Dick’s Picks: Bowl Week #1

Photo from The Los Angeles Times

Gronk is hosting a bowl game! Let’s DO IT!

Hello Friends,

We are in bowl season people. PLEASE look at the opt out and the injury reports. These aren’t going to be your normal rosters for many of these games due to opt-outs and people entering the transfer portal. So be weary.

Sucks with everything going on that we don’t really get these teams at full strength but hopefully with the playoff next year that solves some of it. More Group of 5 teams today and I’ll try to give everybody the opt-outs, injuries and how it affects the games. And MOTIVATION. There are some teams that just care more than others. It’s such a big part of the handicap. Opening day of bowls so definitely games to be had but might not be the best football.

Bet Record for Big Games (46-33-2 +10.5u, O/Us 23-8-1 +13.64u, Spreads 14-15-1 -3.08u, TTs 8-10 -2.59u, ML 2-0 +2.03u, Prop 1-0 +.5u)

Championship Weekend 7-3 +3.41u (Spread 1-2 -1.23u , O/U 4-0 +4u , TT 1-1 +.14u , Prop 1-0 +.5u)

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern vs Ohio (Ga Southern -3, O/U 48.5, 11AM ESPN)

If this game was played in the regular season at full strength this would be a very interesting game. Georgia Southern had a nice year out of the Sun Belt but fell flat towards the end of the year with the potential to win their division of the Sun Belt and Ohio was one win away from playing in the MAC Championship.

When Ohio has the ball

This Ohio team was one of the favorites to win the MAC year and was more than justified. There was some serious talent on the offensive side of the ball. Numbers don’t really tell the story but for a MAC team there was a ton of depth and talent at the skill positions. Unfortunately it looks like a bunch of that skill position talent will not be playing. QB Kurtis Rourke, aka the Maple Missile and younger brother of Nathan Rourke who some may remember for his time at Ohio, RBs Sieh Bangura and O’Shaun Allison, and WRs Miles Cross,Tyler Walton and Armani Rhone have entered the transfer portal. Meaning that Ohio will be down to their 3rd String QB and really only have weapon Sam Wiglusz, former Ohio State recruit, to utilize on offense. So it could be a very vanilla game for these bobcats and not much success for them. On the other side, the Georgia Southern defense. Woof. Nothing grades out well, except their ability to generate havoc plays. Meaning this a boom or bust team. Which is apparent with allowing 30 points per game while having 23 forced fumbles, 29 sacks and 13 picks. All relative but they do grade out a little better against the run but still it's not pretty. Now can this Ohio offense with their third string exploit this Georgia Southern defense? I lean towards no with a third string QB on a MAC team with a limited arsenal. Even against this lackluster defense it may be an uphill battle for depleted Ohio offense.

When Georgia Southern has the Ball

Now the total opposite end of the spectrum of this Ohio team is Georgia Southern with 0 transfer portal news. The only thing is this team comes in losing their last 4. They were 6 and 2 and were in the drivers seat to win the Sun Belt East. However they faltered down the stretch losing 2 as favorites and 2 as underdogs. So from a head space you have to wonder about the motivation/headspace of this team.

This Georgia Southern team is led by their offense. Around a top 50 to 60 offense in the country and they are led by Davis Brin and this passing attack and complimented by a very solid running back in Jalen White who may potentially be out for this game. QB Davis Brin has thrown for 3300 yards + but has struggled with his turnovers. 16 picks on the year but 8 of them have come from 2 games. 5 most notably against Wisconsin this year which was a shit show. This offense grades out as more successful on the ground but as Davis Brin goes is how this offense goes. Offense does struggle with creating explosive play and scoring touchdowns but still a decent offense.

Now luckily for Ohio their defense was very good this year and appears that they should be at full strength. The Ohio defense grades out as a top 10 defense with their struggles really only being with the explosive play. And luckily for them Georgia Southern doesn’t generate the explosive play all that often which lines up well for them. Now this is a MAC defense who played some less fortunate offenses so the numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt but they still should be the strong suit of this team and any chance of Ohio winning this game will be on the back of this defense. Everything that Georgia Southern does well, Ohio from an advanced stats perspective matches up well. So this will be the test to see how “real” these Ohio metrics are.

