Dick’s Picks: Week 11 Betting Primer
Photo from CFB on FOX
Hello Friends,
Another great day of college football is ahead of us today. Get it started with Michigan without coach Harbaugh in the diddle palace, followed by two great SEC and Pac 12 games. Lot on the line here for a bunch of teams and the season is slowly but surely nearing end. But HERE WE GO!
Bet Record for Big Games (33-27-2 +4.74u, O/Us 15-7-1 +6.76u, Spreads 11-12-1 -2.26u, TTs 7-8 -1.71u, ML 2-0 +2.03u)
Last Week (1-7 -6.85u, O/Us 0-1 -1.05u, Spreads 0-4 -4.45u, TTs 1-2 -1.35u) (WOOOOF)
“Fox Big Noon” Game
#3 Michigan vs #11 Penn State (Michigan -5, O/U 45 12PM FOX)
You look at the stats. Michigan is the most dominant team in the country. Numbers are off the charts but it comes back to who have they played. You could argue the best team they have played at this point is UNLV or Rutgers.
But they have been dominant.
This will be their first true test and we will get to see how good they are. Nobody has really come close to them at this point. The closest game by point margin while Harbaugh has been coaching has been 24 against Rutgers. Now, Rutgers did give Ohio State a run for their money in the first half but it’s still Rutgers.
They are a 1 point dog this week to Iowa with an O/U of 29.
Penn State comes off their ass whooping against Maryland. I don’t know if James Franklin has the magic potion to smash Maryland but they just beat the breaks off them every time they play. Penn State was similar to this Michigan team going into Ohio State. Not really challenged and nobody knew what to expect. The defense held their own but the offense was dreadful. 1 for 16 on third down and I don't know if that was worse or their overall performance. The offense showed some promise last week but again when they step up in class how do they perform.
When Michigan has the ball
Talked about it above but this Michigan team hasn’t really been challenged.
Their numbers are going to be great but the one thing that may be alarming going down the stretch is the lack of explosiveness in this offense. Now this could be one of those things where they haven’t had to open up the playbook because of who they played but the fact that they aren’t explosive in the run game to me is a little concerning with the potential of RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.
They are dominating the line of scrimmage but struggling to break those big decisive runs.
Last year when Michigan played State Penn in the Big House they absolutely bludgeoned them with the run with 418 on the ground. I was at this game and that number may not do justice to what they did to this State Penn defense. There are really no words to describe how dominant the performance was.
Now do I expect that to happen? No, this State Penn defense has been elite this year. They kept them in the game as long as they could with Ohio State and the difference in that game was Marvin Harrison Jr.
The question here is without a crazy weapon and the potential stalemate in the running game will JJ McCarthy be able to put this team on his back. The numbers this year say and he has been great. 18 TDs and 3 INTs with a 76% completion percentage. Tremendously efficient and impressive. I just always have the thought in the back of mind about how he played in big games last year. Although they won against Ohio State, he was 12 of 24 for 263 Yards and 3 TD, and those three touchdowns were blown coverages and those accounted for 189 yards. You take him the rest of the game he's 9 for 21 with 74 yards. Not all that great. And then you take him in the TCU game. He’s the difference as to why they lost. 2 pick sixes and you lose by a touchdown. And it's not like the TCU defense was game wreckers.
Now, it's a new year and another year of maturity so you expect him to improve. But going into Happy Valley (this game should be a night which is a damn shame it isn’t) against this great defense is no short task. So I think the game will come down to JJ and his decision making and being able to convert the big play. Penn State has struggled with the big play in the pass game, so if Michigan can exploit that, and I don’t know if they necessarily have the weapons with how good this secondary is, then they will have success.
Michigan hasn't necessarily had that success in the passing game so it might be a little tough. But that is how you attack this State Penn defense with the pressure they bring.
When Penn State has the ball
This Penn State offense has been dreadful.
0 explosiveness and you expect that the rest of the offensive numbers will dwindle as the year goes. Even against Maryland last week they started with great field position because of the defense and punched it on short fields. Very limited explosiveness and were super efficient.
But again, when you play against these elite defenses without an explosive play here or there it is so hard to repeatedly have 10+ play drives with continued success.
That scares me here.
You would like in the two games after the Ohio State loss that the numbers would improve.
They had 406 on 75 plays against Maryland and then 342 Yards on 74 plays.
