Dick’s Picks: Week 12 Betting Primer

Photo by Naji Saker from The Oregonian

Hello Friends,

It may be a little bit of a lackluster slate today but that doesn't mean there aren’t some huge games for the CFP implications. 330 in rocky top and 730 up in Corvallis highlight the slate. Rivalry week is next week to end the season and we are in WEEK 12! Appreciate it while we got it, but HERE WE GO!

Bet Record for Big Games (38-27-2 +9.24u, O/Us 18-7-1 +9.76u, Spreads 13-12-1 -.75u, TTs 7-8 -1.71u, ML 2-0 +2.03u)

Last Week (5-0 +4.5u, O/Us 3-0 +3u, Spreads 2-0 +1.5u) (Fire Flames)

“Fox Big Noon” Game

#3 Michigan vs Maryland (Michigan -19, O/U 50 12PM FOX)

Michigan handled business last week against the clowns of State Penn. You think they would catch onto the fact that Michigan threw 1 pass all of the second half and maybe they would adjust accordingly but that was not the case. So little game James continues to be little game James and that won’t change anytime soon. So with Harbaugh not coaching and them traveling to Maryland before Ohio State, you have to wonder about the distractions and potential overlook here.

Maryland comes into this game limping to the finish line. They have won one game since the beginning of October with some very winnable games. They were competitive against Ohio State in the first half and fell apart and then lost to Illinois & Northwestern as 14 point favorites. They were then thrashed by Penn State and then struggled with a lowly Nebraska team last week. So coming into this it does not look great for the Terps. They have won 6 games so they will go to a bowl but this should be their super bowl. They get Michigan with an overlook to Ohio State so maybe they can sneak one here but it's going to be a tall task.

When Michigan has the ball

It really was so comical to me that Michigan literally ran 33 run plays in a row and the simpletons at State Penn couldn’t figure it out. I guess if ain’t broke don't fix it. And that kind of rolls into this game. Maryland struggles against the run and that might be amplified here. Sub 85 in Power Success Rate, Stuff Rate and Line yards. Definitely some concerning metrics with the bullies of Ann Arbor rolling into town. The one thing that Maryland does do well is limiting the explosive play but Michigan isn’t that type of offense. I think that is epitomized with them running the ball 33 times consecutively and State Penn not really having a response. They are content with being methodical and just bludgeoning their opponents and I don't think this matchup lines up well for Maryland here.

When Maryland has the ball

Talked about it last week but it's still hard to determine how inflated these numbers are for the Michigan defense. Unless State Penn really thrashed them nothing was going to change my opinion of this defense. They are somewhere between good and great. Where it seems they can be exploited is the explosive play. Every metric is pretty much top 10 other than Explosiveness which they rank 68th, Standard Down Explosiveness and Passing Play explosiveness which they rank 89th and 107th respectively. I really didn’t think State Penn had the goods last week to exploit that potential weakness and that was apparent. I think people overreacted to the State Penn thumping of Maryland. State Penn just has Maryland’s number. The offense has zero explosiveness. Now Maryland is right in the 50s with explosiveness. I don’t know how well they are going to be able to run the ball, maybe Roman Hemby can break a big run here or there but I think this will be on Tualia and co through the air. So can they hit the big plays through the air? The big thing is first with the pass protection. The numbers do not line up great for this Maryland offensive line which makes me think Tualia will be running for his life, something similar to the State Penn game. I also think in the back of HC Mike Locksley's head he has to know that if this becomes a slugfest they don’t stand much of a chance in the trenches. So can they move Tualia out of the pocket and convert some of the big plays down the field with the pass. That's the million dollar question for Maryland here. If they can protect Tualia and he doesn’t turnover the ball there is no reason that they can’t keep this interesting. I tend to think somewhere in the middle, that they should have a decent game plan to keep Tualia upright and hit some plays but the talent of this Michigan defense will show through and we will see some mistakes from Tualia.