Betting Outlook/Handicap

Really wish this was a full strength matchup for this game. Think it would have made for a very fun Group of 5 game. But college football has changed and the transfer portal is turning college football on its head and that is what happened to this Ohio team. This offense is a shell of themselves. Now the only thing is that this Georgia Southern defense hasn’t been great all year so there is a potential for this offense to have some success but I think with limited time to prepare with limited weapons it will be an uphill battle. And on the other side this Ohio defense has been great all year. Georgia Southern should have a talent advantage but Davis Brin and his ability to turn over the ball might slow down some of these drives and make this a game. Add in that Georgia Southern has had struggles in the red zone scoring touchdowns. Only 50% which is never great and Ohio does grade out very well at limiting red zone touchdowns as well. This leads me to the under. The one thing that I will be interested to see is the motivation of each team. With Ohio’s whole offense basically not playing and Georgia Southern losing their last 4 there may be a potential for a lackadaisical start. I will say that the MAC generally has the lowest level of talent compared to the rest of the non Power 5 conferences so it will be interesting to see if this defense is just MAC good or if it is Group of 5 good. I think this is has the potential to be an ugly game and with this Ohio team trying to figure out the offense with a new QB and this Ohio defense doing the best it can to make it a game. Admittedly there is the other side of the coin that if neither of these teams care that there may be no defense and this goes over with no issue. Especially if the Ohio defense doesn’t show up. But I’ll take my chances with an early start in Conway, South Carolina.

As for the side. I would lean Georgia Southern. However, their defense is terrible. So if they are up 10 or 14 even with the uncertainty of who is at QB for Ohio they might be able to score. I wish I was on top of the news and was able to get this line change, but 3.5 I will stay away. Probably will have Ga Southern in ML as a leg of a parlay for the day.

Bet: Georgia Southern/Ohio U 49 -110 Win 1u (Caesars) (Play down to 48)

Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl: Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State (App St -6, O/U 44.5, 330PM ABC)

Another one of these MAC teams playing in the opening weekend of the bowl season. This time it's the winner of the MAC in Miami (OH) off their upset of Toledo with their backup QB. On the other side App State comes into this game after losing the Sun Belt Championship to Troy in an absolute thumping of 49 to 23. Two different ways to come into this game but once again injuries and the transfer portal have an impact on this game.

When Miami Ohio has the ball

Miami Ohio was down to their second string QB against Toledo and won in a gutsy effort. They relied on the rushing attack of QB Aveon Smith and RB Rashad Amos who totaled 200 of their total yards on the ground while only going 6/16 with 109 yards through the air. So not the prettiest but it got the job done and that has been the motto of this team without their starting QB Brett Gabbert, who is one of the top QBs in the MAC. In the 5 games that Aveon Smith has been under center they have been very reliant on the run using Aveon Smith’s legs to their advantage. The issue here is that Aveon Smith has entered the transfer portal and third stringer

QB Henry Hesson has been named the starter for this game. He has only attempted 5 collegiate pass attempts which is scary and was a 3 Star Pro-Style passer coming out of High school. For him they do have their top receiver Greg Larvadain who came back in the MAC championship but was not utilized all that much. He did have a monster game this year against UMass with 8 catches for 273 and which will definitely be Hesson’s top target. Now on the other side of the ball this App State defense has been terrible against the run. Might be one of the worst rush defenses in the country. Miami Ohio wishes that Aveon Smith was available because with him and RB Rashad Amos this might be a good matchup for this Miami Ohio offense who wants to muck it up. However with Hesson not necessarily being that mobile it might allow for this App State defense to load the box and force Hesson to beat them with his arm. There is also projected ugly weather in this game meaning it may be even more difficult to throw. This potentially allows for App State to force Miami Ohio to throw the ball in the rain with a sophomore QB with limited experience. Miami Ohio should have some success here on the ground here. I am just a little scared that if the weather is that terrible that it will force them to be one dimensional which allows for App State to just focus on the rush and maybe not allow for Miami Ohio to truly expose this porous rushing defense.