Hovering around 5 YPP isn’t great.
So it doesn’t give me much confidence that they are going to magically turn it around when Michigan comes to town. The numbers are inflated but if you are holding teams under 6 points per game clearly you are really good. And I don't know if State Penn has the goods to challenge them.
The one flaw so far of this Michigan defense is the explosive play. But, as said above, State Penn is bottom 5 in the country in creating explosive play. So I really think this is an uphill climb here. I think if State Penn is going to have some success here it's because their defense is able to put them in a good position. The crowd should be unreal so maybe they feed off of but unless they hit on some trick plays or Drew Allar magically starts making some big time throws to put this defense on their toes or else it may be a potential Ohio State game 2.0.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
When this line was released a couple weeks ago it was Michigan -2.5 before State Penn played Maryland. Now it is hovering around 4.5. And I think Vegas learned a lot about the State Penn team. I think it cemented the defense but the underlying metrics of how lackluster this offense was really put on display. And I think the two point change is warranted. So the first inclination here is to take Michigan laying less than a touchdown but I think the line is fair. Early pro money is on Penn State and it makes sense.
Michigan hasn’t played anywhere near the talent on defense that Penn state has and Happy Valley should be out of control. I don't know if this is all that crazy to say but if this is a night game, it's a mortgage bet on State Penn anything over a field goal. I don’t know if Michigan would be able to hear their own thoughts coherently.
I rag on State Penn but those big time night crowds are some of the best, if not the best in the country. But I think it's a little bit of being contrarian to be contrarian. Allar still hasn’t impressed me and I think Michigan is going to make him beat them. Especially if Michigan shuts down the run this will be on Drew Allar’s shoulders.
I brought up JJ McCarthy not being all that great in big games, but I think he will outperform Drew Allar in this game. So for me I'm dying to get a way to back this State Penn team but in order for this to happen you almost have to rely on turnovers with how inept this offense is. So I will stay away from the side.
Now the bet I do want to get on is the under here. I think both of these defenses are elite and will be able to match what each offense can do. In all honesty if there are a limited number of turnovers leading to short fields I could see this game being a 21 to 17 or even a 17 to 14 game.
Last time Michigan came into Happy Valley they were 2.5 point favorites and won 21 to 17. I think the only way this game gets out of hand is some weird blown coverages and some turnovers that give offenses a short field. That absolutely hosed me last week with the under in K State and Texas. I think the play calling of Penn State will be relatively conservative with their faith in their defense and I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan tries to establish the run and play bully ball like they did last year in the big house.
Note: This was written before the Harbaugh news. If you like Penn State I would lean a little that way and think the under benefits with the potential of Harbaugh not being there to make key decisions in big moments.
Bet: Michigan/Penn State U 45.5 -115 Win 1u (FanDuel)
Hopefully this clown gets it together and beats Michigan without Harbaugh or else I don’t know what more can be done in Happy Valley with him at the helm
#17 Tennessee vs #12 Mizzou (Tennessee -1, O/U 58 3:30PM CBS)
Mizzou put up a good fight against the Dawgs last week but there may be something looming large with the potential of Luther Burden not playing this week. Eli Drinkwitz is concerned with the status of his star. He had that 50+ yard touchdown in the first half and is one of the top 5 receivers in the country. He is a weapon that they can ill afford to lose. This Mizzou team has been a surprise to some this year and this game could be big for the placement in a bowl game down the stretch.
Since we last saw Tennessee collapse against Bama after having a lead at half they had a nice win against Kentucky on the road and handled business against a horrid UConn team. This defense has surprisingly been very solid and it has changed from the throw it around offense with Hendon Hooker and those great wide receivers to a ground attack with their stable of running backs. However, if this team wants to take the next step it's on the shoulders of Joe Milton and him consistently making throws to put them into the top of the SEC conversation. It was apparent in the first half with him making some deep throws but that changed in the second half and is in part why they ended losing and not covering vs Bama.
When Tennessee has the ball
As touched on above, Tennessee has turned into this ground based spread attack this year. They have 3 running backs that are all very capable in Dylan Sampson, Jabari Small & Jaylen Wright. And the underlying metrics grade out very well for this rushing attack. 15th in stuff rate, 25th in line yards and then they excel well in the open field as well.
So the biggest thing is when you play this Tennessee offense can you stop the run. And Mizzou matches up well.