Handicap/Betting Outlook

Quite possibly the biggest sandwich spot that I can remember in recent history. The Ohio State game is always HUGE but with Ohio State having a witch hunt to expose the sign sealing of Michigan and that leading to Harbaugh not coaching this game and that there are some serious distractions. Add in the fact that last week was clearly an emotional win with interim HC Sherrane Moore crying and saying how much he loves Harbaugh and makes you wonder about how much Michigan actually gets up for this game with Ohio State being such an emotional game next week. So the biggest thing is from a headspace perspective can you really pinpoint how focused Michigan is on this game. And I think this is why there is some sharp money pushing down this Maryland line. Just a supreme situational spot and seeing 3 touchdown spread is an autoplay. The only thing that worries me is the thumping by State Penn and I don't think this is your traditional look ahead spot with the off the field nonsense. I think there is some aspect where Michigan just wants to bulldoze everybody in their way and silence the haters/doubters about the sign stealing and Maryland might be one of those teams that they can just impose their will on. So I will most likely stay away. State Penn was also in a lookahead spot and they thumped Maryland. I might almost be tempted to take Michigan if it gets down to the 17/18 range.

I’m more interested in the total here. I think after last week’s game for both teams going under and neither game being all that pretty there is definitely some public support for the under here. As of Wednesday 75% of the bets are on the under. So I will be a little contrarian here with the over but I think there is a legit path to get over the number, the logic may be a little crazy but bear with me. To me I think Michigan can roll out of bed and get 35+ here and I don't know how focused they have to be to do that. They should be able to run the ball at will and then hit some passes if it is even needed. I would like to think Maryland watched the tape and would hopefully get smart enough to stop 33 run plays in a row but you never know. So that is definitely one part of it. But the bigger thing is the fluctuation with Tualia. Tualia has his moments where he can make some great throws and then some plays that make you wonder if the guy has ever played football. So I think we get some turnovers here from Tualia here giving Michigan a short field and think the game plan should be decent enough to allow for them to get some big plays and have some scoring opportunities. A big thing here is if Maryland can get a score or two early here it probably wakes Michigan up. There is always the possibility Maryland lays an egg here and Michigan can just sleep walk through this game and this thing soars under. But even with that I think Michigan should be able to score and it forces Maryland to throw the ball which has so much variation of good and bad which is what I think favors the over. Now there are projected winds here which may affect the total with the ability to throw the ball and field goal kicking. I honestly don’t think there will be much field goal kicking here, if it is then this over has no chance and I think Tualia should be ok to get through the wind here. So I'll be on the opposite side of a lot of people here but I’ll take my chances with the over. Waiting for a good number but I am alright with taking 50. If I don’t get a great number I will probably take the Michigan TT O.

Bet: Michigan/Maryland O 49 -110 Win 1u

Maybe Harbaugh sneaks onto the sidelines and is part of the chain gang to help his Wolverines out

#1 Georgia vs #18 Tennessee (Georgia -9.5, O/U 58.5 330PM CBS)

Two teams coming off two vastly different results. Georgia absolutely flexed their muscles on Ole Miss. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart's injury only compounded it but just a dominant effort on both sides of the ball. 610 yards with 10 yards per play and Ole Miss with only 352 yards on 5.1 yards per play. Just a shit pumping with a 52 to 17 score in between the hedges.

Tennessee comes in being on the opposite end of an ass kicking. I stayed away from the side after I leaned Tennessee, tried to stay away from my bias for Mizzou, but they got their doors blown off. Wasn’t exactly the worst offensive performance with 350 yards averaging 6.1 yards per play but the three turnovers were not great but the defense was horrendous. 530 yards with 255 being on the ground. This Tennessee defense had held up great against the run this year but something was amiss last saturday. Missouri RB Cody Shrader set an SEC record with 200 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving. The kid was playing for Truman State at one point and was a preferred walk-on. Didn’t know Truman State was a real college but you learn something new every day. Tennessee was embarrassed, maybe a little look ahead to Georgia at home but just a thrashing by Mizzou at home. Have to give credit where credit is due.

