2025 College Football Preview: Big 12

Photo from TCU Athletics

Last year, we expected that the Big 12 would be the most unpredictable power conference in football.

And boy, was it ever?

And 2025 doesn’t seem like it will be too different.

So a lot of what I’m about to write might end up being dead wrong.

And that is fine by me.

Tier 1: Title Contenders

Arizona State Sun Devils

We begin with last years Big 12 champions.

ASU loses Cam Skattebo, which is a big loss. Skattebo was the bell cow back of the nation last year, and a huge part of ASU’s offensive firepower.

But Sam Leavitt remains at QB, and keeps his main weapons.

The passing game should be excellent, the running game should be fine, and the defense is solid.

Crucially, the Sun Devils return a lot of starters.

And they’re doing this while still under probation for the previous staff’s recruiting violations!

Kenny Dillingham is doing such an incredible job.

Kansas State Wildcats

I think a lot of people expected more from K-State last season.

Avery Johnson burst on the scene hot as a freshman, and had a mixed bag as a sophomore, which was a key factor in the Wildcats falling short of Dallas and the Big 12 title game.

But Johnson was still a true sophomore, so he should keep improving.

And when you have Chris Kleiman at the helm, a coach who has won 9 games in each of the last three years, your team is going to be battling for the conference title in this era of the Big 12.

Iowa State Cyclones

This is year 10 of Matt Campbell at Iowa State.

It should not be forgotten not only what an incredible job he has done at a historically poor football program, and also not forgotten that he has stayed at Ames during that era.

The defense will need to fill some holes, and Rocco Becht is going to have new receivers he’ll have to get comfortable with, but the run game and offensive line remains stable, as does the overall coaching staff.

Is this the year they finally break the title drought?

Tier 2: Dark Horses

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech might just be the most talented team in the conference, and Joey McGuire has proven himself as a solid coach.

Tech hit the portal in a huge way on the offensive and defensive line, and they’ve been very open about how much money they spent to do so.

And that’s all well and good.

But they also replace both coordinators, and they splashed the cash last year en route to an 8-5 season.

So while the roster is intriguing, there’s no guarantee it works out.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

Utah Utes

Do you think Utah will have another 5-7 season under Kyle Whittingham?

You might, and if you do that’s your business.

But far be it from me to count out a Utah team that has been consistently good under Whittingham just because they had one bad year with lots of quarterback issues.

The defense will be good, as it often is.

The offensive line will be good, as it often is.

It all depends on the quarterback play, and it should be improved.

Don’t be surprised if you look up in November and Utah is in play for the title.

Baylor Bears

Baylor is another school, like Texas Tech, that splashed the cash this offseason to improve the roster.

Sawyer Robertson thrived the back half of the season, and while Baylor’s defense was really, really rough, Dave Aranda is a smart defensive mind.

His coaching with the new portal additions on the defensive side of the ball, could be the turnaround needed for Baylor to thrive.

TCU Horned Frogs

Want to know something interesting while I was researching these schools?

TCU won 9 games last year.

After they got blown out in the 2022-2023 National Championship game, and had a very rough 2023 regular season in return, it feels like they flew under the radar in a massive way last season.

But the Frogs went 9-4, and heading into year 4 of Sonny Dykes, have some stability and a roster that fits Dykes as opposed to what Gary Patterson left him and some transfers to fill the gaps.

But while the offense should be great, this falls on the defense.

If they can replace some key pieces, they’ll be threats.

If not, it may be another year on the outside looking in of the Big 12 title.

BYU Cougars

BYU was a surprise last year in the Big 12.

In fact, they might have been one of the biggest if Arizona State didn’t do what they did.

And BYU comes into 2025 with another very solid roster.

The problem is, quarterback Jake Retzlaff is gone, and we don’t know who the QB will be.

But while Retzlaff had some big games last year, he was actually 11th in QBR for Big 12 quarterbacks last year.

So BYU, if they pick the right QB from their bunch of transfers, they shouldn’t skip a beat.

Oklahoma State

Ok. I know what you’re thinking.