Wrote about this last week, but they are 16th in stuff rate and 22nd in line yards which means this will be a strength on strength matchup. So if Tennessee can establish the run on early downs they have a chance here. If not, I think they will struggle.
Tennessee is not great when they are behind the chains. Part of that is because of the inconsistency with accuracy and Mizzou excels in those situations as well. I lean towards the fact that Mizzou is aware of Milton’s struggles and their success on the ground and they load the box, and trust their corners against Milton. So this game will be on Milton’s shoulders.
I’m not a believer in Milton so I think this will be difficult for the Vols. I do think we will get some big runs out of these running backs just because of the volume that they run at but I think it will be a struggle in Columbia, Missouri.
When Mizzou has the ball
This Mizzou offense has been great the whole year. They at times have struggled with the run and it has been QB Brady Cook and his weapons taking them to the promise land. Luther Burden is tremendous but him not being 100% is potentially a huge deal for this offense.
The one way that it seems to get this Tennessee defense is with the big play.
Mizzou is good, not great with the explosive play and not having Burden dials that back even more. Tennessee is very good at defending the run which is not exactly where Mizzou excels ranking sub 95th in stuff rate and line yards.
It’s not that Mizzou necessarily wants to run the ball but if they do they may struggle.
The one thing though that does scare me for the Mizzou team is the pass rush of this Tennessee defense.
They rank 13th in the country in the havoc created in the front 7. They have been great this year and it might be an area that they can potentially exploit with Mizzou being 64th in havoc allowed in the front seven. So the big question here is potentially without Burden can Mizzou generate the big plays and keep Brady Cook upright.
The one good thing is that Brady Cook is mobile and has shown his ability to break the pocket and make some plays with his legs because I do think he will be under pressure in this game.
In the end with the potential with Luther Burden being out it scares me what this Mizzou offense is without him.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
The biggest thing that looms large for the total and side is Luther Burden’s injury status. He means so much to this team. (Update: He is set to play but I will operate under the assumption he will not be 100%).
With that and what the numbers say, I am going with the under. I think this Mizzou defense matches up well with this Tennessee ground attack and without a 100% Burden I think the explosive play potential of this Mizzou goes down which is where they could generate some chunk plays to put themselves in scoring position.
The one thing that does scare me is the big play potential of these offenses. Brady Cook can still sling the rock very well and maybe one of their other receivers steps up as a big play threat as well as Joe Milton making some plays. That was the difference in the game in the Bama game. He was great in the first half and then was an absolute bum in the second half.
Always the potential but I lean towards those events not happening enough to get this over.
As for the side, when I first saw this number I thought I would lean towards Mizzou. Defense matches up well with Tennessee offense and they have the potential to convert the big plays in the passing game.
But with Luther Burden not being 100%, I lean towards Tennessee. I hate Joe Milton but if he can convert a couple plays, the rushing game has some success and the pass rush can get to Brady Cook. It checks out well. Especially on the road. Being able to run the ball, stop the run and rush the passer is always a success to win games on the road.
Bet: Tennessee/Mizzou U 58.5 -110 Win 1u (DraftKings)
#18 Utah vs #5 Washington (Washington -9, O/U 54.5 3:30PM FOX)
Washington comes off a HUGE win vs USC which basically seals their spot in the PAC 12 Championship.
If you told fans that Washington would score 52 and that they would have ran for more than they threw for, I think people would have laughed at you but Washington manned up and went right at the weakness of that USC defense. So bad that they fired the DC in the following days after that performance.
Utah rebounded nicely after getting throttled by Oregon in Rice-Eccles. They absolutely laid down the hammer against ASU 55 to 3 in a very impressive performance. It was a perfect spot for Utah after losing to Oregon and Arizona State coming off an upset vs Wazzu but to do it in the fashion they did was very impressive. This team is a little different away from Rice Eccles so it will be interesting to see how they perform in a Windy Seattle with so much still on the line for Washington.
When Utah has the ball
Because of the QB carousel this Utah team has relied on the run. And when the running game gets going it can get going. That's the reason why they beat USC and why they thumped Arizona State. So the big thing here is can you stop the run and force Bryson Barnes, the Lowes worker, to beat them.
Fortunately, this matches up well for this Utah unit against Washington.
Washington is just abysmal at guarding the run and that was showcased again last week against USC.