When Georgia has the ball

I’ve been on the Carson Beck train the past couple weeks and he has been great. Now you could argue that maybe the second best player in the country is back with Brock Bowers, potentially fully healthy this week, and you imagine this offense only gets better after two solid performances without him. These Georgia offensive numbers continue to get better. They are great in standard downs, in the case they do get behind the chains they are great as well. They aren’t exactly the most explosive offense and do struggle with creating that initial push. One thing that Tennessee does excel, less than last week pounding, is dominate the line of scrimmage. Top 20 in Power Success, Stuff Rate, Line Yards, Havoc created in the front 7, Rushing Plays PPA & success rate. So this defense line has been great all year. I lean towards last week being just an off week and that this defense will rebound with such a big matchup. The biggest thing for this Tennessee defense is can they slow down this passing attack. With them matching up well in the trenches can they hold up on the outside and potentially get some pressure to make Carson Beck uncomfortable. I don’t think anybody can match up one on one with Brock Bowers. It is more containing him but with Ladd McConkey being healthy and these other wide receivers looking good this will be a tall task for the Vols. I don’t know if anybody is necessarily stopping this offense but more so if you can contain them especially if Brock Bowers is truly 100%.

When Tennessee has the ball

Really pains me that I have to continue talking about QB Joe Milton every week but here we are again. I don’t think he is all that good. It’s so hard to fill in for Hendon Hooker and he wasn’t the guy to do it but sometimes you have to deal with the cards you are dealt. Similar to how the strength of the defense got shredded, the strength of the offense struggled mightily. The Vols ran for 83 yards and averaged less than 4 yards a carry against Mizzou. Now Mizzou is very solid against the run but the run is Tennessee's offensive identity. And in such a big game, being embarrassed in what you pride yourself in is never great. So with a week to turn it around against the number 1 team in the country can they get it turned around?. That's the biggest question. The identity of this team has been to run the ball with their three backs and be fresh all game. Now it’s all relative, but the weakness of this Georgia defense is against the run because they are great against the pass. Top 10 against passing plays and right around the 60s against rushing plays. So there is a path for this offense to have some success against Georgia. The big thing here for me though is can Joe Milton be efficient. If he can complete some passes to keep this defense somewhat honest then they should be able to have some success. Georgia has struggled with the big play throughout the year so if Joe Milton can hit one or two of those bombs it can really make this game interesting.

Handicap/Betting Outlook

To me although, it's a different time of the season, this game is very reminiscent of the Auburn Georgia game earlier in the year. Auburn coming off a less than impressive effort on the road vs a SEC opponent and hosting Georgia the week after at home in a raucous environment.There should be no doubt of motivation here and Tennessee can get this crowd into it early it will at least challenge Carson Beck in this offense. And this Tennessee team has a similar identity to Auburn. Solid defense that likes to run the ball. Main difference is the running ability of the QBs for Auburn which did help but I think the three running backs of Tennessee pose another threat with them always being fresh and the ability to break the big run. I also think this is a solid buy low sell high spot. Georgia has started to pick it up in the past couple weeks. The one thing to note though is that all these games have been at home or a neutral site. Playing at Sanford Stadium with your own fans is nowhere near what Neyland should be like around 330 on saturday. With all that, I am going with the Vols +10.5 here. It’s hard to go against this wagon of a Georgia offense especially now with Bowers back and how bad the Vols looked. But this Vols team should come out with their hair on fire and if they get a couple defensive stops early, they get some confidence and the crowd gets crazier and we have a ballgame. It does scare me a little that with the pace that they play with that if they don’t get it going early and Georgia scores early that this could get out of hand and limit the ability of this crowd to affect the game. And throw in there is a revenge aspect with this Georgia team ruining the Vols' perfect season last year and now you can ruin their perfect season. It's the cherry on top. But you have to take bets that make you uncomfortable or else you won’t make any money gambling.

As for the side I would lean under. The Tennessee crowd should be rocking which I think fires the defense up to get some stops early. Tennessee struggles to score touchdowns which is never good so if they have some success running the ball it may result in some “longer” drives that only result in field goals. The longer that Tennessee is within striking distance the crazier this crowd will get. Like I said above though, if Georgia comes out like world beaters, gets some stops and scores early and often then this crowd goes away and this game may soar over. Big thing is for Tennessee to get a good start early.