“Oklahoma State was terrible last season, their roster is bad, and they have two new coordinators.

How can they be dark horses?”

And you’re probably correct.

If I was forced to put money on what I think Oklahoma State would be this year, I would say they’ll be very bad.

But there are years where Oklahoma State looks hopeless, and they become contenders (10-4 in 2023). Then they spend all offseason being conference favorites, and fall flat on their faces (3-9).

So yeah. They’ll probably be bad.

Or maybe every single thing will click and they’ll be back in Dallas.

I just have no clue.

Tier 3: Bowl Game Bound?

Houston Cougars

Defense, defense, defense.

That’s what Houston was last year.

And while a great defense one year can sometimes lead to a regression the next year, the offense is Willie Fritz’s specialty.

With Connor Weigman coming in from Texas A&M, Houston’s offense should improve enough where a defensive regression, if there even is one, shouldn’t hurt too much.

A two win improvement from last year shouldn’t stun anyone.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Rich Rod’s offense works.

It worked at WVU in his first stint there, it worked Arizona, it worked at Jacksonville State, and even though his Michigan tenure was a massive let down overall, the offense clicked with Denard Robinson.

So the offense, spearheaded by running back Jaheim White, should be good.

The question is the defense, as new defensive coordinator Zac Alley not only has lots of holes to fill, but an expectation to turn the defense around from what it was in recent years.

If he does, WVU should hit 6 wins easily.

If not, let’s hope that offense clicks quickly.

Kansas Jayhawks

Jalon Daniels just needs to stay healthy.

Those injury issues, and his struggles under new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, meant Kansas struggled to build off of 2023.

Now, Daniels has another new offensive coordinator in Jim Zebrowski, but Zebrowski was Daniels QB coach for his entire career at Kansas.

He knows how to make Daniels tick.

And he needs to if Kansas wants to go bowling again.

Arizona Wildcats

Lots of people were sold on Arizona last year.

I wasn’t.

There was no way Arizona wouldn’t take a step back after losing Jedd Fisch to Washington and getting Brent Brennan from San Jose State.

Now, I feel people are going too far in the opposite direction.

Brennan is a good coach, and Arizona still has Noah Fifita who is excellent at QB.

But the defense last season was dreadful, and needs to be better.

I expect it will be.

Frankly, it’s hard for it to be worse.

Colorado Buffaloes

Year one of the Coach Prime experience in Boulder did not go well.

Year two started really, really poorly, as the Buffs almost lost to North Dakota State, and then got their doors blown off by Nebraska.

But then, after a Hail Mary saved their season against Baylor, Colorado turned it around and almost made the Big 12 title game.

But that was last year. This is this year.

Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are gone.

And while Kaidon Salter comes from Liberty, he works very well in a run centric offense.

Colorado’s run game the past two seasons has been…not great.

So we’ll see, but I predict a slight slide back for Colorado.

UCF Knights

WVU isn’t the only one bringing back a classic coach, as UCF welcomes back Scott Frost who takes over for former UCF coach Gus Malzahn.

And while Frost flamed out at previous stops, he has a chance to bring UCF back to former glory, and will do so with an almost entirely new roster.

Which is probably a good thing, because UCF was not good last year.

Frost knows how to win in Orlando, and the portal additions are exciting.

It should be fun if nothing else!

Cincinnati Bearcats

I didn’t understand the Scott Satterfield signing when Luke Fickell left.

Frankly, I still don’t.

But the Bearcats got better in year two under Satterfield, and this team has talent around him.

Another leap forward isn’t crazy.

Tier 4: Better Luck Next Year

Nobody

Two years ago, West Virginia was picked to finish dead last in the Big 12. They went 9-4.

Last year, Arizona State was picked to finish dead last in the Big 12. They won the damn conference.

This conference is a gigantic question mark, and none of these 16 teams have glaring issues that make it clear they will miss bowl season.

Now, some of them obviously will. There’s no way all 16 go bowling.

But there is no clear cut way to tell who that will be before the season begins.

Just sit back, and enjoy the ride.