Dick’s Picks: Week 2 Primer

Photo from ESPN

Hello Friends,

Week 2 is here! Bunch of great games for week 2. Start it at 12pm with Deion’s boys and then make sure your ass is on the couch or in a barstool to watch the night slate. And there could be some fireworks at the 3:30 slate. This will serve as more of a betting primer with some previews for the games and will have another blog post for the more typical #DicksPicks newsletter to see all the plays. AND HERE WE GO!

Early Slate

Nebraska vs Colorado (Colorado -3, O/U 58.5 12PM FOX Big Noon Kickoff)

Gus Johnson gets Shedeur Sanders and this Colorado offense on back to back weeks, might be worth cracking a pop just to hear his excitement about it.

Any questions about Deion’s boys moving up in class from FCS to D1 were certainly answered.

Shedeur Sanders throws an absolute beaut of a ball and Travis Hunter is a unicorn.

The biggest question for this game for me from a handicapping perspective though and the line indicates this, is how do evaluate a team from one data point that was just spectacular and so opportunistic.

Add on top of it that Nebraska played the most big 10 game ever, 13 to 10. Defense did look good but it’s against a big 10 offense that isnt State Penn, Ohio State or Michigan.

This is an old time rivalry so there is no lack of motivation.

I love Deion and his crew but what worries me is that Nebraska may just ball control the shit out of the ball and limit Colorado’s explosiveness.

It’s going to be the most public bet game and I think I’m gonna be on an island by myself.

F It, scared money don’t make no money.

Bet 1: Nebraska +3 -110 Win .5u (Caesars)

Bet 2: Nebraska TT O 27.5 -125 Win .5u (DraftKings)

I’m backing this guy. GREAT way to start the day

Mid-Day Slate

Ole Miss vs Tulane (Ole Miss -7.5, O/U 66.5, 3:30PM ESPN2)

Probably one of the more intriguing matchups from the day.

I am a little down on Tulane after they lost their two great linebackers and their stud RB Tayjae Spears. But QB Michael Pratt shoved it up my hoop sandpaper finish, shout Biz, last week.

I had South Alabama +7 and ML and that didn't have a chicken dicks chance in hell of covering.

Michael Pratt looked phenomenal so I have to tip the cap when it's due.

So the firepower is there for Tulane still, but it's a huge step in class to a dark horse SEC contender.

Ole Miss will have a great offense with the Lane Train. RB Quinshon Judkins is that dude, and WR Tre Harris from La Tech showed out last week. The total is set high but it's warranted.

I still think this Tulane team is not what it was last year, so I jumped on Ole Miss -4 when they opened the terrible line and it shot up to 7/7.5.

I think Pratt being a one man band can get some points for us with their offense so I think there is a good chance we get a shootout.

But, in the end, I took Ole Miss TT O 37.5.

There is no lookahead for this team which is good and I think Tulane will throw the kitchen sink at Ole Miss which will force this to be a 4th quarter game making Ole Miss score some points.

I think a line closer to 39.5/40.5 is more fair. If you want to target that over, I would see if you can get a 66 flat if possible and completely understand taking Tulane +7 and the hook if you can get it.

Bet 1: Ole Miss TT O 37.5 -120 Win 1u (PointsBet)

Bet 2: Ole Miss -4 -110 Win 1u (PointsBet) (This is on my card but at 7.5 if you want a side i would take Tulane. I may get greedy at try to middle this)

Texas A&M vs The U (A&M -3.5, O/U 51, 3:30PM ABC)

Both teams had super disappointing seasons last year.

This year they look to turn the page and week 1 was definitely a step in that direction.

Both teams handled business against inferior opponents, A&M beat UNM 52 to 10 & THE U beat Miami Ohio 38 to 3. Both good signs for team’s last year that had some horrid losses to non-power 5 opponents.

The U lost to Middle Tennessee State, yeah that team that had Giddy Potts beat MSU in the tourney a while back.

I will say there are a lot of unknowns going into this game.

Texas A&M has a new coordinator and with Bobby Petrino who has a history of elite offenses which is what A&M needs and the U has kind of been mediocre, and QB Tyler Van Dyke hasn’t taken that next step which a lot of people expected when he finished the 2021 season strong.

Sharp money has pushed this line down to 3.5 which is warranted. I think Texas A&M has the potential to take a step up with Petrino calling the calls but to be favored by more than 3 early in the season is tough to ask of this team.

That being said, I think A&M takes that step forward along with them playing a little faster and Miami being at home can get some points on the board, so I think we can cash that over 51.

I totally understand taking +3.5 with Miami, wouldn’t be shocked if the line is at 3 tomorrow.

Bet: Texas A&M/The U O 50.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel) Would play up to 51.5

Relying on this guy to get us points today. Hope his play calling better than his motorcycle driving with a girl riding behind him or else this is what I will look like at the end of the day

Night Games (Get Your Two Viewing Screen Setup Going we got 2 Great Games)

Texas vs Alabama (Alabama -7, O/U 53.5, 7PM ESPN)

Boy oh boy have the college football gods blessed us with this one in week 2.

Last year, if Ewers doesn't get hurt and they properly call the safety on Bryce Young, Bama probably loses that game.

This is the best roster Texas has had in quite some time.