Bet: Tennessee +10.5 -110 Win 1u (FanDuel)

Should get this beautiful checkerboard tomorrow. Inject it into my veins

#21 Kansas State vs #25 Kansas (Kansas State -7, O/U 55.5 7PM FS1)

This game didn’t exactly mean much probably 10 years ago when Kansas was the laughing stock of the Big 12 but with the recent surge of Lance Leipold and this Kansas program this rivalry now has a little more juice. Kansas comes off a tough loss vs Texas Tech where they had the ability to win it late but the spot wasn’t great after beating Oklahoma and then Iowa State on the road. Big thing to note was QB Jason Bean was injured in the third with an apparent head injury and their 3rd string had to step in and didn’t exactly have the most success.

After K State made that miraculous comeback and fell short to Texas on the last play they got it back into gear and absolutely thumped Baylor. 59 to 25 and they absolutely blitzed Baylor in the first half by scoring 35. Always a sign of a well coached team when you have your rival on deck and you don’t let a heartbreaking loss hold you down.

When Kansas State has the ball

This Kansas State team sneakily has a top 25 offense in the country and have been on a tear since a weird loss in Ok State. Last 5 games total are 38, 41, 41, 30 & 59. Just absolute clinics. Will Howard has been very good but it’s the running attack as a whole that grades out so well. It also helps when you probably have one of the top offensive lineman in the country in Cooper Beebee. Watch out for the big fella; he will probably be called at some point on day 1. The offensive is methodical and doesn’t rely on the big play. Which is not good news for this Kansas defense. This Kansas defense has definitely had their moments where they have struggled but they grade out well vs the explosive play. Unfortunately K State doesn’t need that and it may be a long day for this Kansas defense. They can stop the big play against the pass and that’s just about it. Terrible against the run, standard downs and awful at allowing opponents to score touchdowns when they get in their half of the field. There definitely should be some motivation with this being a rivalry game but i don’t know how much it helps to get over the hump.

When Kansas has the ball

Biggest question going into the game is the QB position. Already backup QB Jason Bean was knocked out of the game with an apparent head injury and their third stringer stepped in. Really unfortunate that we haven’t been able to see Jalon Daniels but it appears he has something really wrong with his back but he will return next year which is great news for college football. Jason bean took a “bunch of snaps” on wednesday according to Lance Leipold so we will go with the assumption that he is healthy and ready to go. The one thing that jumps off the page looking at the numbers is the difference in explosiveness. This Kansas offense is great at generating the chunk meanwhile Kansas State struggles mightily covering the big play. Specifically in standard downs and running plays where Kansas excels. The one thing though that does scare me for this Kansas offense is that this Kansas State defense matches up very well against the run. Basically a wash in the key important rush metrics with stuff rate and line yards and they grade out well in the run game. So this game will come down to the arm of Jason Bean. he has been impressive this year and I think the motion and how well this offense schemed up definitely helps. So If you believe in Bean and this offense then they should have some success. Kansas State has dominated this rivalry but they have been a significantly better team for quite some while. If Kansas can hit on the big plays and Bean can be efficient they can make this a game.

Handicap/Betting Outlook

Admittedly Kansas State has been the big brother of Kansas in football for quite some time. They have covered the last 4 and not been close and whatever potion Bill Snyder had to thump Kansas was passed down to Chris Kleiman. So I would lean towards Kansas State just based on the fact that some teams have each other’s numbers. Now this is a rivalry game and this Kansas team is on the uptick. You would love to see Jalon Daniels but I understand preserving him for next year and his pro potential. I still do have faith in QB Jason Bean. The line is sitting at 9.5 so I lean towards Kansas State with that but if it hits 10 I think there is some backdoor potential for Kansas and this explosive offense that won't go down easily.

When I saw the matchup my initial inkling was to bet the over. Kansas State should be able to impose their will with the run and Kansas should be able to hit the big play against this K State defense. However after seeing 91% of the bets and the line really isn’t moving to me it means there is something more to this line. To me and I kind of mentioned it above it appears that Kansas State should dominate in the trenches when they are on offense and be able to match if not be better in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball as well. So with the potential of just running the ball and limiting the opportunities of Kansas I can understand why this line may go down and there is a professional backing. But the one thing I do trust is this K State offense to get theirs. On top of their past 5 performances going above 38 less one game in the last 4 they haven't scored less than 35. So give the K State team total over and we can just focus on this bruising offense showing up and giving Kansas the business.