203 yards but with 7.53 yards per carry, #notgreat.
So I do think that this bruising Utah team will have some success running the football but the projected winds make this interesting. I think more so for Washington but still something here for Utah.
Generally speaking, if your QB does not have strong arm crosswinds are usually not great. And Bryson Barnes doesn't exactly have a hand cannon. So with that in mind does Washington load the box and force Utah to throw? I think that is crucial here.
Obviously this is a projection, but with the winds being a factor and Utah struggling to throw the ball does Washington dare them to throw the ball and potentially have success stopping the run with a loaded box.
Again, all potential.
When Washington has the ball
Washington shocked me last week with how successful they ran the ball.
They struggled all year but then again it was against this horrid USC rush defense. Pretty much anybody that has had a pulse has been able to run against them.
This Utah defense has been very solid all year long. Solid against the run, but they grade out better against the pass. So that does work well here. The issue is that against these elite passing offenses they haven’t fared all that well. 32 against USC & 35 against Oregon. So it does scare me the numbers may be a little inflated compared to facing an elite team like Washington with the weapons they have.
They also have struggled on standard downs which is where Washington lives. With how good the passing attack is, they are very efficient at keeping themselves against the chains and might be the one spot where Utah isn’t as great. And most notably in standard downs explosiveness where they rank 112th in the county and Washington respectively 28th.
So if Washington can stay ahead of the chains, they should have some success here. But again the wind comes into play here. It is projected to be 15 mph cross winds which is no joke so will Penix be able to zing passes through the wind is the question here.
I would lean yes.
However, if they can’t, I don’t think they will get the same performance on the ground as they did vs USC. This Utah defense should be very solid against this below average running attack.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
Admittedly with the wind being such a huge factor here it is very hard to make a play. This over has already come crashing down from 55 and it's now working towards 49. I will probably wait till Saturday morning to check out the weather to confirm the winds or not.
If the winds are that bad this number will continue to go down which sucks so if you believe in it the under now would be the time to get it but I lean that way. With Utah not being able to throw the ball and Washington not being able to lean on their strength, it should be a ton of runs which burns clock and may result in more punts than would be expected in this game.
As for the side I would lean Utah, which does scare me with their performance against Oregon a couple weeks ago but this Washington team isn’t as balanced as that Oregon team is and doesn’t have as good of a defense.
With the wind coming into play and potentially limiting this offense to running the ball it may not be as easy for Washington to score. There also is a little hangover factor here potentially for Washington as well here. Utah is definitely a big game but with how much up and down there was in that USC game it can definitely take a toll on this team.
Bet: Utah +8 -110 Win .5u
#10 Ole Miss vs #2 Georgia (Georgia -11, O/U 59 7PM ESPN)
Quite possibly the best game of the day with an under the radar Ole Miss team.
After Losing to Bama and then beating LSU, it might be the least talked about 1 loss team in the country. Probably have the best player in the country that nobody knows about in Jaxson Dart and they still have when he’s healthy and in rhythm the best running back in the country in Quinshon Judkins. He showed it last week with his game against a very good Texas A&M rush defense last week.
And on the other hand, this will be Georgia’s toughest test this year. The best offense that they will face and a feisty defense that tries to force turnovers when they can. I’ve been preaching about how good QB Carson Beck is and he is finally getting the national recognition that he deserves, sneaking into the heisman odds at 12 to 1. He’s definitely on the outside looking in, but crazier things have happened.
Fortunately for Georgia, they do get this game at home which will mark their second game in a row at home against a top 15 team from the SEC. This will be their 3rd big game in a row and they have to go Rocky Top next week. So if this team continues to excel I don't know if we can really challenge their schedule with how well some of these teams have ended up playing this year.
When Ole Miss has the ball
If you haven’t seen Jaxson Dart play outside of the Bama game you are missing out.
He's a true dual threat QB who loves to deliver the blow and at times is an absolute lunatic. If you haven’t watched him play this year he’s a treat, and so is his RB Quinshon Judkins. Just a true sophomore so he has another year before he is draft eligible and you hope that he starts to pick it up after a nice game last week.
But the big thing here is stepping up in class while going on the road.
