3, it's insane to pick a team that might only score 3 points to cover that but I may throw them in a round robin. Instead I am going to be a crazy person and take over here.

This Iowa offense should definitely be improved and I don't know if these lines are going to catch up to them right away. They probably aren’t scoring 40 again this season but I think for the most part they should be in the 17 to 20 point range average this year. This could be completely wrong but i dont think it's that crazy of a statement. The Iowa State defense doesn’t necessarily provide pressure up front so I think this Iowa offensive line should have some success running the ball and I think they might lead this passing “attack”, I put it in quotations because it may be a leap of faith to call it an attack, but I think they can have some success.

On the other side it does scare me that I am going against this Iowa pass defense. But the one thing that is always a little skewed to me is that playing against the big 10 west is going to inflate your defensive stats. Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State aren’t exactly challenging people with any of their offenses last year. And I think Iowa State has some legit weapons. One thing you can't really argue is that the Iowa defense was great at creating havoc up front. They do lose their top 2 pressure guys though so I think this Iowa State offensive line should give time for Rocco Becht and these receivers to go to work. I don’t think the running game will be all that successful so I think there will be a lot of throwing which helps us with the over. Just a reminder. If both teams get to 17 you probably should cash this bet. Now this game could be 3 to 0 with 2 minutes left in the first half and I'll be saying to myself that I got too cute with it. The public is very heavy on the under, there is some pro money that has pushed this down but I think 35 is a good buy point.

Bet: Iowa State vs Iowa O 34.5 -110 Win 1u (Good up to 35/35.5)

Colorado vs Nebraska (Nebraska -6.5 O/U 55.5, 730PM NBC)

A classic rivalry renewed which is great for college football. College football is better when both of these teams are relevant. Now are either of them any good is another question. Last year’s game was pretty gross. The score is a little misleading with the final being Colorado 36 and Nebraska 14. Nebraska turned the ball over 6 times and a lot of times it was in Colorado territory. Now both teams have gotten better or are expected to be better than last year but who can actually live up to the hype. Week 1 Colorado was down to the wire with a good North Dakota State team and Nebraska took care of business of a rebuilding UTEP. Again a theme of this week is how much you can take from last week and apply to this game without overreacting.

The one thing I did think Colorado improved drastically on was their defensive line and rush defense. 7 TFLs and the only real rushing yardage that North Dakota State had was QB Cam Miller scrambling. Now the back end to me was less than impressive. Travis Hunter highlights the secondary along with Deion’s other son Shilo but they struggled allowing 277 yards on 22 pass attempts. And the thing that is most alarming to me is that pretty much anytime North Dakota State got a real scoring opportunity they punched it in. Not going to undersell North Dakota State here because Cam Miller is a very good FCS QB and they will contend but they aren’t at the level that they used to be at. I do think part of that was Colorado’s improved defensive line and commitment to stop the run so I wonder if that follows over to this Nebraska game.

Now with Nebraska they basically played an FCS team. UTEP has a ton of FCS transfers mostly coming from Austin Peay which is where their coach came from. So I don't know how much you can take from their performance. However, the offense looked different. That is headlined by 5 Star True Freshman QB Dylan Raiola. An efficient 238 Yards on 27 throws and 2 TDs and no INTs. But this will be a different test. Defense wasn’t really tested either. They were very staunch against the run and weren’t really challenged against the pass. So not much you can take from their defense performance.

Handicap

I was talking in a group chat last week and I was hoping that if Nebraska was 3 or smaller it would be an auto play on Nebraska. Clearly the books had other ideas putting out the 6.5/7. Seeing that number almost makes me want to take Colorado. Colorado struggles as a favorite because they can’t close out games since their running game is nonexistent. Which was apparent last week with NDSU. If they could have run the ball, NDSU would have never had a chance to throw that hail mary and make more interesting than it should have been. Now when Colorado are underdogs, unless they are getting completely blown out, they will always be in it because of the weapons that they have. So I like them above 7. 6.5 to 6 to give me pause. I may throw Colorado in as a round robin leg though.

