2026 College Football Preview: Big 12

Photo by Julio Cortez from The Associated Press

A few years ago, the new Big 12 seemed to be on the course of a continuous cycle of chaos without Texas and Oklahoma.

Now, it looks like there’s a clear cut number 1, and they are filling the villain role perfectly along with it.

Let’s dive into the Big 12 for the 2026 season.

Better Luck Next Year

Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State’s football history pre Matt Campbell is pretty dire.

But Matt Campbell came to Ames in 2016 and continuously had the Cyclones fighting for bowls, and even fighting for Big 12 titles.

But now, Campbell is gone to Penn State, as are lot of former Cyclones from an 8 win team last year.

In steps Jimmy Rogers from Washington State, and he brings defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit and a few Wazzu transfers along with him, so Iowa State should be in decent shape.

But this is still a tough turn around with harder games than Washington State had last year.

Six wins feels like a tall mountain to climb.

Colorado Buffaloes

Deion’s tenure in Boulder has been an odd one.

A 3-0 start with the entire college football world talking about him in year one, but ended up 4-8 by seasons end.

Year 2 was a massive success, going 9-4 and seeing Travis Hunter lift the Heisman Trophy.

And then, without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, Colorado plummeted back to Earth, going 3-9.

Now, in year 4, Deion is trying to build the Buffaloes in the portal once again, and the question is simply if I trust they can do so.

And there is reason to believe they can.

Julian Lewis is coming into his second year as a former 5 star QB recruit, but was up and down last year, and Deion also didn’t go big game hunting in the portal, but rather took solid players from G6 schools to try and improve the team such as Santana Hopper from Tulane and Ezra Christensen from New Mexico State.

But considering I haven’t seen Colorado just be “fine” under Deion yet, it’s just been boom or bust, I’m betting on bust again.

But I’d love to be wrong.

Bowl Game Bound

UCF Knights

Scott Frost’s first stint started with a 6 win season and he followed that up with a 13-0 season before leaving for Nebraska.

Last year, UCF went 5-7.

So year 2? Maybe 11-1???

No, absolutely not.

But hey, there’s reason for excitement.

JMU transfer QB Alonza Barnett joined UCF instead of following his coach to UCLA, as well as running back Duke Watson from Louisville.

But at the end of the day, the defensive coordinator is still Alex Grinch, and as long as it is, they won’t be good enough to contend for conference titles.

But the offensive improvements should still power them to six wins.

Baylor Bears

I don’t understand Dave Aranda’s tenure at Baylor.

It started terribly, and then in year 2, they won the Big 12 title, and then it got worse.

But then it got better!

And then last year, it got worse again.

But this year, he brings in new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman from Kansas State to try and fix things, and transfer QB DJ Lagway who, by his own words, was not taking care of himself in Florida, but now is in the best shape of his life.

Are those changes enough to get Baylor competing for the conference again.

Maybe?

But most likely, this is just a bowl level team.

And that might not be enough for Aranda to save his job.

Cincinnati Bearcats

I didn’t like the Scott Satterfield hire when it happened, I didn’t like it the first two years, and even last year, the “good” year, they went 7-6.

But it was an improvement over years 1 and 2, so smart money would be on another improvement this year.

Satterfield filled up the roster with smaller school transfers, like QB Liam O’Brien from Penn and RB Cade Wolford from Kent State, but any time both sides of the ball are full of transfers, I feel some worry about how successful it can be.

Usually, it depends on my belief in the coach.

And I don’t have much.

But hey, they’ve improved each year.

So I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

This year.

Arizona State Sun Devils

On the exact opposite of the “coach trust” end, I absolutely love Kenny Dillingham and what he has done at Arizona State.

But last year, the Sun Devils followed up their Big 12 championship season with a “disappointing” 8-5 season that saw lots of turmoil at the QB position with Sam Leavitt leaving the program halfway through the season.

And with Jordyn Tyson gone as well, the Sun Devils will need a fairly large rebuild.

But they nailed some transfers, like former Colorado receiver Omarion Miller and cornerback Ashton Stamps from LSU.

But in the end, we don’t know how their QB is yet.

And if you have more than one QB, you don’t have a QB.

But I still trust Dillingham to get ASU to 6 wins and then some.

Houston Cougars

Willie Fritz wins.

He won at Sam Houston State, he won at Georgia Southern, he won at Tulane, and he won last year in Houston.

Now, in year three, Houston returns key offensive features from a 10 win team last year such as QB Conner Weigman and WR Amare Thomas, as well as key transfers like Ashton Porter from Oregon and De’Marion Thomas from Oklahoma State.

There is a world in which Houston could be in the Big 12 title game.

But unfortunately, as is the way in modern college football, they’re at the hands of their schedule.

Last year, it was kind.

This year, it is pretty tough.

So let’s just expect a bowl, shall we?

Oklahoma State Cowboys

I like when successful G6 schools bring their guys to P4 programs.

Eric Morris comes from North Texas and brings stud QB Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins, and receiver Wyatt Young, among others, with him.

Of course, the competition will be much stiffer than it was in the American, but I have seen this offense, this coach, and this quarterback work.

The Big 12 isn’t full of NFL teams.

Why wouldn’t it work again here?

A bowl game should be the minimum expectation for OSU.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Last year, I said Rich Rodriguez’s offense just works, and it would be up to the defense.