When App State has the ball

This App State offense has been pretty good this year. It’s led by QB Joey Aguilar who has had a breakout year. Not the starter at the beginning of the year but he has really blossomed to become one of the better Sun Belt QBs this year. He ended the year with 33 Tuddies and 9 picks amassing over 3500 passing yards this year. The news here is that their leading rusher, Nate Noel, has entered the transfer portal. 834 yards this year but he had a very successful career for the mountaineers. So the question here is can Miami Ohio slow down Joey Aguilar and co. And similar to the Ohio defense this Miami Ohio defense was very good this year. After the Brett Gabbert injury it was the defense that carried them to the finish line. Just tremendous. Again now similar to the Ohio numbers, not as good as those numbers, but how much is it playing some subpar MAC offenses vs how good they actually are. But the big question here is does this Miami team matchup well vs the pass. App State ranks as a top 20 passing offense while Miami Ohio is 30 in Passing Play PPA & 59th in Success Rate. So there is a slight advantage to App State but weather will probably play a factor. 14 mph winds with rain makes this a potentially ugly game where App State may struggle to throw the ball regardless of how well they have passed the ball this year. The run offense is not as good and Miami matches better up with the run than the pass in this case. Miami does struggle with stuff rate and line yards so if they are able to hold up in the trenches it might be how this game is dictated. It is odd that their trench numbers are not great because their numbers against the rush all rank inside the top 40. But weather will definitely play a factor in how this game is played.

Handicap/Betting Outlook

Alluded to it above but the weather will likely play a big factor here. Projected to be rainy with 14 mph headwinds which will affect how teams decide what to do with their special teams. With that and Miami Ohio being down to their third string QB as well as this defense trying to carry the team I'll be on the under. I wish I got the number earlier but was able to snag a 45 that popped at one of the books. I think this has the potential for an ugly game with this weather and especially with the potential limitations of this Miami Ohio offense. They weren’t exactly lighting the world on fire with Aveon Smith and to now be down to your third string QB is a big deal. Now it could play to the advantage of Miami since there is no tape on the QB but I think the weather limits their game plan and makes this a run dependent game. And I think that is for both sides. If the wind holds up it sounds like there is the potential to affect the passing game which affects the App State passing attack that has been very good all year. I also think that this Miami Ohio team has a slight advantage in motivation after winning the MAC and having the potential to win 12 games while App State comes off a thumping and has to face a MAC team. I think they will still be motivated but maybe not as hyped up as Miami Ohio, especially this defense which knows that they will have to carry the load here potentially. Ultimately I think the first one to 20 here wins. Wish i got it in the 47 range but will settle for 45.

As for the side. I would lean towards App State. Similar to Ohio, having your third string QB from the MAC is not all that great even against a suspect Sun Belt defense. Add on that their offense is very close to full strength against a good MAC defense and they own the slight edge. I think with the weather this could be gross but will probably throw App State in a ML parlay as well. This may become a theme here today.

Bet: Miami Ohio/App State U 45 -110 Win 1u (Caesars) (Note: Number has really driven this down. Wouldn’t play it past 43/44 Range)

Starco Brands LA Bowl Hosted by GRONK: UCLA vs Boise State (UCLA -3.5, O/U 49.5, 730PM ABC)

A matchup of the winner of the Mountain West Championship game vs a member of the PAC 12. Unfortunately here we will not get a full Boise State team. Boise made a great run down the stretch to get themselves into the Mountain West final to then win it vs UNLV in a very impressive showing. The only thing here is that their starting QB, Taylin Green, has gone to greener pastures in Fayetteville, Arkansas, but the good news is quite possibly the best RB in the country that nobody knows about will be back for another year in Ashton Jeanty. UCLA comes into this game splitting their final two games among the California PAC 12 teams with an odd situation with Chip Kelly, speculation he was going to get fired but he is still at UCLA.

When Boise State has the ball

Boise State had an interesting season especially with them firing their coach so late in the season yet were able to keep it together and win a mountain west title. This team is led by their offense. It was a three headed monster in the backfield with QB Taylin Green, RB Ashton Jeanty and RB George Hollani. Unfortunately for this Boise team Taylin Green transferred out and their backup QB Maddux Madsen is out for the season with an injury. Leaving this team with freshman QB CJ Tiller and a lot of uncertainties for this offense. The one thing that will be certain and it was declared recently is Ashton Jeanty will be returning to Boise and playing in this game. A well rounded back that finished top 10 in the country in rushing despite missing a game and will probably be the Mountain West Preseason offensive player of the year next season. The offense was very good all year but without having Taylin Green or backup Maddux I don’t know if we necessarily get that balance here which could be troubling vs this UCLA defense.