What I will target is the O/U. Now I was on the wrong side of last week's O/U with this Colorado team. My thought being that the Colorado WRs were too good for NDSU to stay in front and that NDSU would be able to score on the Colorado defense. What I was scared about was the pace and that in the end nipped me in the rump. The lack of scoring in the second half and that pick that hit the NDSU players calf. It won on the closing number but lost on the inflated number I had. But I think with this dipping down to 55.5 I think this warrants an over bet. I don't really know who is going to stop the weapons that Colorado has. It might be one of the best receiving cores in college football. Travis Hunter is an alien, Jimmy Horn Jr is a blur and Lajohntay Wester is a big play waiting to happen. Nebraska graded out well against the pass but again, what passing offenses did they play against last year. Last year this Colorado team threw for 393 yards on this defense last year. Colorado couldn't run the ball which I dont think changes this year so it should be more of the same. And this is another year of development for these Colorado weapons and Shedeur.

The big uncertainty for me is the mix of Nebraska’s run vs pass plays and if Colorado wants to be as committed to stopping the run as they were last week. Nebraska has two solid WRs in Transfers Jamal Banks & Isaiah Neyor and after watching Colorado’s coverage last week if those struggles continue there will be some opportunities for Dylan Raiola to throw the ball around. I also think what is concerning for this Colorado defense is how easy it was to score when NDSU got into scoring position. I think Nebraska should have some success moving the ball and then giving themselves the ability to punch it in. Now I brought up the pace nipping me in the rump last week but I do want to say that the play calling could definitely do me in here. If Matt Rhule doesn’t want to put it on Raiola’s arm this could just be a grind. And if Nebraska gets a lead there will be no reason to put the ball in the air and they will just play keep away from Colorado. Regardless of how the Nebraska game script goes Colorado will continue to throw the ball around and with the total being under 56 I think that always gives us a chance. But I hope they have some faith in Raiola and we get some exciting football in Lincoln.

Bet: Colorado/Nebraska O 55 -112 Win 1u (DK)

#14 Tennessee vs #24 NC State (Tennessee -10 O/U 60.5, 730PM ABC)

I mentioned it above but I think depending on who wins this game gives themselves a shot to be a dark horse contender for the playoff. Tennessee has a lot of hype with Nico Iamaleava and NC State with all the FSU nonsense that has transpired and Clemson looking less than stellar means they have a shot at the ACC. This game is being played at the Panthers Stadium so you do expect NC State to probably have a slight home field advantage but there will be plenty of volunteer orange in the crowd.

I would assume this is a public perception but after week 1 I think the public views these two teams in two different tiers. I think people really like this Tennessee team after they thumped Chattanooga 69 to 3, well done, people started saying Nico can win the heisman. Let’s dial it back a little, the kid has uber talent but did it against a team that is nicknamed the Mocs. Again, really hard to not overreact to what you see but just let them play some real football.

On the other side, NC State looked less than impressive against Western Carolina. As 32.5 point favorites they were tied at half, losing going into the 4th quarter and then pulled away. NC State still had over 500 yards of offense, they did throw one pick which did lead to a score but their defense was a little shaky in the beginning. Now was it Tennessee’s 700 yards of offense? No, but if we wanted to crown a champion after week 1; Tennessee, Ole Miss and Auburn would be national champs.

Handicap

Now again, you don’t want to overreact to week 1 and take everything with a grain of salt. Tennessee HC Josh Huepel is an offensive wizard. I loved watching Hendon Hooker play with Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman and all those weapons and I think Nico and this offense have that potential and may be even better. I was a little confused as to why Nico didn’t start last year instead of Joe Milton, but this year it’s his team and he looks like he is in control. HOWEVER, let’s take it one step at a time. He played very well against an Iowa defense in a bowl game and then smoked Chattanooga. Let’s put him in a normal situation with a week to prepare against him with some tape out there against a good defensive coordinator. Probably one of the more underrated coordinators in the country that runs the 3-3-5 defense which can sometimes be very challenging for some QBs is Tony Gibson for NC State. Now the defense for NC State lost their heart and soul in Linebacker Payton Wilson but returned a ton of production in the secondary. There are some question marks in the front 6 with this team which is a little concerning especially if Tennessee can run the ball as well as they did in week 1. Tennessee had 700 yards against the Mocs and 300 of them were on the ground. So that to me is a little concerning but I think that this 3-3-5 with Tony Gibson will give Nico some looks he may have not have seen before.