How does this offense match up vs Georgia? I think the one thing that Mizzou showed last week is that getting Georgia with the explosive play may be the way to go. The bomb to Luther burden, Brady Cook’s ability to scramble when the play broke down as well as the various chunks throws and runs that they got. And that comes through in the stats with Georgia being 79th in the country in explosiveness and Ole Miss Ranks 29th respectively. So there is that ability and more specifically where Georgia struggles more than in the rush game, and that’s big with Jaxon Dart being able to break contain with his ability to run and Quinshon Judkins ability to break tackles.
The one thing that scares me though is that this Ole Miss team doesn’t match up all that well in the run game compared to this Georgia front. 97th in stuff rate & 79th in line yards meaning their initial push is not great and Georgia ranks 9th and 26th respectively. So it appears that initial push might be a struggle but where they do match up well is that second level and it makes sense with the struggle with explosive runs, whether it be QB scrambles or RBs being able to break the run occasionally.
So I do think there will be some success for this Ole Miss team and I think a lot of it will come behind Jaxson Dart and his ability to throw as well as extend the play with his legs, as well as running the read option with Quinshon Judkins.
When Georgia has the ball
Carson Beck has continued to develop through the year.
I’ve been on the train for a little while now and really like what I see out of him. Super poised in the pocket and for the most part usually makes the right decisions. Tough to follow up Stetson Bennett and his career at Georgia but Carson Beck is doing about as good as you can do.
The biggest thing with this Ole Miss defense is can you contain or limit those “havoc” plays. They rank top 10 in the country in defensive havoc created. It's a very boom or bust defense. Nothing really sticks out with this defense. Every other ranking is somewhere in the 60s to 90s so nothing all that special. So, the question for this Georgia offense is can they limit this big play by this defense?
And they do grade out well.
This offensive line protects well and Carson Beck has gotten better with his decision making down the stretch. Georgia has struggled running the ball but the rushing metrics for this Ole Miss front are not great. 111th in stuff rate and 82nd in line yards. So they are developing those havoc plays from passing plays with their pass rush. So I side with the fact that this line holds up for Carson Beck. Now Pete Golding will get creative here and try to challenge Carson Beck but I don’t know if it's enough. If Georgia is able to get the running game going and then allow Carson Beck with a clean pocket this may be a long day for this Ole Miss defense.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
There is one thing that is looming in the back of my brain when I make this bet and it is how Lane’s teams play in big games when they have to travel. Bama this year was not great, they played great at home two weeks ago against LSU but last year got smashed at LSU and the year before that it was the same clubbing from Bama. The Grove is a great place to play but with all this talent it should be able to travel. So that does loom in the back of my head which makes me want to stay away from the spread. I would like to think that with this offense making some plays and potentially the defense making a play or two here that they can keep this under two scores. So I do think the line is fair i'm just scared that road Lane Kiffin comes out in this big moment.
Where I lean is the over. I think Georgia should have some success with the Ole Miss defense if they can protect Carson Beck, which I think they can, and there is more than enough talent on this Ole Miss offense to hit some big plays.
And if there is any doubt, Lane is going for it on 4th down. Especially being a road dog in a crazy environment.
That is a lot of variation with how 4th downs go, but if they get a couple it may lead to more scoring opportunities for Ole Miss but if they miss it may lead to great field position for this Georgia offense.
Bet: Ole Miss/Georgia O 58 -110
Going to keep posting ridiculous pictures of this guy until he gets the RESPEK he deserves
#20 USC vs #6 Oregon (Oregon -15, O/U 73 10PM FOX)
I think the elephant in the room is finally gone for USC.
Lincoln Reilly finally got rid of that clown DC Alex Grinch after not being able to stop a nosebleed. There was a blueprint to stop this Washington team that couldn’t rush for anything against anybody, and they just got embarrassed on the ground. They let up more rushing yards than passing yards. And then the cherry on top was how Caleb Williams reacted after the game. Crying in his mom's arms and saying that all he wants to do is cuddle with his dogs and watch TV shows. This team is potentially in a tailspin so it will be really hard to handicap their mindset going into this game and if they really care about the season anymore.
Oregon is on a totally different trajectory. Offense is absolutely humming and now Bo Nix is basically the co-favorite with Michael Penix and he potentially has the better road to winning. I may hedge my Penix ticket. But this offense has looked tremendous. What they did to Utah in Utah is impressive and they followed it up with an absolute thrashing of Cal. You expect some success here again with Oregon against this reeling USC team.