Admittedly I grew to love this UCLA team yet they didn’t provide the results that they should have throughout the season. This defense took a huge step forward with Coordinator D’Anton Lynn, unfortunately he was poached by USC and Lincoln Riley hoping to improve that dumpster fire of a defense for next year. They also have their best player in Edge Laiatu Latu who will definitely be a first round pick and potentially a top 15 pick pending who is in need of an edge rusher, sitting out the game. But it doesn’t scare me that much with this defense. They have great depth on the defensive line with the Murphy twins who are very good and everything else in this defense is still intact. A top 15 defense in many metrics, they create havoc plays at all levels, are great stopping the run and great in standard downs. Probably one of the more underrated defenses in the country in a loaded PAC 12. With the uncertainty of the QB here and how good this UCLA defense is, I think it's some uphill sledding for these Boise State running backs.

When UCLA has the ball

Unlike the great UCLA defense this offense had some struggles. There was some QB limbo and it wasn’t your typical Chip Kelly offense. Big news here is that 5 Star freshman QB Dante Moore, who was very highly regarded, is transferring out of UCLA after one season. His on the field performance wasn’t all that great but you could see the potential in some of the throws he was able to make. But just like any freshman he made mistakes and those mistakes sometimes led to losses that could have been potentially been avoided. So it will be Ethan Garbers or Collin Schlee who were both okay this year. Nothing really more to talk about this offense. They hover around the 80s in total offense and don’t necessarily have somewhere they succeed. They do have a great stable of running backs which surprises me that their running numbers aren’t better. But I think that instability and lack of consistent QB play may have contributed to that.

Now this Boise defense is nowhere near the ability of the offense but had some better performances towards the end of the year. Allowing less than 20 in their last 4. Ironic that they fired a defensive minded coach in Andy Avalos and got better on the defensive side. The defense doesn't do much well, they struggle with explosive plays and in passing down situations. Good for them because UCLA doesn’t really do well in those categories either and probably won't be able to exploit them. The rest of their metrics rank pretty middle of the pack and don’t lean one way or the other. Down the stretch though they were able to be better against the run especially against a solid UNLV offense. Which should be good news for this UCLA offense that does like to run the ball with their stable of running backs and athletic QBs. I do think that the improved play of Boise State should fare well here with a very hit or miss UCLA offense.

Handicap/Betting Outlook

Another one of the matchups that you wish you would have both teams at full strength. The Dante Moore news for UCLA is bigger for the future of UCLA and not this game but the big news here is no Taylin Green and the ramifications of what it means for this Boise offense. With the backup being injured they are down to their freshman third stringer who hasn’t thrown a pass this year. Now they do have two great running backs in Jeanty and Holani but this UCLA defense is for real. They grade out very well vs the run and they know that it's a freshman QB running the offense which only makes it harder to run and dare Boise to throw the ball. And even without Latu they still have a great pass rush. It does scare me that D’Anton Lynn is gone but confident that the leftover coaching staff can keep it going with this defense. And on the other side for both of these teams I think it's the battle of the “mids”. Neither units have been all that impressive but there will definitely be more talent with this UCLA offense. I tend to think that with Garbers or Collin Schlee they lean on the run which is where Boise struggles more than with the pass. They have the ability to exploit it just whether or not they can match it with their actual execution. There is the wrinkle that Boise has played better down the stretch here and you would like to think that continues with more practice with former HC Avalos gone too. I think with all of that said it I’ll be on another under. I think Boise should struggle to score here without having a formidable QB against a very good defense and this UCLA offense has been less than impressive all year. If UCLA is able to get a lead early and starts running the ball and draining the clock it will help here as well. UCLA has also been a great under team this year so I think they keep it rolling with that trend. And the trend makes sense. The defense has been great and the offense has been very hit or miss.

As for the side. The more I write it up the more I like UCLA. Taylin Green not being in this game may cause a struggle for this Boise offense which is their strength. UCLA hasn’t been great but this Boise defense is no giant killer and has had some crooked numbers put up against them. Wish I got it under the three but this may be another one of those games that I throw in ML parlay.

Bet: Boise State/UCLA U 49.5 -105 Win 1u (BetMGM) (Play down to 48)

Might be worth tuning in to just watch Gronk be Gronk

I know there are only unders and numbers have moved so, I will leave the people with a little #dickpicks ML Parlay to wrap up the blog

ML Parlay +152 Risk .75u (DraftKings)

Ga Southern ML

UCLA ML

Let’s cover some bar tabs today!

-Nick Leone