Bet: Kansas State TT O 34.5 -102 Win 1u (FanDuel)

They named a stadium after this man go get a victory for the gipper

#5 Washington vs #11 Oregon State (Washington -1, O/U 64 730PM ABC)

This Oregon State team has sneakily gone under the radar. They lost to a Wazzu team early in the season that clearly caught lightning in a bottle and then lost to a very good Arizona team on the road. Other than that they have handled business and their number 11 ranking is warranted.

Washington had a potential letting down spot with Utah coming to Seattle but they handled business. The score is misleading since they had a pick 6 that was lost because of an absolute bonehead play a la desean jackson in Dallas and they got a field goal blocked in the forth. So while they won by 7 they realistically should have won by 17. But this game is probably their final test before the PAC 12 championship realistically. Corvallis, Oregon is a weird place to play so if they dont bring their “A” game they can definitely be got here.

When Washington has the ball

While I believe that LSU has surpassed this Washington offense as the best in the country because of their balance, yes LSU’s offense is better than Oregon, they are still a tremendous offense. Penix and crew have been phenomenal here and I expect that they should have some success against this Oregon State D. Coming into the year the weakness of this team was the corners and that hasn’t changed all that much. While the numbers are decent they haven’t played a passing offense anywhere near the capability of Washington. Looking at the schedule the closest thing is Wazzu early in the season. And they allowed them to get 38. That’s the biggest question for me here. While the numbers look solid on paper, what competent passing attacks have they played? And you look at the schedule nobody. I do think this homefield is a big advantage but this Washington team should be able to move the ball. I guess this will be the test to see if these numbers are for real or not. The one thing that Oregon State has the potential to match up well is in the red zone. Washington’s numbers are going to be great but in closer games they have struggled here. Now with RB Dillon Johnson emerging maybe that changes this offense since Oregon State is not all that stout guarding the run. Washington will be able to move the ball here but the difference in the game is potentially the ability of this Oregon State defense to limit touchdowns and force field goals.

When Oregon State has the ball

This is a dream matchup for Oregon State. Oregon State loves to run the ball with their two great backs and Washington has still not figured out stuffing the run. They should be able to stay ahead of the chains here and allow for DJ U to be very successful in the passing game even with the potential limited throws that he may have to make. Washington does limit the big play so I don't know if they will be able to hit those huge play action plays with setting up the run but DJ should definitely be very efficient. This is short and sweet, but with Washington’s defense it’s a simple handicap. If you can run the ball very well you should have some success. Washington hasn’t been able to stop the run all year and I don't know if they will face a better running attack other than Oregon State this year with the run. But this is the identity of this Oregon State team which should be in their favor.

Handicap/Betting Outlook

The sharp play here and it's not even close is to take Oregon State. They match up well here. The offense should be able to run the ball, control the clock and potentially limit the possessions that this Washington team gets. I lean towards the side that Washington is a on a mission and somehow they find a way to get this done so i will stay away but this is a stinky line with Oregon State being favored at home vs the #5 team in the country and Vegas may be laying a trap with the public here.

However I lean towards the over here. Now it is a little scary relying on a ground based unit that will probably want to ball control and limit the possessions of this great Washington offense on their home turf. And it definitely can happen. I'm not going to sell that short. Oregon State gets some momentum here, gets a couple stops in the red zone with Washington and they can slowly start bleeding the clock and this is a recipe for an under. And that is the sharp play is under and I get it. I just lean towards the fact that this Oregon State pass defense is still weak and can be exploited and Dillon Johnson should be able to help in the red zone and I don't think the Oregon State offense gets matched with much resistance. I think both teams get in the 30s here so I'll take the over and root for some points. The path for Oregon State ideally here is to get some stops and run the ball and limit possession which I 100% agree with. I just think Washington scores enough here to keep Oregon State going and make them score and regardless of how run based they are they will still score in bunches.

