College Football 2024 Preview: Big 12

Photo by Andy Cross from The Denver Post

Now that Texas and Oklahoma are gone from the Big 12, do you know who the most recent team in the current Big 12 to win a national championship was?

It was Colorado in 1990.

(No, I’m not counting UCF in 2017. Even though I should. They’re just claiming it like every other old college football team claimed it).

But what the Big 12 lacks in “traditional college football blue bloods,” it more than makes up for with fun and unknown possibilities.

If you like college football for college football sake, I promise the Big 12 is the conference to watch this year.

So let’s dive in.

Tier 1: Championship Contenders

Utah Utes

Veteran team? Check, with Cam Rising being a 7th year quarterback.

Well coached? You bet. Kyle Whittingham is one of the best in the game.

Hell, they won 8 games last year in a tough conference with a walk on at quarterback for most of the time.

Utah is primed for a year one conference title.

Kansas State Wildcats

Chris Kleiman just wins.

He won at North Dakota State. He showed up in Manhattan, Kansas and started winning.

It’s what he does.

And this is his most exciting Kansas State team yet, with talented and dynamic quarterback Avery Johnson ready for his first full season at the helm.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

I always feel a bit hesitant with OK State, because the years when I expect a lot from them are usually the years they fall apart.

But there’s good reason this year, as Oklahoma State saved a season that was headed the wrong direction last year by sticking to one quarterback instead of three (what a noble concept) and relying on Ollie Gordon at running back.

Gordon is a Heisman contender this year, and for good reason.

His back half of the season is what led Oklahoma State to huge wins (including one over Oklahoma to hold bragging rights for who knows how long since they aren’t scheduled to face each other in a bit), and taking them to Dallas for the Big 12 Championship Game.

But again, the Cowboys need to deliver this time.

Tier 2: Dark Horses

Kansas Jayhawks

Ho boy.

Get ready for a lot of dark horses in this conference.

We start with Kansas, who should probably be firmly into the championship contenders tier, as they have the best quarterback in the conference in Jalon Daniels, and a great coach in Lance Leipold.

However, Daniels has a severe issue staying healthy, and Kansas has a new offensive coordinator on the staff.

They’ll still be good, and if Daniels can stay healthy, they’ll be easy title contenders.

But that’s a big if.

Arizona Wildcats

Losing a head coach is never easy, especially at a place like Arizona who isn’t normally considered a great football program.

Add in the fact that this is smack in the transfer portal era, where it is very easy to lose talent, and things didn’t look bright for Arizona.

But the Wildcats crucially kept quarterback Noah Fifita, and wide receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Jacob Cowing.

New coach Brent Brennan is set up for quick success, but I can’t put a first year head coach in the championship contenders section.

We just don’t know how it’ll play out.

West Virginia Mountaineers

WVU’s schedule is not easy.

Not by a long shot.

And while the offense was electric last year, the defense definitely showed weaknesses.

But the Mountaineers hit the portal hard to improve the secondary, and their hard schedule crucially works in their favor.

Games against Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and UCF, schools a lot of folks are high on, are all at home.

It’s not likely, but those home games could be the difference in a game or two, and that may take them to Dallas for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Iowa State Cyclones

The Cyclones offense was led by Freshman, and it was really good near the end of the season.

The defense was solid, and should be solid again.

All of that, plus a good coach in Matt Campbell.

Just like West Virginia, the odds aren’t great, and they’re far from a popular pick.

But as I said earlier, this conference is WIDE open.

UCF Knights

I like Gus Malzahn as a coach, and UCF’s defense is fine, but nothing to write home about.

This team solely relies on transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson.

UCF was solid when John Rhys Plumlee led the charge, but when he was hurt is when things went awry.

KJ Jefferson, in a Gus Malzahn offense, should be absolutely stellar.

But he has injury problems of his own, and if he can’t stay healthy, it’ll be another wasted opportunity for the Knights.

I contemplated putting them in tier 3, but the possibility was too good to pass up.

Tier 3: Bowl Game Bound

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Joey McGuire has made bowls in back to back years, recruits well, and has a good squad this upcoming season.

Questions at quarterback keep them from the dark horse tier, but the team and coaching is too good to miss a bowl.

TCU Horned Frogs

Sonny Dykes’ first year in charge went pretty, pretty well, with TCU making the national championship game.

Then, TCU lost a ton of starters, and the Frogs missed bowl season entirely.

Realistically, they’re a team probably smack in the middle of those two extremes, and will be bowl bound in 2024.

Tier 4: Bowl Game Possible

Baylor Bears

Last season was terrible for Dave Aranda, and many expected him to be fired last year.

He wasn’t and now he’s on the hot seat for this year.

But Baylor does have a lot of returning production, and a good recruiting class coming in, all things considered (they ranked 53rd overall, which isn’t top tier, but is not bad for a team who went 3-9 last season).

It’ll be hard, and I’m not sure Dave Aranda works at Baylor, but you never know.

The blueprint is there.

Tier 5: I’d Be Baffled

Colorado Buffaloes

Alright. Let’s just get this one out of the way. I know it’s not popular.

But I don’t like the noise Buffalo made in the offseason.

Their offensive line is new, which is good because last years was bad, but new does not automatically mean better.

I’m not fully sold on Shedeur Sanders at quarterback.

And frankly, I’m not even sold on Deion Sanders as a head coach.

Despite significantly more talent when he was at Jackson State, he lost both Celebration Bowls he made.

Throw everything I just said in with the fact that their schedule is very hard, and I just do not see them winning 6 games this season.

Fox’s Joel Klatt however says he can see them winning 8 or 9 games which….

I don’t know how he possibly sees that.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Louisville and Scott Satterfield did not get along in the slightest.

Many thought he’d be fired outright.

But they didn’t have to fire him, because Cincy decided to give Satterfield a huge bag after Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin.

The results? 3-9 year one, and year two doesn’t look good whatsoever on paper.

Maybe it works out, but I didn’t like Scott Satterfield at Louisville, and I don’t like him at Cincy.

It just doesn’t seem like it works.

BYU Cougars

The first season in the Big 12 didn’t go great for BYU, and now they face a lot of roster turnover on top of it.

Kalani Sitake is a decent coach, but he has quite a battle on his hands to get BYU back to bowl contention.

Houston Cougars

Willie Fritz wins.

He won at Georgia Southern. He won at Tulane.

Odds are, he’s going to win at Houston.

But he builds his squads a certain way, and it’s a slow build.

This won’t be a good year for Houston, but that’s ok.

Or, at least it will be as long as Houston is patient.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State is an absolute mess.

Bad roster. Hampered with sanctions from the NCAA from previous coaching staff scandals.

I like Kenny Dillingham, but man oh man this is a tough rebuild.

Conference Championship Prediction

I won’t lie to you.

I have absolutely no idea.

It could be anyone.

But I trust Chris Klieman. I trust Kyle Whittingham.

I think Utah and Kansas State make it to Dallas, and Cam Rising came back after 2022 to win another title, and ended up not being able to play all year due to injury.

There’s a reason he came back again.

Utah Wins the Big 12