NC State’s offense last year was abysmal. QB Brendan Armstrong was terrible. And I think bringing in QB Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina is a huge upgrade. I did have some questions about how elite he was without his coach Jamey Chadwell but he performed well week 1. Albeit against Western Carolina but he picked it up and ended up having a nice game. Now how does that matchup against this Tennessee defense? Tennessee probably has the best player on the field in DE James Pearce Jr. who will most likely be a top 5 pick this year. He had 13 sacks last year and was unstoppable. This defensive line should still be very good. They did lose DE Tyler Baron to Miami which hurts and may allow for some teams to double on James Pearce more this year. They were also very good against the rush and were monsters at creating TFLs and sacks. Now NC State does bring back 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line. Their loss is at center who was drafted by the Eagles, but they get C Zeke Caroll from the transfer portal who started 31 games at ND. So I do think this offensive line should be up to the task. They didn’t look all that great against Western Carolina, but it’s week 1.There are going to be moments where they struggle but I think James Pearce not having Tyler Baron on the other side allows for NC State to put more concentration on him and limit his damage on the game.

The question coming into the year with this Tennessee defense was the secondary. They pretty much lost all their CBs production and brought in CB Jermod McCoy from Oregon State who was highly sought after in the transfer portal. McCoy should be good but a lot of other question marks at corner and at safety. So I do think this is where this team can attack Tennessee. Wr Kevin Concepcion was a Freshman All American and has the potential to be an All American this year, they get TE Justin Joly out of the transfer portal who has a bunch of upside and WR Noah Rogers is back after going to Ohio State for a year. So there are weapons for NC State if Grayson McCall can get them the ball they should have success against this defense. The passing numbers were not great for NC State last year but this is a totally different unit.

I’m going to take the Pack + the points here. I think there is a little too much hype here with Nico and this Tennessee team. If he is as good as everybody says he is, he can still light me up here but the secondary from Tennessee may still let him down. I’m willing to take a chance on the hype train here, especially since NC State wasn’t great last week. This line has now steamed up to 10 which to me seems a bit rich. But there is also the possibility this line should be at 14. We will know by the end of this one. And I have no problem admitting I'm wrong on it. I bet it at 8, thinking that was the top end, which it clearly wasn’t, and bet it at 10 again.

Maybe I'm a crazy person who thinks that NC State can give Tennessee a run for their money here. If their defense plays well, maybe forces Nico into some awkward spots and they take advantage of this secondary you never know. It is both pro and public money that has pushed this up to 10 but there has been a little buyback and now it is hovering around 9.5/9. I’m going to be honest I have not seen any gambling personalities or talking heads take NC State other than Stuckey so I am slowly starting like this. If everybody knew the answers it wouldn't be gambling.

Bet: NC State +10 -112 Win 1u (DK) (Bet down to 9 if you are crazy enough to take it)

Please Nico, play like a tool like you are in this photo

Best of the Rest

#23 Georgia Tech vs Syracuse (Ga Tech -3 O/U 61.5, 12PM ACCN)

The Georgia Tech win against FSU looks worse and worse as we go forward. So maybe Georgia Tech isn’t that great. They had their moments last week against Georgia State but that was the ultimate let down game that they still covered miraculously. Syracuse looked like a whole new offense last week with Kyle McCord under center, they should have covered, goddammit F ME, had them -17 and they won by 16, but the one glaring weakness was their rush defense. Ohio was supposed to abysmal and they rushed for over 200 yards. Georgia Tech has a legit rushing attack. I do worry about pace in this game but I think we get some points in the dome. Syracuse let up 22 to Ohio last week Georgia Tech’s offense should put up more and I think Syracuse can get to 30 as well.

Bet: Ga Tech/Cuse O 60.5 -115 Win 1u (BetMGM)

ArKANSAS vs # 16 Oklahoma State (Ok State -10 O/U 61.5, 12PM ABC)

ArKANSAS put up 70 last week against the blind and deaf kids last week. I’m not necessarily buying into the hype that this team is good but I do think this offense has a potential to be good. Bobby Petrino is back at ArKANSAS which is hysterical. He might not be the greatest human being but he has always been a great OC. He has QB Taylen Green from Boise State who fits his offense and RB Ja’Quinden Jackson from Utah who is a battering ram. I think with his playing call they should be good on offense. Admittedly, I’m not the biggest Oklahoma State fan because I think QB Alec Bowman needs to go start selling life insurance or work for Deloitte but both of these defenses are the weak parts of these teams. Think we get some points in Stillwater as both defenses struggle.