When USC has the ball
It’s pretty hard to not address that USC might not be checked out for this game or Caleb Williams might not care at all. I tend to think there is some middle ground, but I think once this offense steps on the field there should be some motivation to potentially ruin this Oregon’s team's playoff chances. This Oregon defense has been improved from last year but the one thing that they struggle with is the explosive play. Decent with keeping teams from gaining yards but sometimes the big play has hurt them. And what do Caleb Williams and USC love to do? Create the big play.
So from a matchup perspective, this USC offense should have some success. But again from a motivation perspective it's so hard to say definitively that we will get a fully committed USC offense or a lackadaisical offense going through the motions.
When Oregon has the ball
I will still hold onto that LSU is the best offense in the country, but this Oregon may be 1B, if not better.
Bo Nix has been tremendous this year and the price for his Heisman price is warranted. You could argue that if they convert that 4th down in Seattle earlier in the year he is probably the odds on favorite to win the Heisman. And this is a great opportunity for him and this offense to put on a show.
USC can’t guard anything.
The run defense is worse than the pass defense but let’s not sell this run offense short. I touched on it above, but Washington struggled all year to run the ball and then they decided to stick to the run and ran for 311. Good god. They might not rush for that in the rest of the games combined that they play this year.
But this will be how Oregon wants to pick their poison this game. Do they want to do it on the ground with Bucky Irving or let Bo pad his stats through the air with Troy Franklin?
This defense can only go up, and I actually think them firing their defensive coordinator helps them. Potentially a new scheme and maybe just simplifying the game for this defense and just going out and letting them play. There is talent on the field, so maybe that unknown of what USC is going to do on the defensive end actually plays to their advantage.
Handicap/Betting Outlook
Admittedly, the biggest thing here is if USC shows up here. I know there is pro money pushing this Oregon line up but this Oregon defense can be scored on and this USC can only get better since that clown DC Alex Grinch is gone. They can’t get any worse than what happened last week. But they could easily lay an egg here and get absolutely ran out the building and Oregon could win by 100. But I think I am going to be a crazy person to take USC here. Laying a big risk with motivation but there is definitely a backdoor opportunity with 14+ in this game.
Another bet I want to lean towards is with this Oregon team. I think with Bo Nix being in the Heisman push there is no reason that Dan Lanning doesn’t keep him on the field for this team to keep scoring.
Oregon boned me earlier in the year with their TT vs Colorado but I think they keep this going here.
As for the total, this is really how Oregon wants to attack this defense. If they want to run the ball and ball control I think this game goes under but if they want to throw it around the yard this will soar over. It's now soaring to 77 so I don’t know if I necessarily want to take it at 47.5 but it's hard not to with how poor the USC defense has played.
Bet: USC +16 -110 Win 1u
I really hope Caleb Williams is done crying to his mommy and puts his big boys pants and gets us a cover here
Best of the Rest
Kentucky +11.5 -112 Win 1u (BetRivers) (Bama vs Kentucky 12PM ESPN)
Great let down spot here for Alabama after that huge win and now they travel to Lexington to play an 11am local game. I think Alabama could be very sleepy here. Kentucky matches up well on both sides of the ball with this Alabama team. They are good at stopping the run and limiting explosive plays. And on the offensive side they are so reliant on the big play but Bama has shown that they are susceptible to that as well. Think this is a good spot and a decent matchup so let's go with the Cats.
Texas Tech +3.5 -110 Win 1u (Texas Tech vs Kansas 12PM FS1)
One of those lines that you look at is a little funny with how well Kansas has played along with Texas Tech’s record. But Texas Tech has had QB injuries and have finally turned the corner in their past couple games. After the terrible West Virginia loss they have been 4 and 1 with their only loss coming against Kansas State. This Kansas defense is still not great and this is crazy to say but Texas Tech should have some success running the ball and with QB Behren Morton being healthy now to be able to throw the ball. This Texas Tech defense is not all that bad and should at least be able to contain this great Kansas offense. But a big part of the handicap is Kansas State on deck for Kansas. Huge rivalry game and with how Kansas has played you wonder if there may be a slight look ahead to a game that they will definitely be competitive chomping at the bit for. So I’ll take the 3.5 with the red raiders.