With Texas moving to the SEC, it appears that they are actually building so that they can compete in the SEC. So we don't have to hear “TEXAS IS BACK”, and they go shit down their leg and let teams like Baylor and Kansas St stomp on them.

And on the other side you have Alabama. Lots of questions about the QB, Jalen Milroe played great against MTSU, DON’T CARE.

The biggest question will be if Texas can keep him in the pocket and force him to be an accurate passer. He hasn’t proven that to me but maybe this is the game he shows out.

I took under 56.5 earlier in the week and it has steamed down to 53.5 but still think 52.5 is actionable.

To me it seems like kind of an ugly first half where teams are feeling each other out and then the second half scoring will open up.

I fear that Texas is almost becoming a public dog and Saban has that “Rat Poison '' that he can feed to his team. But the biggest part of the handicap for Texas is whether QB Quinn Ewers can make those big time throws that win you games at that elite level.

Before he got injured last year vs Alabama, he was great but haven’t seen that same type of Quinn Ewers since. There was nothing in the Rice game to make you think that he made those improvements and thinking that it magically changes going into TUSCALOOSA with 100k crazy natives of Alabama, 1K Roll Tide Willie MFers and Texas’s band being upper deck (well played Alabama).

Yeah I’m good. I’ll take the L if Mr. Ewers puts his nuts on the table. If Ewers and Milroe are making big boy throws then this sails over.

Bet: Texas/Alabama U 56.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel) (# isn’t around but playable to 52.5)

Oregon vs Texas Tech (Oregon -6.5, O/U 68.5, 7PM FOX)

This is the game I am most excited for.

I loved Texas Tech going into the year, was all over their Win Total, was my dark horse Big 12 winner and had a little dart on their QB Shough to win the Heisman.

Welp, the Cowboys spurred me in the ass and proved that Laramie is one wonky place to play.

I also wasn't as high on Oregon because of an iffy defense and Bo Nix losing his coordinator Kenny Dillingham who departed to be the head coach of Arizona State.

But I will stick to my “guns” with these Red Raiders.

Oregon put up 81, against some scrubs and think they are just gonna roll into Lubbock and have Bo Nix and this prolific offense go up and down the field.

As the great Coach Corso (really need to get the guy off Gameday) would say “NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND”.

Add in its Lubbock at night with a great crowd (go check out the Bo Nix stats on the road. He's an absolute joke) and Tyler Shough was run out of town because he wasn’t good enough to get time at Oregon, it’s all brewing for an upset in Lubbock.

I think it’s a perfect overreaction line from week 1. I think if Tech handles their business in Laramie this line is closer to 4. Vegas is laying the trap.

Give me Texas Tech Spread and ML in a parlay or two. Guns Up into the Lubbock Night!

Bet: Texas Tech +7 -124 Win 1u (DraftKings) (Actionable to 4.5)

“Puddles” is going to be in puddles after the Red Raiders go duck hunting in Lubbock.

Best of the Rest Plays

Baylor/Utah U 49.5 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings) (Another one got it earlier in the week don’t love it as much at 46.5, like it more at 47.5)

Baylor +7.5 -109 Win .5u (BetRivers)

Baylor’s QB is out, and Baylor got embarrassed at home, they lost as 28 point favorite to a QB in TJ Finley that I didn’t know could complete a forward pass. Also, played Baylor +7.5 for .5u which is another buy low sell high pick on Utah team that looked great.

I don’t think QB Cam Rising is playing, I think Utah cares more about the PAC 12 and has the opinion that they can win this game without him and just get out of dodge.

Baylor should be motivated and get a better effort in the trenches and think Utah sleep walks through this game. If Cam Rising is announced I'll eat some crow and probably get smoked on both bets.

Washington TT O 48.5 -125 Win 1u (DraftKings)

Washington is my baby this year.

I have QB Michael Penix Jr 18 to 1 to win the Heisman, he's now 8 to 1.

This offense is electric. Ain't nobody stopping them, they can only stop themselves.

Anytime they are under a nice football number I’m taking their TT O until told otherwise.

Same thing can be said about USC. They are 49.5 and that hook scares me but wouldn't be shocked if they hang 70 on Stanford.

UConn +3 -106 Win 1u (BetRivers)

Georgia State got a run for their money from URI last week.

Jim Mora is building something at UConn and I think UConn can muck it up and win this game outright.

I like what I saw out of them vs an underrated NC State team.

This might be a public dog and overreaction to week 1 but I’ll ride with the Huskies.

Rice +10 -115 Win 1u (BetRivers)

Houston should have lost this game last year. Sleepy spot for Houston with them opening up Big 12 play with TCU next week.

I don’t know how much they care and think Rice should be motivated after last year's mishaps and they had their moments when they held their own vs Texas.

Arizona +9.5 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings)

Miss St is gonna take a while to change personnel after going away from the air raid (RIP Mike Leach: The GOAT).

Arizona has an explosive offense and Miss St lost a ton in the secondary so I think they can keep this within the number and maybe even win this game.

ASU +3 -107 Win 1u (BetRivers)

Oklahoma State stinks.

Deion’s son might be the exception, but very rarely does the Coaches son play QB in college .

That might be the case with the OK State and Mike Gundy. This kid STINKS.

I like Kenny Dillingham and the Freshman QB Rashada has a lot of potential. Take the 3 and I’ll have them ML in a parlay later

Cheers