Bet: ArKANSAS/Pokes O 62.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel)

Obligated to post this picture now that he is back at ArKANSAS

South Carolina vs Kentucky (Kentucky -9.5 O/U 42.5, 330PM ABC)

South Carolina was woeful against a lowly Old Dominion team last week. And this may get ugly for them. They struggled to throw the ball and could only run the ball. Well, Kentucky is pretty damn good at defending the run. They have a big fella by the name of Deone Walker that will be playing on Sundays who is an absolute load up the middle. I think South Carolina struggles to score here and Kentucky has Georgia on deck. If they get up early it may be a vanilla game plan in the second half to get out of dodge here. Think this is an ugly defensive game.

Bet: Cocks/Kats U 42.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM)

How can you not love a big man wearing a single digit

MTSU vs #6 Ole Miss (Ole Miss -43 O/U 63, 415PM SECN)

Weird time for a game but Ole Miss is a goddam wagon on offense. I think they have the chance to be as good as the LSU offense from last year. If anybody wants to get on the Jaxon Dart hype train you are more than welcome. MTSU beat Tennessee Tech by 7 last week. WOOF. Not a good sign of things to come. I’m probably sipping the kool aid here but I think the Lane Train wants to pad some stats for Jaxson Dart and his heisman campaign. There could be some absurd Jaxson Dart numbers here. Might start tweeting out it’s a “Dart Party in Oxford” when he gets hot. They scored 76 last week and I wouldn't be shocked if they go for 50 or 60 this week. Sharp money is on the over but I am just going to take the team total O here and not worry about MTSU scoring. All aboard the Lane Train

Bet: Ole Miss TT O 51.5 -125 Risk 1u (ESPN Bet)

USF vs #4 Alabama (Bama -31 O/U 64.5, 7PM ESPN)

The Alabama offense was cooking last week against Western Kentucky and I don't think they will be met by much resistance here either. The USF offense is very good for G5 standards and plays at lightspeed but the defense is dreadful. I think the results from last week roll over to this game in terms of the Alabama offensive performance. I liked the total at 63 but as it climbed I didn't like it as much. I do however like another team total over with the Tide. Give me some points Kalen Deboer you wizard.

Bet: Bama TT O 47.5 -115 Risk 1u (BetRivers)

Houston vs #15 Oklahoma (Oklahoma -27.5 O/U 49.5, 745PM SECN)

Houston was horrible last week. I liked UNLV going into the season but did not expect that result. Willy Fritz is a really good coach but he may have a complete rebuild here. And for Oklahoma not all 51 to 3 games are made equal. I was on the Sooners because Temple is dreadful, which is true, but they turned the ball over 6 times which led to some easy points and the cover. The Oklahoma offense was 1 for 12 on third down. Yikes. I understand it's week 1 with a new offense but that's not acceptable against temple. So to me, the offense wasn’t impressive. Now that could change this week but as long as Houston doesn’t turn the ball over 6 times here I think they are going to have to earn their points and the Oklahoma defense will stand strong. Give me the under.

Bet: Cougs/Sooners U 49.5 -110 Win 1u (BetMGM)

Boise State vs #7 Oregon (Oregon -19.5 O/U 61.5, 10PM PEACOCK)

Oh games on the cock. I really despise them. Going to have to weasel my way into an illegal stream to watch this one. Before I talk about the duckies, I need to give one guy his flowers. RB Ashton Jeanty for Boise is for REAL. 6 TDs last week! I don’t care who it is against, it's still insane. But this is a little different, just a smidge. Georgia Southern is nothing special and for this Boise defense, that was supposed to be improved, to give up 45 to a nobody Georgia Southern offense is concerning. Oregon moved the ball fine last week it was just they couldn’t punch it in. I think they may have read the newspaper clippings this week and I think they make a statement. I Took their TT O but would support the duckies on the spread as well.

Bet: Oregon TT O 40.5 –115 Risk 1u (FanDuel)

Texas Tech vs Washington (Wazzu -1 O/U 66.5, 10PM on FOX)

Ahhhh, kind of, sort of PAC 12 after dark. Or the closest thing we will get to this year. Both Teams were in shootouts week 1 against not so great FCS teams. Wazzu scored 70 and Texas Tech barely won by scoring 52 against Abilene Christian. The number says there will be fireworks and I will be joining in. Both teams love to throw the rock around and this will be like an old Big 12 game when the totals were in the 70s and 80s. Think we get that here. This may be an overreaction to last week and I believe this was Rico’s lock of the week which terrifies me but we will ride it out.

Bet: Texas Tech/Wazzu O 66 -115 Win 1u (BETMGM)

Cheers,

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-Nick Leonne