Washington/Oregon State O 63 -112 Win 1u (DraftKings)

Side note: Utah and Arizona is on PAC 12 network. Would have written that up but nobody is going to be able to watch that game on that basura network.

Best of the Rest

Army +3.5 -115 Win 1u (Coastal Carolina vs Army, 12PM CBS SportsNetwork)

This game means nothing for Coastal Carolina with them having the potential to win the Sun Belt next week and Army still has a chance to sneak into the bowl game. Nothing worse than traveling up to west point when the game doesn’t mean much and you can’t guard the run. Grayson McCall is out for the year so this is not a full Coastal team. Coastal Carolina plays JMU next win and a win guarantees them a spot in the Sun Belt championship. I’ll ride with the troops here getting some points. Wouldn’t be surprised if they lose outright.

ASU +24 -110 WIn 1u (PointsBet) (#6 Oregon vs ASU, 4PM Fox)

Think this number is a little inflated for this spot with Arizona State. Don’t care who is playing QB for Arizona State here. Two things for me here. Oregon has Oregon State on deck for the potential to go to the PAC 12 Championship and guess who used to be Bo Nix’s coordinator, the current head coach of ASU Kenny Dillingham. Bo Nix has been tremendous this year but he has his moments where he hasn’t been superman. With this being a potentially sleepy spot for Oregon coming down to Tempe and Kenny Dillingham knowing some of the tricks of the trade I’ll take the 24. There is a little bias here, I don’t think Bo Nix deserves to be the Heisman favorite, it should be Jayden Daniels and I think this is a good spot for him to potentially slip up here. Oregon could win by 100 here i'll be honest, ASU is good against the pass but not so great against the run. It could be Oregon just running the ball here and killing the clock and which makes covering this 24 harder.

Auburn -25 -110 Win 1u (New Mexico State vs Auburn, 4PM SEC Network)

Big news here is that QB Diego Pavia for NMSU may not be available here and there is really no reason for him to play with the potential of this team to win a Conference USA championship. Should be a get right spot for Auburn before they play Alabama. They did it against ArKANSAS last week and I expect them to keep it rolling here. Hugh Freeze loves to pump these inferior teams and think this should be another one of those ass kickings.

Georgia State/LSU O 73 -110 Win 1u (Georgia State vs LSU, 8PM ESPN2)

Don’t think, just throw. LSU is 10 and 0 to the over and I ain't going to stop. Georgia State won't be able to stop this LSU offense, the only thing that stopped them is Alabama injuring Jayden Daniels. And this LSU defense still is putrid. I don’t know if LSU necessarily cares about this game which worries me a little but if Georgia State gets to 28/31 here then this should get over. If LSU is focused here they should get 50+. Lot riding on if LSU cares or not but I’ll just keep riding the over train. I also think Brian Kelly is aware of Jayden Daniels potential for the Heisman so he may keep in the 1s to pad the stats.

When it’s a rat it’s a rat…

2-0 Last Week & 4-2 since I started posting these. Purdue and San Jose State absolutely Fresno State.

Miami +1 -115 Win 1u (#11 Louisville vs Miami, 12PM ABC)

#11 Louisville is a pick'em at 6-4 Miami after that tough loss for Miami against Florida State. Hmmm seems a little too easy. This Louisville team is a tad bit inflated with how easy their schedule is. Miami has played a way tougher schedule and this may be their chance to ruin this Louisville team’s chance to get to the ACC. Line just screams Miami here so I'll side with the books.

Wisconsin -6 -108 Win 1u (Nebraska vs Wisconsin, 730PM NBC)

Wisconsin has been flailing after losing Tanner Mordercai for the season. Yet somehow they are almost a touchdown favorite against a 5-5 Nebraska team that has been feisty down the stretch. This is a little stinky here. I think Nebraska ends up being one of those public dogs of the week. This Nebraska offense is still putrid and I think Wisconsin should have some success on the ground here. Should be a low scoring game which scares me here laying the 6 but sometimes you gotta take these ugly numbers.

Lets cover some bar tabs today!

-Nick Leone