Well, Rich Rod’s offense didn’t work, due in large part to not having a real running threat after Jaheim White and Tye Edwards were injured, and not having a mobile QB to run his spread offense.

Now, the Mountaineers bring in Michael Hawkins Jr. from Oklahoma, a good running QB, and Cam Cook from Jacksonville State, the leading rusher in FBS last year.

So the offense should be better this year from the 4-8 season they had last year.

And if they are, they should go bowling.

Utah Utes

I could talk about the players. I could talk about the transfers. Blah blah blah.

This simply comes down to how well Morgan Scalley, the infamous “coach in waiting” for Kyle Whittingham, will perform in year one on the job after Whittingham left (was forced out of?) Utah.

But Scalley has been in the school, knows the roster, and knows the talent they have. Plus Devon Dampier is likely the best returning Big 12 QB.

So I can’t say Utah will be Big 12 contenders in year one.

But they can go bowling.

They’re good enough for that.

Arizona Wildcats

Brent Brennan had a really tough year in year 1, despite taking over a talented Arizona team with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan.

But in year 2, the Wildcats went 9-4.

Now, with Fifita back in fold once again, Arizona can build off of their 9 win season and maybe compete for the Big 12 title.

However, much like Houston, their conference schedule is very difficult, facing BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas State, TCU, and Utah.

That’s too tall of a mountain to climb.

But they can still go bowling.

Kansas State Wildcats

Chris Klieman’s retirement surprised me, to say the least.

After all, he was very successful at Kansas State, and is only 58 years old.

But he felt it was time, and in steps his former offensive coordinator, and K State legend, Collin Klein comes in as head coach after one year of being Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator.

And the biggest beneficiary is QB Avery Johnson, who was excellent his first two years with the Wildcats under Klein, but struggled mightily last year (while A&M QB Marcel Reed thrived).

Now, with Klein back, Johnson should be able to get back to what he was early in his college career.

They should be good, but there’s still a bit of turnover and turmoil to pick them as contenders just yet.

TCU Horned Frogs

In last season’s Big 12 preview, I pointed out that TCU won 9 games, and you’d never know it because fans were upset they weren’t what they were in Sonny Dykes first year, which was national runners up.

And last year, there was still some animosity towards Dykes and TCU after some tough losses.

But at the end of the day, they went 9-4 again!

The last time TCU had back to back 9 win seasons was under Gary Patterson in 2014 and 2015.

This time, though, I do understand some of the frustrations.

Josh Hoover is gone, now the QB of reigning national champions Indiana, but the running game should be great with Jeremy Payne coming back, making life easier for new transfer QB Jaden Craig.

I still think TCU is going bowling, but I don’t think they’ll hit 9 wins.

The question is, does TCU listen to fan noise and make a change if a bowl is all they accomplish.

Kansas Jayhawks

Remember when it looked like Lance Leipold might have the Jayhawks consistently competing for conference titles?

After all, the turnaround was extremely fast from being a disaster, and Jalon Daniels looked like a stud.

But a few Daniels injuries later, and the Jayhawks are coming off of back to back 5-7 seasons and no bowl appearances.

But, after two years at Penn State, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki comes back in hopes to turn around the Jayhawks offense, and he has a good cast around him to make that happen, such as Kansas State transfer running back Dylan Edwards.

The issue is the quarterback.

Kansas has three possible options which, as I mentioned earlier with Arizona State, if you have multiple QBs, you don’t have one.

But I do trust that whoever Leipold and Kotelnicki pick between the bunch, they’ll be able to run the offense at a sustainable level to go bowling.

Dark Horses

BYU Cougars

The biggest win of the offseason belongs to BYU and Crumbl Cookies (the CEO is a BYU alum), who sat down head coach Kalani Sitake after it looked like he was headed to Penn State and convinced him to stay and remain at BYU.

And now, with Bear Bachmeier, LJ Martin, most of their offensive line returning, and most of the defense returning, BYU can once again make another run at the Big 12 title.

They have a tall mountain to climb considering the team we’re about to talk to, but they have a great roster, a great coach, and solid funding going forward to continue to be threats for the conference title.

The Favorites

Texas Tech Red Raiders

It was Leonardo Dicaprio in “The Wolf of Wall Street” who said “When you sail on a boat fit for a Bond villain, sometimes you need to play the part.”

Tech is rich.

Mega rich.

And they are using that wealth to get the clear cut best team in the Big 12, and have spent all offseason making other fans mad, whether it be the Brendan Sorsby situation, or fans demanding they leave the Big 12 and go to a conference where they will be “more respected”.

You might think they’re right.

You might think they’re wrong.

But frankly, it doesn’t matter what you think.

All that matters on the field is that Texas Tech is really, really good.

And even though Brendan Sorsby will not be playing for Tech this year, and the QB spot is up in the air, it really doesn’t matter.

The receiver group is stacked, with Kenny Johnson from Pitt and Malcolm Simmons from Auburn, the running back room returns both starters, and the defense, despite losing some key talent, brings in boat loads of high end transfers to fill those gaps, bringing in the number 6 transfer class in the country.

Tech is the favorite, and will likely continue to be for the foreseeable future.

You don’t have to like it.

They don’t care if you do, anyway.