Navy +2.5 -110 Win 1u (UAB vs Navy 3:30PM CBS SportsNetwork)
This one is simple. UAB is the worst rush defense in the country and Navy should have a ton of success with the triple option. Navy defense is not all that great at stopping what UAB does well but I think if Navy can limit possessions here and get a stop or two they should have some success here. And anytime that I can fade Trent Dildo, sign me up. Give me the mids.
UCF +2.5/OK State/UCF O 65.5 (3:30PM ESPN)
Terrible spot here for the pokes after that huge win in the last bedlam. Now they have to travel to the Bounce House which is an underrated tough place to play. Have to wonder where the motivation is for this team. This UCF offense should have a ton of success with the explosive play as well as running the ball. The reason I also have the over here is i don’t know how many stops this UCF defense will get. They are just bad all around and struggle with the run where OK State is going to feed Ollie Gordon. In the end I like the spot for UCF. I wish I got the 3 but I think UCF finds a way to win this game in a shootout
Rutgers/Iowa U 28 -110 Win 1u (3:30PM BTN)
Principle bet Alert! When Iowa keeps setting records for how low the total is you keep betting it under. I did it with them and Minnesota and had no problem doing that. Iowa is the worst offense in the country and Rutgers actually has a very solid defense. And on the other side this Rutgers team should have some success running the ball but I think if they even get near the red zone they will struggle to score. This is a true degenerate bet and you just hope that you get zero score updates during the afternoon while being part of history.
Cal -1 -110 Win 1u (Wazzu vs Cal 4PM ESPN2)
Washington State can’t guard the run so this Cal offense should go wild. It's become very apparent how to stop this Wazzu pass attack since they basically refuse to run the ball. Drop everybody into coverage and frustrate this offense. This Wazzu team is reeling and might be done for. Think we get a good effort from Cal after a tough stretch and get the victory here.
Florida/LSU O 67 -110 Win 1u (7:30PM SEC Network)
Back on my BS here. Handicap is simple. If Jayden Daniels plays, and it appears that he will, they are going to score points and Graham Mertz against crappy defense can perform to his numbers that he has shown. Florida off that embarrassing loss against ArKANSAS in the swamp should be motivated here. Little scared with the letdown spot for LSU here but this offense just strolls out of bed and gets 40 so I think this has all the makings for Florida to potentially come out hot and wake up this sleeping giant LSU offense.
Ohio State -31.5 -110 Win 1u (Michigan State vs Ohio State 7:30PM NBC)
Ohio State for some reason loves to kick the ever living shit out of Michigan State. Michigan State comes off probably their last victory of the year and now they have to travel to the “shoe”. It’s the same song and dance with this Ohio State team every week. They start out slow and then somehow cover games with these miraculous efforts late in games. Feel like Sparty is one of the more public dogs because people don’t think they can cover such a big number. Almost like the sentiment, too many points. I’m probably a sucker here but wouldn’t be shocked if this Michigan State team gets shutout and McCord has a decent day throwing the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka. Ohio State is also wearing some clean all grey unis so I’m all for this thrashing in the new look.
Let’s go back to the fishy stuff…
1-1 Last Week again with Michigan State winning out right almost getting a Boise cover.
Purdue ML -115 Win 1u (Minnesota vs Purdue 3:30PM NBC)
Again one of those things that jumps off the screen when you see it. A 2-7 team is favored vs a 4-5 team. The numbers don’t speak well for this Purdue offense but they have played a pretty brutal schedule. They match up well on defense with Minnesota since all they can do is run the ball and the only thing they can stop is the run. People also have the recency bias of them getting thumped in the big house, but they did backdoor cover so good for them. But let’s take it, as ugly as it gets.
San Jose State ML -115 Win 1u (Fresno State vs San Jose State 10:30PM CBS Sports Network)
Fishy, fishy, fishy. San Jose State hosting 8 and 1 Fresno while they are 4 and 5 and the number has climbed to them being 2.5 point favorites. Something is up here. I think Vegas thinks that this Fresno team will lose one more game with how they have set these lines in the past two weeks. And I will again be with the books. San Jose State's schedule start was tough but they have picked it up after a rough out of conference start. And you look 8 and 1 Fresno has not really beaten anybody. That Purdue out of conference win looks worse and worse as time goes along here and they haven’t really punished anybody in the mountain west. San Jose State comes off a much needed bye and I think Fresno is ripe for the picking here.
Lets cover some bar tabs today!
-Nick Leone
