2022 Big 10 Predictions
Photo by Brett Carlsen from Getty Images
The Big 10 typically stays the same year after year.
The East has powerhouses who will always be dominant and expected to win the conference, while the West will remain a gigantic crapshoot where nobody has a clue what will happen.
So let’s just deal with the inevitable from the start.
Big 10 East
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State lost some receivers, and that’s about it.
CJ Stroud returns. Most of the defense returns. Ryan Day is still the coach, and Ohio State just continues to pump out receivers like it’s nobodies business.
They’ll be more than fine.
2. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is still good, but you can’t lose two insanely good edge rushers like Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo and be as good as you were previously.
Add that with Ohio State headed towards a dominant season, and Michigan simply has to end up 2nd.
3. Michigan State Spartans
To be honest, I don’t have a ton to say about Michigan State.
They’re a talented and well coached team, and I slightly considered them to finish a spot lower due to losing talent like Kenneth Walker and the fact that big contracts to coaches at not “big name programs” typically come with a year of concerning results that make you wonder if it was actually worth it.
Mel Tucker is worth it, even if this is a slight step back for the Spartans as opposed to last year.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
This is who I considered at 3rd ahead of Michigan State, but I’ll believe their offensive issues are fixed when I see it.
Until then, I couldn’t pull myself to put them ahead of Michigan State.
5. Rutgers Scarlett Knights
Now this could be controversial in my neck of the woods, but hear me out.
Actually, we’ll deal with Maryland in a second.
As I said yesterday in my AAC preview, I like teams trending upward.
Greg Schiano had Rutgers playing really good football in the mid 2000s before he left for the NFL. When that happened, Rutgers completely fell apart to a laughable extent.
But now Schiano is back, and in the two years since he returned Rutgers have gone 8-14, which isn’t tremendous, but considering their past is actually pretty good.
I’m not expecting a miracle here. They might win 6 games, they might not. Who knows?
But I have them ahead of Maryland.
6. Maryland Terrapins
And here’s why.
Maryland, continuously, starts hot and then falls apart.
Maryland’s defense last year was 88th in points per drive, and they lost their best players on that defense that wasn’t very good.
Then you add in the fact that they got a brutal schedule draw, not just with being in the Big 10 East, but having to play Purdue and Wisconsin from the West this year as well as SMU in a non conference game.
It is entirely possible that in year 4 of the Mike Locksley era with the best QB he’s had and two NFL caliber receivers, this team could go 4-8 or 5-7.
There’s no reason to panic by it. Sometimes you’re going to get schedule draws that suck.
This just happens to be one.
7. Indiana Hoosiers
I still remember the very good Indiana team from 2020.
I also remember that same team had high expectations last year and ended up being horrible.
Considering the past of Indiana football, I know which one I believe to be true.
Big 10 West
1. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Row the boat, baby!
This is the year that PJ Fleck gets his Gophers to Indianapolis.
Minnesota’s 2019 season was awesome to watch, and now they’re getting the band back together with Kirk Ciarrocca returning as offensive coordinator and Super Senior Tanner Morgan at quarterback.
Add in a defense ranked 9th in SP+, and this should be a fun year in Minneapolis.
2. Wisconsin Badgers
I love Wisconsin. They’re my guilty pleasure team in all sports.
I can’t count how many times I’ve picked Wisconsin basketball to go far in the NCAA tournament.
And I’m no different with football, but I can’t get over their quarterback issues.
Maybe Graham Mertz takes the leap to become a really good QB this year, but I’m not betting on it until I see it.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers
This is probably stupid, but I don’t care.
Nebraska was so unlucky last year with one score losses, and benefited from Pitt being stupid and moving on from offensive coordinator Mark Whipple who turned Kenny Pickett into a Heisman candidate.
The stars are aligning. This should be an exciting year at Nebraska where they are actually quite a good team.
Which definitely means they will still underperform.
4. Purdue Boilermakers
As I’m typing this, I realize I have Homefield stuff from the top 4 schools I’ve listed so far.
I love the Big 10 West.
Anyway, Purdue will be what Purdue always is under Jeff Brohm.
They’ll be good but not quite good enough and likely upset someone they have no business beating.
Looking at their schedule, my guess is Wisconsin.
5. Northwestern Wildcats
If there’s one thing I know about Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats, it’s that they will not do the same thing two years in a row.
2019 they were awful. Then in 2020 they were really good! But in 2021 they went right back to awful.
A winning record and 5th sounds right.
6. Iowa Hawkeyes
The defense is amazing.
The offense makes me wish I could scoop my eyes out with spoons.
Sit in 6th where you belong, you boring birds.
7. Illinois Fighting Illini
This is what I love about the Big 10 West.
Illinois could easily finish higher than 7th. We really just have no idea.
But someone has to finish last, and I already listed everyone else.
So here you go, Illinois. Sorry.
Big 10 Championship Prediction
My Big 10 title game pits Ohio State vs Minnesota, and let’s not waste too much time here.
There are only two schools this year who I think will breeze their way to the title game.
One of them is one we’ll get to later (you can probably guess who) and the other is Ohio State.
Ohio State wins the Big 10.
The conference predictions return on Monday with the Big 12, where I will unbiasedly explain why J.T. Daniels is leading West Virginia to a Joe Burrow style national championship season.
